|
Post by incandenza on Jul 30, 2024 13:58:33 GMT -5
Ovis Portes is the next Darwinzon Hernandez or Wikelman Gonzalez. People complaining about Sims BB rate in the Majors must be completely ignoring Portes struggles to date. Finding an MiLB Pitcher who succceed with a 5+ (6 in Portes's case) + BB/9 in A ball is about impossible. In fact, I have been paying close attention to the Redsox farm since 1995. Since then, the Redsox haven't had a single pitcher go on to have any type of successw ho had a 5+ BB/9 in A ball. This is going all the way back to the Michigan Battle Cats. It includes the Augusta GreenJackets. I guess the one saving grace for him is it's only 21.0 ip. Then again, there have been no successfull pitchers out of the Redsox Farm system who had a BB/9 of 5+ with over 20 ips since at least 1995. So yeah. Real big loss. Not. Maybe he's the one exception in 30 years. Luis Perales pending I guess...
|
|
|
Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 30, 2024 14:00:46 GMT -5
My takeaway from Breslow so far is he is not going to shy away from painful trades when the Sox are in their windows of contention
|
|
|
Post by rickasadoorian on Jul 30, 2024 14:03:23 GMT -5
Ovis Portes is the next Darwinzon Hernandez or Wikelman Gonzalez. People complaining about Sims BB rate in the Majors must be completely ignoring Portes struggles to date. Finding an MiLB Pitcher who succceed with a 5+ (6 in Portes's case) + BB/9 in A ball is about impossible. In fact, I have been paying close attention to the Redsox farm since 1995. Since then, the Redsox haven't had a single pitcher go on to have any type of successw ho had a 5+ BB/9 in A ball. This is going all the way back to the Michigan Battle Cats. It includes the Augusta GreenJackets. I guess the one saving grace for him is it's only 21.0 ip. Then again, there have been no successfull pitchers out of the Redsox Farm system who had a BB/9 of 5+ with over 20 ips since at least 1995. So yeah. Real big loss. Not. Maybe he's the one exception in 30 years. Luis Perales pending I guess... Luis Perales didn't have a BB/9 of 5+ in A ball in 20+ innings of work. He had a 5+ BB/9 in A+ in 36.1 ip. And like you said, it's still pending. edit: I guess if you combine his A ball time, he did have a BB/9 of 5.5.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 30, 2024 14:04:17 GMT -5
Also very minor detail but why DFA Walter instead of 60 day DLing him? Walter was still on the 40-man because he was on the milb I.L. Sox or any claiming team would have to put him on the MLB 60-day ... to avoid counting him toward 40 player limit. That would move Walter to minimum MLB salary of 120k per month. For that reason, I hope someone claims him.
|
|
briam
Veteran
Posts: 1,180
|
Post by briam on Jul 30, 2024 14:04:45 GMT -5
Really not a fan of acquiring a guy that rivals Weissert in getting tuned up.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 30, 2024 14:04:55 GMT -5
My takeaway from Breslow so far is he is not going to shy away from painful trades when the Sox are in their windows of contention Has he made any painful trades? As much as I'm grumbling about trading Ovis Portes for a middle reliever I wouldn't actually call it "painful." The highest ranked prospect he's traded since coming here is Paulino. Or Yorke, but that was essentially a swap for another prospect.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 30, 2024 14:07:29 GMT -5
My takeaway from Breslow so far is he is not going to shy away from painful trades when the Sox are in their windows of contention Has he made any painful trades? As much as I'm grumbling about trading Ovis Portes for a middle reliever I wouldn't actually call it "painful." The highest ranked prospect he's traded since coming here is Paulino. Or Yorke, but that was essentially a swap for another prospect. For me I take this as saying that he won’t shy away from a huge move when the Sox actually are no doubt contenders when the big 3/4 take over.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 30, 2024 14:12:34 GMT -5
Has he made any painful trades? As much as I'm grumbling about trading Ovis Portes for a middle reliever I wouldn't actually call it "painful." The highest ranked prospect he's traded since coming here is Paulino. Or Yorke, but that was essentially a swap for another prospect. For me I take this as saying that he won’t shy away from a huge move when the Sox actually are no doubt contenders when the big 3/4 take over. But what has he done to make anyone think he will do that? Not that I think he won't; I just don't see any evidence one way or the other.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 30, 2024 14:14:34 GMT -5
For me I take this as saying that he won’t shy away from a huge move when the Sox actually are no doubt contenders when the big 3/4 take over. But what has he done to make anyone think he will do that? Not that I think he won't; I just don't see any evidence one way or the other. Oh, it’s a total guess. But even though the moves have been marginal, this is really the most activity we’ve seen since maybe 2021.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 30, 2024 14:16:36 GMT -5
Has he made any painful trades? As much as I'm grumbling about trading Ovis Portes for a middle reliever I wouldn't actually call it "painful." The highest ranked prospect he's traded since coming here is Paulino. Or Yorke, but that was essentially a swap for another prospect. For me I take this as saying that he won’t shy away from a huge move when the Sox actually are no doubt contenders when the big 3/4 take over. I think this is the hardest deadline one can have. You're on the outside looking in, you're not playing well, you're super close and your team has very sustainable needs. I think trading a top prospect when you're in first is easier than middling and on the bubble. Same with selling. The worst thing he can do is just make marginal moves, but that is the easiest path to walk in this situation. Long winded way of saying, what he does this deadline will hopefully give me hope that he will be bullish when the time is right as long as he buys or sells (or both) now.
|
|
|
Post by Darwin's Curve on Jul 30, 2024 14:18:23 GMT -5
I'm pretty happy overall with this, when fully healthy we're looking at a bullpen of: LM: Cooper Criswell RP: Brennan Bernardino/Cam Booser RP: Zack Kelly RP: Lucas Sims RP: Justin Slaten RP: Chris Martin SU: Liam Hendriks CL: Kenley Jansen that's a playoff quality bullpen, if we could just get a better a competent lefty middle reliever i'd be pretty happy with everything. We can dream on Liam Hendricks, but I think we’ll see him next in Ft. Myers. We'll know more very soon as he's getting the final green light on his elbow before starting rehab. So it's not very much of a dream. He'll be back in August, barring any medical setbacks. Setbacks that are possible, but that we have no reason to actually expect.
|
|
|
Post by chaimtime on Jul 30, 2024 14:25:01 GMT -5
I think the bigger thing is the projection systems see “high walk rate, low ground ball rate, pitches in GAB” and determine “this guy will give up a lot of home runs.” That is understandable, but he’s also got a track record of making it work, plus he’s going to one of the more home-run-averse parks. It’s pretty easy to see why they wanted him, he could easily lock in for two months and give them a reliable 7th inning guy. Worst case scenario he’s no worse than Bailey Horn or a gassed Greg Weissert. The worst case scenario is that Portes is good. Or, at least, has higher trade value in a year or two than he does now.
Actually, given the wording of Portes' scouting report...
...one of the better-case scenarios is that they gave up a long-term cost-controlled reliever with upside for two months' of a middling middle reliever.
Okay, I agree that Ovis Portes is a steep price to pay. I think there’s a chance he turns into a very good player. We weren’t talking about Ovis Portes, though. We were talking about why I disagreed with your evaluation of Lucas Sims. Also, I don’t think that’s the right way to interpret that report. If Portes’s floor was “solid MLB reliever with late-inning potential” then he’d be higher than 29th on this site. His floor is still “doesn’t improve his command enough to get past AA.”
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 30, 2024 14:28:47 GMT -5
The worst case scenario is that Portes is good. Or, at least, has higher trade value in a year or two than he does now.
Actually, given the wording of Portes' scouting report...
...one of the better-case scenarios is that they gave up a long-term cost-controlled reliever with upside for two months' of a middling middle reliever.
Okay, I agree that Ovis Portes is a steep price to pay. I think there’s a chance he turns into a very good player. We weren’t talking about Ovis Portes, though. We were talking about why I disagreed with your evaluation of Lucas Sims. Also, I don’t think that’s the right way to interpret that report. If Portes’s floor was “solid MLB reliever with late-inning potential” then he’d be higher than 29th on this site. His floor is still “doesn’t improve his command enough to get past AA.” Okay, we can agree to agree then. I just hate giving up anything of value at all for relievers, all of whom exist in a chaos space of total ephemerality and unpredictability.
|
|
|
Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 30, 2024 14:30:53 GMT -5
For me I take this as saying that he won’t shy away from a huge move when the Sox actually are no doubt contenders when the big 3/4 take over. But what has he done to make anyone think he will do that? Not that I think he won't; I just don't see any evidence one way or the other. Relative to where the Sox are, I consider the Jansen and Sims trades pretty painful. 3 top 30ish guys for 2 rentals closer to depth than major impact when the Sox are 8th in AL in playoff odds. Will they be that big of a deal? Maybe not, but I do think it’s indicative of what they’ll be willing to do when it’s a 60% chance to win the division in a few years
|
|
|
Post by LoneStarSox on Jul 30, 2024 14:31:58 GMT -5
Was really hoping Stats would drop in from the rafters with some underlying metrics to build a case. Todays not that day :/
|
|
|
Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 30, 2024 14:36:05 GMT -5
But what has he done to make anyone think he will do that? Not that I think he won't; I just don't see any evidence one way or the other. Relative to where the Sox are, I consider the Jansen and Sims trades pretty painful. 3 top 30ish guys for 2 rentals closer to depth than major impact when the Sox are 8th in AL in playoff odds. Will they be that big of a deal? Maybe not, but I do think it’s indicative of what they’ll be willing to do when it’s a 60% chance to win the division in a few years Eh, agree to disagree. Jansen trade is slightly questionable, but I still don’t see Coffey ever being an impact MLB and I didn’t see the team protecting Paulino in the Rule 5 this offseason. Portes seemed *potentially* promising, but he’s so far off to really know for sure. Not to mention, relative to what other teams have paid for RP, this wasn’t the worst exchange.
|
|
|
Post by soxin8 on Jul 30, 2024 14:50:13 GMT -5
I am with the people sad to lose Portes. I think I got spoiled with the low cost of the Paxton trade.
Does this trade remind anyone of the Robles for Scherff trade in 2021? I think the board questioned if Hansel would help at all but he turned out to be a pretty important piece getting the Sox to that playoff game with NY. Maybe Sims surprises us with the cutter notstarboard mentioned has improved his results. Portes does look like a better prospect than Scherff was though.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 30, 2024 14:50:29 GMT -5
It's simple for me: they need warm bodies. Weissert's arm is about to fall off with Booser and Bernardino watching and then staring down at their own limp appendages.
Anyone complaining about Wingenter last evening is really missing the point. Ahead 14-3 they had a golden opportunity for a game without more wear and tear on those guys. And for all his struggles he does have a pulse.
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 30, 2024 14:56:36 GMT -5
My takeaway from Breslow so far is he is not going to shy away from painful trades when the Sox are in their windows of contention Has he made any painful trades? As much as I'm grumbling about trading Ovis Portes for a middle reliever I wouldn't actually call it "painful." The highest ranked prospect he's traded since coming here is Paulino. Or Yorke, but that was essentially a swap for another prospect. He really hasn’t. I really liked the Yorke trade. Jansen wasn’t a painful deal at all and it was a reasonable return. He also crushed the O’Neill trade. This deal though is meh. It doesn’t move the needle it just is. It’s a trade.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,645
|
Post by cdj on Jul 30, 2024 14:56:51 GMT -5
I am with the people sad to lose Portes. I think I got spoiled with the low cost of the Paxton trade. Does this trade remind anyone of the Robles for Scherff trade in 2021? I think the board questioned if Hansel would help at all but he turned out to be a pretty important piece getting the Sox to that playoff game with NY. Maybe Sims surprises us with the cutter notstarboard mentioned has improved his results. Portes does look like a better prospect than Scherff was though. Shades of it, Portes has more upside than Scherff did at that point though imo Makes sense though the market is crazy out there
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 30, 2024 14:58:17 GMT -5
Relative to where the Sox are, I consider the Jansen and Sims trades pretty painful. 3 top 30ish guys for 2 rentals closer to depth than major impact when the Sox are 8th in AL in playoff odds. Will they be that big of a deal? Maybe not, but I do think it’s indicative of what they’ll be willing to do when it’s a 60% chance to win the division in a few years Eh, agree to disagree. Jansen trade is slightly questionable, but I still don’t see Coffey ever being an impact MLB and I didn’t see the team protecting Paulino in the Rule 5 this offseason. Portes seemed *potentially* promising, but he’s so far off to really know for sure. Not to mention, relative to what other teams have paid for RP, this wasn’t the worst exchange. That potential has to be weighted with a high risk/reward ratio. His future value comes with that discount if we insist on a pure economic play.
|
|
|
Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Jul 30, 2024 15:06:02 GMT -5
I Hated this trade, Hated it, Ovis was one of my favorites in regards to Helium/IFA Kids/Pitcher ...
Then I started reading about Sims K rates (liked him a little bit more) then I started reading the Cincy fans blowing up on multiple message boards. They were under the impression that Sims is a top setup man and they were hoping to retain him and eventually he'd be a lockdown 8th inning guy or closer in the future.
The statements were very much a like "get ready for him to walk the leadoff batter, but also get ready for a guy who simply isn't phased by pressure, enters another gear with runners on, tough veteran presence wil stabilize that bullpen." Of course Im paraphrasing, but a lot of Cincinnati fans who have seen Sims a lot Hate this trade.
Ive come around on this one.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,645
|
Post by cdj on Jul 30, 2024 15:10:00 GMT -5
I Hated this trade, Hated it, Ovis was one of my favorites in regards to Helium/IFA Kids/Pitcher ... Then I started reading about Sims K rates (liked him a little bit more) then I started reading the Cincy fans blowing up on multiple message boards. They were under the impression that Sims is a top setup man and they were hoping to retain him and eventually he'd be a lockdown 8th inning guy or closer in the future. The statements were very much a like "get ready for him to walk the leadoff batter, but also get ready for a guy who simply isn't phased by pressure, enters another gear with runners on, tough veteran presence wil stabilize that bullpen." Of course Im paraphrasing, but a lot of Cincinnati fans who have seen Sims a lot Hate this trade. Ive come around on this one. Peripheral/projective stats like FIP don’t account for BigNuts+
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 30, 2024 15:14:31 GMT -5
I Hated this trade, Hated it, Ovis was one of my favorites in regards to Helium/IFA Kids/Pitcher ... Then I started reading about Sims K rates (liked him a little bit more) then I started reading the Cincy fans blowing up on multiple message boards. They were under the impression that Sims is a top setup man and they were hoping to retain him and eventually he'd be a lockdown 8th inning guy or closer in the future. The statements were very much a like "get ready for him to walk the leadoff batter, but also get ready for a guy who simply isn't phased by pressure, enters another gear with runners on, tough veteran presence wil stabilize that bullpen." Of course Im paraphrasing, but a lot of Cincinnati fans who have seen Sims a lot Hate this trade. Ive come around on this one. Peripheral/projective stats like FIP don’t account for BigNuts+ Right - that would be WPA. He's at -0.47 for the season but +4.45 for his career.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,645
|
Post by cdj on Jul 30, 2024 15:17:27 GMT -5
Peripheral/projective stats like FIP don’t account for BigNuts+ Right - that would be WPA. He's at -0.47 for the season but +4.45 for his career. Historically he has big nuts but this season they’ve apparently gotten smaller. Perhaps it is just cold in Cincinnati
|
|