nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 14, 2024 11:34:25 GMT -5
Honeycutt is how you’re hoping Griffin’s development doesn’t go offensively so I disagree. I mean sure if you’re basing it off of hopes then I guess but in terms of an actual value proposition I don’t know if that argument makes a ton of sense (I’m actually not even sure it makes sense from the standpoint you describe). But that’s fine, people can have different preferences! Nobody has struck out at the rate he has in college and become a good MLB hitter. It starts and ends there for me despite him being a tool shed everywhere else. Like you said, just my preference
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 14, 2024 11:35:41 GMT -5
Wouldn't Honeycutt be the antithesis of a 1st round floor approach? Thought that was your preferred model. Not disagreeing, just found it incongruent. That’s a fair point but I think I wrote elsewhere that I think he’s the perfect balance of ceiling and floor because if he improved the hit tool he’s obviously a superstar but he also provides enough value in every other facet of the game that he’s still a plus player with a 40 grade MLB hit tool. There’s always a chance he just straight up can’t hit when faced with high level pro pitching, but I do think there’s still a pretty decent floor there, especially relative to the level of upside he has.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 14, 2024 11:35:52 GMT -5
My barely informed top 5 wishlist (of guys who I think might be there at our pick): 1. Braden Montgomery 2. Konnor Griffin 3. Cam Smith 4. Brody Brecht 5. Nick Kurtz HM: Yesavage, Tibbs, King, Rainer Even better would be a bigger surprise drop from someone like Hagen Smith Praying that Smith can drop to our slot. That would be huge.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 14, 2024 11:38:24 GMT -5
I mean sure if you’re basing it off of hopes then I guess but in terms of an actual value proposition I don’t know if that argument makes a ton of sense (I’m actually not even sure it makes sense from the standpoint you describe). But that’s fine, people can have different preferences! Nobody has struck out at the rate he has in college and become a good MLB hitter. It starts and ends there for me despite him being a tool shed everywhere else. Like you said, just my preference That’s not what I’m discussing, though. I’m talking about him specifically in relation to griffin. Yes the hit tool is a real concern but you’re treating Griffin’s concerns there as an abstract because he hasn’t been tested like Honeycutt has. Just because Honeycutt’s hit tool issues have shown up against advanced pitching doesn’t inherently make his hit tool worse than Griffin’s.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Jul 14, 2024 11:43:59 GMT -5
Semi-realistic preference: Yesavage @ 12; Sirota @ 50
Just for fun preference: Jurrangelo Cijntje @ 12; Over-slot arm @ 50
Willing to accept but would give me anxiety: Any college bat deemed BPA that would exacerbate bat:arm imbalance in system
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 14, 2024 11:44:09 GMT -5
Nobody has struck out at the rate he has in college and become a good MLB hitter. It starts and ends there for me despite him being a tool shed everywhere else. Like you said, just my preference That’s not what I’m discussing, though. I’m talking about him specifically in relation to griffin. Yes the hit tool is a real concern but you’re treating Griffin’s concerns there as an abstract because he hasn’t been tested like Honeycutt has. Just because Honeycutt’s hit tool issues have shown up against advanced pitching doesn’t inherently make his hit tool worse than Griffin’s. Assuming they have equal hit tools (which we don’t even know is true), I’ll take the high schooler over the older player whose habits/traits are more ingrained. I generally am not a fan of college players with a huge red offensive flag in fear that the tool in question is past the point of no return.
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Post by jl1947 on Jul 14, 2024 11:52:54 GMT -5
Moore has one of the best offensive profiles in the draft, while being average defensively at second and perhaps LF, with limited probability of CF. Honeycutt has all the tools except for the hit tool which is a complete projection at this point, depending on whether you believe you can help him develop in the area. He is more a bust probability than he is a star probability.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 14, 2024 12:36:41 GMT -5
Is there a study out there of whether teams actually do better than publicly available draft ratings in the long run? Like if a team just said screw it, we'll save a few million on scouting and just draft based on the BA list would they do any worse? Surely someone has tested this hypothesis. I don't know about that, but thought I should alert you that there is someone named Jurrangelo Cijntje that is a potential selection for us and he is a switch pitcher so I think I know what you will be rooting for tonight. Oh 100%.
At the other end of the spectrum, I can't get to the end of the phrase "second baseman Christian Moore" without falling asleep.
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Post by outofleftfield on Jul 14, 2024 12:45:38 GMT -5
Semi-realistic preference: Yesavage @ 12; Sirota @ 50 Just for fun preference: Jurrangelo Cijntje @ 12; Over-slot arm @ 50 Willing to accept but would give me anxiety: Any college bat deemed BPA that would exacerbate bat:arm imbalance in system I like Sirota a lot at 50 if he's there. Hoping for one of him, Cunningham, Prager, Holman, and Forcucci at that pick.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 14, 2024 12:50:08 GMT -5
Forgive my ignorance of switch pitchers but wouldn’t it seem logical that there’s a good chance he only develops into an mlb caliber arm from one side of the mound? If at all?
Conversely wouldn’t the upside be he’s an MLB arm from both sides?
So if he blows an elbow out does he avoid an IL stint? Or perhaps he keeps his arm fresh by going back and forth between starts? I suppose there’s also greater than 0% chance he has starter pontential from one side but is a reliever from the other?
Imagine pitching a shut out one day and coming into the game from the other side to get the save the following day. A LHP to start and RHP reliever for the rest of the week?
…so many questions.
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Post by nonothing on Jul 14, 2024 13:00:25 GMT -5
My barely informed top 5 wishlist (of guys who I think might be there at our pick): 1. Braden Montgomery 2. Konnor Griffin 3. Cam Smith 4. Brody Brecht 5. Nick Kurtz HM: Yesavage, Tibbs, King, Rainer Even better would be a bigger surprise drop from someone like Hagen Smith Praying that Smith can drop to our slot. That would be huge. Why are you praying we can get a guy at 12 who nobody has ranked in the top 12?
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 14, 2024 13:01:40 GMT -5
Currently dreaming of JC (gonna need to draft him for me to memorize his name) offering heroic switch pitching in a playoff series
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 14, 2024 13:03:04 GMT -5
The concept of a pitcher good enough to be in MLB with both arms is super fun I would not mind rooting for that
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Post by nonothing on Jul 14, 2024 13:08:43 GMT -5
Moore has one of the best offensive profiles in the draft, while being average defensively at second and perhaps LF, with limited probability of CF. Honeycutt has all the tools except for the hit tool which is a complete projection at this point, depending on whether you believe you can help him develop in the area. He is more a bust probability than he is a star probability. Both are higher than acceptable probability busts at our slot. If they had better defensive characteristics, then the offensive ceiling risk might be palatable -- but neither fits 12 pick.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 14, 2024 13:11:24 GMT -5
Praying that Smith can drop to our slot. That would be huge. Why are you praying we can get a guy at 12 who nobody has ranked in the top 12? I think he was talking about Hagen Smith who is universally ranked in the top 12, but some outlets also have Cam Smith in the top 12
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Post by nonothing on Jul 14, 2024 13:11:30 GMT -5
That’s not what I’m discussing, though. I’m talking about him specifically in relation to griffin. Yes the hit tool is a real concern but you’re treating Griffin’s concerns there as an abstract because he hasn’t been tested like Honeycutt has. Just because Honeycutt’s hit tool issues have shown up against advanced pitching doesn’t inherently make his hit tool worse than Griffin’s. Assuming they have equal hit tools (which we don’t even know is true), I’ll take the high schooler over the older player whose habits/traits are more ingrained. I generally am not a fan of college players with a huge red offensive flag in fear that the tool in question is past the point of no return. And Griffin is said to be an excellent defensive SS and gold glove caliber in CF. That is incredibly different from Honeycutt.
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Post by nonothing on Jul 14, 2024 13:13:46 GMT -5
Why are you praying we can get a guy at 12 who nobody has ranked in the top 12? I think he was talking about Hagen Smith who is universally ranked in the top 12, but some outlets also have Cam Smith in the top 12 Ah... Hagen Smith. I get that! Have not seen Cam Smith talent ranked in top 12. But not a big question whether 10-20 so much, esp as he was talking about Hagen Smith.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 14, 2024 13:14:41 GMT -5
I think he was talking about Hagen Smith who is universally ranked in the top 12, but some outlets also have Cam Smith in the top 12 Ah... Hagen Smith. I get that! Have not seen Cam Smith talent ranked in top 12. But not a big question whether 10-20 so much, esp as he was talking about Hagen Smith. Fangraphs has Cam Smith at #6
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 14, 2024 13:15:24 GMT -5
Forgive my ignorance of switch pitchers but wouldn’t it seem logical that there’s a good chance he only develops into an mlb caliber arm from one side of the mound? If at all? Conversely wouldn’t the upside be he’s an MLB arm from both sides? So if he blows an elbow out does he avoid an IL stint? Or perhaps he keeps his arm fresh by going back and forth between starts? I suppose there’s also greater than 0% chance he has starter pontential from one side but is a reliever from the other? Imagine pitching a shut out one day and coming into the game from the other side to get the save the following day. A LHP to start and RHP reliever for the rest of the week? …so many questions. You pose some intriguing scenarios. A couple more: Combat the Opposite side lineup by pitching same-side to everyone; Which ... mitigates pitch count removal as he'd have limited mileage on each arm -- every game a CG opportunity! Which ... mitigates "3rd-time through the order," as he could simply switch hands to give them a different look. The opportunities for innovation are endless. Does he swing a bat too?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 14, 2024 13:50:35 GMT -5
Forgive my ignorance of switch pitchers but wouldn’t it seem logical that there’s a good chance he only develops into an mlb caliber arm from one side of the mound? If at all? Conversely wouldn’t the upside be he’s an MLB arm from both sides? So if he blows an elbow out does he avoid an IL stint? Or perhaps he keeps his arm fresh by going back and forth between starts? I suppose there’s also greater than 0% chance he has starter pontential from one side but is a reliever from the other? Imagine pitching a shut out one day and coming into the game from the other side to get the save the following day. A LHP to start and RHP reliever for the rest of the week? …so many questions. Yes, and many say Cijntje can be an mlb starter as a RHP and more likely a reliever as LHP. Fuin to think he could start of Monday and then come in to face a coupled of LHH on Wednesday. But not very realistic.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 14, 2024 14:42:10 GMT -5
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 14, 2024 14:47:56 GMT -5
Gillen on a deal would be nice IMO. Longenhagen loves him
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 14, 2024 14:54:07 GMT -5
The scouting staff probably thinks Gillen is from Harvard Westlake in CA and not Westlake in Texas, or else I'm not sure why they'd be interested in him at all.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 14, 2024 14:56:40 GMT -5
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 14, 2024 15:07:57 GMT -5
Should we take Boston Bateman at 50?
He’s ranked 57 by pipeline He’s 6’8” has touched high 97 from the left side, good curveball. His name is Boston
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