7/24 Gameday Thread: Sea Dogs for Brunch; WooSox Play Two

Mayer out of the lineup for the second day in a row.

In 2021, the Domestic Reserve List limit wasn't a concern, leading to organizational-type players being in the system longer. A 23-year old in Salem who didn't project but was a good teammate and positive contributor at the level would stick around. Those guys are roster casualties now.

The FCL was even more extreme because draft picks would be there. Now it is mostly DSL graduate school.

2 more points on that.

In 2021, a lot of the lower minors was populated by the large amount of UDFAs signed in 2020 when the draft was limited to 5 rounds. Because of the shortened draft, there were fewer high schoolers than normal drafted and those two factors necessarily would have inflated, in particular, the average age of A-ball. Looking at the season-end rosters (https://soxprospects.com/2021SE.htm), I think only one member of that bullpen was younger than 23, and he was 22. I would surmise that a LOT of A-ball rosters were filled out that way whereas now, you probably have a lot more guys drafted as college juniors. May not sound like much of a difference, but 1/3 of every roster being one year younger could easily account for most of that 0.6-year difference, and certainly could account for all of it that's not explained by random variation. I specifically recall looking at some of the names on that roster in 2021 and thinking that they were holding spots that would normally go to younger guys if there had been a normal draft.

Further, I think that teams, following going back to normal-sized (albeit shortened from 40 to 20) drafts have learned to promote more aggressively in the absence of Short-Season A. In 2021, following a year without minor league baseball, teams were going much more conservative as guys ramped back up.

Wikelman with 3 perfect including 4k

Since he got stuck with a 50 pitch limit on June 15 - 15.2IP 8H 3R 7BB 22K

Complete and total speculation on my part - does this have anything to do with getting Campbell reps at SS?  2nd day in a row he's playing there.

Bolivar was 1/3 with his 3rd HR of the season. He also had a K/bb.

He's at .280/.375/.439 for the year. 17bb/20k in 128 PA.

Assuming he starts next year in the FCL, he'll be the first Sox player to play his age 17 season in the FCL.
The last time they had 2 17 year olds in Rookie league was 2018. Antoni Flores and Justin Qiang in the GCL.

Average age of positional players at A ball/Average age of pitchers at A ball
2018 21.4 21.9
2019 21.5 21.8
2021 21.3 22.6
2022 20.4 21.9
2023 19.8 21.6
2024 20.7 21.7

It looks like the big difference was pitching, which has remained mostly static over the last 6 years outside of 2021.  Average age of hitter has been trending down. Note it's higher this year than the last 2 but I'd guess it's going to go down a bit by years end.  Probably not as low as 19.8, though.  

Campbell, Perales and Arias breaking out big in the same year is unusual. I wonder if other clubs are experiencing the same phenomena. Our big 3 is heading towards big 6 or 7 and we also have several lesser breakouts like Lugo, password, etc.

Salem has 39 games left.  I'd guess he starts next year in Salem and finishes it in Greenville but there's a non zero chance he's in Portland. 

I think if he rips through A Ball this last month plus he starts in Greenville

I do think if he starts next year in Greenville, he's a top 100 prospect. For him to start next year in Greenville means he absolutely excelled in Salem. He'd solidify himself at 4 or 5 in the Sox system, next to Campbell and overtaking Bleis, Perales, and Cespedes.

Any scenerio where he's in Greenville involves a very rosey outcome for the rest of the year.