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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 13, 2024 20:10:20 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 14, 2024 4:48:10 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 14, 2024 4:49:13 GMT -5
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Jul 14, 2024 8:08:43 GMT -5
Thank you vertmontsox1 for all of your work. Your ability to collect, organize and synthesize all of the information in the draft and daily threads is amazing.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Jul 14, 2024 8:13:55 GMT -5
This thread title is a beautiful sight every year
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Post by costpet on Jul 14, 2024 8:21:06 GMT -5
To show you how hard baseball is, in Football, the first round choice is usually a starter on Day 1. In baseball the first round choice, if he's really good, takes at least 3 years to make it to the Show. Like Ted Williams said, the hardest thing to do in sports is to hit a major league fastball.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 14, 2024 8:58:22 GMT -5
My barely informed top 5 wishlist (of guys who I think might be there at our pick):
1. Braden Montgomery 2. Konnor Griffin 3. Cam Smith 4. Brody Brecht 5. Nick Kurtz
HM: Yesavage, Tibbs, King, Rainer
Even better would be a bigger surprise drop from someone like Hagen Smith
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Jul 14, 2024 9:11:33 GMT -5
There isn’t a pick in their projected range that I would hate outside of Honeycutt
Still rooting for a Kurtz, Griffin, or Monty slide
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 14, 2024 9:14:49 GMT -5
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 14, 2024 9:43:48 GMT -5
There isn’t a pick in their projected range that I would hate outside of Honeycutt Still rooting for a Kurtz, Griffin, or Monty slide Being firmly anti-Honeycutt but firmly pro Griffin is very interesting to me. They seem like pretty similar archetypes on the surface level and Griffin is getting the benefit of the doubt for not having yet had the opportunity to have his warts exposed. I’d prefer Griffin if given the chance but I don’t really know if I understand taking completely opposite stances on them. I’m fully ready to be Jon Snow standing alone against the charging army if Honeycutt is the pick. He’s not my top choice but he’s definitely someone I’d prefer to a few of the other college bats in that range.
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Post by markm7 on Jul 14, 2024 9:49:40 GMT -5
Obviously really hoping for 2 pitchers tonight but wouldn’t hate Benge or Waldschmidt at 12
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Post by outofleftfield on Jul 14, 2024 10:01:16 GMT -5
I dunno what to really expect today, because the top of the draft feels so messy and prone to go absolutely bonkers, but my (semi-realistic) wishlist for #12 is one of Griffin, Yesavage, Montgomery, and Rainer, with Cijntje as a possible underslot pick if none of them are available, and Honeycutt as a break glass in case of emergency pick.
Thing with Honeycutt is his lack of a hit tool scares me, but if we can fix it up, he's plus across the board, and that's a superstar level talent. At #12, it's rare to have an opportunity at a guy who was a candidate for preseason #1.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 14, 2024 10:03:09 GMT -5
This is the rank of the Red Sox' best players this season by WAR, with their position and draft round (IFA guys not included):
Duran: OF, 7th Houck: P, 1st Crawford: P, 16th Wong: C, 3rd O'Neill: OF, 3rd Hamilton: MIF, 8th Pivetta: P, 4th Refsnyder: OF, 5th
Moral of the story: the universe is chaotic, without pattern or meaning. They should just do whatever in the first round and it doesn't even matter.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 14, 2024 10:10:56 GMT -5
I watched a video of Griffin playing basketball and he was experienced enough to do some nifty dribbling and he had some good footwork on a spin move, but then he hit the bottom corner of the backboard on a three point attempt, and then missed everything by about four feet on another attempt. I am slightly cooling on him after that,
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Post by incandenza on Jul 14, 2024 10:11:26 GMT -5
Is there a study out there of whether teams actually do better than publicly available draft ratings in the long run? Like if a team just said screw it, we'll save a few million on scouting and just draft based on the BA list would they do any worse? Surely someone has tested this hypothesis.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 14, 2024 10:17:06 GMT -5
Where would Mayer go in this draft? Gotta be 1, right?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 14, 2024 10:21:38 GMT -5
One thing I'll be interested to see is how their bonus pool is spread relative to last year. In 2023 they had three seven-figure bonuses and two that were $500,000+ (I am rounding Campbell's up a little bit). They did have two extra picks last year but their total bonus pool is actually higher this year, so a repeat of that is certainly doable, depending on who the first round pick is. This is obviously way oversimplifying it, but I think three seven-figure bonuses is kind of the benchmark you want to see how "high level" talent added in a draft class. If today's pick signs for around $5 million, and they avoided a Zanatello type extreme overslot bonus, they could even theoretically hit four and still have room for a couple bonuses in the Campbell range.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 14, 2024 10:28:49 GMT -5
Is there a study out there of whether teams actually do better than publicly available draft ratings in the long run? Like if a team just said screw it, we'll save a few million on scouting and just draft based on the BA list would they do any worse? Surely someone has tested this hypothesis. I don't know about that, but thought I should alert you that there is someone named Jurrangelo Cijntje that is a potential selection for us and he is a switch pitcher so I think I know what you will be rooting for tonight.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 14, 2024 10:50:47 GMT -5
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 14, 2024 10:52:57 GMT -5
Pearson is just one of us, hoping for the same outcome.
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Post by nags112 on Jul 14, 2024 11:01:58 GMT -5
There is a ton of day-of noise with Yesavage. Im starting to get to the point where Id be surprised if it isn’t him.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Jul 14, 2024 11:13:14 GMT -5
Is there a study out there of whether teams actually do better than publicly available draft ratings in the long run? Like if a team just said screw it, we'll save a few million on scouting and just draft based on the BA list would they do any worse? Surely someone has tested this hypothesis. I've never seen a comprehensive study, but I once did that comparing the BA consensus to Michael Lewis' reporting of the A's Moneyball draft board. BA consensus would have been better and as I recall the big edge for BA consensus was one Jon Lester. That year ended up being pretty strong at the top for HS players and pitchers in particular with HoFer Zack Greinke and Hall of Very Gooder Jon Lester.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Jul 14, 2024 11:17:38 GMT -5
There isn’t a pick in their projected range that I would hate outside of Honeycutt Still rooting for a Kurtz, Griffin, or Monty slide Being firmly anti-Honeycutt but firmly pro Griffin is very interesting to me. They seem like pretty similar archetypes on the surface level and Griffin is getting the benefit of the doubt for not having yet had the opportunity to have his warts exposed. I’d prefer Griffin if given the chance but I don’t really know if I understand taking completely opposite stances on them. I’m fully ready to be Jon Snow standing alone against the charging army if Honeycutt is the pick. He’s not my top choice but he’s definitely someone I’d prefer to a few of the other college bats in that range. Honeycutt is how you’re hoping Griffin’s development doesn’t go offensively so I disagree.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 14, 2024 11:23:31 GMT -5
Being firmly anti-Honeycutt but firmly pro Griffin is very interesting to me. They seem like pretty similar archetypes on the surface level and Griffin is getting the benefit of the doubt for not having yet had the opportunity to have his warts exposed. I’d prefer Griffin if given the chance but I don’t really know if I understand taking completely opposite stances on them. I’m fully ready to be Jon Snow standing alone against the charging army if Honeycutt is the pick. He’s not my top choice but he’s definitely someone I’d prefer to a few of the other college bats in that range. Honeycutt is how you’re hoping Griffin’s development doesn’t go offensively so I disagree. I mean sure if you’re basing it off of hopes then I guess but in terms of an actual value proposition I don’t know if that argument makes a ton of sense (I’m actually not even sure it makes sense from the standpoint you describe). But that’s fine, people can have different preferences!
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Post by bentossaurus on Jul 14, 2024 11:29:36 GMT -5
Wouldn't Honeycutt be the antithesis of a 1st round floor approach? Thought that was your preferred model.
Not disagreeing, just found it incongruent.
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