ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 20, 2024 11:41:59 GMT -5
Okay I have been convinced that the Red Sox are not literally unimprovable. So who are the trade targets who would be an upgrade on Criswell? I've got: Crochet Fedde maaaybe Flaherty Kikuchi if the Blue Jays fall out of it? Eflin if the Rays fall out of it? I guess there are some interesting possibilities if the Rangers become deadline sellers. I could talk myself into deGrom being an upgrade on Criswell. Ugly contract though... Personally if the Rangers become sellers I'd be targeting Eovaldi. It did work out pretty well last time the Sox traded for Eovaldi at the deadline after all... I was curious on Eovaldi's contract since I knew there was a 3rd year option, I guess it only vests for $20M if he reaches 300 IP between 2023 and 2024. He had 144 last year and is at 60 this year so I don't really see that vesting. For other expiring pitchers on the Rangers, Heaney and Lorenzen wouldn't be bad targets in my opinion either.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 20, 2024 11:55:13 GMT -5
I'd take Eovaldi. I definitely don't put Heaney or Lorenzen in the better-than-Criswell category.
But hear me out on deGrom... Texas might want to get out of that contract. But it's only 3/111 after this season and Texas might be willing to eat some of that and the prospect cost could be low. Sure, he might only be healthy half the time or less, but if the healthy stretches came around playoff time, how great would that be?
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Post by puzzler on Jun 20, 2024 11:59:07 GMT -5
I'd take Eovaldi. I definitely don't put Heaney or Lorenzen in the better-than-Criswell category. You are way too hyper focused on better-than-Criswell instead of sum of all parts, but Lorenzen has been far better than Criswell. I'm not sure what you're looking at there.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 20, 2024 12:00:43 GMT -5
I really don't see it with DeGrom short of the Rangers paying a substantial part of that deal to which they probably would be better off just keeping him themselves and hope he can bounce back.
In terms of Lorenzen and Heaney, I don't necessarily think they are better than Criswell but if either could be had for basically a lotto ticket prospect I would take the added SP depth in a heartbeat.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 20, 2024 12:05:38 GMT -5
I'd take Eovaldi. I definitely don't put Heaney or Lorenzen in the better-than-Criswell category. You are way too hyper focused on better-than-Criswell instead of sum of all parts, but Lorenzen has been far better than Criswell. I'm not sure what you're looking at there. I'm not sure what you're looking at there. 4.70 xERA, 4.89 FIP, 4.59 xFIP? K/9 of 6.25? K-BB% of 7.0?
I got your sum-of-parts argument; I just think the value of upgrading Chase Anderson's low leverage bullpen innings is trivial. If a trade for a starter is going to be worth it then it needs to be because they're gonna get better starts out of the acquisition than what they would otherwise. The other stuff is just not worth spending any sort of capital on.
To ematz' point: But it's not like they can be stashed in Worcester until needed. They'd be on the major league roster, which means they'd be getting innings, and since they're not very good they wouldn't actually be making the team better. I'd rather roll with Winckowski than Lorenzen at least, and maybe Heaney too.
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Post by cmax on Jun 20, 2024 12:15:01 GMT -5
Yeah, on the pitching front this is where I have a lot of confidence in Breslow, Bailey, Willard and co. to know who to target. I would think the Marlins might be a smart team to target with Luzardo, Rogers or possibly even Max Meyer as people to go for... Would love to be under the hood with Breslow to better understand the arms he and his team wants to target. If they could unlock someone like Trevor Rogers that might be a compelling option, though really hypothetical for me to venture who makes the most sense given how much more information and insight they have into this.
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Post by wanderingdude on Jun 20, 2024 12:24:59 GMT -5
They’re in a pretty similar spot as they were in the offseason where marginal upgrades don’t really do anything. Obviously more depth is always appreciated in case of emergency but if they actually believe in this team making the playoffs they need to make a painful trade. I still think the most likely path is trading away the rentals and trying to trade for a long term controllable piece. Trading away Masa would be my primary goal as maybe someone is more willing to trade for him now than in the offseason when they have more options. I also bet we see some ground work laid on an outfield trade (Wilyer or Duran?) which would suck as i love those guys, but it’s probably needed with Roman coming to better balance the roster and allow for everyone to get everyday at bats that they need. They are in a weird spot and i think we see a lot of fireworks between now and the 2025 deadline.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 20, 2024 12:28:59 GMT -5
I am firmly not interested in buying, unless we're just dumping assets we don't value. This remains a low leverage moment for the team - 0% chance at a top two seed, 1/3rd chance at a wildcard. The average moment in the next several seasons rates to be more important.
incandenza's point is correct as well. The only bum we're running out there is Dom Smith, and he's getting replaced on his own. Upgrading from decent players is really expensive and doesn't even rate to help that much over half a season
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 20, 2024 12:31:01 GMT -5
I wonder if some other team in a 40 man crunch has a borderline starting pitcher prospect the Red Sox see something in that their current team doesn't.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jun 20, 2024 12:37:22 GMT -5
I am firmly not interested in buying, unless we're just dumping assets we don't value. This remains a low leverage moment for the team - 0% chance at a top two seed, 1/3rd chance at a wildcard. The average moment in the next several seasons rates to be more important. incandenza's point is correct as well. The only bum we're running out there is Dom Smith, and he's getting replaced on his own. Upgrading from decent players is really expensive and doesn't even rate to help that much over half a season The issue might not be as much "who can we get at a particular moment in time?" as "sooner or later we may well have a crunch of position players, and if we can't play them all, we might as well get something for some of them." Add to that, our pitching prospects lag behind, and Perales just got shelved basically until 2026. So we might be forced by circumstances to trade some of them to get pitching help, just to maximize our prospect assets.
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Post by soxin8 on Jun 20, 2024 12:46:53 GMT -5
Just a reminder that if you are thinking of bullpen additions, Liam Hendriks is still on target for an Aug 1 return. What a stacked bullpen that would be if no one else is moved. Kind of like the Royals world series winner in 2015.
I was surprised SD could get Cease without moving any of their top four prospects. I think the Sox could get Crochet without including any of the big 3 but ematz brought up his injury history and previous innings pitched which could be a consideration. I love the idea of Eovaldi but I think Texas will be reluctant to give up on the season after last year's success unless they are obviously out of contention.
After the last week, doesn't it seem like the Sox have much better than a 33% chance of passing MN or KC?
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Post by puzzler on Jun 20, 2024 12:49:07 GMT -5
You are way too hyper focused on better-than-Criswell instead of sum of all parts, but Lorenzen has been far better than Criswell. I'm not sure what you're looking at there. I'm not sure what you're looking at there. 4.70 xERA, 4.89 FIP, 4.59 xFIP? K/9 of 6.25? K-BB% of 7.0?
I got your sum-of-parts argument; I just think the value of upgrading Chase Anderson's low leverage bullpen innings is trivial. If a trade for a starter is going to be worth it then it needs to be because they're gonna get better starts out of the acquisition than what they would otherwise. The other stuff is just not worth spending any sort of capital on.
Yes, because that's all Chase Anderson is - low leverage bullpen innings. Whereas Criswell is not that - he's a guy that Cora can go way more frequently than he does Anderson. Bottom line on Lorenzen and Criswell - one has a huge pitch mix and has successfully made it to the 6th inning 10 out of 12 starts. The other has a smaller pitch mix and has only made it to the 5th inning in 7 of 11 starts. Criswell also has a sinker that he basically can't successfully throw after the first time through the lineup. For this season at least, one profiles as a starting pitcher and the other doesn't.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jun 20, 2024 13:37:02 GMT -5
After the last week, doesn't it seem like the Sox have much better than a 33% chance of passing MN or KC? The Sox actually have higher Wild Card odds according to the Magic Fangraphs Computers than the Royals (36.5% to 29.9%). In fact they are currently the third most likely Wild Card team behind the Orioles and Twins. But relatedly, the Royals have better overall playoff odds because the system still thinks they have a small chance at their division. Even though they and KC are both currently estimated for a projected 83ish wins, the Sox would need to 1) win 100 games, and/or 2) get both the Orioles and Yankees to collapse to have any chance in the East. So their path is much narrower. www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/lg
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Post by incandenza on Jun 20, 2024 14:03:25 GMT -5
I'm not sure what you're looking at there. 4.70 xERA, 4.89 FIP, 4.59 xFIP? K/9 of 6.25? K-BB% of 7.0?
I got your sum-of-parts argument; I just think the value of upgrading Chase Anderson's low leverage bullpen innings is trivial. If a trade for a starter is going to be worth it then it needs to be because they're gonna get better starts out of the acquisition than what they would otherwise. The other stuff is just not worth spending any sort of capital on.
Yes, because that's all Chase Anderson is - low leverage bullpen innings. Whereas Criswell is not that - he's a guy that Cora can go way more frequently than he does Anderson.Bottom line on Lorenzen and Criswell - one has a huge pitch mix and has successfully made it to the 6th inning 10 out of 12 starts. The other has a smaller pitch mix and has only made it to the 5th inning in 7 of 11 starts. Criswell also has a sinker that he basically can't successfully throw after the first time through the lineup. For this season at least, one profiles as a starting pitcher and the other doesn't. But they're still going to be low leverage innings, whether Anderson pitches them, or Criswell pitches them, or Weissert/Bernardino/et al. pitches them. One way or the other the only real effect of swapping out Anderson for Criswell is that you have a better pitcher to cover these low leverage innings.
On Lorenzen, you're describing like the idea of a starting pitcher, but his performance hasn't been there. Ever, really - career FIP as a starter of 4.68, overall FIP of 4.51 since 2022. Maybe Criswell is not the platonic ideal of a starter and he can only go 4.2 innings a start, but if he can do it with an xERA/FIP/xFIP that are a full run lower than Lorenzen's I'll gladly take it, especially because they're getting decent length from the rest of their starters.
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Post by cba82 on Jun 20, 2024 14:30:51 GMT -5
What about this guy Bailey Horn, who I had never heard of, taking up a 40-man spot in Worcester with decent numbers (in limited innings)? It seems there are some in-house options for the bullpen.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 20, 2024 14:38:59 GMT -5
At some point if he isn’t needed as a starter they can also use Winckowski in the bullpen and I’m not sure who they could acquire that would be worth the cost of upgrading from what he’s likely to give you. And they have Hendriks returning. I’d be more inclined to trade Jansen or Martin away than to add another reliever.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 20, 2024 14:56:43 GMT -5
At some point if he isn’t needed as a starter they can also use Winckowski in the bullpen and I’m not sure who they could acquire that would be worth the cost of upgrading from what he’s likely to give you. And they have Hendriks returning. I’d be more inclined to trade Jansen or Martin away than to add another reliever. Isaiah Campbell too, who's basically just being stashed in AAA right now, right?
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Post by nonothing on Jun 20, 2024 21:03:08 GMT -5
You are way too hyper focused on better-than-Criswell instead of sum of all parts, but Lorenzen has been far better than Criswell. I'm not sure what you're looking at there. I'm not sure what you're looking at there. 4.70 xERA, 4.89 FIP, 4.59 xFIP? K/9 of 6.25? K-BB% of 7.0?
I got your sum-of-parts argument; I just think the value of upgrading Chase Anderson's low leverage bullpen innings is trivial. If a trade for a starter is going to be worth it then it needs to be because they're gonna get better starts out of the acquisition than what they would otherwise. The other stuff is just not worth spending any sort of capital on.
To ematz' point: But it's not like they can be stashed in Worcester until needed. They'd be on the major league roster, which means they'd be getting innings, and since they're not very good they wouldn't actually be making the team better. I'd rather roll with Winckowski than Lorenzen at least, and maybe Heaney too.
Criswell threw 117.2 IP last yr. I would assume he was sent down for a break to also keep his innings down and let others throw in relief for a stretch. I would not be surprised to see his workload be very light down there so they can preserve his total innings for later in the yr. I could be wrong, but I can't see them wanting him to pitch more than 140-150IP inc playoffs if they were to make the playoffs.
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Post by Jimmy on Jun 21, 2024 1:16:21 GMT -5
Trade an expiring Kenley and eat all the $ to maximize prospect return. Who knows what you’ll get with Hendricks but I’m willing to take the risk on the Kenley for Hendricks shuffle in order to maximize 2025+ where we’ll be more legitimate contenders.
I doubt there’ll be an opportunity to have a team take on Yosh without eating a ton of salary or sending prospects back… if that’s the case, hold onto him. If somehow you can get a team to bite on taking him on for free (maybe Sox eat 20% of his salary), then happy to pull the trigger on that.
ONeil, Pivetta, Martin less clear… obviously depends on return and where we are in the standings. If ONeil looks like he’s playing himself into a QO then hold… however if not it’d really hurt not to sell high on him considering softness in power bat market this deadline. +between outfield & DH we have Duran/Raf/Ref/Abreu/Yosh so it’s not like you’re opening a gaping hole. Pivetta would probably be a white flag, Martin I’m indifferent on
If they fall out before deadline watch out for Refsnyder as a sneaky trade candidate… he’s a perfect complimentary piece for a contending team + has another year of cheap control, think you could get a surprising package for him & Sox have 2025 logjam at the position
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Post by bosoxnation on Jun 21, 2024 1:42:24 GMT -5
I'll be the first to say it. As a team with a loaded OF gimme Crochet and prospects for Roman and Yoshida. After that I'd extend Tyler for a few years and keep Rob around. I love those 5 until someone else emerges and gives us a FILTHY young rotation. We're so loaded at IF and we need to keep the DH open to give Devers rest and match up with guys like Valdez or Hamilton when everyone's healthy. Also Roman reminds me along of Benintendi and it scares me. I'd rather stay with the guys who are proven and get that much needed LHP and it just happens he's under control AND 24 AND available. You don't get those 3 together.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 21, 2024 6:58:07 GMT -5
I'll be the first to say it. As a team with a loaded OF gimme Crochet and prospects for Roman and Yoshida. After that I'd extend Tyler for a few years and keep Rob around. I love those 5 until someone else emerges and gives us a FILTHY young rotation. We're so loaded at IF and we need to keep the DH open to give Devers rest and match up with guys like Valdez or Hamilton when everyone's healthy. Also Roman reminds me along of Benintendi and it scares me. I'd rather stay with the guys who are proven and get that much needed LHP and it just happens he's under control AND 24 AND available. You don't get those 3 together. Skipping past the trade, which I'll just say I would not be happy if they did. How does Roman Anthony remind you of Beni? The only possible similarities I can see are they are both LHH OFers, that's pretty much where any comparisons stop in my opinion.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 21, 2024 15:56:14 GMT -5
Maybe the more important question: If you’re the GM on the other end of the text, who MUST you have in return for:
Crochet Eovaldi Elfin Flaherty
?
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Post by seamus on Jun 21, 2024 16:18:48 GMT -5
I am firmly not interested in buying, unless we're just dumping assets we don't value. This remains a low leverage moment for the team - 0% chance at a top two seed, 1/3rd chance at a wildcard. The average moment in the next several seasons rates to be more important. incandenza's point is correct as well. The only bum we're running out there is Dom Smith, and he's getting replaced on his own. Upgrading from decent players is really expensive and doesn't even rate to help that much over half a season The Yankees and Orioles aren't going anywhere soon, so I think you're going to need a more realistic bar for contention. Regardless of what percentages Fangraphs says the Sox have in June, as of right now there are basically 3 teams fighting for 2 wild card spots. The competition is light this year and since there's no guarantee that scenario repeats itself anytime in the future I'd argue this year is more important. Also if you're going to lean on incandenza's point that the team is mostly fine as-is then the window of contention is open right now and not sometime in the future, right? Even if one interprets "fine as-is" to mean "window is open," that doesn't necessarily mean you push in your chips for this season. They are in contention for a playoff spot and don't really have a way to clearly improve the current team without sacrificing the future. If they were an old team or were about to lose their key players to free agency, it might be worth trading top prospects to make one last run for October, but that's not the scenario currently facing the team. The success the team has found this year is largely based on performances by players who will be around for a few more years and who will hopefully continue to get better.
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Post by markm7 on Jun 21, 2024 17:26:02 GMT -5
I think they should be aggressive selling this deadline no FA coming back, Hamilton and Valdez probably don’t have spots come next spring, one of Duran or Abreu have to go because Anthony will be in RF Rafaela in CF and a right handed in LF so they’ll probably be competing for the 4th OF spot. I think they’re in a position to be the bell of the dance at deadline and build a really strong team and support system for the big 3
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Post by cba82 on Jun 21, 2024 17:35:59 GMT -5
“one of Duran or Abreu have to go” — Nope.
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