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Post by soxin8 on Jun 18, 2024 21:59:18 GMT -5
What is the opposite of a June swoon, because dear friends this is what is before us. I believe that one Ceddanne Rafaela now has the highest batting average amongst eligible American League Rookies. I know it may be a long shot, but I haven't given up on the ROY for him and the Sox.
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Post by LoneStarSox on Jun 18, 2024 22:16:13 GMT -5
If Bello turns things around tomorrow that’s how you know we’re really cooking Nice to win this series and keep the momentum going He needs to take a lesson Kenley has learned. Pound the zone with strikes. AC spoke to the mlb show this AM on Sirius (forget the name of it) and said they told him specifically to pound the zone after last game. Fingers crossed the message got through. Time will tell.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jun 18, 2024 22:25:49 GMT -5
There's something about this team I can't help but love. We're on fire right now so that always helps but beating Phillies and Yankees best records the league back to back not by small margins either with Rafaela being the MVP of June just makes me so happy. I was worried about that contract with no MLB experience but it looks like it was WELL worth it. Lock up Houck and Casas please no free agents this year I'm OK with that.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 18, 2024 22:37:17 GMT -5
O’Neil bails out Valdez and Ref. Now never play Valdez again, especially in the 2 spot. Boy, this board turned fast on a guy who had a 1.169 OPS before today since coming back from AAA. But I trust all is forgiven with how the game turned out.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 19, 2024 2:22:39 GMT -5
As of a week ago the only Sox player to record a Win Probability Added of .375 or better in a nine inning game (which means you single-handedly got the team 75% to a win) was Houck in his CG -- .616.
Then Zack Kelly does the Houdini to the tune of .391.
And tonight Rafaela posts a .415. He was 17th worst in WPA going into the game, but he's been above average since May 30.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 19, 2024 2:51:44 GMT -5
Win Probability Added since 5/29, when Valdez was recalled and (the next day) Rafaela started hitting. Note that WPA=0 is average.
Jarren Duran 0.67 Ceddan. Rafaela 0.59 David Hamilton 0.53 Tyler O'Neill 0.46 Enmanuel Valdez 0.42 Rafael Devers 0.33 Romy Gonzalez -0.04 Connor Wong -0.04 Reese McGuire -0.05 Dominic Smith -0.06 Jamie Westbrook -0.07 Bobby Dalbec -0.09 Vaughn Grissom -0.09 Masata. Yoshida -0.16 Wilyer Abreu -0.21 Rob Refsnyder -0.30
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jun 19, 2024 3:03:15 GMT -5
Good young team doing good things, including winning 3 series vs good teams. Surprised? Had some fun? God bless the child.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jun 19, 2024 5:12:07 GMT -5
Win Probability Added since 5/29, when Valdez was recalled and (the next day) Rafaela started hitting. Note that WPA=0 is average.
Jarren Duran 0.67 Ceddan. Rafaela 0.59 David Hamilton 0.53 Tyler O'Neill 0.46 Enmanuel Valdez 0.42 Rafael Devers 0.33 Romy Gonzalez -0.04 Connor Wong -0.04 Reese McGuire -0.05 Dominic Smith -0.06 Jamie Westbrook -0.07 Bobby Dalbec -0.09 Vaughn Grissom -0.09 Masata. Yoshida -0.16 Wilyer Abreu -0.21 Rob Refsnyder -0.30
To me, Refsnyder currently gets the Lou Merloni award for overexposure of a role player. Water does seek its own level.
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Post by costpet on Jun 19, 2024 5:17:20 GMT -5
Good thing to remember: Speed never slumps.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jun 19, 2024 6:00:02 GMT -5
WAR leaders (via Fangraphs) among MLB relief pitchers:
1. Jeff Hoffman (PHI) 2. Mason Miller (OAK) 3. Matt Strahm (PHI) 4. Emmanuel Clase (CLE) 5. Fernando Cruz (CIN) 6. Hunter Harvey (WSH) 7. Justin Slaten - BOSTON RED SOX 8. Andres Munoz (SEA) 9. Griffin Jax (MIN) 10. Bryan Hudson (MIL) 11. Cade Smith (CLE) 12. Kenley Jansen - BOSTON RED SOX
Kenley’s washed
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Post by cba82 on Jun 19, 2024 7:07:05 GMT -5
What is the opposite of a June swoon, because dear friends this is what is before us. I believe that one Ceddanne Rafaela now has the highest batting average amongst eligible American League Rookies. I know it may be a long shot, but I haven't given up on the ROY for him and the Sox. Here’s hoping Wilyer Abreu has something to say about that.
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Post by costpet on Jun 19, 2024 7:57:23 GMT -5
The GO-GO Red Sox
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Post by ephus on Jun 19, 2024 8:16:18 GMT -5
That three game set against KC at home right before the all star break is looking pretty significant in terms of where this team goes. wild.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 19, 2024 9:04:57 GMT -5
Win Probability Added since 5/29, when Valdez was recalled and (the next day) Rafaela started hitting. Note that WPA=0 is average.
Jarren Duran 0.67 Ceddan. Rafaela 0.59 David Hamilton 0.53 Tyler O'Neill 0.46 Enmanuel Valdez 0.42 Rafael Devers 0.33 Romy Gonzalez -0.04 Connor Wong -0.04 Reese McGuire -0.05 Dominic Smith -0.06 Jamie Westbrook -0.07 Bobby Dalbec -0.09 Vaughn Grissom -0.09 Masata. Yoshida -0.16 Wilyer Abreu -0.21 Rob Refsnyder -0.30
To me, Refsnyder currently gets the Lou Merloni award for overexposure of a role player. Water does seek its own level. He's hit .286/.352/.365 in that timeframe, which ain't bad for a role player. But he has come back to earth against righties (74 wRC+ in 44 PAs). It will be good to get Abreu back.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 19, 2024 9:22:31 GMT -5
To me, Refsnyder currently gets the Lou Merloni award for overexposure of a role player. Water does seek its own level. He's hit .286/.352/.365 in that timeframe, which ain't bad for a role player. But he has come back to earth against righties (74 wRC+ in 44 PAs). It will be good to get Abreu back. Yeah with Abreu back and the OF at full strength they can always be starting only one righty between OF/DH against righties, and only one lefty against lefties. As much as they want to do that while still trying to work on Abreu and Rafaela's platoon splits.
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Post by sublime on Jun 19, 2024 10:49:14 GMT -5
I know it may be a long shot, but I haven't given up on the ROY for him and the Sox. Here’s hoping Wilyer Abreu has something to say about that. We want Abreu to do well no doubt, but would want want Rafaela to win because he was Top 100 ranked at the beginning of the season and could potentially get us a comp pick? On a side note this team has been enjoyable to watch all year, but within the past few weeks the athleticism has been on full display and has really cranked it up a notch. Hopefully they can get the win tonight and make it five in a row!
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Post by LoneStarSox on Jun 19, 2024 11:21:36 GMT -5
That three game set against KC at home right before the all star break is looking pretty significant in terms of where this team goes. wild. was looking at this last night. KC and Minny play mid August and September which will be HUGE. Then Minny comes to town at the end of the season which will be possibly massive. Cautiously optimistic that last series with the twins will be putting us over the top for the WC.
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Post by LoneStarSox on Jun 19, 2024 11:38:58 GMT -5
Here’s hoping Wilyer Abreu has something to say about that. We want Abreu to do well no doubt, but would want want Rafaela to win because he was Top 100 ranked at the beginning of the season and could potentially get us a comp pick? On a side note this team has been enjoyable to watch all year, but within the past few weeks the athleticism has been on full display and has really cranked it up a notch. Hopefully they can get the win tonight and make it five in a row! I haven’t checked before responding but raf would need to be on 2 of 3 top 100s (mlb, BA, ESPN) to qualify for comp pick.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 19, 2024 11:53:31 GMT -5
We want Abreu to do well no doubt, but would want want Rafaela to win because he was Top 100 ranked at the beginning of the season and could potentially get us a comp pick? On a side note this team has been enjoyable to watch all year, but within the past few weeks the athleticism has been on full display and has really cranked it up a notch. Hopefully they can get the win tonight and make it five in a row! I haven’t checked before responding but raf would need to be on 2 of 3 top 100s (mlb, BA, ESPN) to qualify for comp pick. I went back to the offseason national rankings threads. He was comfortably top 100 for BP and BA. He was 94th for MLB. And he wasn’t ranked in Kiley’s/ESPN. He should qualify. That being said I think he has a pretty long way to go to catch up to Cowser or even Abreu.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jun 19, 2024 11:56:41 GMT -5
That three game set against KC at home right before the all star break is looking pretty significant in terms of where this team goes. wild. was looking at this last night. KC and Minny play mid August and September which will be HUGE. Then Minny comes to town at the end of the season which will be possibly massive. Cautiously optimistic that last series with the twins will be putting us over the top for the WC. Twins have moved 1/2 game ahead of the Royals and Sox gained another 1/2 game with the Royals loss. 2 behind now. Hopefully Sox have moved up at least a slot by then, but if not, Royals come to Fenway for 3 games right before the AS break. Either way that looks like an important/ fun series.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 19, 2024 12:07:10 GMT -5
I haven’t checked before responding but raf would need to be on 2 of 3 top 100s (mlb, BA, ESPN) to qualify for comp pick. I went back to the offseason national rankings threads. He was comfortably top 100 for BP and BA. He was 94th for MLB. And he wasn’t ranked in Kiley’s/ESPN. He should qualify. That being said I think he has a pretty long way to go to catch up to Cowser or even Abreu. Rafaela's 16th in rookie WAR in the AL. He's also 5th on the Red Sox on that list, after Abreu, Hamilton, Slaten, and Criswell. But I believe he's 2nd in the AL after Gil since like April 25th or so.
Cowser has been slipping; just an 80 wRC+ since May 1st. Unfortunately Gil has not been. There's also Mason Miller, for those who think a relief pitcher should win this sort of thing.
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Post by itinerantherb on Jun 19, 2024 12:15:39 GMT -5
was looking at this last night. KC and Minny play mid August and September which will be HUGE. Then Minny comes to town at the end of the season which will be possibly massive. Cautiously optimistic that last series with the twins will be putting us over the top for the WC. Twins have moved 1/2 game ahead of the Royals and Sox gained another 1/2 game with the Royals loss. 2 behind now. Hopefully Sox have moved up at least a slot by then, but if not, Royals come to Fenway for 3 games right before the AS break. Either way that looks like an important/ fun series. The race for the second/third WCs has really shifted in the last week, with the Royals slipping into a dead heat with the Twins and the clump of teams that had been right there with the Sox (Jays, Rays, Astros, Rangers, Tigers) all falling 3+ games behind them. You don't even have to squint to see them making the postseason, especially if we get Abreu and Casas back sooner rather than later.
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Post by LoneStarSox on Jun 19, 2024 12:16:06 GMT -5
I haven’t checked before responding but raf would need to be on 2 of 3 top 100s (mlb, BA, ESPN) to qualify for comp pick. I went back to the offseason national rankings threads. He was comfortably top 100 for BP and BA. He was 94th for MLB. And he wasn’t ranked in Kiley’s/ESPN. He should qualify. That being said I think he has a pretty long way to go to catch up to Cowser or even Abreu. I just quickly looked up cowsers counting stats because I thought he’d be WAY ahead as you speculated and here they are atm side by side by side… Cowser: Avg/HR/RBI/Hits/SB—Bwar (Games) .234/9/31/47/5–1.2 (69) Abreu: Avg/HR/RBI/Hits/SB—Bwar (Games) .272/6/22/46/7—1.9 (53) Rafaela: Avg/HR/RBI/Hits/SB—Bwar (Games) .251/8/41/64/10—1.5 (73)
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 19, 2024 12:17:07 GMT -5
I went back to the offseason national rankings threads. He was comfortably top 100 for BP and BA. He was 94th for MLB. And he wasn’t ranked in Kiley’s/ESPN. He should qualify. That being said I think he has a pretty long way to go to catch up to Cowser or even Abreu. Rafaela's 16th in rookie WAR in the AL. He's also 5th on the Red Sox on that list, after Abreu, Hamilton, Slaten, and Criswell. But I believe he's 2nd in the AL after Gil since like April 25th or so.
Cowser has been slipping; just an 80 wRC+ since May 1st. Unfortunately Gil has not been. There's also Mason Miller, for those who think a relief pitcher should win this sort of thing.
Yeah so he’s likely going to have to go nuclear to win it and I doubt that’s happening. Gil wasn’t top 100 so if he wins, so be it. Just want to avoid any team getting a comp pick, but especially the division rivals
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 19, 2024 12:17:30 GMT -5
I went back to the offseason national rankings threads. He was comfortably top 100 for BP and BA. He was 94th for MLB. And he wasn’t ranked in Kiley’s/ESPN. He should qualify. That being said I think he has a pretty long way to go to catch up to Cowser or even Abreu. Rafaela's 16th in rookie WAR in the AL. He's also 5th on the Red Sox on that list, after Abreu, Hamilton, Slaten, and Criswell. But I believe he's 2nd in the AL after Gil since like April 25th or so.
Cowser has been slipping; just an 80 wRC+ since May 1st. Unfortunately Gil has not been. There's also Mason Miller, for those who think a relief pitcher should win this sort of thing.
I personally buy more into the fWAR rankings, but FWIW B-ref rates him higher (and maybe voters are using that more?). I can't find a good way to sort the rookie leaderboards, but they have Gil at 3.0, Abreu at 1.9, Rafaela at 1.5, Miller at 1.5, Cowser at 1.2, and Hamilton at 1.2. I'd have to guess Gil has a decent lead right now, but you never know with pitchers.
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