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6/17-6/19 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jun 19, 2024 12:19:24 GMT -5
22 games until the all star break. We have momentum, lots of off days, players (Abrau, Martin and hopefully Casas ) returning and a reasonable easy schedule. Hopefully in playoff position by then. We are actually in the rare possible position of being both a playoff contender and sellers for the future at the deadline. Pivetta (Criswell) Jansen (Hendrix and bullpen by committee) O'Neil (Abreau) Martin (multiple candidates) Could get interesting. Breslow said he would not trade future wins for 2024 wins. He did not say he would risk 2024 wins to try and find more future wins. I sure hope they stand pat or if one of these important players are dealt the return makes the 2024 team better.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 19, 2024 12:27:23 GMT -5
Rafaela's 16th in rookie WAR in the AL. He's also 5th on the Red Sox on that list, after Abreu, Hamilton, Slaten, and Criswell. But I believe he's 2nd in the AL after Gil since like April 25th or so.
Cowser has been slipping; just an 80 wRC+ since May 1st. Unfortunately Gil has not been. There's also Mason Miller, for those who think a relief pitcher should win this sort of thing.
Yeah so he’s likely going to have to go nuclear to win it and I doubt that’s happening. Gil wasn’t top 100 so if he wins, so be it. Just want to avoid any team getting a comp pick, but especially the division rivals I don't know, actually. stunzi points out that Rafaela punches above his weight in terms of counting stats. His defense gets him on the highlight reels. If he can hit at about a league average level he might end up around 3 WAR (or better by bWAR, apparently), and that might just put him on top among position players. He'd still need some regression from Gil and maybe Miller, but I don't think it's a totally wild scenario.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 19, 2024 12:35:18 GMT -5
Yeah so he’s likely going to have to go nuclear to win it and I doubt that’s happening. Gil wasn’t top 100 so if he wins, so be it. Just want to avoid any team getting a comp pick, but especially the division rivals I don't know, actually. stunzi points out that Rafaela punches above his weight in terms of counting stats. His defense gets him on the highlight reels. If he can hit at about a league average level he might end up around 3 WAR (or better by bWAR, apparently), and that might just put him on top among position players. He'd still need some regression from Gil and maybe Miller, but I don't think it's a totally wild scenario. oh yeah that’s a good point because I was mostly looking at fWAR. Hopefully Gil comes back down to earth (and maybe Miller too because he gets a lot of talk), then it becomes a legit conversation.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 19, 2024 12:40:26 GMT -5
I went back to the offseason national rankings threads. He was comfortably top 100 for BP and BA. He was 94th for MLB. And he wasn’t ranked in Kiley’s/ESPN. He should qualify. That being said I think he has a pretty long way to go to catch up to Cowser or even Abreu. Rafaela's 16th in rookie WAR in the AL. He's also 5th on the Red Sox on that list, after Abreu, Hamilton, Slaten, and Criswell. But I believe he's 2nd in the AL after Gil since like April 25th or so.
Cowser has been slipping; just an 80 wRC+ since May 1st. Unfortunately Gil has not been. There's also Mason Miller, for those who think a relief pitcher should win this sort of thing.
Interesting. BR has him ahead of everyone but Abreu on the Red Sox. As I've mentioned before, this isn't just academic. There's valuation that rides on this. The assumption here is that the figures from Fangraphs are the ones accepted by this team and all the others in the majors, and by which they'll measure their investments.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 19, 2024 12:56:20 GMT -5
Rafaela's 16th in rookie WAR in the AL. He's also 5th on the Red Sox on that list, after Abreu, Hamilton, Slaten, and Criswell. But I believe he's 2nd in the AL after Gil since like April 25th or so.
Cowser has been slipping; just an 80 wRC+ since May 1st. Unfortunately Gil has not been. There's also Mason Miller, for those who think a relief pitcher should win this sort of thing.
Interesting. BR has him ahead of everyone but Abreu on the Red Sox. As I've mentioned before, this isn't just academic. There's valuation that rides on this. The assumption here is that the figures from Fangraphs are the ones accepted by this team and all the others in the majors, and by which they'll measure their investments. I think fWAR undervalues what he's worth *to the Red Sox* because his awful OAA at SS is holding his overall WAR down. But the team has only been playing him at SS due to injuries to other guys and because they have another excellent CFer in Duran as well. In other words, his positional flexibility has positive value for the Red Sox but it results in negative WAR value. (Of course if he could just go ahead and be the above-average shortstop his scouting report claims him to be that would be even better.)
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Post by kevfc89 on Jun 19, 2024 14:46:50 GMT -5
Yeah so he’s likely going to have to go nuclear to win it and I doubt that’s happening. Gil wasn’t top 100 so if he wins, so be it. Just want to avoid any team getting a comp pick, but especially the division rivals I don't know, actually. stunzi points out that Rafaela punches above his weight in terms of counting stats. His defense gets him on the highlight reels. If he can hit at about a league average level he might end up around 3 WAR (or better by bWAR, apparently), and that might just put him on top among position players. He'd still need some regression from Gil and maybe Miller, but I don't think it's a totally wild scenario. Voters might be swayed by narrative and good, round numbers. If he can somehow reach .270 with 20 homers and 20 steals and many defensive highlights I could see him pulling it out (he'd also accumulate a nice chunk of WAR in that case).
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 19, 2024 15:25:02 GMT -5
The big caveat with Abreu is that he's 3 for 27 (all singles) in high leverage (Index of 1.5 or higher). And it's actually worse than than that: he's 0 for his 5 highest PA's in average leverage (1.35 to 1.49). And he hit into 2 GDP's. And once when he walked in flat leverage that went to high as the inning progressed, he got picked off.
So that's 32 PA with LI 1.35 or bigger, and 32 outs made with that leverage. That's not good.
As you night expect from that, he has a 157 OPS+ vs. starters and an 85 vs. relievers faced for the first time. But he has another crazy split:
An 86 OPS+ in 43 PA vs. power pitches (top third for SO + BB), a 69 in 62 PA vs. average pitchers, and a 202 in 84 PA vs. finesse pitchers.
He also is 114, 118, 239 for FB / ave / GB pitchers (65, 96, 28 PA).
And of course he's 153 / 31 for RHP / LHP.
Meanwhile, O'Neill now has a 146 wRC+ ... compare 143 in 2021.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jun 19, 2024 15:25:42 GMT -5
Duran LF, Hamilton SS, O’Neill RF, Devers 3B, Yoshida DH, Valdez 2B, McGuire C, Smith 1B, Gonzalez CF
There are no typos
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jun 19, 2024 15:35:34 GMT -5
Duran LF, Hamilton SS, O’Neill RF, Devers 3B, Yoshida DH, Valdez 2B, McGuire C, Smith 1B, Gonzalez CF There are no typos Once again I'll say it. Cora has balls !!!
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Post by taiwansox on Jun 19, 2024 15:36:43 GMT -5
Duran LF, Hamilton SS, O’Neill RF, Devers 3B, Yoshida DH, Valdez 2B, McGuire C, Smith 1B, Gonzalez CF There are no typos Interesting…the only legit explanation is that everyone pulls the ball in the air against Bello??
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 19, 2024 15:43:58 GMT -5
Duran LF, Hamilton SS, O’Neill RF, Devers 3B, Yoshida DH, Valdez 2B, McGuire C, Smith 1B, Gonzalez CF There are no typos That’s a heat check lineup if I’ve ever seen one Romy does have a cannon though iirc so perhaps they like that in CF
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Post by keninten on Jun 19, 2024 15:44:28 GMT -5
Duran LF, Hamilton SS, O’Neill RF, Devers 3B, Yoshida DH, Valdez 2B, McGuire C, Smith 1B, Gonzalez CF There are no typos Interesting…the only legit explanation is that everyone pulls the ball in the air against Bello?? Yeah but I`d want Cedanne in CF so the other fielders could move closer to the lines.
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asm18
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Posts: 2,546
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Post by asm18 on Jun 19, 2024 15:46:26 GMT -5
Duran LF, Hamilton SS, O’Neill RF, Devers 3B, Yoshida DH, Valdez 2B, McGuire C, Smith 1B, Gonzalez CF There are no typos Interesting…the only legit explanation is that everyone pulls the ball in the air against Bello?? Maybe they can line up Romy on the grass behind second base because with Bello right now it will either be a ground ball or over the fence anyway
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jun 19, 2024 15:48:27 GMT -5
Interesting…the only legit explanation is that everyone pulls the ball in the air against Bello?? Yeah but I`d want Cedanne in CF so the other fielders could move closer to the lines. That is 2 nights off for Wong. Maybe they feel more comfortable that McQuire can influence Bello to pound the zone better.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Jun 19, 2024 16:05:45 GMT -5
Is the kid (Ced the entertainer) dinged up or are they just giving him a well deserved day off?
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Post by Guidas on Jun 19, 2024 16:21:41 GMT -5
“Ceddane is white hot right now!”
“Let’s give him a night off.”
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Post by chaimtime on Jun 19, 2024 16:25:06 GMT -5
The big caveat with Abreu is that he's 3 for 27 (all singles) in high leverage (Index of 1.5 or higher). And it's actually worse than than that: he's 0 for his 5 highest PA's in average leverage (1.35 to 1.49). And he hit into 2 GDP's. And once when he walked in flat leverage that went to high as the inning progressed, he got picked off.
So that's 32 PA with LI 1.35 or bigger, and 32 outs made with that leverage. That's not good.
As you night expect from that, he has a 157 OPS+ vs. starters and an 85 vs. relievers faced for the first time. But he has another crazy split:
An 86 OPS+ in 43 PA vs. power pitches (top third for SO + BB), a 69 in 62 PA vs. average pitchers, and a 202 in 84 PA vs. finesse pitchers.
He also is 114, 118, 239 for FB / ave / GB pitchers (65, 96, 28 PA).
And of course he's 153 / 31 for RHP / LHP.
Meanwhile, O'Neill now has a 146 wRC+ ... compare 143 in 2021.
I feel like this tracks well with what we know about Abreu. Good pitch recognition, good plate discipline, can adjust to the offspeed, has the power to hit offspeed pitches with authority, has a big platoon split, and has a swing that’s susceptible to high fastballs. If I had to guess, the relievers he’s facing are either lefties or power righties, so those two main weaknesses will be exposed more in those scenarios. And he’s probably facing relievers more often in high-leverage scenarios. The obvious conclusion is that his two main weaknesses as a hitter are easily exploited in late game situations. That’s obviously not great, because it’s hard to call a guy a regular if there’s a good chance you’re pinch-hitting for him in the 7th. On the other hand, he doesn’t need to make a ton of progress in those areas to make himself a much more useful player. Going from “atrocious” to merely “not great” in late-and-close situations is an incredibly valuable improvement.
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Post by Jimmy on Jun 19, 2024 16:28:00 GMT -5
“Ceddane is white hot right now!” “Let’s give him a night off.” Unless he’s busted up I’ll add this to my (unpopular)“reasons I don’t like Cora” scrapbook
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 19, 2024 16:52:15 GMT -5
Funny... there were people demanding he be sent down not that long ago.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 19, 2024 17:10:38 GMT -5
Just put 9 out there and win ! Let the Good times roll !!
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Post by cba82 on Jun 19, 2024 17:37:31 GMT -5
Yeah but I`d want Cedanne in CF so the other fielders could move closer to the lines. That is 2 nights off for Wong. Maybe they feel more comfortable that McQuire can influence Bello to pound the zone better. Pretty sure there’s a rule that visiting Canadian-born players are required to play the majority of games in a series.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 19, 2024 17:44:37 GMT -5
Fingers crossed for a great outing by Bello tonight
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Post by incandenza on Jun 19, 2024 18:09:46 GMT -5
There's something very Canadian about how hideous that banner ad behind home plate is.
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Post by LoneStarSox on Jun 19, 2024 18:13:33 GMT -5
Good walk. Gotta make this guy work.
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Post by ixnayexxus on Jun 19, 2024 18:19:43 GMT -5
Oh, please don't be one of those games
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