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7/9-7/11 Red Sox vs. Athletics Series Thread
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Post by trotman on Jul 10, 2024 8:53:38 GMT -5
Bello’s xERA (which is based on the quality of contact against him) is 4.45 or 67th out of 97 starters with 80 IP. I still think he’s going to be okay, and that’s still a run better than his actual ERA, but yeah people are hitting the ball hard against him. He’s playing like a #5 starter right now. Hopefully he can take a step up in the second half. My totally subjective, numbers-free take on Bello:
- He looks to me like a powerful machine whose parts just aren't quite working together smoothly. The ability is there; the consistency, approach, and demeanor just sometimes get a little wonky. It seems likely to me that these things get smoothed out with experience.
- But he also seems unlucky to me (as the numbers suggest). He'll get ground balls when he needs them but they'll trickle through. He'll get killed by bloops as he was last night. Maybe some of this "bad luck" is an inability to control the damage when he needs to, which, again, he'll get better at with experience. But I don't think all of it is. For instance, maybe he gives up some hard contact, but no one is going to sustain a 19% HR/FB rate.
- He's passionate. He cares a lot about his performance. Reports are that he's very willing to learn and do what it takes to improve. That's more reason to think he'll get there eventually - and, I would predict, sooner rather than later.
I've been experiencing schadenfreude while checking out Yankee blogs or reddit and weirdly Bello profiles very similar to how Yankee fans talk about Carlos Rodon. Rodon has great stuff but but the approach and demeanor on the mound allow things to unravel. Not saying they're similar pitchers just more so how the respective fan bases feel about the other. Granted the Yankees are paying $27m/year through 2028.
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Post by puzzler on Jul 10, 2024 9:28:08 GMT -5
Bello’s xERA (which is based on the quality of contact against him) is 4.45 or 67th out of 97 starters with 80 IP. I still think he’s going to be okay, and that’s still a run better than his actual ERA, but yeah people are hitting the ball hard against him. He’s playing like a #5 starter right now. Hopefully he can take a step up in the second half. My totally subjective, numbers-free take on Bello:
- He looks to me like a powerful machine whose parts just aren't quite working together smoothly. The ability is there; the consistency, approach, and demeanor just sometimes get a little wonky. It seems likely to me that these things get smoothed out with experience.
- But he also seems unlucky to me (as the numbers suggest). He'll get ground balls when he needs them but they'll trickle through. He'll get killed by bloops as he was last night. Maybe some of this "bad luck" is an inability to control the damage when he needs to, which, again, he'll get better at with experience. But I don't think all of it is. For instance, maybe he gives up some hard contact, but no one is going to sustain a 19% HR/FB rate.
- He's passionate. He cares a lot about his performance. Reports are that he's very willing to learn and do what it takes to improve. That's more reason to think he'll get there eventually - and, I would predict, sooner rather than later.
I'm much less optimistic. His last two starts he's been hit really, really hard against two free swinging teams. The results have been exactly what I'd expect, higher K% with tons of hard contact. Against better teams, the K% goes down, the walks and pitches go up. Based on his inability to control his emotions, I don't see him getting better without a bunch more pain.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,510
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Post by asm18 on Jul 10, 2024 9:41:59 GMT -5
Kenley was in with Rob Bradford and talked about moment when team started to click - including Jarren taking leadership role after first Yankees loss a month ago (link here)
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Post by seamus on Jul 10, 2024 10:19:45 GMT -5
I really do think Bello's underlying metrics are better (not great, but better) than his results show and there is cause for optimism moving forward. However, it seems clear they haven't found quite the right pitch mix for him yet - a sinker/changeup combo is hard to pull off unless you can really locate the sinker, and Bello seems to be leaving it up too often. It reminds me of Ian's report about Perales earlier this summer, where the addition of the cutter as a pitch he could throw for a strike helped the rest of his arsenal play up, even if it didn't grade out as more than average independently. I think they either need to figure out a way to make Bello's four-seamer playable or add something like a cutter so that there's a better option for getting called strikes. There's just not enough pitch shapes to make hitters uncomfortable right now unless he's got his A-game.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 10, 2024 10:54:17 GMT -5
Something weird to me is that I feel like the Red Sox have played good teams pretty well this year but actually they are 34-14 against teams under .500 and 16-26 against teams above .500.
I suppose it's because in their series against teams above .500 since the start of June they are 3-1-1 but they did not win a series in April or May against a team that is currently above .500 (though some were at the time) so I'm suffering from recency bias but hopefully the team has actually made a step forward.
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Post by LoneStarSox on Jul 10, 2024 10:58:42 GMT -5
I hate John Tomase
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 10, 2024 11:15:57 GMT -5
What did this dingus say now?
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 10, 2024 11:17:15 GMT -5
What did this dingus say now? he opened his mouth
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 10, 2024 11:57:46 GMT -5
Something weird to me is that I feel like the Red Sox have played good teams pretty well this year but actually they are 34-14 against teams under .500 and 16-26 against teams above .500. I suppose it's because in their series against teams above .500 since the start of June they are 3-1-1 but they did not win a series in April or May against a team that is currently above .500 (though some were at the time) so I'm suffering from recency bias but hopefully the team has actually made a step forward. Yes, the Red Sox are playing much better against over .500 teams than earlier this season. Just look at their 1-5 record against the Oriels vs 4-2 against the MFY as an example. It definitely make a difference when you play teams also. If the Red Sox had play MFY in April it may have turned out much different than now. I would rather lose to the Oriels and beat the shit out of the Yankees if given the choice, so I am glad the Red Sox got the MFY in July rather than earlier.
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Post by brendan98 on Jul 10, 2024 12:27:17 GMT -5
Bello’s xERA (which is based on the quality of contact against him) is 4.45 or 67th out of 97 starters with 80 IP. I still think he’s going to be okay, and that’s still a run better than his actual ERA, but yeah people are hitting the ball hard against him. He’s playing like a #5 starter right now. Hopefully he can take a step up in the second half. My totally subjective, numbers-free take on Bello: - He looks to me like a powerful machine whose parts just aren't quite working together smoothly. The ability is there; the consistency, approach, and demeanor just sometimes get a little wonky. It seems likely to me that these things get smoothed out with experience. - But he also seems unlucky to me (as the numbers suggest). He'll get ground balls when he needs them but they'll trickle through. He'll get killed by bloops as he was last night. Maybe some of this "bad luck" is an inability to control the damage when he needs to, which, again, he'll get better at with experience. But I don't think all of it is. For instance, maybe he gives up some hard contact, but no one is going to sustain a 19% HR/FB rate.
- He's passionate. He cares a lot about his performance. Reports are that he's very willing to learn and do what it takes to improve. That's more reason to think he'll get there eventually - and, I would predict, sooner rather than later.
So, quite randomly, I’ve not been able to watch many of Bello’s starts live this season. Seems like almost every time he pitches something else comes up that keeps me from watching. I have been able to follow on the MLB app on my phone, and watching the pitch locations where he gives up damage is infuriating, I find myself yelling at my phone “how can you throw a fastball right down the middle on an 0-2 count” or something very similar, way too often. I have been re-watching his games at home and can verify that he simply throws a lot of pitches in really bad spots. I think his stuff is good (though I’d like to see him add a pitch with more horizontal movement), and I honestly do not think it is an oversimplification that he just needs to locate MUCH, MUCH BETTER!
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Post by bettsonmookie on Jul 10, 2024 16:45:27 GMT -5
ChiSox jumping on Twins early in the 2nd game of their DH. Chicago already took G1.
Tonight feels like a good night to even up with Minnesota for WC #2.
Lots of good pitching matchups around MLB tonight. A great night for baseball.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 10, 2024 17:43:14 GMT -5
yo. soxfaninnj......sauce is stirrin'. LOL. Historically, that is a good sign.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 10, 2024 17:48:14 GMT -5
ChiSox jumping on Twins early in the 2nd game of their DH. Chicago already took G1. Tonight feels like a good night to even up with Minnesota for WC #2. Lots of good pitching matchups around MLB tonight. A great night for baseball. I'm rooting for the Astros, Twins and Royals. I don't just want the Sox to get in. I want the Yankees to fall out of it.
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Post by cheers on Jul 10, 2024 18:03:14 GMT -5
ChiSox jumping on Twins early in the 2nd game of their DH. Chicago already took G1. Tonight feels like a good night to even up with Minnesota for WC #2. Lots of good pitching matchups around MLB tonight. A great night for baseball. I'm rooting for the Astros, Twins and Royals. I don't just want the Sox to get in. I want the Yankees to fall out of it. Petty and spiteful!!! I'm in.
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Post by keninten on Jul 10, 2024 18:03:16 GMT -5
I hope CB Bucknor is not behind the plate but I think so.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 10, 2024 18:20:46 GMT -5
Personally hoping for a 20-20-20-20 (SB, HR, 3B, 3B) season for Duran. I am guessing that has never been done.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 10, 2024 18:23:13 GMT -5
You know Ref is struggling when he K's against this type of pitcher. Fortunately, it won't last.
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Post by cheers on Jul 10, 2024 18:26:07 GMT -5
Personally hoping for a 20-20-20-20 (SB, HR, 3B, 3B) season for Duran. I am guessing that has never been done. I bet Carl Crawford might have got close? Checking. Edit: Never hit more than 19 3B or 19 HR. Boy, he had some good years though. Sadly, never under contract with the Sox. Talk about a signing that I liked that went south almost immediately...
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 10, 2024 18:28:54 GMT -5
Personally hoping for a 20-20-20-20 (SB, HR, 3B, 3B) season for Duran. I am guessing that has never been done. I bet Carl Crawford might have got close? Checking. Curtis Granderson and Jimmy Rollins both did it in 2007. Those are the only cases I can find ever
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 10, 2024 18:33:58 GMT -5
If this was 20 years ago I'd be excited about Sears' pitch count after their pen was worked hard last night, but this is 2024 so the last guy in this lousy pen probably throws 98 with a killer slider or whatever.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 10, 2024 18:37:06 GMT -5
I bet Carl Crawford might have got close? Checking. Curtis Granderson and Jimmy Rollins both did it in 2007. Those are the only cases I can find ever i am a bit surprised becuase of the triples thing, but thanks for the research !
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Post by cheers on Jul 10, 2024 18:37:15 GMT -5
If this was 20 years ago I'd be excited about Sears' pitch count after their pen was worked hard last night, but this is 2024 so the last guy in this lousy pen probably throws 98 with a killer slider or whatever. We should trade for that guy then??
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,011
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Post by mobaz on Jul 10, 2024 18:40:21 GMT -5
Personally hoping for a 20-20-20-20 (SB, HR, 3B, 3B) season for Duran. I am guessing that has never been done. I bet Carl Crawford might have got close? Checking. Edit: Never hit more than 19 3B or 19 HR. Boy, he had some good years though. Sadly, never under contract with the Sox. Talk about a signing that I liked that went south almost immediately... I made a post of all the similar seasons back in the Duran Duran thread (looking for 40 2b 20 3b 20 SB 10 Hr based on his splits at the time. No one was at that pace, but his trends have changed a bit since then
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,011
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Post by mobaz on Jul 10, 2024 18:43:32 GMT -5
I bet Carl Crawford might have got close? Checking. Edit: Never hit more than 19 3B or 19 HR. Boy, he had some good years though. Sadly, never under contract with the Sox. Talk about a signing that I liked that went south almost immediately... I made a post of all the similar seasons back in the Duran Duran thread (looking for 40 2b 20 3b 20 SB 10 Hr based on his splits at the time. No one was at that pace, but his trends have changed a bit since then From June 19th: mobaz Veteran Jun 19, 2024 at 7:45pm Right now, Duran is on pace to exceed 40 doubles, 20 triples, 10 HR, and 30 steals. I couldn't find anyone hitting all those thresholds in modern baseball. Some similar seasons came from Jimmy Rollins 2007 (his MVP, 38/20/30/41), Curtis Granderson 2007 (38/28/28/26), Carl Crawford 2005 (33/15/15/46), Jose Reyes 2008 (37/19/16/56), Lance Johnson 1996 (31/21/9/50), Juan Samuel 1984 (36/19/15/72), and Ryne Sanberg 1984 (36/19/19/32). The doubles is a tough threshold to match with that many triples. He is a lot of fun.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,639
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Post by cdj on Jul 10, 2024 18:56:24 GMT -5
Don’t hate walking Rooker there
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