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7/12-7/14 Red Sox vs. Royals Series Thread
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Post by ramireja on Jul 12, 2024 7:57:37 GMT -5
7/12 Red Sox (RHP Cooper Criswell, 3-3, 4.15, 52.0 IP, 49K:13BB) vs. Royals (LHP Cole Ragans, 5-6, 3.28, 109.2 IP, 134K:37BB) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 7/13 Red Sox (RHP Kutter Crawford, 5-7, 3.24, 105.2 IP, 106K:28BB) vs. Royals (RHP Seth Lugo, 11-3, 2.21, 122.0 IP, 110K:29BB) 4:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 7/14 Red Sox (RHP Brayan Bello, 9-5, 5.40, 83.1 IP, 82K:32BB) vs. Royals (RHP Brady Singer, 5-5, 2.93, 101.1 IP, 96K:31BB) 1:35 pm ET, NESN/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2024: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jul 12, 2024 8:01:57 GMT -5
I know people are enthused about how the Sox are playing right now, but these are tough pitching matchups this weekend. With the struggles this team has had in Fenway this season, we might be less than thrilled about the outcome of this series.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 12, 2024 8:12:16 GMT -5
Winning 2/3 would be great. LFG!!
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,375
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Post by asm18 on Jul 12, 2024 8:13:59 GMT -5
The Royals rotation is 3rd in MLB in ERA (3.50) and 7th in K/9 (8.78).
However, their bullpen is 21st in ERA (4.33) and 29th in K/9 (7.34) - ahead of only the esteemed Rockies of Colorado.
Get to that pen early
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 12, 2024 8:24:39 GMT -5
Hindsight is obviously 20/20 but it's a real bummer the Sox didn't outbid the Royals for Lugo when looking at his stats right now. They'd probably be 2-3 wins better with him in the rotation right now.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,932
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 12, 2024 9:00:45 GMT -5
Hindsight is obviously 20/20 but it's a real bummer the Sox didn't outbid the Royals for Lugo when looking at his stats right now. They'd probably be 2-3 wins better with him in the rotation right now. Yeah, Lugo over Giolito would have worked out great. It's just another example of how so many things with BB are a crapshoot. Despite all the money and expertise teams pour into scouting and analytics, you just never know what's going to happen.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2024 9:11:39 GMT -5
Hindsight is obviously 20/20 but it's a real bummer the Sox didn't outbid the Royals for Lugo when looking at his stats right now. They'd probably be 2-3 wins better with him in the rotation right now. It's maddening that they were seemingly in on both Lugo and Imanaga but got outbid on both and then ended up like $12 million under the LTT anyway.
Has no one complained about this aspect of their offseason yet? Well let me be the first!
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 12, 2024 9:32:04 GMT -5
as TearsIn04 points out as well, chances are if they'd gotten Lugo or Imanga they don't sign Giolito and end up under the LT anyway. I will not claim that I figured either one would have been as effective as they have been so far this year but they were both guys I wanted them to sign, not that I had any issues with Giolito's deal at the time either.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 12, 2024 9:54:19 GMT -5
I think at the AAVs they could’ve signed both Imanaga and Lugo rather than Giolito and been under the LTT, and they could’ve created even more room if needed by having the Bello and Rafaela extensions kick in in 2025 instead of 2024
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 12, 2024 11:26:33 GMT -5
Woulda, coulda, shouda. They also could have traded Duran, kept Rafaela in the minors for seasoning and put Houck in the bullpen.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 12, 2024 11:29:41 GMT -5
Woulda, coulda, shouda. They also could have traded Duran, kept Rafaela in the minors for seasoning and put Houck in the bullpen. Funny how nobody seems to mention Montgomery and Snell.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2024 11:33:03 GMT -5
Woulda, coulda, shouda. They also could have traded Duran, kept Rafaela in the minors for seasoning and put Houck in the bullpen. Funny how nobody seems to mention Montgomery and Snell. To everyone's credit, no one wanted Snell in the first place.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 12, 2024 11:34:01 GMT -5
Woulda, coulda, shouda. They also could have traded Duran, kept Rafaela in the minors for seasoning and put Houck in the bullpen. do we need to include a compliment every time we make a critique? Or can we have some basic understanding that criticizing one decision doesn’t mean we think the team/player in discussion is stupid or does everything wrong or whatever Add: and no one is even really criticizing the team here, woulda been nice that’s all
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 12, 2024 12:05:16 GMT -5
Hindsight is obviously 20/20 but it's a real bummer the Sox didn't outbid the Royals for Lugo when looking at his stats right now. They'd probably be 2-3 wins better with him in the rotation right now. Yeah, Lugo over Giolito would have worked out great. It's just another example of how so many things with BB are a crapshoot. Despite all the money and expertise teams pour into scouting and analytics, you just never know what's going to happen. Lugo was the best choice in retrospect. Pre-season I asked the question who was out there that they might sign and yes, hindsight is wonderful given Lugo's performance to date. But foresight on the board questioned the buzz about Montgomery and Snell and rightly so. That's the maze that FOs live in as well. It's a multiple-choice quiz.
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Post by seamus on Jul 12, 2024 12:15:31 GMT -5
I think both Kutter and Bello are going to put up good starts and we'll take the series, but Friday Sox against a lefty isn't a great recipe for success. Hopefully they can work some counts and get to the bullpen early.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Jul 12, 2024 13:02:22 GMT -5
Assuming Westbrook gets the start at 2nd tonight with Romy at 1B?
Can someone please explain to me the rationale behind Westbrook over Sogard at this point? Is he better than I realize? These are high leverage games and he has holes in his game in a way Sogie doesn’t.
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Post by puzzler on Jul 12, 2024 13:27:10 GMT -5
Assuming Westbrook gets the start at 2nd tonight with Romy at 1B? Can someone please explain to me the rationale behind Westbrook over Sogard at this point? Is he better than I realize? These are high leverage games and he has holes in his game in a way Sogie doesn’t. What specific holes are you referring to?
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 12, 2024 13:31:37 GMT -5
Hindsight is obviously 20/20 but it's a real bummer the Sox didn't outbid the Royals for Lugo when looking at his stats right now. They'd probably be 2-3 wins better with him in the rotation right now. Counterpoint: Lugo is mid. He's rocking a .264 BABIP, 85% LOB, and 8% HR/FB so far this year, which are all absurdly lucky and unsustainable. 3.84 xERA is solid, but he wouldn't be clearly beating out anyone in our rotation besides Bello, who is obviously going nowhere. And it's hard to hold it against Giolito that he got injured; he could easily have been a better signing if he stayed healthy. Lugo's fastball is down 1.2 mph this year and magically jumped 100 RPM to by far the highest level of his career, well above even when he was relieving so thats, uh... interesting? He'll also likely be running into workload concerns soon (146 IP last year was by far his max after being a reliever for much of his career, and he's already up to 122 IP), is 34 years old, and has two years left on his deal... I'm good.
I'm kickiing dirt about Imanaga for sure though. I was so in on him during the offseason, then I assumed I was missing something because of how low the bids ended up being, but turns out he's a baller after all.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Jul 12, 2024 13:36:13 GMT -5
Assuming Westbrook gets the start at 2nd tonight with Romy at 1B? Can someone please explain to me the rationale behind Westbrook over Sogard at this point? Is he better than I realize? These are high leverage games and he has holes in his game in a way Sogie doesn’t. What specific holes are you referring to? Lack of athleticism and versatility and no standout offensive skill (from my view) above Sogard to justify leaving the latter’s versatility in AAA. Is an extra .080 in OPS vs LHP worth the trade-off? Westbrook does not move too well for a 29 year old who should theoretically be in the athletic prime of his life. Sogard offers more from where I’m standing. Edit: not to mention better MIF defense which is most important.
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 12, 2024 13:40:39 GMT -5
Assuming Westbrook gets the start at 2nd tonight with Romy at 1B? Can someone please explain to me the rationale behind Westbrook over Sogard at this point? Is he better than I realize? These are high leverage games and he has holes in his game in a way Sogie doesn’t. Westbrook has been at least as good a hitter as Sogard in the minors (especially against LHP; he's .311/.394/.492 this year against them compared to .253/.351/.458 for Sogard) and he hurts less to DFA if that becomes necessary because he's already 29. I don't hate it tbh, although I would like to see Sogard get a shot before too long.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Jul 12, 2024 13:47:02 GMT -5
Hindsight is obviously 20/20 but it's a real bummer the Sox didn't outbid the Royals for Lugo when looking at his stats right now. They'd probably be 2-3 wins better with him in the rotation right now. Counterpoint: Lugo is mid. He's rocking a .264 BABIP, 85% LOB, and 8% HR/FB so far this year, which are all absurdly lucky and unsustainable. 3.84 xERA is solid, but he wouldn't be clearly beating out anyone in our rotation besides Bello, who is obviously going nowhere. And it's hard to hold it against Giolito that he got injured; he could easily have been a better signing if he stayed healthy. Lugo's fastball is down 1.2 mph this year and magically jumped 100 RPM to by far the highest level of his career, well above even when he was relieving so thats, uh... interesting? He'll also likely be running into workload concerns soon (146 IP last year was by far his max after being a reliever for much of his career, and he's already up to 122 IP), is 34 years old, and has two years left on his deal... I'm good.
I'm kickiing dirt about Imanaga for sure though. I was so in on him during the offseason, then I assumed I was missing something because of how low the bids ended up being, but turns out he's a baller after all.
I wonder how willing the Cubs might be to let go of Imanaga prior to the deadline. He is effectively signed thru ‘25 with mutual options unlikely to be exercised. Cubs are unlikely to contend in that window. Why not sell high and maximize the roi now? Breslow and co. were reportedly runner up to Chicago in the offseason Imanaga sweepstakes, and with him pitching well, would presumably still be fans of his. He fits the need. Breslow also has ties to the Cubs FO.
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Post by puzzler on Jul 12, 2024 13:49:56 GMT -5
What specific holes are you referring to? Lack of athleticism and versatility and no standout offensive skill (from my view) above Sogard to justify leaving the latter’s versatility in AAA. Is an extra .080 in OPS vs LHP worth the trade-off? Westbrook does not move too well for a 29 year old who should theoretically be in the athletic prime of his life. Sogard offers more from where I’m standing. Edit: not to mention better MIF defense which is most important. Well, he is the barrel man, so he beats your arguments. But I would guess it's a matter of timing - there's going to be a zillion minor leaguers let go soon - the trade deadline is coming up and Sogard isn't on the 40 man. So would you rather release Westbrook from AAA after the all star break, or DFA him when you make a trade? Do they want to add Sogard to the 40 man this year and use up one of his options if they make a trade? Do they want to have to DFA someone else because Sogard is now on the 40 man before the trade deadline has past? For what Sogard might add in a game or two, it doesn't really make a whole lot of sense to me.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 12, 2024 13:50:56 GMT -5
Counterpoint: Lugo is mid. He's rocking a .264 BABIP, 85% LOB, and 8% HR/FB so far this year, which are all absurdly lucky and unsustainable. 3.84 xERA is solid, but he wouldn't be clearly beating out anyone in our rotation besides Bello, who is obviously going nowhere. And it's hard to hold it against Giolito that he got injured; he could easily have been a better signing if he stayed healthy. Lugo's fastball is down 1.2 mph this year and magically jumped 100 RPM to by far the highest level of his career, well above even when he was relieving so thats, uh... interesting? He'll also likely be running into workload concerns soon (146 IP last year was by far his max after being a reliever for much of his career, and he's already up to 122 IP), is 34 years old, and has two years left on his deal... I'm good.
I'm kickiing dirt about Imanaga for sure though. I was so in on him during the offseason, then I assumed I was missing something because of how low the bids ended up being, but turns out he's a baller after all.
I wonder how willing the Cubs might be to let go of Imanaga prior to the deadline. He is effectively signed thru ‘25 with mutual options unlikely to be exercised. Cubs are unlikely to contend in that window. Why not sell high and maximize the roi now? Breslow and co. were reportedly runner up to Chicago in the offseason Imanaga sweepstakes, and with him pitching well, would presumably still be fans of his. He fits the need. Breslow also has ties to the Cubs FO. not sure if it’s true or not but I’ve heard teams are more reticent to trade Japanese players early in their contract because it might make it more difficult for them to sign future Japanese players. Sort of makes sense that guys wouldn’t like the idea of signing up for a life in Chicago and being moved somewhere against your will after only a few months. Though if it was that important maybe they’d negotiate no trade clauses so I dunno.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 12, 2024 13:52:30 GMT -5
Trade proposals to the trade subforum, please
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2024 13:52:43 GMT -5
Counterpoint: Lugo is mid. He's rocking a .264 BABIP, 85% LOB, and 8% HR/FB so far this year, which are all absurdly lucky and unsustainable. 3.84 xERA is solid, but he wouldn't be clearly beating out anyone in our rotation besides Bello, who is obviously going nowhere. And it's hard to hold it against Giolito that he got injured; he could easily have been a better signing if he stayed healthy. Lugo's fastball is down 1.2 mph this year and magically jumped 100 RPM to by far the highest level of his career, well above even when he was relieving so thats, uh... interesting? He'll also likely be running into workload concerns soon (146 IP last year was by far his max after being a reliever for much of his career, and he's already up to 122 IP), is 34 years old, and has two years left on his deal... I'm good.
I'm kickiing dirt about Imanaga for sure though. I was so in on him during the offseason, then I assumed I was missing something because of how low the bids ended up being, but turns out he's a baller after all.
I wonder how willing the Cubs might be to let go of Imanaga prior to the deadline. He is effectively signed thru ‘25 with mutual options unlikely to be exercised.
Cubs are unlikely to contend in that window. Why not sell high and maximize the roi now? Breslow and co. were reportedly runner up to Chicago in the offseason Imanaga sweepstakes, and with him pitching well, would presumably still be fans of his. He fits the need. Breslow also has ties to the Cubs FO. The Cubs are in a weak division, are invested in a lot of major league talent, and have a very strong farm system. Why would they not be trying to contend? They're only 3 games out of a wild card spot right now, for that matter. And in any case I'd expect the Cubs to exercise the option that keeps him for $80 million through 2028, assuming he stays healthy.
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