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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 24, 2024 6:15:15 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 24, 2024 9:31:08 GMT -5
Mayer out of the lineup for the second day in a row.
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Post by rickasadoorian on Jul 24, 2024 9:33:37 GMT -5
In 2021, 18 year old Blaze Jordan was 3.3 years younger than the average A ball player. In 2024, 18 year old Franklin Arias is 2.7 years younger than the average A ball player.
Franklin Arias is a month older than Jordan was.
edit: It's more about the average age and quality of play than Jordan or Arias.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 24, 2024 9:57:18 GMT -5
In 2021, 18 year old Blaze Jordan was 3.3 years younger than the average A ball player. In 2024, 18 year old Franklin Arias is 2.7 years younger than the average A ball player. Franklin Arias is a month older than Jordan was. edit: It's more about the average age and quality of play than Jordan or Arias. In 2021, the Domestic Reserve List limit wasn't a concern, leading to organizational-type players being in the system longer. A 23-year old in Salem who didn't project but was a good teammate and positive contributor at the level would stick around. Those guys are roster casualties now. The FCL was even more extreme because draft picks would be there. Now it is mostly DSL graduate school.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 24, 2024 10:20:58 GMT -5
Killing the second short season leagues was also a factor. Starting year 1 in DSL, year 2 in GCL, year 3 in Low-A used to be pretty tough. Guys like Freili Encarnacion would be Lowell Spinners to start year 3. Now if you're not getting to Low-A in year 3 it's time to start thinking about your next line of work.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 24, 2024 10:34:41 GMT -5
2 more points on that.
In 2021, a lot of the lower minors was populated by the large amount of UDFAs signed in 2020 when the draft was limited to 5 rounds. Because of the shortened draft, there were fewer high schoolers than normal drafted and those two factors necessarily would have inflated, in particular, the average age of A-ball. Looking at the season-end rosters (https://soxprospects.com/2021SE.htm), I think only one member of that bullpen was younger than 23, and he was 22. I would surmise that a LOT of A-ball rosters were filled out that way whereas now, you probably have a lot more guys drafted as college juniors. May not sound like much of a difference, but 1/3 of every roster being one year younger could easily account for most of that 0.6-year difference, and certainly could account for all of it that's not explained by random variation. I specifically recall looking at some of the names on that roster in 2021 and thinking that they were holding spots that would normally go to younger guys if there had been a normal draft.
Further, I think that teams, following going back to normal-sized (albeit shortened from 40 to 20) drafts have learned to promote more aggressively in the absence of Short-Season A. In 2021, following a year without minor league baseball, teams were going much more conservative as guys ramped back up.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 24, 2024 10:40:09 GMT -5
Killing the second short season leagues was also a factor. Starting year 1 in DSL, year 2 in GCL, year 3 in Low-A used to be pretty tough. Guys like Freili Encarnacion would be Lowell Spinners to start year 3. Now if you're not getting to Low-A in year 3 it's time to start thinking about your next line of work. I don't know that this is quite true. While that development path for years 1-3 existed and wasn't a death knell for guys, I think the most talented IFAs did skip the GCL - that was always a signal regarding which guys they were highest on coming out of that program. Like this year, I think Cespedes, Arias, and arms like Portes and Valera would've gone right to Lowell. EDIT: I note that Bogaerts, for example, jumped right to Low-A from the DSL after being in extended for like 6-8 weeks. THAT was the rare jump.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 24, 2024 10:53:38 GMT -5
Wikelman with 3 perfect including 4k
Since he got stuck with a 50 pitch limit on June 15 - 15.2IP 8H 3R 7BB 22K
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Post by brendan98 on Jul 24, 2024 11:11:26 GMT -5
Wikelman with 3 perfect including 4k Since he got stuck with a 50 pitch limit on June 15 - 15.2IP 8H 3R 7BB 22K Nice jinx, lol. Got himself into a mess, but did a solid job working out of it without too much damage.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jul 24, 2024 12:02:55 GMT -5
Mayer out of the lineup for the second day in a row. Complete and total speculation on my part - does this have anything to do with getting Campbell reps at SS? 2nd day in a row he's playing there.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 24, 2024 12:03:47 GMT -5
Mayer out of the lineup for the second day in a row. Complete and total speculation on my part - does this have anything to do with getting Campbell reps at SS? 2nd day in a row he's playing there. No. Pectoral soreness. Day to day.
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Post by rickasadoorian on Jul 24, 2024 16:47:24 GMT -5
Bolivar was 1/3 with his 3rd HR of the season. He also had a K/bb.
He's at .280/.375/.439 for the year. 17bb/20k in 128 PA.
Assuming he starts next year in the FCL, he'll be the first Sox player to play his age 17 season in the FCL. The last time they had 2 17 year olds in Rookie league was 2018. Antoni Flores and Justin Qiang in the GCL.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 24, 2024 18:49:23 GMT -5
Arias with a 3-run homer
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 24, 2024 18:50:19 GMT -5
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 24, 2024 19:07:41 GMT -5
That's sexy from a defensive shortstop
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Post by rickasadoorian on Jul 24, 2024 19:14:55 GMT -5
2 more points on that. In 2021, a lot of the lower minors was populated by the large amount of UDFAs signed in 2020 when the draft was limited to 5 rounds. Because of the shortened draft, there were fewer high schoolers than normal drafted and those two factors necessarily would have inflated, in particular, the average age of A-ball. Looking at the season-end rosters (https://soxprospects.com/2021SE.htm), I think only one member of that bullpen was younger than 23, and he was 22. I would surmise that a LOT of A-ball rosters were filled out that way whereas now, you probably have a lot more guys drafted as college juniors. May not sound like much of a difference, but 1/3 of every roster being one year younger could easily account for most of that 0.6-year difference, and certainly could account for all of it that's not explained by random variation. I specifically recall looking at some of the names on that roster in 2021 and thinking that they were holding spots that would normally go to younger guys if there had been a normal draft. Further, I think that teams, following going back to normal-sized (albeit shortened from 40 to 20) drafts have learned to promote more aggressively in the absence of Short-Season A. In 2021, following a year without minor league baseball, teams were going much more conservative as guys ramped back up. Average age of positional players at A ball/Average age of pitchers at A ball 2018 21.4 21.9 2019 21.5 21.8 2021 21.3 22.6 2022 20.4 21.9 2023 19.8 21.6 2024 20.7 21.7 It looks like the big difference was pitching, which has remained mostly static over the last 6 years outside of 2021. Average age of hitter has been trending down. Note it's higher this year than the last 2 but I'd guess it's going to go down a bit by years end. Probably not as low as 19.8, though.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 24, 2024 19:15:34 GMT -5
If I were another team's GM looking to trade with the Sox and was told none of the Big 3 were available I'd want Campbell and if I was told no, I'd want this guy. I think Arias has the highest ceiling among the far away prospects. If I were Breslow responding to another team re: Campbell and/or Arias my answer would be no.
I cant wait to see what Mayer becomes but if down the road his defense is just so-so perhaps he moves to 3b and Arias grabs SS. A lot of conjecture about many years down the road, but Arias could very well turn into something special. Its never guaranteed but man is he off to a great start.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 24, 2024 19:37:59 GMT -5
Campbell, Perales and Arias breaking out big in the same year is unusual. I wonder if other clubs are experiencing the same phenomena. Our big 3 is heading towards big 6 or 7 and we also have several lesser breakouts like Lugo, password, etc.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 24, 2024 20:05:17 GMT -5
I don’t mean to get caught in the moment but is Arias 12 months from being in Portland?
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Post by rickasadoorian on Jul 24, 2024 20:13:28 GMT -5
I don’t mean to get caught in the moment but is Arias 12 months from being in Portland? Salem has 39 games left. I'd guess he starts next year in Salem and finishes it in Greenville but there's a non zero chance he's in Portland.
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Post by finaliz3d on Jul 24, 2024 20:14:20 GMT -5
I don’t mean to get caught in the moment but is Arias 12 months from being in Portland? depends on what happens the rest of the year and beginning of next season, i would wager most likely not, he'd need an Anthony 2023 type season which is difficult but not impossible. if he just rakes in A-ball this year than the odds get higher, but it's a wait and see.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 24, 2024 20:16:11 GMT -5
I don’t mean to get caught in the moment but is Arias 12 months from being in Portland? Salem has 39 games left. I'd guess he starts next year in Salem and finishes it in Greenville but there's a non zero chance he's in Portland. I think if he rips through A Ball this last month plus he starts in Greenville
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 24, 2024 20:19:10 GMT -5
I think with the way they’ve treated Salem, they could easily start him in Greenville next year
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Post by rickasadoorian on Jul 24, 2024 20:32:33 GMT -5
I do think if he starts next year in Greenville, he's a top 100 prospect. For him to start next year in Greenville means he absolutely excelled in Salem. He'd solidify himself at 4 or 5 in the Sox system, next to Campbell and overtaking Bleis, Perales, and Cespedes.
Any scenerio where he's in Greenville involves a very rosey outcome for the rest of the year.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 25, 2024 17:16:21 GMT -5
I don’t mean to get caught in the moment but is Arias 12 months from being in Portland? KLAW mentioned him in the comments to his midseason Top 60 column today. Said he was close to breaking into that list.
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