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6/7 Gameday Thread: Wink, Wink & An Old Friend That Got Away
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 7, 2024 8:27:28 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Jun 7, 2024 8:57:38 GMT -5
A lot of people were mad about letting Thad Ward get away in Rule 5; he has a 6.15 ERA and 5.24 FIP in AAA this season.
(Whereas I was mad about letting Shane Drohan get away in Rule 5; he... has an 8.68 ERA and 5.44 FIP in 10 appearances rehabbing in the minors.)
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 7, 2024 9:39:35 GMT -5
Both DSL games postponed
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 7, 2024 10:04:52 GMT -5
(Whereas I was mad about letting Shane Drohan get away in Rule 5; he... has an 8.68 ERA and 5.44 FIP in 10 appearances rehabbing in the minors.)
I would guess we get him back, even from the White Sox
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 7, 2024 10:31:14 GMT -5
A lot of people were mad about letting Thad Ward get away in Rule 5; he has a 6.15 ERA and 5.24 FIP in AAA this season. (Whereas I was mad about letting Shane Drohan get away in Rule 5; he... has an 8.68 ERA and 5.44 FIP in 10 appearances rehabbing in the minors.)
With Ward it was really more the people they kept instead of him than Ward himself. I still feel that way - given who they chose to keep, Ward's ability to eat some innings, not get embarassed, and maybe develop, would have been the right choice. Drohan is essentially rehabbing. Given that the Red Sox didn't like him enough to protect him (and the White Sox were apparently not the only team that would've snagged him), I wouldn't be surprised if the teams work out some kind of lottery ticket compensation or a borderline 2024 Rule 5 protection dude that allows the White Sox to keep him. If they like him more than the Red Sox do, which seems obvious, it makes sense for both teams to put something together.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 7, 2024 10:37:01 GMT -5
Well let's go ahead and look at it - it's David Hamilton and Wilyer Abreu versus Ward. Although in hindsight yeah, you'd rather have Hamilton and Abreu, Hamilton was a complete surprise (and seemed more based on the new rules than anything) and Abreu at the time wasn't what he is now. Would he have been picked? Dunno. Hamilton's the one that I still have a hard time thinking would've been selected and stuck.
With Drohan, the White Sox are so bad I could see them trying to keep him for some time in MLB. We'll see though.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 7, 2024 11:30:17 GMT -5
It was less the other guys they added and more the folks at the back end of the 40-man - Darwinzon Hernandez, Connor Seabod (neither made it to spring training before being DFA), Ryan Brasier, Kaleb Ort... I'm sure I'm forgetting a couple. They had a lot of space to play with and Ward was a better use of it than those guys. Abreu they clearly liked a lot (and were right), and Hamilton sticking as a pinch runner type felt very much like a 1992 concern but I can see it.
And yeah, the Drohan certainly wouldn't make the White Sox major league any worse.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 7, 2024 11:44:53 GMT -5
Cespedes with a HR. Fourth of the year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 7, 2024 11:47:04 GMT -5
It was less the other guys they added and more the folks at the back end of the 40-man - Darwinzon Hernandez, Connor Seabod (neither made it to spring training before being DFA), Ryan Brasier, Kaleb Ort... I'm sure I'm forgetting a couple. They had a lot of space to play with and Ward was a better use of it than those guys. Abreu they clearly liked a lot (and were right), and Hamilton sticking as a pinch runner type felt very much like a 1992 concern but I can see it. And yeah, the Drohan certainly wouldn't make the White Sox major league any worse. Good point. Ort especially I recall being a headscratcher.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 7, 2024 11:54:06 GMT -5
Ort was hitting 101 that September and the pitch shape metrics with him are good enough that he's still bouncing around 40 man rosters even after the results have totally cratered
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 7, 2024 12:08:44 GMT -5
Ort was hitting 101 that September and the pitch shape metrics with him are good enough that he's still bouncing around 40 man rosters even after the results have totally cratered I think the end of the Bloom era was marked by a significant amount of fear of having another Jeffrey Springs where they let go of a guy and he blossoms for another team. Ort had been around long enough that he was expendable. A few of those guys were.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 7, 2024 12:49:57 GMT -5
I don’t know if it’s fair to say Hamilton only became something because of the rules change. He’s an 80 base runner, which had value regardless, he’s running a 110 wRC+ and isn’t getting an abundance of hits that would have been outs with a shift, and he’s now been playing average defense at short for a month or so.
Also the org kept indicating they believed in him the entire time, including when they selected him obviously.
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jun 7, 2024 12:51:39 GMT -5
Cespedes just added a double and stole 3rd b4 scoring on a WP
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,659
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Post by cdj on Jun 7, 2024 12:52:00 GMT -5
Cespedes just added a double and stole 3rd b4 scoring on a WP Salem beckons
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 7, 2024 12:57:24 GMT -5
I am pretty anxious to see what he looks like fielding groundballs on the Salem stream
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Jun 7, 2024 13:09:33 GMT -5
Cespedes clearly saw that he "dropped" from 5 to 6 in the SP rankings and wants to prove them wrong.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 7, 2024 13:10:39 GMT -5
I don’t know if it’s fair to say Hamilton only became something because of the rules change. He’s an 80 base runner, which had value regardless, he’s running a 110 wRC+ and isn’t getting an abundance of hits that would have been outs with a shift, and he’s now been playing average defense at short for a month or so. Also the org kept indicating they believed in him the entire time, including when they selected him obviously. You can't steal first base. At the time Hamilton projected as a second baseman who may or may not hit, but was a 70 runner (disagree respectfully that he's an 80 runner). That's not necessarily a guy you protect. Again, not referring to 2024 or even 2023 David Hamilton. Referring to November 2022 David Hamilton, the player they were deciding whether or not to protect and other teams were deciding whether or not to draft. His protection caught everyone by surprise. For reference we ranked him 44th in the system at the time (bumped him up to 33 after the R5 protection was made).
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 7, 2024 13:12:23 GMT -5
I don’t know if it’s fair to say Hamilton only became something because of the rules change. He’s an 80 base runner, which had value regardless, he’s running a 110 wRC+ and isn’t getting an abundance of hits that would have been outs with a shift, and he’s now been playing average defense at short for a month or so. Also the org kept indicating they believed in him the entire time, including when they selected him obviously. The question was more why he was protected at the time, when he was still pretty far from being a major league contributor (he hadn't had a particularly great 2022 at Portland) - a likely answer is that the team was worried that he'd have a better chance to stick than most guys with his profile because the speed would play, especially with the new rules. Very little question that, had they not protected him then and he'd remained in the system, he'd have been added following a strong year at Worcester in '23. EDIT: Yeah what Chris said.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 7, 2024 13:17:57 GMT -5
I don’t know if it’s fair to say Hamilton only became something because of the rules change. He’s an 80 base runner, which had value regardless, he’s running a 110 wRC+ and isn’t getting an abundance of hits that would have been outs with a shift, and he’s now been playing average defense at short for a month or so. Also the org kept indicating they believed in him the entire time, including when they selected him obviously. You can't steal first base. At the time Hamilton projected as a second baseman who may or may not hit, but was a 70 runner (disagree respectfully that he's an 80 runner). That's not necessarily a guy you protect. Again, not referring to 2024 or even 2023 David Hamilton. Referring to November 2022 David Hamilton, the player they were deciding whether or not to protect and other teams were deciding whether or not to draft. His protection caught everyone by surprise. For reference we ranked him 44th in the system at the time (bumped him up to 33 after the R5 protection was made). I don’t know how you can disagree that he’s an 80 functionally as an in game baserunner, on a rate basis he’s been one of the best couple in the league. Though I might not be using this in the pure scouting sense of 80 foot speed, so maybe that’s our gap there. And he may have projected worse as a hitter then, will trust you on that, but my point is that his development/success as a hitter is not solely attributable to the rule changes. As for the defense it feels like there’s always been a disparity between how the Red Sox talked about him and how SP did, and so far in the Majors he’s holding up there, but maybe I’m misremembering this piece.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 7, 2024 13:19:13 GMT -5
I don’t know if it’s fair to say Hamilton only became something because of the rules change. He’s an 80 base runner, which had value regardless, he’s running a 110 wRC+ and isn’t getting an abundance of hits that would have been outs with a shift, and he’s now been playing average defense at short for a month or so. Also the org kept indicating they believed in him the entire time, including when they selected him obviously. The question was more why he was protected at the time, when he was still pretty far from being a major league contributor (he hadn't had a particularly great 2022 at Portland) - a likely answer is that the team was worried that he'd have a better chance to stick than most guys with his profile because the speed would play, especially with the new rules. Very little question that, had they not protected him then and he'd remained in the system, he'd have been added following a strong year at Worcester in '23. EDIT: Yeah what Chris said. Yeah just to be clear I wasn’t responding to that piece, I get that that’s fair enough and I can believe it, more was pushing back on the notion that the rule changes alone are what is making him succeed.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 7, 2024 14:05:09 GMT -5
I actually don't think protecting Hamilton was all that mysterious even at the time. Going back to the relevant thread, cdj pointed out: From July 1st on that season he hit .272/.378/.429. 13% walk rate.
And I don't think it's hindsight bias to say he might well have gotten picked. From vermontsox1:
Even the criticisms at the time were along the lines of "it's not that protecting Hamilton is so questionable, it's choosing him over Ward that's questionable." But, to bring the hindsight view back into it... that doesn't seem so questionable now.
Shout out for this specific take, by the way (commenter name redacted): "Do we have any information to back up [Ward] has medical issues? Let's not make excuses, this is on Bloom he's traded for all these so-so prospects putting a huge strain on the 40 man roster. He picked guys he traded for, Ward likely gets picked. If he does well it's on Bloom."
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Post by dcb26 on Jun 7, 2024 14:41:59 GMT -5
When that conversation happened I honestly thought the first couple of posts that Ward was more valuable/should have protected over Hamilton were joking. Not trying to criticize or claim to always be right, but I agree with others above that it definitely wasn't a *complete* consensus that Ward should have been protected instead of Hamilton et al.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jun 7, 2024 15:07:38 GMT -5
Its crazy how talented our system is. I'm a big fan of Sogard but I don't see a way he can make this team. I can see him being like Brock Holt, when he was good lol
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,659
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Post by cdj on Jun 7, 2024 15:12:55 GMT -5
I actually don't think protecting Hamilton was all that mysterious even at the time. Going back to the relevant thread, cdj pointed out: From July 1st on that season he hit .272/.378/.429. 13% walk rate.
And I don't think it's hindsight bias to say he might well have gotten picked. From vermontsox1:
Even the criticisms at the time were along the lines of "it's not that protecting Hamilton is so questionable, it's choosing him over Ward that's questionable." But, to bring the hindsight view back into it... that doesn't seem so questionable now.
Shout out for this specific take, by the way (commenter name redacted): "Do we have any information to back up [Ward] has medical issues? Let's not make excuses, this is on Bloom he's traded for all these so-so prospects putting a huge strain on the 40 man roster. He picked guys he traded for, Ward likely gets picked. If he does well it's on Bloom."
Final ~65 plate appearances of that year he went .429/.508/.643, was absolutely nuclear to end the season after being a mid .300’s or lower slugger for like 4 months. Fair to think a change was made imo
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Post by insanesoxfan on Jun 7, 2024 15:38:07 GMT -5
Cespedes just added a double and stole 3rd b4 scoring on a WP Salem beckons When is the last time a kid got promoted to A ball before completing a whole season of the FCL?
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