TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,940
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 27, 2024 8:11:06 GMT -5
I disagreed with Tyler O'Neill getting PH for. Before I could bitch about it Abreu was driving in the tying run. Cora just has the knack. I didn't disagree with it as much as I was just surpised by it. The MFY announcers on YES were surprised too. One of them said TON was the next hitter while Abreu was already in his stance waiting for the first pitch. Cora deserves a lot of credit for having the nerve to do it. I'm hoping it can be the start of a big run for Wilyer. I locked onto him from the start of the season as a guy with a lot of OPS potential. He was delivering until his injury.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 27, 2024 8:31:49 GMT -5
MDY were 49-21 and are now 60-45. Their 11-24 has certainly made catching up easier, and is much more representative of the team they are. I picked them to finish fourth in the division before the season started. I still think they can get there.
The teams who were mega-hot to start the year have taken big falls: MFY, Oriels, Dodgers,…. Only the Phillies and Cleveland remain over .600 winning percentage. The injuries have leveled over the standings more so than any year I can remember on the top of the standings. Even that being the case, the number of teams with a realistic chance for the wild card has not really increased that much as only 3 teams are under .400 winning percentage….most of the bad teams are not horrible and can beat you on any given day depending on the pitching match up. The may have a ‘hard’ schedule the rest of the season, but so does everyone else. Barring any serious injury the rest of the way, the Red Sox have a great chance of making the playoffs, so I hope the FO adds another player or two to help get the job done.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 27, 2024 9:04:56 GMT -5
The Yankees also built up a heck of a lead and aren't on the outside looking in. The Yankees do look like an absolute train wreck and I don't think they'll be adding much because they're proving to not being a very good team, but they're 5 up in WC 1. The Red Sox are 1 out of WC3. Not apples to apples. But the Red Sox ended up winning so if they can take this series that would help greatly. The pitching has been very, very bad since the break, but luckily the offense has been good despite no RHH. 5 up? Looks like they’re 3.5 out as of tonight and could be just 1.5 if they win tomorrow and Sunday 👀 You're right. They should sell, lol
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cdj
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Posts: 15,647
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Post by cdj on Jul 27, 2024 9:05:17 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Jul 27, 2024 9:08:20 GMT -5
Stroman has the 4th worst FIP and 6th worst xFIP out of 70 qualified starters. But 35th best by ERA.
He's at a career worst in the main skill stats (K rate, BB rate, GB rate) and a career best in the main luck stats (BABIP, LOB%).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 27, 2024 9:17:14 GMT -5
MDY were 49-21 and are now 60-45. Their 11-24 has certainly made catching up easier, and is much more representative of the team they are. I picked them to finish fourth in the division before the season started. I still think they can get there. The teams who were mega-hot to start the year have taken big falls: MFY, Oriels, Dodgers,…. Only the Phillies and Cleveland remain over .600 winning percentage. The injuries have leveled over the standings more so than any year I can remember on the top of the standings. Even that being the case, the number of teams with a realistic chance for the wild card has not really increased that much as only 3 teams are under .400 winning percentage….most of the bad teams are not horrible and can beat you on any given day depending on the pitching match up. I dont think either represents the Yankees. They're not the .700 team they started out as. They're not the .300 team that theyve been the past month. I think they're an 85 - 88 win team, just like the Red Sox. They managed to stay above .500 last year and made a major addition in Soto and played extremely well for almost half a season, without Gerit Cole. Now, the reality is sinking in that instead of being a 1 monster 8 scrub lineup like last year, they're a 2 monster/7 scrub lineup, which is still a lot of scrubs. It's like they have Manny and Ortiz, but dont have a Damon, a Mueller, a Varitek, or a Nixon. Cole came back and unsurprisingly isnt himself. Holmes is no Rivera. He is quite hittable. The rest of the pen is ok, but not great. When healthy, Kahnle is tough. Gil is good, but nobody else on that staff worries you. They're ok, but not particularly good. Theyll play better and stay afloat because that's what they do. Theyll acquire guys, perhaps Tanner Scott, and theyll stop losing 2/3 of their games, but they're no juggernaut. At this stage, where they are in the standings now, that's about as good in totality as they are, with the Red Sox right near them.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 27, 2024 9:29:29 GMT -5
Wow, I hadn't realized how much the Yankees' pitching has fallen off; they're down to 20th by fWAR. Still 5th by ERA though, lol. That whole pitching staff is Stroman.
Meanwhile, Judge+Soto are on pace for 21 WAR. What a ridiculous team. They're basically the A's except for those two guys, but those two guys are enough to bring them up to a 93 win pace.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,524
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Post by asm18 on Jul 27, 2024 9:57:18 GMT -5
Stroman has the 4th worst FIP and 6th worst xFIP out of 70 qualified starters. But 35th best by ERA. He's at a career worst in the main skill stats (K rate, BB rate, GB rate) and a career best in the main luck stats (BABIP, LOB%). I wonder how guys with a propensity for ground ball double-plays skew expected stats vs ERA. Like Berrios with Toronto is another guy whose peripherals don’t match - but getting guys to turn two saves him from himself a lot
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 27, 2024 10:02:36 GMT -5
Stroman has the 4th worst FIP and 6th worst xFIP out of 70 qualified starters. But 35th best by ERA. He's at a career worst in the main skill stats (K rate, BB rate, GB rate) and a career best in the main luck stats (BABIP, LOB%). I wonder how guys with a propensity for ground ball double-plays skew expected stats vs ERA. Like Berrios with Toronto is another guy whose peripherals don’t match - but getting guys to turn two saves him from himself a lot Shouldnt that be built into the run probabilities informing xERA and FIP? Like part of the reason groundballs have lower run probabilities is they occasionally lead to double plays. If a guy has a particular skill to generate ground balls situationally that might not be captured, but I don’t know whether that exists or not.
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Post by patford on Jul 27, 2024 10:09:01 GMT -5
I wonder if there is an underlying correlation with innings pitched. Starters go deeper and the bullpen is fresher. Starters going deeper wears down the starters and they begin to fall off or have games where they implode meaning bullpen usage skyrockets.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 27, 2024 10:14:40 GMT -5
Stroman has the 4th worst FIP and 6th worst xFIP out of 70 qualified starters. But 35th best by ERA. He's at a career worst in the main skill stats (K rate, BB rate, GB rate) and a career best in the main luck stats (BABIP, LOB%). I wonder how guys with a propensity for ground ball double-plays skew expected stats vs ERA. Like Berrios with Toronto is another guy whose peripherals don’t match - but getting guys to turn two saves him from himself a lot What scottysmalls said. And in any case, Stroman a) did not have an ERA lower than his FIP in his career prior to this year; b) has the lowest GB rate of his career (though it's still 9th highest among quaalifiers).
But! Looking at the leaderboard, it does seem like most of the GB% leaders' ERA are outperforming their FIP and xERA. So that's kinda interesting...
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,524
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Post by asm18 on Jul 27, 2024 10:15:54 GMT -5
I wonder how guys with a propensity for ground ball double-plays skew expected stats vs ERA. Like Berrios with Toronto is another guy whose peripherals don’t match - but getting guys to turn two saves him from himself a lot Shouldnt that be built into the run probabilities informing xERA and FIP? Like part of the reason groundballs have lower run probabilities is they occasionally lead to double plays. If a guy has a particular skill to generate ground balls situationally that might not be captured, but I don’t know whether that exists or not. Not sure. Like if Stroman has a sequence tonight that’s like -ball crushed for a double -walk -deep fly ball for an out -ground ball double-play do this metrics know what to do with that? Like to some extent that’s luck because if you take those same actions but change the order you’re looking at either a run on the board or the inning continuing. So does the system knock him for that or reward him for the double play and not allowing anyone to score?
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Jul 27, 2024 10:29:37 GMT -5
Just got back from a trip to Grand Teton/Yellowstone/Glacier National Parks. Picked a good set of games to miss post-ASB. Glad to come back to an exciting win from the comfort of my own couch.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 27, 2024 11:49:15 GMT -5
Just got back from a trip to Grand Teton/Yellowstone/Glacier National Parks. Picked a good set of games to miss post-ASB. Glad to come back to an exciting win from the comfort of my own couch. Did you also visit Waterton and Banff ? In Glacier, there's a funny sign about grizzlies. Amongst other things, it advises wearing little bells on your shoes to avoid surprising a bear. Then on the bottom on how to identify grizzlies it says their droppings often have little bells in them.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 27, 2024 11:58:25 GMT -5
When do they move Rafaela up to the #2 spot in the lineup? Now that he seems settled in, I think it makes more sense to have him toward the top of the lineup. Especially against LHP. Rafaela doesn’t actually have big splits this year. Even against lefties he’s only got the 8th best wRC+ of their regular lineup. Overall he’s been their 7th best hitter in July. Ideally the best hitter bats second, so I’m not sure there’s any scenario where it makes sense to bat Rafaela there.
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pd
Veteran
Posts: 324
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Post by pd on Jul 27, 2024 12:52:09 GMT -5
When do they move Rafaela up to the #2 spot in the lineup? Now that he seems settled in, I think it makes more sense to have him toward the top of the lineup. Especially against LHP. Rafaela doesn’t actually have big splits this year. Even against lefties he’s only got the 8th best wRC+ of their regular lineup. Overall he’s been their 7th best hitter in July. Ideally the best hitter bats second, so I’m not sure there’s any scenario where it makes sense to bat Rafaela there. Moving him up to 6 or 7 does make sense to me. He's hitting behind guys with low OBP, which doesn't take full advantage of his propensity for driving guys in. Maybe that's been luck, but it sure has seemed real.
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art
Veteran
Posts: 382
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Post by art on Jul 27, 2024 13:25:25 GMT -5
Just got back from a trip to Grand Teton/Yellowstone/Glacier National Parks. Picked a good set of games to miss post-ASB. Glad to come back to an exciting win from the comfort of my own couch. Did you also visit Waterton and Banff ? In Glacier, there's a funny sign about grizzlies. Amongst other things, it advises wearing little bells on your shoes to avoid surprising a bear. Then on the bottom on how to identify grizzlies it says their droppings often have little bells in them. Any time a post makes me chuckle it gets a thumbs up from me.
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art
Veteran
Posts: 382
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Post by art on Jul 27, 2024 13:39:35 GMT -5
Rafaela doesn’t actually have big splits this year. Even against lefties he’s only got the 8th best wRC+ of their regular lineup. Overall he’s been their 7th best hitter in July. Ideally the best hitter bats second, so I’m not sure there’s any scenario where it makes sense to bat Rafaela there. Moving him up to 6 or 7 does make sense to me. He's hitting behind guys with low OBP, which doesn't take full advantage of his propensity for driving guys in. Maybe that's been luck, but it sure has seemed real. I agree on 6 or 7. He'd need to be able to maintain a higher OBP to merit being in the 2 slot.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 27, 2024 14:12:49 GMT -5
2023: Chase that perfect swing and miss on a low and away slider. 2024: Eh just aim for the middle of the plate
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,524
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Post by asm18 on Jul 27, 2024 14:26:07 GMT -5
Nasty stuff in the strike zone baby
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 27, 2024 18:05:22 GMT -5
Casas apparently starting a rehab assignment next week.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Jul 27, 2024 18:19:34 GMT -5
Great start by the umpire misses a ball pretty much right down the middle
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 27, 2024 18:20:00 GMT -5
Verdugo is such a bonehead lol
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 27, 2024 18:20:45 GMT -5
Crawford is picking up where he left off. Giving up missiles.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 27, 2024 18:21:24 GMT -5
Ooooof
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