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Will the Red Sox add a front line starter for 2025?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 8, 2024 11:39:58 GMT -5
People keep talking about moving Abreu for a 2/3 but that's going to require a really specific trade partner that's in "compete now" mode and also has an expendable 2/3 SP. A team like the White Sox doesn't benefit nearly as much from Abreu as they would a prospect that aligns more with their contention window. It would seem almost too good of a match to be true but I'd zero in on the Mariners if I was Breslow and preferred the trade route. Their offense stinks and their pitching is good. Removing guys with less than 40 games played for the Mariners Abreu would be their best hitter by wRC+ and their 2nd best everyday player by fWAR behind Cal Raleigh. Now maybe after dealing for Arozarena and an assumed bounce back for J-Rod they may not be that interested in Wilyer but if you added Wilyer to that OF that sure would be a really good OF. I could get behind that. I also keep in mind, though, that it's easier to pitch in Seattle and tougher to hit in Seattle, so there is that part effect, I guess it's harder for the batter to see there, so it helps a pitcher/hurts the batter, so I guess the transition from Seattle to Boston is sort of like an Oakland pitcher coming to Boston in a way, but yeah Gilbert or Kirby is an obvious target and I guess they come as close to the ace definition and consistency things I've mentioned. I guess I neglected to mention them and shouldn't have, but yeah, if Abreu and others were part of the conversation for Kirby or Logan, I'd be all over that, but I would think a bat is easier to pick up for Seattle and that they'd prefer to keep their pitching advantage, because without that, they're nothing. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 8, 2024 11:48:35 GMT -5
It would seem almost too good of a match to be true but I'd zero in on the Mariners if I was Breslow and preferred the trade route. Their offense stinks and their pitching is good. Removing guys with less than 40 games played for the Mariners Abreu would be their best hitter by wRC+ and their 2nd best everyday player by fWAR behind Cal Raleigh. Now maybe after dealing for Arozarena and an assumed bounce back for J-Rod they may not be that interested in Wilyer but if you added Wilyer to that OF that sure would be a really good OF. I could get behind that. I also keep in mind, though, that it's easier to pitch in Seattle and tougher to hit in Seattle, so there is that part effect, I guess it's harder for the batter to see there, so it helps a pitcher/hurts the batter, so I guess the transition from Seattle to Boston is sort of like an Oakland pitcher coming to Boston in a way, but yeah Gilbert or Kirby is an obvious target and I guess they come as close to the ace definition and consistency things I've mentioned. I guess I neglected to mention them and shouldn't have, but yeah, if Abreu and others were part of the conversation for Kirby or Logan, I'd be all over that, but I would think a bat is easier to pick up for Seattle and that they'd prefer to keep their pitching advantage, because without that, they're nothing. I frankly doubt that they'd be interested in a Gilbert or Kirby deal headlined by Abreu but perhaps they would? It was just about the only match I could come up with for a potential impact SP trade that wouldn't involve any of the big 3. I'd be all over it if possible but yea it's probably a pipe dream. In terms of trades, I do wonder what the ChiSox would want for Crochet? If attainable without any of the big 3 prospects I might be interested in taking that bet that this year isn't a fluke. That's really all that's coming to mind for potential SP trades, maybe the Marlins would deal Alcantara but it'd be selling very low on him and the Sox would have to bet on him staying healthy too so I'm not sure I'd be very interested in that. Just brings me back to the thought, just spend the money. If it's a Burnes or Fried great but I'd also take Snell, Eovaldi, Flaherty etc. They need to add an SP that is legit, not to knock Giolito but they need to add an SP this offseason in a higher tier than Giolito was last year. |
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Post by keninten on Aug 10, 2024 1:55:56 GMT -5
Right now the Sox will be hoping to have Houck, Giolito, Bello, and Crawford for SP next year. Their depth would be Criswell, Priester, Fitts, and maybe Slaten. I`m coming around to just adding a 2 Manaea and Montas types. Use what`s left over for a BP that only has Hendriks, Whitlock, Winck, and Slaten in it. Plus the SP depth. Don`t like to spend in the BP but it`s the sore toe of the team. They don`t have any needs as big.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 10, 2024 6:26:54 GMT -5
The only realistic avenue for this to happen would be trade. I can’t see Henry green lighting a 6 year deal to Burnes. I can see the Sox signing multiple under the radar starters and looking at Lugo as an example of a guy who in the right environment could become a front line starter. Not saying Lugo is but he’s far exceeded expectations this year. Again we don’t know what Henry will or will not allow the Sox to spend. They were pretty frugal this year between FA and taking on money at the deadline. Will that be a continued trend? No clue. I would hope that even if they have a tighter budget next year that Bloom would be smart enough to use some of his assets to pry a guy like Crochet out of Chicago or maybe try to get Alcantra on the cheap out of Florida or take a chance on someone like Walker Buehler.
This is on top of the whole Giolito is back and ready to go message. He can’t be the only “addition”
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 10, 2024 7:43:22 GMT -5
This is actually pretty curious taking a deeper look
At this
Kenley, Martin, Pivetta, and O’Neil all falling off the books about $39 million falling off the books and all are relatively replaceable in an easy enough manner. Sale is completely off too I believe?
Technically we have
Houck
Crawford
Giolito
Bello
Whitlock
I don’t really see this though as I think Whitlock should and will make a permanent move to the bullpen
Fried is the safe big sign (we as safe as they can get relatively speaking), but they are definitely going to keep in mind that they want to extend Houck
Story is untraceable. I think Breslow should and will try to trade Yoshida as that is a very suboptimal use of $18MM especially in this team
If they do that early I can definitely see them going after Fried aggressively.
Also somewhat nice now that we are past this first year almost is we will probably have Giolito in 2026 at $14 million (and we hold that option)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 10, 2024 8:29:36 GMT -5
The only realistic avenue for this to happen would be trade. I can’t see Henry green lighting a 6 year deal to Burnes. I can see the Sox signing multiple under the radar starters and looking at Lugo as an example of a guy who in the right environment could become a front line starter. Not saying Lugo is but he’s far exceeded expectations this year. Again we don’t know what Henry will or will not allow the Sox to spend. They were pretty frugal this year between FA and taking on money at the deadline. Will that be a continued trend? No clue. I would hope that even if they have a tighter budget next year that Bloom would be smart enough to use some of his assets to pry a guy like Crochet out of Chicago or maybe try to get Alcantra on the cheap out of Florida or take a chance on someone like Walker Buehler. This is on top of the whole Giolito is back and ready to go message. He can’t be the only “addition” Bloom? |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 10, 2024 8:45:51 GMT -5
They need to spend on pitching, proven pitching, not gamble on if this guy scraps his four seamer, adds a cutter stuff, etc.
I know that middle relief is more variable but they need to also find another Chris Martin (or the original) and sign another Mike Timlin type, a free agent signing that they did 21 years ago of a proven guy that would give them 5 solid seasons.
They have guys coming off the books. There's no reason why they must stay at the luxury tax limit other than to generate a heftier profit margin.
If they needed to 'raise" more money than maybe they pay down half of Story's and/or Yoshida's contract(s) in a trade.
For other teams Yoshida, who can hit, isnt necessarily an albatross at 9 million, nor is Story, at 13 million if he stays healthy.
But that would be 22 million saved if they needed to reshape that money for something else, whether it's one of them or both.
I think that if they cant get Burnes or even Fried, they should be able to make a good offer to try to entice Eovaldi back.
I figure theyll be letting Kenley go and their plan is probably restore Hendriks to his closing role. Dumping 16 million should open them up to be able to finance most of 2 good solid relievers with track records to set up.
I know in a perfect world you dont spend on past performance and you invest in a young up and coming guy that you think is about to pop, which is a lot easier said than done and is fraught with risk, too, if you get it wrong or if the guy gets hurt and you've spent major prospect currency.
I think the Sox have two major advantages, 1) they have an excellent system of impactful regulars coming up, and 2) enough money to buy pitching as offense isnt anywhere near as big a need and it would allow them to keep most of advantage #1, instead of clearing it out and hoping you're right about Crochet or whoever translating into a long term ace.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Aug 10, 2024 9:11:07 GMT -5
If you believe that the Red Sox were serious suitors for Yamamoto - supposedly offering him $300+ million - then the org still has the risk tolerance for spending significant resources to acquire pitching if they think the pitcher is worth it. So that definitely leaves the door open for something big. I don't know what pitchers there are out there though who match Yamamoto's age/skill and who are available. I think Burnes and Fried are too old for the Red Sox to be willing to go after them hard.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 10, 2024 9:54:52 GMT -5
I thought of another potential avenue that involves FA. They could theoretically sign adames to play SS who should be cheaper than signing burnes and that would free up Mayer in a deal to a rebuilding team for front of the line pitching.
Not my preference but it's probably an option that allows them to both use their financial flexibility and acquire a front of the line starter without paying the dreaded FA pitching price.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 11, 2024 13:27:13 GMT -5
The only realistic avenue for this to happen would be trade. I can’t see Henry green lighting a 6 year deal to Burnes. I can see the Sox signing multiple under the radar starters and looking at Lugo as an example of a guy who in the right environment could become a front line starter. Not saying Lugo is but he’s far exceeded expectations this year. Again we don’t know what Henry will or will not allow the Sox to spend. They were pretty frugal this year between FA and taking on money at the deadline. Will that be a continued trend? No clue. I would hope that even if they have a tighter budget next year that Bloom would be smart enough to use some of his assets to pry a guy like Crochet out of Chicago or maybe try to get Alcantra on the cheap out of Florida or take a chance on someone like Walker Buehler. This is on top of the whole Giolito is back and ready to go message. He can’t be the only “addition” Bloom? Slip of mind. Point still stands they aren’t going to spend on a big time talent because the risk might not be worth the reward. Trade market is the most realistic option. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 11, 2024 13:38:09 GMT -5
Slip of mind. Point still stands they aren’t going to spend on a big time talent because the risk might not be worth the reward. Trade market is the most realistic option. There's plenty of risk involved with trading top prospects for a pitcher, too. |
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,870
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Post by asm18 on Aug 11, 2024 20:17:15 GMT -5
It’s funny that we spent all winter being like, “Let’s get 1-2 starters that can slot in front of Bello, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, etc.” And we are going to do the exact same thing again this winter.
Can’t wait to spend 4 months dreaming on Corbin Burnes or Garrett Crochet only to end up with like Walker Buelher on a 1 year deal with a player option and some AAA depth
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 11, 2024 20:42:29 GMT -5
It’s funny that we spent all winter being like, “Let’s get 1-2 starters that can slot in front of Bello, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, etc.” And we are going to do the exact same thing again this winter. Can’t wait to spend 4 months dreaming on Corbin Burnes or Garrett Crochet only to end up with like Walker Buelher on a 1 year deal with a player option and some AAA depth Sign me up for Buelher on that deal. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 11, 2024 21:41:52 GMT -5
I thought of another potential avenue that involves FA. They could theoretically sign adames to play SS who should be cheaper than signing burnes and that would free up Mayer in a deal to a rebuilding team for front of the line pitching. Not my preference but it's probably an option that allows them to both use their financial flexibility and acquire a front of the line starter without paying the dreaded FA pitching price. If Story is healthy, do you really need Adames? And would you just be robbing Trevor to pay Willy if you tried to move Story? I like the creative thinking though... |
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Post by saltalamacchia4mvp on Aug 12, 2024 0:36:54 GMT -5
I’d call up Seattle in the offseason and try and make a trade for either George Kirby or Gilbert. My offer would be Triston Casas and Wilyer Abreu for one of those two starters.
The Mariners get two guys they can slide into their lineup right away and the Red Sox get a top of the rotation starter which they desperately need.
And to replace Casas I would go into free agency and sign Pete Alonso. He would add right handed pop and help balance out the lineup with all the lefties.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 12, 2024 5:34:55 GMT -5
I thought of another potential avenue that involves FA. They could theoretically sign adames to play SS who should be cheaper than signing burnes and that would free up Mayer in a deal to a rebuilding team for front of the line pitching. Not my preference but it's probably an option that allows them to both use their financial flexibility and acquire a front of the line starter without paying the dreaded FA pitching price. If Story is healthy, do you really need Adames? And would you just be robbing Trevor to pay Willy if you tried to move Story? I like the creative thinking though... Play story at 2nd. He's done it before. Like I said not my preference but it also would help solve the LHH issues a bit too. Was just a thought. |
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 12, 2024 5:50:06 GMT -5
Slip of mind. Point still stands they aren’t going to spend on a big time talent because the risk might not be worth the reward. Trade market is the most realistic option. There's plenty of risk involved with trading top prospects for a pitcher, too. 100% but that’s also the only realistic avenue right now to add a top flight starter. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 12, 2024 7:21:04 GMT -5
There's plenty of risk involved with trading top prospects for a pitcher, too. 100% but that’s also the only realistic avenue right now to add a top flight starter. I dont see it as the only realistic option. The Sox are going to have to spend money and surpass the luxury tax limit at some point if they truly expect to win. Right now their goal is to compete to be 1 of 6 teams to make the post season and hope to catch lightning in a bottle during the post season and so far that route has lead to them missing the playoffs 3 times in 4 years and they're in jeopardy of making it 4 out of 5. Yes, they have an incredible stream of positional talent coming up in the next year or so, but very little of that talent that will impact them is pitching. I think at some point they have to aim for the division and to be in the mix for top 1 or 2 seed. They were that caliber of team when they went over the luxury tax and spent money to secure top talent. They dont even really need to spend their money on position players which cuts down half the field and the guys they have other than Devers are very cheap, so they should have plenty of money to spend. If you're telling me they wont spend it, I can understand why you feel that way. I wouldn't bet my life they do either, but between Burnes, Fried, or Eovaldi, the Sox need to pick up 1 of them and they need to spend to improve the pen.i think this offseason should be the offseason they finally are one of the top spending teams. If not they're always going to run short of pitching after the all star break. This offseason it was we're not going to bring anybody of significance in other than Giolito who ironically had no suitors willing to pay anything near what he was offered by the Sox and they trade Sale so it wasnt really addition. The attitude seemed to be that they hired new pitching gurus who were going to work miracles with what they had, no other additions really needed. This we'll outsmart everybody else attitude has been there with the Sox the past 5 years and hasn't served them well. Many pundits thought the Sox were short in the pitching dept but looked foolish when Bailey and company was creating a pitching masterpiece in April and May but now the pundits are looking more prescient these days as the Sox pitching depth has been questionable. Yes, houck and for awhile Crawford has emerged and Criswell has been useful depth but Bello has not progressed nor has Pivetta turned into the top notch talent that he flashes for stretches. Bullpen options like Weissert and Campbell have shriveled while Slaten has panned out. This isnt to say that Bailey and company have failed, but rather they shouldn't have to be put in a position of being saviors and they should be given better talent to work with. If the Sox miss the playoffs yet again I would hope that would make them act with more urgency to improve the pitching but not at the expense of their greatest asset, their cheap emerging core of talent on the way up. |
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Post by rkarp on Aug 12, 2024 7:34:52 GMT -5
I am still of the opinion, pending cost, that Pivetta can be an asset here, either as a SP or a RP.
the team knows him better than any other team, and they have received some very good innings from him much of the season, save a few games recently (fatigue?)
a QO for sure, I am very willing for a longer deal if it can be agreed
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,870
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Post by asm18 on Aug 12, 2024 7:39:13 GMT -5
Just by going by fWAR for simplicity’s sake, but here are the best starting pitcher acquisitions over the off-season this year (so far). Chris Sale - ATL - trade & extension Tyler Glasnow - LA - trade & extension Dylan Cease - SD - trade Seth Lugo - KC - free agent Sonny Gray - STL - free agent Corbin Burnes - BAL - trade Jack Flaherty - DET - free agent (traded to LA) Erick Fedde - CWS - free agent (traded to STL) Shota Imanaga - CHC - free agent Michael King - SD - trade Reynaldo Lopez - ATL - free agent All of in the top 30 of fWAR. A couple notable names missing from this list we talked about all off-season 🤷♂️ (Although in fairness Yamamoto was excellent before getting hurt and Snell has been a beast after missing most of the 1st half.) www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0 |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 12, 2024 8:54:40 GMT -5
I’d call up Seattle in the offseason and try and make a trade for either George Kirby or Gilbert. My offer would be Triston Casas and Wilyer Abreu for one of those two starters. The Mariners get two guys they can slide into their lineup right away and the Red Sox get a top of the rotation starter which they desperately need. And to replace Casas I would go into free agency and sign Pete Alonso. He would add right handed pop and help balance out the lineup with all the lefties. I commend you for acknowledging the kind of painful cost it would take to actually land one of those pitchers (though I'm still doubtful Seattle would actually want to trade them). But Alonso is going to project for about 2 WAR as a 30 year old in the first year of whatever contract he signs and he is looking for $200 million and I would be disinclined to so much as answer Boras' call on him this offseason. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 12, 2024 9:02:51 GMT -5
I would rather have Casas and Abreu making peanuts for the next 4 seasons and pay big bucks for Fried or Burnes than paying big bucks for Alonso + trading that package for Gilbert or Kirby.
I know it's a simplistic way of looking at it but I think it's fair to think that Casas/Abreu would put up equal or more WAR than Alonso + Gilbert/Kirby for a portion of the price.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 12, 2024 9:11:29 GMT -5
Not popular opinion at all but I can still see Duran being traded for a frontline SP or part of the package
For a lot of reasons here. I think Story really could get moved to LF to fit Mayer at SS. Story’s contract is going no where. That leaves CF for Rafaela, RF for Abreu/Anthony with Refsnyder on Bench
I wouldn’t bet on it, but it would not surprise me to see him traded for an SP
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 12, 2024 9:12:39 GMT -5
Let's keep this away from specific trade proposals (and rebuttals). There's a place for that, and it's not this thread.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 12, 2024 13:58:30 GMT -5
I am still of the opinion, pending cost, that Pivetta can be an asset here, either as a SP or a RP. the team knows him better than any other team, and they have received some very good innings from him much of the season, save a few games recently (fatigue?) a QO for sure, I am very willing for a longer deal if it can be agreed I am fully expecting Pivetta to be long gone and hard to find once November rolls around. There will surely be at least one team to offer him 2-3 years at $15m AAV to be a SP and that team will not yo-yo him between the rotation and bullpen the way the Sox have. I'll be very surprised if he signs with BOS, even if their offer is competitive. |
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