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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 9, 2024 23:18:32 GMT -5
Couple of ideas, one inside the box and one outside.
When Verdugo was traded, seemed like swapping him and Torres was the hot rumor. Could the Sox circle back on Gleyber?
A lot of hoops to jump through, but I wonder if the Yankees are looking to dump Rodon? Does Bailey think he’s fixable? They have history and the Sox have eaten a Yankees contract before, albeit not with Breslow. 4/108m left after the season. 4 is a lot… but if they ate like $60m… maybe? Super unlikely and probably more of an offseason idea
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Post by bettsonmookie on Jul 9, 2024 23:28:57 GMT -5
What are your thoughts on the following SP trade targets (more realistic to target in offseason)
Zac Gallen (signed thru ‘25)
Sandy Alcantara (signed thru ‘26 w/ team option for ‘27, returning from TJ)
I would imagine both clubs would enjoy the long-term cost controllability the Sox could offer in a prospect package, and their respective contracts do not particularly align with their clubs’ competitive timelines.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 9, 2024 23:29:46 GMT -5
Couple of ideas, one inside the box and one outside. When Verdugo was traded, seemed like swapping him and Torres was the hot rumor. Could the Sox circle back on Gleyber? A lot of hoops to jump through, but I wonder if the Yankees are looking to dump Rodon? Does Bailey think he’s fixable? They have history and the Sox have eaten a Yankees contract before, albeit not with Breslow. 4/108m left after the season. 4 is a lot… but if they ate like $60m… maybe? Super unlikely and probably more of an offseason idea I think MFY will be looking to add, not subtract.
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asm18
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Posts: 2,476
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Post by asm18 on Jul 9, 2024 23:48:51 GMT -5
Couple of ideas, one inside the box and one outside. When Verdugo was traded, seemed like swapping him and Torres was the hot rumor. Could the Sox circle back on Gleyber? A lot of hoops to jump through, but I wonder if the Yankees are looking to dump Rodon? Does Bailey think he’s fixable? They have history and the Sox have eaten a Yankees contract before, albeit not with Breslow. 4/108m left after the season. 4 is a lot… but if they ate like $60m… maybe? Super unlikely and probably more of an offseason idea I respect the outside-the-box thinking - in this case I imagine the Yankees would be overly thrilled to do it because both have been quite bad. Torres is having the walk year from Hell, and Rodon’s contract is heading towards Albatross Island (if it’s not there already.) Torres in particular I could imagine benefitting from a change of scenery - but I just couldn’t imagine us being that team at the moment. You’d really be doing the Yankees a favor
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 10, 2024 0:10:18 GMT -5
Couple of ideas, one inside the box and one outside. When Verdugo was traded, seemed like swapping him and Torres was the hot rumor. Could the Sox circle back on Gleyber? A lot of hoops to jump through, but I wonder if the Yankees are looking to dump Rodon? Does Bailey think he’s fixable? They have history and the Sox have eaten a Yankees contract before, albeit not with Breslow. 4/108m left after the season. 4 is a lot… but if they ate like $60m… maybe? Super unlikely and probably more of an offseason idea I respect the outside-the-box thinking - in this case I imagine the Yankees would be overly thrilled to do it because both have been quite bad. Torres is having the walk year from Hell, and Rodon’s contract is heading towards Albatross Island (if it’s not there already.) Torres in particular I could imagine benefitting from a change of scenery - but I just couldn’t imagine us being that team at the moment. You’d really be doing the Yankees a favor Yeah, we’d be doing the Yankees a HUGE favor by doing this. If the last month has shown us anything, both of them are cooked.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 10, 2024 0:19:31 GMT -5
I saw a couple of Tweets today throwing around a couple trade ideas I thought would be interesting:
Scenario 1:
Randy Arozarena Eric Fedde
Scenario 2:
Jameson Taillon Seiya Suzuki
I’m more for scenario two. Taillon is AL East tested and has a good track record of giving you quality innings as #4/5 SP. Suzuki would give you a solid RH OF bat that you can also slot into DH. Both are signed til the end of 2026 and obviously there is the Breslow connection with the Cubs.
Scenario one seems a little unrealistic. I don’t think Tampa will trade Randy within the division and even if they would, they’d ask a much steeper prospect price. Eric Fedde does seem reasonable and low risk, but I worry about him performing in a market like Boston.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 10, 2024 7:41:34 GMT -5
Cubs are in a weird spot, they’ve been bad but all of their good players are controlled for a couple more seasons. I wouldn’t be surprised if they just stand pat and try to fill their holes in the offseason.
If they did want to move someone Nico Hoerner or Justin Steele would be great, but they won’t trade them
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asm18
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Posts: 2,476
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Post by asm18 on Jul 10, 2024 7:51:06 GMT -5
Taillon has 2 years 36 mil (18 mil AAV) left on his deal after this year for his age 33 and 34 seasons. Spotrac also reports that he has a 10-team no-trade clause annually and that “Team can defer $10M of 2026 salary if he suffers a right elbow injury in 2025.” He seems perfectly fine - maybe he’s effectively the Giolito replacement they never went out and got - but I guess you gotta wonder if the Sox are okay with taking on that deal in a trade. A deal, it should be noted, that Breslow was apparently instrumental in helping the Cubs complete: www.nytimes.com/athletic/5072351/2023/11/20/craig-breslow-free-agency-blueprint/?source=user_shared_article
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Post by pappyman99 on Jul 10, 2024 8:50:01 GMT -5
Cubs are in a weird spot, they’ve been bad but all of their good players are controlled for a couple more seasons. I wouldn’t be surprised if they just stand pat and try to fill their holes in the offseason. If they did want to move someone Nico Hoerner or Justin Steele would be great, but they won’t trade them Nico Hoerner is an interesting name. Can’t rule out that he would be available at all.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 10, 2024 8:55:39 GMT -5
What would Hoerner really add? wRC+ of 94 this year, 102 last year. Good fielder but doesn't really seem all that worthwhile of a target for the Sox. He also just signed an extension for three years at 11.5M a year for 3 years so doesn't really seem like someone the Cubs should want to trade right now. They aren't all that far off from being a competitive team.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 10, 2024 9:12:51 GMT -5
What would Hoerner really add? wRC+ of 94 this year, 102 last year. Good fielder but doesn't really seem all that worthwhile of a target for the Sox. He also just signed an extension for three years at 11.5M a year for 3 years so doesn't really seem like someone the Cubs should want to trade right now. They aren't all that far off from being a competitive team. Plus he's entirely redundant with Story so has little value to the Sox after this season, and for this season he represents only a marginal upgrade over the players they already have so if he were to get traded it's hard to believe that another team wouldn't be willing to pay a higher price than the Red Sox would.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 10, 2024 9:20:33 GMT -5
I think you guys are really underrating Hoerner he’s been a 4ish win player for a few years now. He’s just someone good at everything, good defender, decent hitter, good baserunner. He’s a much surer proposition than anyone they have in the infield going forward including Story and probably would add like two wins to their projection next year. I’d be thrilled if Mayer is as good a player as Hoerner.
It’s all moot because he’s not getting traded, but I’d be happy to bring him in and trade away some of their MI depth. Figure out what you do with a healthy Story in the offseason.
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asm18
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Posts: 2,476
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Post by asm18 on Jul 10, 2024 9:30:33 GMT -5
Danny Jansen, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier and Kikuchi are their rentals
Would it surprise anyone to learn that Isaiah Kiner-Falefa is currently their leader in WAR? (2.0 fWAR, 3.0 bWAR)
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Post by incandenza on Jul 10, 2024 9:34:11 GMT -5
I think you guys are really underrating Hoerner he’s been a 4ish win player for a few years now. He’s just someone good at everything, good defender, decent hitter, good baserunner. He’s a much surer proposition than anyone they have in the infield going forward including Story and probably would add like two wins to their projection next year. I’d be thrilled if Mayer is as good a player as Hoerner. It’s all moot because he’s not getting traded, but I’d be happy to bring him in and trade away some of their MI depth. Figure out what you do with a healthy Story in the offseason. He's an excellent defender, an average hitter, and a really good all-around player, I don't deny it. (Maybe I understated it in my earlier comment.) The question is how does he fit for this team? He could replace Story, but realistically that means dumping Story and eating a bunch of his salary, maybe $50 million of it. So now you're effectively spending $70 million for 2.5 years of Hoerner. And for all that you're not really filling a *hole* in the roster; you're upgrading on the bevy of 2 WAR players (Hamilton/Valdez/Grissom) and prospects (Mayer/Yorke/Meidroth).
The alternative would be to keep Story and Hoerner, in which case where does Mayer play? And trading away all that middle infield depth means weakening the team after Hoerner leaves post-2026.
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Post by chaimtime on Jul 10, 2024 9:34:23 GMT -5
Nico Hoerner has been a 4+ WAR/600 PA player for three years now. He’s having a down year with his .269 BABIP, but he would be the best second baseman the Red Sox have had since Pedroia was healthy.
He’s not the most exciting player, and the redundancies with Story are worth considering, but you don’t need to think very hard about it to see what he’d offer. If he got his BABIP back up around .300, he’d be one of the most valuable players on the team. Plus speed, plus hit, and plus-to-better middle infield defense makes for a very useful player.
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briam
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Post by briam on Jul 10, 2024 9:39:12 GMT -5
Curious what type of player Wilyer could fetch. With Ceddane being locked up and Duran taking the leap, he seems to be the odd man out once Campbell/Anthony are ready.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 10, 2024 9:41:05 GMT -5
I think you guys are really underrating Hoerner he’s been a 4ish win player for a few years now. He’s just someone good at everything, good defender, decent hitter, good baserunner. He’s a much surer proposition than anyone they have in the infield going forward including Story and probably would add like two wins to their projection next year. I’d be thrilled if Mayer is as good a player as Hoerner. It’s all moot because he’s not getting traded, but I’d be happy to bring him in and trade away some of their MI depth. Figure out what you do with a healthy Story in the offseason. He's an excellent defender, an average hitter, and a really good all-around player, I don't deny it. (Maybe I understated it in my earlier comment.) The question is how does he fit for this team? He could replace Story, but realistically that means dumping Story and eating a bunch of his salary, maybe $50 million of it. So now you're effectively spending $70 million for 2.5 years of Hoerner. And for all that you're not really filling a *hole* in the roster; you're upgrading on the bevy of 2 WAR players (Hamilton/Valdez/Grissom) and prospects (Mayer/Yorke/Meidroth).
The alternative would be to keep Story and Hoerner, in which case where does Mayer play? And trading away all that middle infield depth means weakening the team after Hoerner leaves post-2026.
Hypothetically you could start Mayer in AAA, Hamilton on the bench. If Story and Hoerner are still both healthy and performing by the time June rolls around you could trade one of them then.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 10, 2024 9:53:11 GMT -5
He's an excellent defender, an average hitter, and a really good all-around player, I don't deny it. (Maybe I understated it in my earlier comment.) The question is how does he fit for this team? He could replace Story, but realistically that means dumping Story and eating a bunch of his salary, maybe $50 million of it. So now you're effectively spending $70 million for 2.5 years of Hoerner. And for all that you're not really filling a *hole* in the roster; you're upgrading on the bevy of 2 WAR players (Hamilton/Valdez/Grissom) and prospects (Mayer/Yorke/Meidroth).
The alternative would be to keep Story and Hoerner, in which case where does Mayer play? And trading away all that middle infield depth means weakening the team after Hoerner leaves post-2026.
Hypothetically you could start Mayer in AAA, Hamilton on the bench. If Story and Hoerner are still both healthy and performing by the time June rolls around you could trade one of them then. Is Grissom out of the picture in this scenario? I hope they're not trading him when his value is at a nadir.
I guess I should also say, what are you giving up for Hoerner? If Hoerner is what you hope Mayer would turn into, perhaps the cost for Hoerner would be... Mayer? It's gotta be one of the big three (or four), right? So then if they are trading either Story or Hoerner at next year's deadline (uh oh - is this the dreaded buy+sell scenario that Breslow has seemingly ruled out?) you're paying a heavy prospect price only to end up in the scenario above, where you're eating a ton of Story's salary to dump him. Or else you're trading Hoerner away again after only one year when his value will have declined considerably.
Whatever the cost is, my main point is that it would be spent not to fill a replacement-level hole but to improve on the surplus of league-average options they already have. It just doesn't seem like an efficient use of resources, both in terms of salary and prospect value.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 10, 2024 9:59:16 GMT -5
Hypothetically you could start Mayer in AAA, Hamilton on the bench. If Story and Hoerner are still both healthy and performing by the time June rolls around you could trade one of them then. Is Grissom out of the picture in this scenario? I hope they're not trading him when his value is at a nadir.
I guess I should also say, what are you giving up for Hoerner? If Hoerner is what you hope Mayer would turn into, perhaps the cost for Hoerner would be... Mayer? It's gotta be one of the big three (or four), right? So then if they are trading either Story or Hoerner at next year's deadline (uh oh - is this the dreaded buy+sell scenario that Breslow has seemingly ruled out?) you're paying a heavy prospect price only to end up in the scenario above, where you're eating a ton of Story's salary to dump him. Or else you're trading Hoerner away again after only one year when his value will have declined considerably.
Whatever the cost is, my main point is that it would be spent not to fill a replacement-level hole but to improve on the surplus of league-average options they already have. It just doesn't seem like an efficient use of resources, both in terms of salary and prospect value.
Grissom can be in AAA too or traded. With Story I don’t feel like you lose much by playing him, if he’s good maybe you don’t need to eat much of his contract, if he isn’t well you probably need to eat the same amount of the contract as you do if you trade him in the offseason. The Red Sox need to find a way to get more 4 win players on the roster. I don’t mind if they need to do some aggressive shuffling to get there. I’m one of the bigger Story defenders here and I could be convinced that if you bring in Hoerner and dump Story in the offseason that’s reasonable. The team is good now, and their cap is in a good spot, do they really need to try and recoup some value for Story? Maybe it would make sense to trade some value to get a surer thing - Hoerner gives you the performance you hope to get from him, but haven’t in three years because he keeps getting hurt. Although I think we’ve reached the point where we’re spending too much time discussing a player who I think we both agree is not getting traded anyways.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 10, 2024 10:31:21 GMT -5
Is Grissom out of the picture in this scenario? I hope they're not trading him when his value is at a nadir.
I guess I should also say, what are you giving up for Hoerner? If Hoerner is what you hope Mayer would turn into, perhaps the cost for Hoerner would be... Mayer? It's gotta be one of the big three (or four), right? So then if they are trading either Story or Hoerner at next year's deadline (uh oh - is this the dreaded buy+sell scenario that Breslow has seemingly ruled out?) you're paying a heavy prospect price only to end up in the scenario above, where you're eating a ton of Story's salary to dump him. Or else you're trading Hoerner away again after only one year when his value will have declined considerably.
Whatever the cost is, my main point is that it would be spent not to fill a replacement-level hole but to improve on the surplus of league-average options they already have. It just doesn't seem like an efficient use of resources, both in terms of salary and prospect value.
Grissom can be in AAA too or traded. With Story I don’t feel like you lose much by playing him, if he’s good maybe you don’t need to eat much of his contract, if he isn’t well you probably need to eat the same amount of the contract as you do if you trade him in the offseason. The Red Sox need to find a way to get more 4 win players on the roster. I don’t mind if they need to do some aggressive shuffling to get there. I’m one of the bigger Story defenders here and I could be convinced that if you bring in Hoerner and dump Story in the offseason that’s reasonable. The team is good now, and their cap is in a good spot, do they really need to try and recoup some value for Story? Maybe it would make sense to trade some value to get a surer thing - Hoerner gives you the performance you hope to get from him, but haven’t in three years because he keeps getting hurt. Although I think we’ve reached the point where we’re spending too much time discussing a player who I think we both agree is not getting traded anyways.Probably so. But it's an interesting point: do they need to add more 4 win players? If so, how should they do it?
Their 2024 bevy of 4 WAR players is Devers, Duran, and Houck. (Crawford and O'Neill have an outside chance of getting there.)
I think Casas can get there when healthy. That's 4 guys who have a good shot at being 4 WAR players next season (with a marginal chance for Abreu, Crawford, Hamilton, Rafaela, Grissom, and one or two others).
Hoerner's 2025 and 2026 ZiPS projections coming into this season were 3.6 and 3.3 WAR. It wouldn't take that much overperformance to get to 4 WAR. But those projections also aren't that much higher than Hamilton's and Grissom's - who themselves have some chance at blossoming into 4 WAR players.
I still just don't see anywhere on the position player side that they can make substantial additions in an efficient way. And it's also on the position player side that they have a bunch of high-ceiling MLB-imminent prospects - the kind that might turn into 4 WAR players. So it just seems clear to me that the high-end talent they should add has to be pitching. I.e., Burnes or Fried, or a trade target.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 10, 2024 10:38:59 GMT -5
I agree they should prioritize pitching. That said I think at some point if the team is good and there are no obvious holes and you want to improve and have a surplus of talent in some areas (as they do in OF and MI), you have to be okay with improving in a way that isn’t perfectly value-efficient in a vacuum.
Add: In the Hoerner example, say he's a 3.5-4 win player for 2025. Hamilton, Valdez, Mayer, Grissom, Story, etc. are all going to project as like 2ish win players. Yes they all have some chance of outperforming that, but if you go into the season as a likely playoff team, I think it's worth giving up some trade value for some certainty, and there aren't many players you could add that are like a 2 win improvement.
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Post by melvinhoggs on Jul 10, 2024 10:58:07 GMT -5
I agree they should prioritize pitching. That said I think at some point if the team is good and there are no obvious holes and you want to improve and have a surplus of talent in some areas (as they do in OF and MI), you have to be okay with improving in a way that isn’t perfectly value-efficient in a vacuum. Add: In the Hoerner example, say he's a 3.5-4 win player for 2025. Hamilton, Valdez, Mayer, Grissom, Story, etc. are all going to project as like 2ish win players. Yes they all have some chance of outperforming that, but if you go into the season as a likely playoff team, I think it's worth giving up some trade value for some certainty, and there aren't many players you could add that are like a 2 win improvement. In seeing some previous trade discussion and now the Hoerner one, I think a lot of people just aren't very bullish on the current MI group. Hamilton has come back down to earth, Valdez's success at the major league level has only come in minuscule sample sizes and Story/Grissom have been bad and/or not playing. It's very easy to look at this group and not see a supposed surplus of league-average options, especially if you want to improve this season (where Story is out completely, the prospects aren't ready and Grissom's availability is in question). I'm not saying one would be wrong for believing in those guys, but in the abstract I think some people are seeing like a 1-1.5 to 4 WAR upgrade where others are seeing a 2.5-3 to 4 WAR upgrade.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jul 10, 2024 12:15:29 GMT -5
Pure speculation
But do the Cubs consider a Hamilton, Abreu, Lugo trade for Hoerner and Happ?
And does that a net improvement? I mean we get better more Expensive players, but we are also trading extremely expendable players when looking at the long term
This is a very improve now while protecting the future move, but the downside is this isn’t an SP move
*would probably need an additional spec in the above
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 10, 2024 12:29:44 GMT -5
Curious what type of player Wilyer could fetch. With Ceddane being locked up and Duran taking the leap, he seems to be the odd man out once Campbell/Anthony are ready. He's a platoon OFer, who wasn't a top prospect and doesn't have a big power or speed profile; so probably less than we'd like. But I think this is a 2025-2026 question, so things could change.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 10, 2024 12:31:23 GMT -5
Pure speculation But do the Cubs consider a Hamilton, Abreu, Lugo trade for Hoerner and Happ? And does that a net improvement? I mean we get better more Expensive players, but we are also trading extremely expendable players when looking at the long term This is a very improve now while protecting the future move, but the downside is this isn’t an SP move Seems like a meager upgrade for the cost of $30M+ extra on the LT to me.
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