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Will the Red Sox add a front line starter for 2025?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 7, 2024 12:23:37 GMT -5
The current outlook for the 2025 rotation looks like this:
Established starters: Bello Crawford Houck
Not quite established starters: Priester
Starters returning from injury: Giolito
Starters who might be relievers (some returning from injury): Criswell Murphy Whitlock Winckowski
Not rostered depth starters: Alexander Fitts Penrod Sandlin
Rostered depth starters unlikely to arrive in 2025: Gonzalez Perales
You may have noted that there is no category of “Top of rotation, front line, he’s the ace starters” and you may, like me, consider this an urgent need for a team with a young core whose window is just starting to open. Indeed, there was plenty of talk about adding such a starter at the deadline (and its aftermath), as well as in the last off-season, and that will only intensify as the calendar turns to November.
The two main ways of acquiring a front line starter when you don’t have an obvious one tearing a broad-shouldered hole in the minors are trading for one and buying one in free agency. So what will it be? Will ownership pony up for an 8+ year, $30+m AAV contract for a pitcher? Which ones might be targeted and which ones will want to choose BOS? Will CB2 swing a blockbuster trade? For whom and with what assets (without getting into endless, back-and-forth, these-guys-for-that-guy, trade proposals)? Or will he acquire less heralded guys and try to turn them into aces, à la Quinn Priester? Or will he stand pat, mocking the existence of this thread?
There’s a lot to consider that has been sloshing around other threads, e.g. the Abreu, Duran, and Rafaela threads. So here’s a dedicated thread about the next Sox ace — with a poll!
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 7, 2024 12:34:45 GMT -5
My guess/hope is that yes they will acquire one via FA. I just feel like they're in a good spot now to give out a big time deal to a Burnes or Fried. My hope is FA because my guess is that any trade for a true front of the line guy is going to cost one if not multiple of Mayer/Anthony/Teel and probably some combo of Bleis, Campbell, Cespedes, Arias and then even more to acquire. My thought process is that I'd rather have say Burnes at 35-40M a year + whatever the package would cost than cheaper younger front of the rotation SP - the package.
You can afford to pay for front of the line starters in FA when you have a wave of cheap talent coming up that is working it's way through the system now.
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Post by strike23 on Aug 7, 2024 12:35:06 GMT -5
We have a ton of money to spend and nowhere else to spend it (except maybe Soto?) I'd be shocked if we don't sign one of the top 4 pitchers.
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 7, 2024 12:41:16 GMT -5
I will vote yes, not that I truly believe it, but because I want it to be so.
Paxton and Pivetta could come back next year and change the calculus.
As for trading next year’s putative OF starters, that would only happen, I think, if the Sox retain TON or if they are ready to start another. Neither is likely so we keep Duran, Rafella and Abrue. That’s are pretty good group.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Aug 7, 2024 12:48:09 GMT -5
Who we are defining as front line starters? The sexy names usually mentioned are Burnes, Fried, & Sasaki via free agency, and Skubal & Crochet via trade.
Other free agents of note likely will include Blake Snell, Nate Eovaldi, and Jack Flaherty.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 7, 2024 12:49:39 GMT -5
I think they will sign a starter or two, but will not spend on a long term +25 million AAV type of deal. Also do not see a trade, believing the team will stay vested in keeping the youth until they are bumping in to each other for ML roster spots.
Most likey outcome I see is QO for Pivetta who accepts that or a 3yr deal gets worked out with him. If not Nick, they will find different, similar, option.
My favorite outcome would be signing Burnes. Adding that level arm to the staff would be outstanding and taking that arm away from the O's would be tasty gravy. But I.D.K.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 7, 2024 12:53:26 GMT -5
Who we are defining as front line starters? The sexy names usually mentioned are Burnes, Fried, & Sasaki via free agency, and Skubal & Crochet via trade. Other free agents of note likely will include Blake Snell, Nate Eovaldi, and Jack Flaherty. This is a good question, are we talking a true bonafide ace as to which in my opinion there's maybe 10-15 of those guys in the league. Or are we just talking more of a #2/3 starter of which obviously there are many more of those. If the answer is true ace then I'll change my answer to no as the only FA on the market for sure will be Burnes. If it's 2/3 then that opens it up to guys like Fried, Snell, Eovaldi etc and I would say yes.
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Post by jphelan on Aug 7, 2024 13:35:51 GMT -5
Who we are defining as front line starters? The sexy names usually mentioned are Burnes, Fried, & Sasaki via free agency, and Skubal & Crochet via trade. Other free agents of note likely will include Blake Snell, Nate Eovaldi, and Jack Flaherty. FanGraphs had an article about Sasaki. I believe he is not FA eligible and would have to sign based on International bonus money.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 7, 2024 13:44:26 GMT -5
At some point the Sox will trade for a starter, but they need Abreu over the next year or two and I think they're working toward a scenario where eventually Anthony and Montgomery will both man the corners but that's a few years away. I would think Anthony gets to Boston first, a couple of years ahead of Montgomery. When that happens that's when I think Abreu gets dealt, and not before that.
I hope/dont think they will clear out Anthony and others for this supposed young ace with years of service left, etc, that will fit the criteria.
So I think if they make a trade it'll be for a 2/3 starter type down the road involving Abreu and others.
Until then I think they spend their money on Burnes or Fried. The Sox are very loaded around the diamond. Its pitching they need, so that's where the free agent money hopefully gets spent.
I dont think Pivetta is coming back. What you see is what you get with him, a streaky pitcher who can never put together a full season as a 1 or 2 that he can look like on many days. Theyll upgrade from him. Paxton will be gone, too.
They have Houck, Crawford, and Bello, plus a year of Gioloito plus hopefully Burnes or Fried.
Somebody will get hurt and we'll see Priester get his chance. Maybe Fitts, too.
Eventually there will be a need for another starter, with Giolito leaving as Sandlin could be working his way up, but with injuries and attrition I can then see a trade for a pitcher because the Sox would already have tied up a lot of money on Burnes or Fried, and a 2/3 type is what theyd need
I think a free agent ace and a couple of years later a trade for a younger pitcher with service time will make a lot of sense and could be the pitching blueprint down the road.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 7, 2024 13:44:58 GMT -5
I’m on Team Burnes. Greatly improve yourself and hurt the team that is going to be your arch-rival for next 4-5 years.
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Post by itinerantherb on Aug 7, 2024 13:55:45 GMT -5
I'd bet against them signing a guy in his 30s to a 6+ year deal, so an FA in the Burnes/Fried tier seems unlikely to me.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 7, 2024 14:03:17 GMT -5
I voted they will aquire one via free agency, but that's more my thought on what I think they should do. Therefore I hope it into existence. A Burnes/Fried could round out this rotation pretty good.
EDIT: Didn't even read the comments. Seeing that I'm not the only one on the Burnes/Fried train.
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Post by finaliz3d on Aug 7, 2024 14:13:26 GMT -5
They have the money with a lot of guys off the books around 60m in total, they have the prospect capital if they need to trade. I think either way it's a clear need and it just makes too much sense to get one. Without one you're looking at Houck/Giolito/Bello/Crawford/Priester, with one you're looking at Houck/Acquisition/Giolito/Bello/Crawford or Priester. That's significantly better, the plan heading into this year was that it's probably a bridge year for 2025, the team showed you what they could do even under that circumstance in 2024, get it done.
As for who they actually get, idk. Again, if there's any way you avoid giving up the big three for Skubal or somebody comparable (like with say some combination of Abreu, Campbell, + extras) I would do it. I don't think that likely happens, and you're more likely looking at the free agency market with Burnes/Fried. My pick would be Sasaki but he just feels like a done deal to the Dodgers, though, I'd still throw the entire international bonus pool at him if that's what it takes.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 7, 2024 14:14:50 GMT -5
I'd bet against them signing a guy in his 30s to a 6+ year deal, so an FA in the Burnes/Fried tier seems unlikely to me. You're probably right but if they won't do it this offseason then they probably just never will since the timing seems perfect to me with all the young talent already in the majors and making it's way through the minors. So for that reason I do have some hope, if they don't this offseason then I'll just change my tune to say they never will.
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keninten
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Post by keninten on Aug 7, 2024 14:33:46 GMT -5
I`d rather have five # 3s than a 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5.
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badfishnbc
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Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
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Post by badfishnbc on Aug 7, 2024 14:50:24 GMT -5
It's one thing to have money to spend (how much is questionable, and I don't want to get into a barking match about whether Henry will enable them to spend or not). But free agents need to want to come to Boston. And that might require an overpay that isn't realistic. So put me firmly in the "they sign starters but not aces" camp.
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Post by strike23 on Aug 7, 2024 15:19:40 GMT -5
It's one thing to have money to spend (how much is questionable, and I don't want to get into a barking match about whether Henry will enable them to spend or not). But free agents need to want to come to Boston. And that might require an overpay that isn't realistic. So put me firmly in the "they sign starters but not aces" camp. If we run about the same payroll as this year (when everyone was complaining about how cheap we were) we have like $70M to play with this offseason
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Post by cheers on Aug 7, 2024 15:24:50 GMT -5
I`d rather have five # 3s than a 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Given a mintute to think about it, so would I.
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Post by melvinhoggs on Aug 7, 2024 15:36:23 GMT -5
I`d rather have five # 3s than a 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Strong disagree if the team looks like they're good enough to make the playoffs.
That #5 is unlikely to pitch much in a playoff series, not to mention in the future it's a lot easier to upgrade from a 5 to a 3/4 (however you want to define that cutoff) than it is to upgrade from a 3 to a 1/2.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 7, 2024 15:39:11 GMT -5
Yes, via FA
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 7, 2024 15:39:57 GMT -5
I`d rather have five # 3s than a 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. While I would like Burnes or Fried, I could probably talk myself into something like signing Eovaldi and Jack Flaherty or two guys of that sort of tier instead of the big fish since the two guys from that tier might cost the same as Burnes does for probably half the term. It's going to be hard to really trust Giolito coming back from elbow surgery. Problem is if Giolito does come back effective then you have 6 MLB quality starters which frankly isn't really a problem if so. Burnes or Fried/Houck/Crawford/Bello/Giolito vs Houck/Eovaldi/Crawford/Flaherty/Bello/Giolito Obviously in an injury free world you go with the rotation led by Burnes but I could see the rationale in going with option #2. I still probably go with option #1 if somehow I had the choice since they'll still have other depth options to fill in that could pan out in Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Sandlin, other theoretical FA depth starter types etc.
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Post by strike23 on Aug 7, 2024 15:44:11 GMT -5
I`d rather have five # 3s than a 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Given a mintute to think about it, so would I. I think y'all are overestimating what an average #3 is (it's what Criswell has done this year).
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Post by patford on Aug 7, 2024 16:10:32 GMT -5
It's incomprehensible to me why the Sox would give up assets in a trade when they can simply sign Burnes as a Free Agent. The price will be crazy but will only get even more crazy and the Sox haven't gone the drunken sailor route in awhile. He seems to be very durable and has been great every years since 2021. If he blows out his arm by some bad stroke of luck the only person who loses is John Henry.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 7, 2024 16:15:57 GMT -5
It's one thing to have money to spend (how much is questionable, and I don't want to get into a barking match about whether Henry will enable them to spend or not). But free agents need to want to come to Boston. And that might require an overpay that isn't realistic. So put me firmly in the "they sign starters but not aces" camp. Good thing free agents have historically been more than happy to come to Boston.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 7, 2024 16:15:59 GMT -5
Who we are defining as front line starters? The sexy names usually mentioned are Burnes, Fried, & Sasaki via free agency, and Skubal & Crochet via trade. Other free agents of note likely will include Blake Snell, Nate Eovaldi, and Jack Flaherty. I’m defining them as guys who would slot in unquestionably as our top starter. I would agree with most of the guys you mention except Flaherty and maybe Nate.
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