SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2024 Draft Signing Period
|
|
Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 16, 2024 16:15:45 GMT -5
Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut-check predictions" for the 2024 signing season. I don't have any inside info behind this yet, these predictions are just based on gut feel and years of history of making these projections. These initial guesstimates have been fairly solid but in years past, but they're just that - projections with a significant amount of possible variability. Feedback is welcome and appreciated. I will update from time to time as more info comes in and as opinions evolve.
Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)
Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus
1. Braden Montgomery $6,000,000
2. Payton Tolle $1,300,000
3. Brandon Neely $700,000
4. Zach Ehrhard $400,000
5. Brandon Clarke $457,900
6. Blake Aita $150,000
7. Will Turner $350,000
8. Conrad Cason $1,000,000
9. Hudson White $150,000
10. Devin Futrell $150,000
After 10th round, above $150K
12. Brady Tygart $500,000 ($350k counts against the cap)
After 10th round, possible $150K or less signs (count $0 towards cap)
11. Steven Brooks
13. Shea Sprague
14. Alex Bouchard
15. Joey Gartrell
16. Griffin Kilander
17. Yan Cruz
19. D'Angelo Ortiz
Total spent towards cap using these projections: $11,007,900
Red Sox Cap: $10,521,600
Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $11,047,680
Super wicked early projected not to sign
18. Cole Tolbert
20. Ben Hansen
|
|
|
|
Post by shlynch on Jul 16, 2024 16:47:33 GMT -5
Hansen may be sophomore eligible but was HS class of 2020 because he did a LDS mission. I don't think he has the leverage of a typical sophomore, so signing for <$150k seems pretty plausible.
(Also, typo in Ehrhard's first name)
|
|
|
|
Post by Addam603 on Jul 16, 2024 20:26:20 GMT -5
The Domestic Reserve List is currently at 157/165. That number will fluctuate with various moves, but if the Sox sign 18 players like Mike is predicting, they’ll need to clear 10 spots on the rosters. Montgomery, Tygart, Bouchard, and Gartrell all have injuries that should put them on an injured list and ensure they don’t count. So that brings the cut number down to 6. So when the Sox sign their draft picks, half a dozen guys are going to lose their jobs. That number can go down by moving more players to the long term injured lists, but I don’t know who would qualify at this point. How are teams going to work around this DRL with signings? Players don’t play right after they sign. So what happens in the meantime? Or am I completely misunderstanding how the Domestic Reserve List works in terms of the draft?
|
|
|
|
Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 16, 2024 20:31:20 GMT -5
Players start to count against the reserve list on the earlier of (1) their first game; or (2) 15 days after signing
|
|
|
|
Post by seamus on Jul 16, 2024 20:34:02 GMT -5
This might be my favorite thread of the year and favorite period of the prospect-watching season. Lots of new guys to dream on, fun wonky business stuff and big picture strategy conversations. What more can someone hanging out on a baseball prospects site ask for?  I'm not sure Montgomery is going to go notably overslot unless they really don't need the money elsewhere and want to send a message. Would he really take the risk of going back to school and maybe not bouncing back from the injury quite as quickly as hoped? Even if he had another good season, he'd have less leverage next year and the 2025 draft is supposed to be a fair bit stronger. Would he be a shoo-in for the top 10 next year and at least slot next year? I'm not sure. Last year, Teel signed pretty far underslot after a slide, and while I don't expect Montgomery to be underslot (and it's not clear that they NEED to save big on him based on the rest of their picks), I wouldn't be surprised if he's pretty close to about $5.5. |
|
|
|
Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 16, 2024 20:43:41 GMT -5
The Domestic Reserve List is currently at 157/165. That number will fluctuate with various moves, but if the Sox sign 18 players like Mike is predicting, they’ll need to clear 10 spots on the rosters. Montgomery, Tygart, Bouchard, and Gartrell all have injuries that should put them on an injured list and ensure they don’t count. So that brings the cut number down to 6. So when the Sox sign their draft picks, half a dozen guys are going to lose their jobs. That number can go down by moving more players to the long term injured lists, but I don’t know who would qualify at this point. How are teams going to work around this DRL with signings? Players don’t play right after they sign. So what happens in the meantime? Or am I completely misunderstanding how the Domestic Reserve List works in terms of the draft? A lot of fringy org pitchers are going to get released over the next few days to make room for guys who may become something or turn into fringy org pitchers in 2 years. |
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 17, 2024 5:46:26 GMT -5
The Domestic Reserve List is currently at 157/165. That number will fluctuate with various moves, but if the Sox sign 18 players like Mike is predicting, they’ll need to clear 10 spots on the rosters. Montgomery, Tygart, Bouchard, and Gartrell all have injuries that should put them on an injured list and ensure they don’t count. So that brings the cut number down to 6. So when the Sox sign their draft picks, half a dozen guys are going to lose their jobs. That number can go down by moving more players to the long term injured lists, but I don’t know who would qualify at this point. How are teams going to work around this DRL with signings? Players don’t play right after they sign. So what happens in the meantime? Or am I completely misunderstanding how the Domestic Reserve List works in terms of the draft? A lot of fringy org pitchers are going to get released over the next few days to make room for guys who may become something or turn into fringy org pitchers in 2 years. A boat is a boat, but the box could be anything! It could even be a boat! |
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 17, 2024 9:34:01 GMT -5
Per Kendall Rodgers, Red Sox signed UDFA Calvin Bickerstaff. He's a RHP from Kent State.
|
|
badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 470
Member is Online
|
Post by badfishnbc on Jul 17, 2024 9:34:29 GMT -5
A lot of fringy org pitchers are going to get released over the next few days to make room for guys who may become something or turn into fringy org pitchers in 2 years. A boat is a boat, but the box could be anything! It could even be a boat! I love this phrase so much - I was delighted when it was used in regards to trading a 2025 Pats first-rounder for Aiyuk. Regarding our picks, I have to trust that the scouting and player development departments have sufficiently evaluated those on our roster and come to conclusions regarding the extent to which they can help them develop in the proverbial "lab" and have determined that the likelihood of success from this new crop is greater than what's currently in the system. Clay is clay, but as it dries out, you're sometimes better off starting with a new ball. |
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 17, 2024 9:34:32 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by levi on Jul 17, 2024 9:42:20 GMT -5
Per Kendall Rodgers, Red Sox signed UDFA Calvin Bickerstaff. He's a RHP from Kent State. 9.0 K/9, 0.8 BB/9 in 56.2 IP |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 17, 2024 9:42:47 GMT -5
Bickerstaff himself retweeted that as well.
|
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Jul 17, 2024 9:58:38 GMT -5
Any relation to former CLE Cavaliers coach Bernie Bickerstaff?
|
|
|
|
Post by 1toolplayer on Jul 17, 2024 10:21:31 GMT -5
Per Kendall Rodgers, Red Sox signed UDFA Calvin Bickerstaff. He's a RHP from Kent State. 9.0 K/9, 0.8 BB/9 in 56.2 IP Bickerstaff fits the mold- 6'5 and uber control. D1 baseball has a "control artists" list and he was 3rd in the country in walk rate last year. The first on the list is former D3 P who xferred to Richmond, Kyle Roche. He's 6'8, and would be surprised if he didn't get a call or two himself to sign. 11th rounder Steve Brooks btw is 15th |
|
0ap0
Veteran
Posts: 482
Member is Online
|
Post by 0ap0 on Jul 17, 2024 10:29:30 GMT -5
Bickerstaff? I hardly even know 'er!
ETA: Also, Zach Erhard.
|
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,009
Member is Online
|
Post by mobaz on Jul 17, 2024 10:39:30 GMT -5
Predictions on first (draftee) signing report? I'm going with Tolle.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 17, 2024 11:01:13 GMT -5
Predictions on first (draftee) signing report? I'm going with Tolle. You mean first player to report after signing? The deadline is in just 2 weeks, and after everyone signs, they have them all report to Fort Myers for what's essentially an orientation. So they basically all show up down there at once. It's unclear if any will appear in games this year, particularly given that the FCL will be over. The health of guys like Montgomery will be a big factor too. Pearson wouldn't commit one way or the other to whether he'd play in games when I asked the other day. |
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Jul 17, 2024 13:04:21 GMT -5
Any relation to former CLE Cavaliers coach Bernie Bickerstaff? No is the answer |
|
|
|
Post by dipstixx on Jul 17, 2024 13:36:23 GMT -5
Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut-check predictions" for the 2024 signing season. I don't have any inside info behind this yet, these predictions are just based on gut feel and years of history of making these projections. These initial guesstimates have been fairly solid but in years past, but they're just that - projections with a significant amount of possible variability. Feedback is welcome and appreciated. I will update from time to time as more info comes in and as opinions evolve. Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus1. Braden Montgomery $6,000,000 2. Payton Tolle $1,300,000 3. Brandon Neely $700,000 4. Zaxch Ehrhard $400,000 5. Brandon Clarke $457,900 6. Blake Aita $150,000 7. Will Turner $350,000 8. Conrad Cason $1,000,000 9. Hudson White $150,000 10. Devin Futrell $150,000 After 10th round, above $150K 12. Brady Tygart $500,000 ($350k counts against the cap) After 10th round, possible $150K or less signs (count $0 towards cap)11. Steven Brooks 13. Shea Sprague 14. Alex Bouchard 15. Joey Gartrell 16. Griffin Kilander 17. Yan Cruz 19. D'Angelo Ortiz Total spent towards cap using these projections: $11,007,900 Red Sox Cap: $10,521,600 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $11,047,680 Super wicked early projected not to sign18. Cole Tolbert 20. Ben Hansen |
|
|
|
Post by dipstixx on Jul 17, 2024 13:38:23 GMT -5
The Red Sox need to do all they can to sign Ben Hansen. If you get three draft pick a year to make the show it is a great draft.
|
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Jul 17, 2024 15:40:29 GMT -5
After everyone signs, they have them all report to Fort Myers for what's essentially an orientation. So they basically all show up down there at once. It's unclear if any will appear in games this year, particularly given that the FCL will be over. The health of guys like Montgomery will be a big factor too. Pearson wouldn't commit one way or the other to whether he'd play in games when I asked the other day. That's so different compared to the past, right? Why is the FCL ending so early? Didn't they move up signing day specifically so guys could play after signing? Or did they move draft day backwards just to shorten the period? Sorry to be so ignorant on stuff that I should know, but those are all actual questions I'm wondering about. THanks.
|
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Jul 17, 2024 15:46:25 GMT -5
It's unclear if any will appear in games this year, particularly given that the FCL will be over. The health of guys like Montgomery will be a big factor too. Pearson wouldn't commit one way or the other to whether he'd play in games when I asked the other day. That's so different compared to the past, right? Why is the FCL ending so early? Didn't they move up signing day specifically so guys could play after signing? Or did they move draft day backwards just to shorten the period? Sorry to be so ignorant on stuff that I should know, but those are all actual questions I'm wondering about. THanks.
To partially answer my own question, only a few two "top" picks got into more than a couple of games last year. Zantello played a game in Salem after 12 in FCL and Campbell played in 14 games in Greenville after 8 in the FCL. But note that both of these guys have helium in part because of how that experience prepared them to excel this year. So odd to me that they would end the FCL before draft picks sign! Add: A Anderson played 12 games across two levels. Teel played in 15 in Greenville after 3 in the FCL. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 17, 2024 15:49:00 GMT -5
That's so different compared to the past, right? Why is the FCL ending so early? Didn't they move up signing day specifically so guys could play after signing? Or did they move draft day backwards just to shorten the period? Sorry to be so ignorant on stuff that I should know, but those are all actual questions I'm wondering about. THanks.
To partially answer my own question, only two "top" picks got into more than a couple of games last year. Zantello played a game in Salem after 12 in FCL and Campbell played in 14 games in Greenville after 8 in the FCL. But note that both of these guys have helium in part because of how that experience prepared them to excel this year. So odd to me that they would end the FCL before draft picks sign! It's basically a result of the 165-player reserve list. Draftees count toward it now 15 days after they sign (or when they play in a game) and teams were worried about having enough innings given that drafted pitchers throw very few innings after they sign now. So they basically moved the schedule up and made it a graduate league for DSL alums, plus some rehabbers, essentially. |
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 17, 2024 15:53:23 GMT -5
And that doesn't stop guys from eventually getting action in A-ball. For example, Zach Ehrhard could report to Ft. Myers, play in a few unofficial "tricky league" games and then get promoted to Salem for the rest of the season. Just reduces the pressure to trot out a patchwork FCL team given the reserve list limitations.
|
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Jul 17, 2024 15:53:38 GMT -5
To partially answer my own question, only two "top" picks got into more than a couple of games last year. Zantello played a game in Salem after 12 in FCL and Campbell played in 14 games in Greenville after 8 in the FCL. But note that both of these guys have helium in part because of how that experience prepared them to excel this year. So odd to me that they would end the FCL before draft picks sign! It's basically a result of the 165-player reserve list. Draftees count toward it now 15 days after they sign (or when they play in a game) and teams were worried about having enough innings given that drafted pitchers throw very few innings after they sign now. So they basically moved the schedule up and made it a graduate league for DSL alums, plus some rehabbers, essentially. Thank you. I totally missed this (months ago and ongoing). I thought all the hand-wringing was about SS-A contraction, but I better understand now... Though I think they ought to just do two weeks of ball after the signing deadline -- maybe the playoffs mess it up? Why even have playoffs at that level! And also the Sox ought to get some of their hitters signed earlier to play a bit more and see if they're ready for Greenville or Salem. Anyway, when I take over the world, I'll get right on that (after fixing the stop-light timing near my house :-) ADD: right, good point Vermont. ADD 2: I guess that also fits with fewer HS draftees, which also jives with NIL in NCAA. Maybe also explains what seems to me (might be way off) a proliferation of more wood bat summer collegiate leagues. |
|
|
