SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
7/9-7/11 Red Sox vs. Athletics Series Thread
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,510
|
Post by asm18 on Jul 9, 2024 21:38:13 GMT -5
6.5 Games back of Baltimore 3.5 Games back of New York Let’s kick down that fucking door
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 9, 2024 21:45:02 GMT -5
Sox clearly could benefit from another starter.
Wingenter pretty much as advertised.
|
|
|
Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 9, 2024 21:51:05 GMT -5
3.5 back of the Yankees, let's see whose ahead at the ASB There’s a chance we catch them by the end of the month. But, take a peek at their August sked. They will pass us. 9 game homestand Toronto, Angels and Texas 3 at White So and 3 at Detroit Cleveland 3 Colorado 3 3 at Washington 2 St L In September they have series against Texas, Cubs, Oakland and Pitt
|
|
|
Post by itinerantherb on Jul 9, 2024 21:51:14 GMT -5
Casas interviewing Dom Smith...priceless He's a Netflix dream.
|
|
|
Post by patford on Jul 9, 2024 21:52:50 GMT -5
3.5 back of the Yankees, let's see whose ahead at the ASB The biggest laugh I had today was seeing Cashman say he's joining the Yankees in Tampa. What a clown. And when did sunglasses become permanently attached to his face? Does he ever take those off? When is the last time anyone saw him without them? Is it because the Yankees future is so bright?
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Jul 9, 2024 21:52:55 GMT -5
6.5 Games back of Baltimore 3.5 Games back of New York Let’s kick down that fucking door
|
|
|
Post by patford on Jul 9, 2024 21:55:14 GMT -5
Casas interviewing Dom Smith...priceless He's a Netflix dream. What would have been truly hysterical would be if Smith had given a three word answer to that speech of a question. "Just play hard." Then after the second five paragraph question, "It's all good."
|
|
|
Post by strike23 on Jul 9, 2024 21:59:26 GMT -5
3.5 back of the Yankees, let's see whose ahead at the ASB There’s a chance we catch them by the end of the month. But, take a peek at their August sked. They will pass us. 9 game homestand Toronto, Angels and Texas 3 at White So and 3 at Detroit Cleveland 3 Colorado 3 3 at Washington 2 St L In September they have series against Texas, Cubs, Oakland and Pitt Counterpoint: they just got swept by Cincinnati
|
|
|
Post by itinerantherb on Jul 9, 2024 22:02:48 GMT -5
What would have been truly hysterical would be if Smith had given a three word answer to that speech of a question. "Just play hard." Then after the second five paragraph question, "It's all good." Dom was definitely game for the gag, which I appreciate.
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 9, 2024 22:19:55 GMT -5
Red Sox now just over 50% to make the playoffs after tonight's game.
July stats so far (not including tonight's game)
Duran - .138-1-1 Rafaela - .250-3-9 Raffy - .375-3-10 O'Neill - .333-0-2 Wong - .143-0-1 Abreu - .063-0-0 Hamilton - .143-0-1 Smith - .333-0-0 Valdez - .455-0-1 (just sent down) Masa - .280-1-6 Refsnyder - .000-0-0 McGuire - .286-0-1 Romy - .300-1-1
Offense is really being carried by Rafaela, Raffy and Masa so far in July. Duran, Wong, Abreu, Hamilton, Refsnyder notable slumpers for the month so far. Abreu's dinger tonight a good sign.
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Jul 9, 2024 22:41:01 GMT -5
I’d rather have Cam Booser than some of these other arms currently in the pen.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 9, 2024 22:49:21 GMT -5
Pretty sad a game that was 11 to 2 in the 6th ended up needing to call to get Jansen warming up just in case. Not what you want to see even if he didn't have to come in. 99.6% win expectancy when they "needed" to get Jansen up.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 9, 2024 23:56:07 GMT -5
There’s a chance we catch them by the end of the month. But, take a peek at their August sked. They will pass us. 9 game homestand Toronto, Angels and Texas 3 at White So and 3 at Detroit Cleveland 3 Colorado 3 3 at Washington 2 St L In September they have series against Texas, Cubs, Oakland and Pitt Counterpoint: they just got swept by Cincinnati Counter counterpoint: outside of a series against Colorado, Toronto and Detroit, the Sox have a very challenging schedule for 6 weeks after the break. Going need to win as much as you can this last week. I will counter my counter counterpoint that fortunately we are catching the Dodgers at a time where they won’t have Mookie, Yamamoto or Glasnow.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 9, 2024 23:59:04 GMT -5
This guy sucks, send him back to the scrap heap. What better game to see what you've got and what needs fixing? Given the outstanding success in building a pitching staff I'm more than willing to cut them some slack. If anyone can figure out how to regroove this guy, it's Bailey.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 10, 2024 0:28:21 GMT -5
Bello had an 0.71 xFIP and 8.44 ERA in this game.
His xFIP is down to 3.67, which is 33rd out of 95 starters, min. 80 IP. Tied with Jared Jones and a hair better than Imanaga. But his home run rate is worst in the majors and his BABIP is 4th-worst.
Those aren't sustainable numbers. He's going to be fine.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 10, 2024 6:51:41 GMT -5
Bello had an 0.71 xFIP and 8.44 ERA in this game. His xFIP is down to 3.67, which is 33rd out of 95 starters, min. 80 IP. Tied with Jared Jones and a hair better than Imanaga. But his home run rate is worst in the majors and his BABIP is 4th-worst. Those aren't sustainable numbers. He's going to be fine.
What about his hard hit rate? Having a high BABIP is a good signal. I don't know if his home run rate is a positive signal if guys are hitting the ball hard off Bello. I'm not being smart. I'm legitimately asking about those numbers because I don't know. It just doesn't feel like guys are getting a bunch of lollipop singles off him or fly balls that just inch out. Butler hit a 457 yard bomb off him. I'm worried he's one of these guys who can rack up strike outs, but when he gets hit, he gets hit hard.
|
|
|
Post by strike23 on Jul 10, 2024 6:56:05 GMT -5
Counterpoint: they just got swept by Cincinnati Counter counterpoint: outside of a series against Colorado, Toronto and Detroit, the Sox have a very challenging schedule for 6 weeks after the break. Going need to win as much as you can this last week. I will counter my counter counterpoint that fortunately we are catching the Dodgers at a time where they won’t have Mookie, Yamamoto or Glasnow. Yup, not gonna be easy but I'm just here to hate on the Yankees and root for the Sox
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,639
|
Post by cdj on Jul 10, 2024 7:03:42 GMT -5
Pretty sad a game that was 11 to 2 in the 6th ended up needing to call to get Jansen warming up just in case. Not what you want to see even if he didn't have to come in. 99.6% win expectancy when they "needed" to get Jansen up. Fair but they just won a game being on the wrong end of those odds a handful of days ago. You would ideally like it so 11-2 doesn’t become a save situation your closer has to get up for I made the Ort comparisons….didn’t Kaleb do something similar in one of his first outings?
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Jul 10, 2024 7:28:16 GMT -5
Bello had an 0.71 xFIP and 8.44 ERA in this game. His xFIP is down to 3.67, which is 33rd out of 95 starters, min. 80 IP. Tied with Jared Jones and a hair better than Imanaga. But his home run rate is worst in the majors and his BABIP is 4th-worst. Those aren't sustainable numbers. He's going to be fine.
What about his hard hit rate? Having a high BABIP is a good signal. I don't know if his home run rate is a positive signal if guys are hitting the ball hard off Bello. I'm not being smart. I'm legitimately asking about those numbers because I don't know. It just doesn't feel like guys are getting a bunch of lollipop singles off him or fly balls that just inch out. Butler hit a 457 yard bomb off him. I'm worried he's one of these guys who can rack up strike outs, but when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. Bello’s xERA (which is based on the quality of contact against him) is 4.45 or 67th out of 97 starters with 80 IP. I still think he’s going to be okay, and that’s still a run better than his actual ERA, but yeah people are hitting the ball hard against him. He’s playing like a #5 starter right now. Hopefully he can take a step up in the second half.
|
|
|
Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 10, 2024 7:28:30 GMT -5
We haven't done this in awhile - the bullpen trust meter. My view trust - Jansen, Kelly mostly trust - Slaten, Bernardino, Winck low trust - Weissert, Andeson, Wingenter (already) Too soon to tell - Horn injured - Martin would be trust, Mata way too soon to tell A bit light in trust arms, IMO Agree. But, Wink isn’t in the pen. Really hope Martin comes back after All Star Break. I’d also like to know why the hell Booser got sent down. We can’t afford to sit him. But, Bernie could probably use a break. Not as sharp as he was earlier.
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,510
|
Post by asm18 on Jul 10, 2024 7:29:12 GMT -5
99.6% win expectancy when they "needed" to get Jansen up. Fair but they just won a game being on the wrong end of those odds a handful of days ago. You would ideally like it so 11-2 doesn’t become a save situation your closer has to get up for I made the Ort comparisons….didn’t Kaleb do something similar in one of his first outings? Yes you’re thinking of the Red Sox game vs Baltimore last year where Ort gave up 5 runs in the 9th and they brought in Kenley for two outs before Ort completely botched it. It was 4/25/23. Was at the game last night and it was one of those weird vibes where you have an 11-2 lead and it 100% felt safe… but you have certain guys (Weissert/Winteger) walking dudes or getting behind in counts (the Gelof HR in the 9th was on a 3-1 count - up 6 runs!) like they don’t realize they’re pitching in a blowout. Even Bello, for all his k’s - he had two walks against the 8 and 9 hitter. The 11 runs that happened five seconds in really masked how sloppy the pitching was.
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 10, 2024 7:41:06 GMT -5
We haven't done this in awhile - the bullpen trust meter. My view trust - Jansen, Kelly mostly trust - Slaten, Bernardino, Winck low trust - Weissert, Andeson, Wingenter (already) Too soon to tell - Horn injured - Martin would be trust, Mata way too soon to tell A bit light in trust arms, IMO Agree. But, Wink isn’t in the pen. Really hope Martin comes back after All Star Break. I’d also like to know why the hell Booser got sent down. We can’t afford to sit him. But, Bernie could probably use a break. Not as sharp as he was earlier. He's listed as in the pen on this site's active roster, hence my placement
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 10, 2024 7:59:43 GMT -5
I’d rather have Cam Booser than some of these other arms currently in the pen. Agreed, I do not understand bringing up Wingenter at all. He needed to be added to the 40-man, not the 26-man roster. He should be sent to AAA along with Weissert (for a break), and Criswell (added to the rotation) and Booser (when eligible) recalled.
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Jul 10, 2024 8:35:34 GMT -5
3.5 back of the Yankees, let's see whose ahead at the ASB There’s a chance we catch them by the end of the month. But, take a peek at their August sked. They will pass us. 9 game homestand Toronto, Angels and Texas 3 at White So and 3 at Detroit Cleveland 3 Colorado 3 3 at Washington 2 St L In September they have series against Texas, Cubs, Oakland and Pitt Our remaining SOS is .505 and theirs is .497. It's not a big difference. Especially when 7 of our "hardest" games are against NYY lol
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 10, 2024 8:41:00 GMT -5
What about his hard hit rate? Having a high BABIP is a good signal. I don't know if his home run rate is a positive signal if guys are hitting the ball hard off Bello. I'm not being smart. I'm legitimately asking about those numbers because I don't know. It just doesn't feel like guys are getting a bunch of lollipop singles off him or fly balls that just inch out. Butler hit a 457 yard bomb off him. I'm worried he's one of these guys who can rack up strike outs, but when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. Bello’s xERA (which is based on the quality of contact against him) is 4.45 or 67th out of 97 starters with 80 IP. I still think he’s going to be okay, and that’s still a run better than his actual ERA, but yeah people are hitting the ball hard against him. He’s playing like a #5 starter right now. Hopefully he can take a step up in the second half. My totally subjective, numbers-free take on Bello:
- He looks to me like a powerful machine whose parts just aren't quite working together smoothly. The ability is there; the consistency, approach, and demeanor just sometimes get a little wonky. It seems likely to me that these things get smoothed out with experience.
- But he also seems unlucky to me (as the numbers suggest). He'll get ground balls when he needs them but they'll trickle through. He'll get killed by bloops as he was last night. Maybe some of this "bad luck" is an inability to control the damage when he needs to, which, again, he'll get better at with experience. But I don't think all of it is. For instance, maybe he gives up some hard contact, but no one is going to sustain a 19% HR/FB rate.
- He's passionate. He cares a lot about his performance. Reports are that he's very willing to learn and do what it takes to improve. That's more reason to think he'll get there eventually - and, I would predict, sooner rather than later.
|
|
|