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Post by dillard on Jul 23, 2024 11:07:11 GMT -5
Sure looks like Breslow is going to be in the same bind Chaim was the last couple years--improvements via trades will be too marginal or costly in prospects and selling may bring a disappointing prospect haul. Chaim's downfall was supposedly not picking a lane at trade deadline. I expect Breslow is looking at the same highway that is rapidly narrowing in both directions.
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Post by rhswanzey on Jul 23, 2024 11:13:42 GMT -5
I don't care about the Wild Card. That just gets you to the dance. Then what? Plough through the rest to get to the WS? Do you honestly think that could happen? With this pitching? It would be a mistake to give up some good future players for a chance to get into the playoffs, when there is virtually no way we go all the way. But, next year with all the studs in the system, that could happen. Sell a few pieces for some good minor league pitchers that can carry us far into the future. Then you'll have a team that is favored to win the Series every year. That's what I want. I don't want to be a Wild Card team. I want to be a Division leader every year. They literally won 26 consecutive games when scoring five runs or more, a streak that ended in LA without their top two setup arms.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 23, 2024 11:18:45 GMT -5
In the last three seasons four teams with 90 wins or less made the World Series. Red Sox pacing for 87 currently puts them in the middle of that group, before losing these last 4 they were at a 90 win pace.
Making the playoffs makes you a World Series contender, they just need to be good enough to do that. Right now they are right on that line.
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Post by rhswanzey on Jul 23, 2024 11:18:49 GMT -5
If the team is literally the best in baseball for close to two months, and then goes 0-4 instead of 2-2 in four games, and that alone changes the trade deadline approach and long term strategy, then this organization has much, much bigger problems than an 8th inning RHP. It's not that the team revealed themselves to be fundamentally worse or more undeserving by going 0-4 rather than 2-2, it's that they lost two additional games when they're right on the cusp of a wild card. Instead of being in the third wild card spot they're 2 games out. Instead of ~50% playoff odds they're at ~33%.
YMMV, but for me that's the difference between being open to a significant addition, like a mid-tier starting pitcher, and preferring to just noodle around the edges.
Yeah, I mean, I buy Breslow’s public facing comment that playoff odds are a snapshot in time. I’d rather be two games up than two games down, of course. The fact that the odds swing so dramatically over the course of just a few days, multiple times within a season, suggests to me that they are more of a descriptive “what happened” metric than a predictive “what’s going to happen” metric.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 23, 2024 11:20:10 GMT -5
Sure looks like Breslow is going to be in the same bind Chaim was the last couple years--improvements via trades will be too marginal or costly in prospects and selling may bring a disappointing prospect haul. Chaim's downfall was supposedly not picking a lane at trade deadline. I expect Breslow is looking at the same highway that is rapidly narrowing in both directions. Seems like that’s a possibility. I will say that this team is better than the ones they fielded over the last 2 seasons.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 23, 2024 11:24:57 GMT -5
It's remarkable how many poor decisions are the result of applying the wrong metaphor - like one that implies a binary decision in a situation that is not binary. What if, instead of "picking a lane," Breslow were to:
- "balance" present and future value? - "hold" the hand he was dealt rather than "raise" or "fold"? - "have his cake and eat it too" by improving the team now and in the future, like they did in 2022? - "chart a middle course" to avoid dangers on both sides?
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 23, 2024 11:32:13 GMT -5
It's remarkable how many poor decisions are the result of applying the wrong metaphor - like one that implies a binary decision in a situation that is not binary. What if, instead of "picking a lane," Breslow were to:
- "balance" present and future value? - "hold" the hand he was dealt rather than "raise" or "fold"? - "have his cake and eat it too" by improving the team now and in the future, like they did in 2022? - "chart a middle course" to avoid dangers on both sides? But MY metaphor was approved by a committee of consultants.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 23, 2024 11:33:06 GMT -5
It's remarkable how many poor decisions are the result of applying the wrong metaphor - like one that implies a binary decision in a situation that is not binary. What if, instead of "picking a lane," Breslow were to:
- "balance" present and future value? - "hold" the hand he was dealt rather than "raise" or "fold"? - "have his cake and eat it too" by improving the team now and in the future, like they did in 2022? - "chart a middle course" to avoid dangers on both sides?
well they might still do this, Passan at least thinks they will. I’m hoping that Breslow’s comments are just meaningless
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Post by 0ap0 on Jul 23, 2024 11:34:23 GMT -5
It's remarkable how many poor decisions are the result of applying the wrong metaphor - like one that implies a binary decision in a situation that is not binary. What if, instead of "picking a lane," Breslow were to:
- "balance" present and future value? - "hold" the hand he was dealt rather than "raise" or "fold"? - "have his cake and eat it too" by improving the team now and in the future, like they did in 2022? - "chart a middle course" to avoid dangers on both sides?
You really have to look at the standings leading up to the trade deadline and pick a lane for your metaphor.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 23, 2024 11:34:40 GMT -5
It's not that the team revealed themselves to be fundamentally worse or more undeserving by going 0-4 rather than 2-2, it's that they lost two additional games when they're right on the cusp of a wild card. Instead of being in the third wild card spot they're 2 games out. Instead of ~50% playoff odds they're at ~33%.
YMMV, but for me that's the difference between being open to a significant addition, like a mid-tier starting pitcher, and preferring to just noodle around the edges.
Yeah, I mean, I buy Breslow’s public facing comment that playoff odds are a snapshot in time. I’d rather be two games up than two games down, of course. The fact that the odds swing so dramatically over the course of just a few days, multiple times within a season, suggests to me that they are more of a descriptive “what happened” metric than a predictive “what’s going to happen” metric. I dunno, if they go from a 90 win pace to an 87 win pace over four games and that drops their playoff odds by ~20%, that seems intuitively right to me.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 23, 2024 11:37:58 GMT -5
It's remarkable how many poor decisions are the result of applying the wrong metaphor - like one that implies a binary decision in a situation that is not binary. What if, instead of "picking a lane," Breslow were to:
- "balance" present and future value? - "hold" the hand he was dealt rather than "raise" or "fold"? - "have his cake and eat it too" by improving the team now and in the future, like they did in 2022? - "chart a middle course" to avoid dangers on both sides? But MY metaphor was approved by a committee of consultants. Where's George Lakoff when you need him...
As for Passan: that was paywalled; was he saying that the team was considering a mixed approach or that it would make sense to take a mixed approach? I too hope Breslow is just dissimulating, in any case.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 23, 2024 11:43:04 GMT -5
But MY metaphor was approved by a committee of consultants. Where's George Lakoff when you need him...
As for Passan: that was paywalled; was he saying that the team was considering a mixed approach or that it would make sense to take a mixed approach? I too hope Breslow is just dissimulating, in any case.
Mixed approach of adding and subtracting. He ends it by saying they may just sort of nibble on the margins both ways. Not really any specifics though.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 23, 2024 11:46:58 GMT -5
I just can’t wait until this is over - like with the off-season, we are going to have spent countless hours speculating and considering different options and the most boring path is probably what they’ll take
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Post by pappyman99 on Jul 23, 2024 11:49:12 GMT -5
Think the only way Breslow sells our rentals is if ownership basically says you have our full blessing to offer Soto and Max Fried whatever you want
I think the Cora contract expiring could be at play here as well, as in he might sell and not care care if Cora complains about it
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 23, 2024 12:02:23 GMT -5
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Post by costpet on Jul 23, 2024 12:02:23 GMT -5
If we don't make the playoffs, Cora is gone. What a shame. He was given garbage this year to manage and look what he's done with it. I think he's a very good manager and would hate to lose him. If he goes, there's a good chance the MFY's grab him. That would suck out loud.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 23, 2024 12:08:01 GMT -5
It was mentioned way earlier in this thread, but I do think the Netflix doc will have an influence on the approach at the deadline, for better or for worse. If the FO and ownership decide to do nothing or bite at the margins, their image is going to take a pretty substantial hit. On the contrary, I don’t think that matters much for Henry who could literally care less for how he’s publicly received by Red Sox fans.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Jul 23, 2024 12:10:27 GMT -5
If we don't make the playoffs, Cora is gone. What a shame. He was given garbage this year to manage and look what he's done with it. I think he's a very good manager and would hate to lose him. If he goes, there's a good chance the MFY's grab him. That would suck out loud. Or maybe the guys he was given this year are not garbage? Why does Cora always get all the credit when things are going well and none of the blame when they're going bad?
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 23, 2024 12:10:36 GMT -5
If we don't make the playoffs, Cora is gone. What a shame. He was given garbage this year to manage and look what he's done with it. I think he's a very good manager and would hate to lose him. If he goes, there's a good chance the MFY's grab him. That would suck out loud. Even if they bought at the deadline, I don’t think that moves the needle much for Cora staying. At the outset of the season, there was maybe a 10% chance he sticks around no matter what the end result was. Also, I think it’s extremely unlikely he does to the MFY. Odds are it’s the Phillies or Dodgers depending on which one doesn’t win the WS.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 23, 2024 12:26:53 GMT -5
If we don't make the playoffs, Cora is gone. What a shame. He was given garbage this year to manage and look what he's done with it. I think he's a very good manager and would hate to lose him. If he goes, there's a good chance the MFY's grab him. That would suck out loud. Even if they bought at the deadline, I don’t think that moves the needle much for Cora staying. At the outset of the season, there was maybe a 10% chance he sticks around no matter what the end result was. Also, I think it’s extremely unlikely he does to the MFY. Odds are it’s the Phillies or Dodgers depending on which one doesn’t win the WS. You’d think he’d be excited to manage this group + Mayer/Anthony/Teel plus whoever they get when the team spends decides to spend money again… someday But maybe he’s burnt out from managing here - IDK
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 23, 2024 12:31:53 GMT -5
Stats tweeted an excerpt that they’re still open to selectively selling rentals - can Pivetta still get the QO? If so, would much rather hold and QO him than trade him
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 23, 2024 12:33:14 GMT -5
Do we feel it likely or not that O’Neill and Pivetta are getting QO’s at this point? That surely is a big factor in the rental trade question
Fun Tyler O’Neill bombs aside, it’s a little concerning he seems to have lost some of the athleticism that made him extra dynamic in the field and on offense - he was elite in Sprint Speed all the way back as far as two years ago, and now he’s merely above average. Between the injuries and the swing-and-miss I’m not sure how well that ages
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 23, 2024 12:38:33 GMT -5
Do we feel it likely or not that O’Neill and Pivetta are getting QO’s at this point? That surely is a big factor in the rental trade question Fun Tyler O’Neill bombs aside, it’s a little concerning he seems to have lost some of the athleticism that made him extra dynamic in the field and on offense - he was elite in Sprint Speed all the way back as far as two years ago, and now he’s merely above average. Between the injuries and the swing-and-miss I’m not sure how well that ages I think Pivetta is a maybe, I'd lean slightly towards yes. O'Neill I doubt gets the QO, I'd be okay with it but I don't think they'd want to tie the $20M or so into him for a year because I think he'd probably accept it. Pivetta might accept it as well but it's probably reasonable to pay him the $20M a year considering what pitchers get sometimes.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 23, 2024 12:48:13 GMT -5
Even if they bought at the deadline, I don’t think that moves the needle much for Cora staying. At the outset of the season, there was maybe a 10% chance he sticks around no matter what the end result was. Also, I think it’s extremely unlikely he does to the MFY. Odds are it’s the Phillies or Dodgers depending on which one doesn’t win the WS. You’d think he’d be excited to manage this group + Mayer/Anthony/Teel plus whoever they get when the team spends decides to spend money again… someday But maybe he’s burnt out from managing here - IDK I think it’s more simple that he just wants to make as much money as possible and right now that seems likely to be elsewhere
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 23, 2024 12:55:19 GMT -5
You’d think he’d be excited to manage this group + Mayer/Anthony/Teel plus whoever they get when the team spends decides to spend money again… someday But maybe he’s burnt out from managing here - IDK I think it’s more simple that he just wants to make as much money as possible and right now that seems likely to be elsewhere Well I mean, yes haha. And who knows what they’re willing to offer him or any other manager. But if the money was equal it’s unclear what other factors (if any) he has in mind I’m still not entirely convinced the “he might go to NYY or LA” isn’t coming from his camp as a negotiating thing
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