SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Red Sox Acquire James Paxton
|
Post by nonothing on Jul 26, 2024 20:07:48 GMT -5
This isn't working the margins. The MLB pitching staff depth is suddenly in a shambles both in the rotation and in the bullpen. Paxton's fastball has been garbage this year, but it looked good against them in his last start and they probably have faith in Bailey to try and figure it out. If they can get an MLB starter, even if he's a legit #5, in exchange for a DSL flyer, you make that trade every day and twice on Sunday. If he's not, then they didn't give up much and can move on. I'm not sure that this precludes them from doing anything else. They could easily go and get another starter given the concerns about Houck's and Crawford's workloads and whether Jeckyl or Hyde Pivetta is going to show up on a given day. For what it's worth on Bolivar, he's a decent lottery ticket from the DR program, but I asked someone in the know for who some of the top guys down there have been this year and got a list of 8 hitters. Bolivar wasn't one. Easily could've slipped this person's mind but like, it's not like he was their top guy. Maybe he turns into Gregory Santos but he's more likely somewhere closer to Noelberth Romero. I don't get being upset about this deal. would not classify my attitude as upset, just not a fan, for the reasons I stated. I would disagree this isn't working on the margains, but that may be subjective. I don't have all the information about what or who is avialable, or at what cost. The fact he didn't cost that much suggests to me that it is on the margains, vis-a-vis the Dodgers didn't expect to get much more of an offer. It certainly isn't a major trade. Maybe this deal gets in the way of a better one closer to the deadline. They made their choice, hope it works out. He isn't that good a pitcher. We have to be honest a bit here. This move takes a roster spot that could be used for any other pitcher that may have available fo trade. Some of my commentary was directed to reading the posts, that seemed to me be much of the same narrative that has existed for the past few yeas. Let's not spend too much prospect capital, or money, whatever it may be. With apologies, I just don't want to subscribe to that anymore. I think Paxton is above Speas, Wingenter and Keller. That's 3 guys who I suspect they would DFA before Paxton. They gave up a guy they signed for $25k. They can find another kid with the same chance of making the big leagues as Bolivar for $25k. They didn't even cut anyone to add Paxton to the roster. If they find 4 pitchers to add and need to DFA Paxton, they can. Until then, he can eat innings. This is really almost unambiguously a neutral impact expected signing at worst. At best, he could prove a big upside surprise working back with a team where he was comfortable. It almost certainly does not inhibit any other deal.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 26, 2024 21:53:35 GMT -5
would not classify my attitude as upset, just not a fan, for the reasons I stated. I would disagree this isn't working on the margains, but that may be subjective. I don't have all the information about what or who is avialable, or at what cost. The fact he didn't cost that much suggests to me that it is on the margains, vis-a-vis the Dodgers didn't expect to get much more of an offer. It certainly isn't a major trade. Maybe this deal gets in the way of a better one closer to the deadline. They made their choice, hope it works out. He isn't that good a pitcher. We have to be honest a bit here. This move takes a roster spot that could be used for any other pitcher that may have available fo trade. Some of my commentary was directed to reading the posts, that seemed to me be much of the same narrative that has existed for the past few yeas. Let's not spend too much prospect capital, or money, whatever it may be. With apologies, I just don't want to subscribe to that anymore. I think Paxton is above Speas, Wingenter and Keller. That's 3 guys who I suspect they would DFA before Paxton. They gave up a guy they signed for $25k. They can find another kid with the same chance of making the big leagues as Bolivar for $25k. They didn't even cut anyone to add Paxton to the roster. If they find 4 pitchers to add and need to DFA Paxton, they can. Until then, he can eat innings. This is really almost unambiguously a neutral impact expected signing at worst. At best, he could prove a big upside surprise working back with a team where he was comfortable. It almost certainly does not inhibit any other deal. You guys are smarter than I on this stuff. But there is no decision that is made, in baseball or in life, that doesn't have opportunity cost. So while, all this may be true, I wonder if you can tell me if you think they are going to, or should, make a deal bigger than this before the deadline. Because, not to put too fine a point on it, that was the biggest part of my initial response in this thread. If you or Chris or others like this move or think it is not inhibitive. or even that important. to anything else they may do, that is kind of my point. This is fine for what it is, but I would rather they play in the big sandbox.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 26, 2024 22:16:16 GMT -5
I think Paxton is above Speas, Wingenter and Keller. That's 3 guys who I suspect they would DFA before Paxton. They gave up a guy they signed for $25k. They can find another kid with the same chance of making the big leagues as Bolivar for $25k. They didn't even cut anyone to add Paxton to the roster. If they find 4 pitchers to add and need to DFA Paxton, they can. Until then, he can eat innings. This is really almost unambiguously a neutral impact expected signing at worst. At best, he could prove a big upside surprise working back with a team where he was comfortable. It almost certainly does not inhibit any other deal. You guys are smarter than I on this stuff. But there is no decision that is made, in baseball or in life, that doesn't have opportunity cost. So while, all this may be true, I wonder if you can tell me if you think they are going to, or should, make a deal bigger than this before the deadline. Because, not to put too fine a point on it, that was the biggest part of my initial response in this thread. If you or Chris or others like this move or think it is not inhibitive. or even that important. to anything else they may do, that is kind of my point. This is fine for what it is, but I would rather they play in the big sandbox. Depends on the cost of playing in the sandbox. I'd rather the Sox do smaller moves and preserve the guys who I think will be core members one day, which for me is Mayer, Anthony, Teel, Camobell, Montgomery, and Arias. I'd discuss anybody else but not them which would mean theyd have to aim lower. Which I'm certainly ok with. I dont think they need to swing for the fences to make the playoffs.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 27, 2024 1:54:28 GMT -5
You guys are smarter than I on this stuff. But there is no decision that is made, in baseball or in life, that doesn't have opportunity cost. So while, all this may be true, I wonder if you can tell me if you think they are going to, or should, make a deal bigger than this before the deadline. Because, not to put too fine a point on it, that was the biggest part of my initial response in this thread. If you or Chris or others like this move or think it is not inhibitive. or even that important. to anything else they may do, that is kind of my point. This is fine for what it is, but I would rather they play in the big sandbox. Depends on the cost of playing in the sandbox. I'd rather the Sox do smaller moves and preserve the guys who I think will be core members one day, which for me is Mayer, Anthony, Teel, Camobell, Montgomery, and Arias. I'd discuss anybody else but not them which would mean theyd have to aim lower. Which I'm certainly ok with. I dont think they need to swing for the fences to make the playoffs. It's notable that your core doesn't include pitching.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 27, 2024 2:18:48 GMT -5
Depends on the cost of playing in the sandbox. I'd rather the Sox do smaller moves and preserve the guys who I think will be core members one day, which for me is Mayer, Anthony, Teel, Camobell, Montgomery, and Arias. I'd discuss anybody else but not them which would mean theyd have to aim lower. Which I'm certainly ok with. I dont think they need to swing for the fences to make the playoffs. It's notable that your core doesn't include pitching. My hope is that Craig continues to fill the void w/ moves like this one until Sandlin, Perales or others can come together over the next couple of years. Then there’s also FA options this offseason in Burnes, Fried and Roki. One would have to think though that if the Mariners don’t make the playoffs this offseason, Kirby and/or Gilbert must become available as they really, really, really need elite hitters. Then and only then would I be completely ok w/ trading some combo of Anthony, Campbell, Bleis and Arias.
|
|
|
Post by cba82 on Jul 27, 2024 6:25:10 GMT -5
Poor Bailey Horn — got the win last night vs. the Yankees, and may be optioned today to make room for Paxton.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Jul 27, 2024 6:46:21 GMT -5
Is it weird to anyone else that MLB teams can trade 16 year old kids from places like the Dominican? I feel like there should be a minimum age for being traded.
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,524
|
Post by asm18 on Jul 27, 2024 8:11:58 GMT -5
Is it weird to anyone else that MLB teams can trade 16 year old kids from places like the Dominican? I feel like there should be a minimum age for being traded. When you frame it like that, yeah it is kind of insane
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 27, 2024 9:29:42 GMT -5
Depends on the cost of playing in the sandbox. I'd rather the Sox do smaller moves and preserve the guys who I think will be core members one day, which for me is Mayer, Anthony, Teel, Camobell, Montgomery, and Arias. I'd discuss anybody else but not them which would mean theyd have to aim lower. Which I'm certainly ok with. I dont think they need to swing for the fences to make the playoffs. It's notable that your core doesn't include pitching. That's because there really isnt a pitching core yet. I like David Sandlin the best of who they got. Cruz-Rodriguez, if I have the name right, is intriguing. But it's not like when I was a kid and you had Hurst, then Tudor, then Ojeda, then Boyd, then Nipper, and eventually Clemens, who you knew if he'd stay healthy would be a star. They develop pitchers differently these days so I have no idea what a promising pitching prospect looks like. Crawford and Houck came up and I had no idea if they're starters or relievers. Wasnt like that then. You knew they were starters, groomed to throw 200 innings. Now they're relievers who can start and are trained to throw as hard as they can with as much spin as they can for a about 150 innings or until their next TJS. It's almost like pitchers are more interchangeable these days, so its hard for me to say the Sox need to hang onto this guy or that guy. Besides look at all their top 5 lists. Do you see any pitchers on them? No, you dont. Maybe that changes one day, but it isnt now or the near future.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Jul 27, 2024 9:32:04 GMT -5
Why aren’t Houck Crawford and Bello the pitching core?
|
|
|
Post by nonothing on Jul 27, 2024 9:33:46 GMT -5
I think Paxton is above Speas, Wingenter and Keller. That's 3 guys who I suspect they would DFA before Paxton. They gave up a guy they signed for $25k. They can find another kid with the same chance of making the big leagues as Bolivar for $25k. They didn't even cut anyone to add Paxton to the roster. If they find 4 pitchers to add and need to DFA Paxton, they can. Until then, he can eat innings. This is really almost unambiguously a neutral impact expected signing at worst. At best, he could prove a big upside surprise working back with a team where he was comfortable. It almost certainly does not inhibit any other deal. You guys are smarter than I on this stuff. But there is no decision that is made, in baseball or in life, that doesn't have opportunity cost. So while, all this may be true, I wonder if you can tell me if you think they are going to, or should, make a deal bigger than this before the deadline. Because, not to put too fine a point on it, that was the biggest part of my initial response in this thread. If you or Chris or others like this move or think it is not inhibitive. or even that important. to anything else they may do, that is kind of my point. This is fine for what it is, but I would rather they play in the big sandbox. I think it is potentially very important in a positive way, but very low opportunity cost to the system because they only had to move a guy to IL-60. It will come at an opportunity cost to the MLB roster because it will swap a guy off, but that is something I, and I think Chris but wouldn't pretend to speak for him, would argue they needed (and still need) more depth to be able to do to make it through the long season and playoffs without burning out their best arms. And, if Paxton is not better than rotating say Keller or Speas through the MLB roster, they can always drop him. Losing Bolivar and $25k is just not that impactful. The other opportunity cost is that if Mata returns to AAA before year end, somebody may have to be released from the 165 DRL. But by then another guy could be hurt and they wouldn't even have to do that. I think mainly the point is you cannot just count on your 13 best arms and that's it to get you through the season. And the complaints about guys like Weissert or Kelly losing effectiveness are often more the result of overuse than that the guy simply isn't good. They need rest to be effective over a long season. So work on what some say are the "margins" can make the core stronger.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 27, 2024 9:33:47 GMT -5
Why aren’t Houck Crawford and Bello the pitching core? I was thinking along the lines of the minors pitchers coming up to the majors, so that was just poor wording on my part. I dont see many obvious candidates to join them soon. Do you? I think Sandlin is their best bet.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 27, 2024 9:35:26 GMT -5
Is it weird to anyone else that MLB teams can trade 16 year old kids from places like the Dominican? I feel like there should be a minimum age for being traded. When you frame it like that, yeah it is kind of insane I don’t know. Put yourself in young Moises’s shoes. He’s living at the Sox DSL facility and now he moves to the Dodgers facility. Getting traded for an actual big league pitcher that all his friends have heard of probably makes him instantly the coolest kid in his peer group. I would think it certainly makes his introduction to the Dodgers group that much smoother. I doubt he feels any more pressure than the kids who get the big bonuses. I’m guessing he feels pretty awesome this morning. “The Dodgers really wanted me.” Edit: I bet his uncles and cousins partied all night.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 27, 2024 9:46:26 GMT -5
Why aren’t Houck Crawford and Bello the pitching core? I was thinking along the lines of the minors pitchers coming up to the majors, so that was just poor wording on my part. I dont see many obvious candidates to join them soon. Do you? I think Sandlin is their best bet. Crawford has always been a starter. AC even came out and said it when he was struggling with a 5+ ERA and got moved to the pen a couple times because he was the low man on the ladder at the time. It just takes time for most starters to be ready.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Jul 27, 2024 9:49:47 GMT -5
Why aren’t Houck Crawford and Bello the pitching core? I was thinking along the lines of the minors pitchers coming up to the majors, so that was just poor wording on my part. I dont see many obvious candidates to join them soon. Do you? I think Sandlin is their best bet. Sandlin or Tolle probably, but I wouldn’t have seen Crawford coming and they have other guys in the high minors of that ilk, so who knows. But also do they need another minor leaguer to become a good starter in the next few years? 3 is pretty good, you can supplement that with FAs and I think you’re in a good spot, especially if they add say Burnes
|
|
|
Post by patford on Jul 27, 2024 10:30:35 GMT -5
Why aren’t Houck Crawford and Bello the pitching core? Because they aren't prospects? The Sox do have in the minors a group of intriguing arms who should be untouchable. Based only on age and scouting reports + performance the names might include: Luis Perales, David Sandlin, Yordanny Monegro, Ovis Portes, Elmer Rodriguez. Now Juan Valera is suddenly looking exciting.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 27, 2024 10:36:14 GMT -5
Why aren’t Houck Crawford and Bello the pitching core? Because they aren't prospects? The Sox do have in the minors a group of intriguing arms who should be untouchable. Based only on age and scouting reports + performance the names might include: Luis Perales, David Sandlin, Yordanny Monegro, Ovis Portes, Elmer Rodriguez. Now Juan Valera is suddenly looking exciting. Generally, a “core” is just a group of young players that you project to contribute for the team over a long period of time, they aren’t automatically excluded once they lose prospect status.
|
|
|
Post by patford on Jul 27, 2024 10:43:25 GMT -5
Because they aren't prospects? The Sox do have in the minors a group of intriguing arms who should be untouchable. Based only on age and scouting reports + performance the names might include: Luis Perales, David Sandlin, Yordanny Monegro, Ovis Portes, Elmer Rodriguez. Now Juan Valera is suddenly looking exciting. Generally, a “core” is just a group of young players that you project to contribute for the team over a long period of time, they aren’t automatically excluded once they lose prospect status. True but I don't think that is the context being used in this case. Even the big three or four can't be counted on at this point but they are sort of seen as a future core. One reason I don't like moving high ceiling prospects is you can't predict which are going to pan out. So the Sox have an apparent surplus of toolsy position players but as far we know they all might turn into the next Gilberto Jimenez.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Jul 27, 2024 10:51:28 GMT -5
Generally, a “core” is just a group of young players that you project to contribute for the team over a long period of time, they aren’t automatically excluded once they lose prospect status. True but I don't think that is the context being used in this case. Even the big three or four can't be counted on at this point but they are sort of seen as a future core. One reason I don't like moving high ceiling prospects is you can't predict which are going to pan out. So the Sox have an apparent surplus of toolsy position players but as far we know they all might turn into the next Gilberto Jimenez. My original point was basically that the context didn’t make sense because it seemed to be excluding the guys in MLB with control. I’d argue that Houck, Crawford and Bello are more clearly part of the team’s core than even Mayer right now.
|
|
|
Post by dcsoxfan15 on Jul 27, 2024 10:56:58 GMT -5
Is it weird to anyone else that MLB teams can trade 16 year old kids from places like the Dominican? I feel like there should be a minimum age for being traded. You should check out the way that soccer academies and transfers work in the rest of the world!
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 27, 2024 12:05:48 GMT -5
I was thinking along the lines of the minors pitchers coming up to the majors, so that was just poor wording on my part. I dont see many obvious candidates to join them soon. Do you? I think Sandlin is their best bet. Crawford has always been a starter. AC even came out and said it when he was struggling with a 5+ ERA and got moved to the pen a couple times because he was the low man on the ladder at the time. It just takes time for most starters to be ready. I know Crawford was starting in the minors but the report on his was mid to back end starter of high leverage reliever. This was unlike Bello who was projected as a starter all the way.
|
|
|
Post by keninten on Jul 27, 2024 12:18:43 GMT -5
When you frame it like that, yeah it is kind of insane I don’t know. Put yourself in young Moises’s shoes. He’s living at the Sox DSL facility and now he moves to the Dodgers facility. Getting traded for an actual big league pitcher that all his friends have heard of probably makes him instantly the coolest kid in his peer group. I would think it certainly makes his introduction to the Dodgers group that much smoother. I doubt he feels any more pressure than the kids who get the big bonuses. I’m guessing he feels pretty awesome this morning. “The Dodgers really wanted me.” Edit: I bet his uncles and cousins partied all night. That`s a whole lot of assuming.
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Jul 27, 2024 13:06:13 GMT -5
Why aren’t Houck Crawford and Bello the pitching core? I was thinking along the lines of the minors pitchers coming up to the majors, so that was just poor wording on my part. I dont see many obvious candidates to join them soon. Do you? I think Sandlin is their best bet. sox are either going to have to trade for or continue to sign a pitcher or 2. The Sox arnt the rays, they have the resources to Do so.
|
|
|
Post by bojacksoxfan on Jul 27, 2024 15:20:36 GMT -5
True but I don't think that is the context being used in this case. Even the big three or four can't be counted on at this point but they are sort of seen as a future core. One reason I don't like moving high ceiling prospects is you can't predict which are going to pan out. So the Sox have an apparent surplus of toolsy position players but as far we know they all might turn into the next Gilberto Jimenez. My original point was basically that the context didn’t make sense because it seemed to be excluding the guys in MLB with control. I’d argue that Houck, Crawford and Bello are more clearly part of the team’s core than even Mayer right now. It's all semantics and not a big deal, but to be a bit of a contrarian... Houk is already 28 and has 3 more years of control. MLB careers and contractual control are so short, I'm not sure it really makes sense to consider someone like Houk in the same core group as the 20-23 yr old position players coming up. That's the Sox long term core, if they have one. By the time those guys are coming into their own Houck will be nearing 30 and free agency. Houck is a prime age, win now player. And this will really not be well received, but there is a decent amount of evidence that Bello is just not really good enough to be thought of as a core player or the concept of a "core player" is too broad to have much meaning. And I know I will be killed for saying Bello can't get better even though I have not said that, but right now he's a ~1.5 fWAR player who hasn't gotten better into his age 25 season. If every player who can put up a 1-2 WAR season is a core player, than the concept of a "core player" is kind of meaningless imo. Core players should be capable of putting up impact seasons or at least string together solidly above average ones. The longer Bello goes without doing that, the more likely he just can't. That's a complementary player, not a core player imo.
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,524
|
Post by asm18 on Jul 27, 2024 15:59:13 GMT -5
Paxton is starting Tuesday vs Seattle, and Criswell is being moved to the bullpen “starting today”
|
|
|