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Will the Red Sox add a front line starter for 2025?
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Post by kwodes on Aug 16, 2024 10:40:37 GMT -5
We are so much in agreement on this. We're speaking the same language. I know Crochet is the guy everybody will be looking at and I suspect that one of Anthony or Campbell or less likely Mayer or Teel would go in a deal for him, along with either Sandlin or Arias, plus other, and I suspect that if the Sox dont use their wallets this is the steep direction theyd go in. Like you I'd rather keep these guys and sign one of Burnes, Fried or Eovaldi. I'm assuming Roki Sasaki isnt coming over yet and if he were he's likely be earmarked for LA. I'd really hate to gamble talent on Crochet in this era of everybody is soon destined for TJS as soon as they hit 150 innings for a season or two. No thanks. Rather they risk money than talent. I'm not as worried about back end financial contractual efficiency. I ultimately think it would be more costly to replace the talent lost. And I truly believe that all four of Anthony (I like Abreu but ultimately I much prefer his future to Abreu, who is likely a good platoon player with value), Teel, Mayer, and Campbell (and eventually Montgomery) could all truly impact the Sox for a long time, and I also believe all 5 including Montgomery will be needed. I dont regard them as surplus (I dont see the Sox extending Duran when its time for example and I dont think theyd need to. If it falls to having to get Crochet I think I'd try to craft a deal around Grissom, Arias, Bleis, and Sandlin, 3 of those 4 guys. I'd have trouble believing that if the White Sox require a pitcher back it would be anybody but Sandlin, but if the Sox think that highly of Sandlin and it took him and highly regarded others to get Crochet, then why do it? Frankly I dont think the ChiSox would deal Crochet without getting one of the Big 3 or Campbell or even Montgomery. I know I probably waded too deeply into trade proposals which wasnt my intent, so I'll stop there, but just to talk about how steep a price theyd be paying to invest in a guy with a limited track record of starter success who's demanding a big contract or would not aid his teammates toward the quest of a championship. I'd rather see the Sox open their wallets instead. Get the proven guy instead and let's all reap the rewards of a fruitful farm system producing the most exciting batch of prospects in about a decade. Same as you, I don't want to wade into what the fringe of a trade proposal. That being said if somehow Crochet could be acquired without giving up any of I'll just start calling them the big 4 I think I would be okay with taking that gamble on him, within reason anyway. If they did pull of a trade for someone like Crochet I would still look for them to add a guy like Eovaldi on top of it since the big plus of going for Crochet vs shelling out 40M to Burnes/Fried is that Crochet makes peanuts so they would still have a lot of payroll flexibility. I'd much rather sign Flaherty to (estimated) 1/4 the cost and Scherzer to a 1 yr deal. 6 man rotation with Flaherty, Scherzer, Houck, Kutter, Bello, Giolito. Use the long term $$ to extend the big 3 or sign Soto. Could even trade Casas for a young, controllable ace, and trade for (and extend) Vladdy.
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Aug 16, 2024 15:52:45 GMT -5
Same as you, I don't want to wade into what the fringe of a trade proposal. That being said if somehow Crochet could be acquired without giving up any of I'll just start calling them the big 4 I think I would be okay with taking that gamble on him, within reason anyway. If they did pull of a trade for someone like Crochet I would still look for them to add a guy like Eovaldi on top of it since the big plus of going for Crochet vs shelling out 40M to Burnes/Fried is that Crochet makes peanuts so they would still have a lot of payroll flexibility. I'd much rather sign Flaherty to (estimated) 1/4 the cost and Scherzer to a 1 yr deal. 6 man rotation with Flaherty, Scherzer, Houck, Kutter, Bello, Giolito. Use the long term $$ to extend the big 3 or sign Soto. Could even trade Casas for a young, controllable ace, and trade for (and extend) Vladdy. I don't mind Flaherty but it would hard to trust him as a reliable #1 starter. Far too much inconsistency in terms of performance and durability. With where the roster is at, they will very much be in position to pay for a guy like Burnes who unquestionably fills a direct need. This is not the time to look for cheaper alternatives who might fill the team's needs. If they are not going to sign Burnes, then the path should be to spend the money on Soto and trade for a starter. Skubal would be the #1 option if going the trade route. Don't mind Luis Castillo as another option. Scherzer I would not touch with a 10ft pole. Now is the time to pay for real needle movers.
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keninten
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Post by keninten on Aug 16, 2024 16:26:29 GMT -5
It`s not what we pay for Burnes now. It`s a few years down the road. I wouldn`t want him for more than 3 years, ideally 2, but that`s not going to happen.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 16, 2024 18:03:46 GMT -5
It`s not what we pay for Burnes now. It`s a few years down the road. I wouldn`t want him for more than 3 years, ideally 2, but that`s not going to happen. I get the sentiment and certainly opinions can vary as to how long he stays great or at least very good, but I think if it's all about efficiency and getting a Manny Ramirez like contract scenario where 90% of it is quite efficient, then one would rarely ever sign an upper echelon free agent. So to secure top talent you either trade top notch young talent or you wind up just signing second or third tier type talent and you never get that elite player unless you luck out. With somebody like Burnes, you have to measure how many years of greatness and being good versus the years you're really overpaying to determine if its worth it, but you can rarely expect that these type if contracts wont have some sort of albatross factor. It's kind of built in but if it's not accepted as being part of the cost of doing business then theyd never sign a top tier talent. I think at some point you do your best guess and you take your chances. Second or third tier free agents and bargain bin shopping can only go so far.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Aug 16, 2024 20:00:28 GMT -5
If he can't even beat us, why do we want Burnes anyway?? Grouchy Marx "I don't want to join any club that would take me as a member."
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 16, 2024 20:56:36 GMT -5
If he can't even beat us, why do we want Burnes anyway?? Grouchy Marx "I don't want to join any club that would take me as a member." We’ve tattooed a number of good RH pitchers. Wouldn’t hold that against him.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 16, 2024 22:25:42 GMT -5
If he can't even beat us, why do we want Burnes anyway?? Grouchy Marx "I don't want to join any club that would take me as a member." We’ve tattooed a number of good RH pitchers. Wouldn’t hold that against him. Yeah, bad outing but the body of work has been excellent. Even Pedro would have a rare stinker. Even the immortal Garrett Crochet has bad outings, lol.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 17, 2024 0:04:19 GMT -5
It`s not what we pay for Burnes now. It`s a few years down the road. I wouldn`t want him for more than 3 years, ideally 2, but that`s not going to happen. My crystal ball on Burnes says that he's likely to give BAL a (relative) hometown discount due to their stellar young core. Why wouldn't you want to pitch in front of (and to) those kids for the rest of your career? CB2 would have to offer a pretty Price-y long-term deal to get him out of there (recall that DD had to outbid STL by a lot to land Price). I think you're on the right track with a 2-3 year deal though. How about 2yr/$95m with a club option for 2027 contingent on missed playing time to injury? Enough for him (and Boras) to defer his long-term payday?
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 17, 2024 6:33:47 GMT -5
Any serious offer for Burnes starts with an offer around $300 million I think.
I don’t think higher AAV will do it, he’s going to be 30, and even if you pay him 10-15 more a year, if he gets hurt in those years or seriously declines, he’s missed his next payday and probably cost himself $300 million.
Most guys who sign those contract who are elite also have some kind of massive wart, like Blake Snell. Who was older and had a history of bad seasons inbetween Cy young campaigns. Burnes is younger and more consistent. He’s getting paid.
Unless he goes down at the end of this season, then the calculations change.
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Post by nonothing on Aug 17, 2024 8:00:52 GMT -5
The Burnes contract is going to be a terrible deal for whoever signs it. He will be the back half of age 30 pitching the first year of it, and his K/9 are already down (below 9 already) and his H/9 are up. His FIP is up. The AL East is tougher than the NL Central. He isn't going to be a Gerrit Cole type impact pitcher. His numbers don't support it. I would stay away from Burnes. If BAL wants to sign him, that's fine with me. Let them have the Price type contract to deal with for most of a decade.
Fried is LH, will get signed like the 31 yo pitcher he will be next yr and has CAA vs Boras. If you can get him for 6 yrs, He is the guys to get. Maybe you go 7 because LHP at that level are scarce (which was what happened with Price). Fried seems a better bet to age better because he limits hard contact better. But more importantly, he fills the more rare need of top of rotation LHSP, and he will be paid to be a mature leader on a team with rising young guys. I think he gets less money than Burnes and fits better.
Sasaki would be great. If I were him, I would look for a great young team, not the Dodgers. The Sox or BAL are probably best team fits, though he probably signs with neither.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 17, 2024 8:19:00 GMT -5
Any serious offer for Burnes starts with an offer around $300 million I think. I don’t think higher AAV will do it, he’s going to be 30, and even if you pay him 10-15 more a year, if he gets hurt in those years or seriously declines, he’s missed his next payday and probably cost himself $300 million. Most guys who sign those contract who are elite also have some kind of massive wart, like Blake Snell. Who was older and had a history of bad seasons inbetween Cy young campaigns. Burnes is younger and more consistent. He’s getting paid. Unless he goes down at the end of this season, then the calculations change. I'll go out on a limb and predict he gets under $200 million.
- His numbers are very good, not unbelievable, the last two seasons; peripheral stats are all trending downwards. - He'll be 30. The only pitcher who got more than $200 million, let alone $300 million, in the last few years was 25. - Snell and Montgomery went the "short-term/high AAV" route last year but their AAVs weren't even that high - $30 million and $25 million respectively. I don't think Burnes is a better pitcher than Snell at this point, and while Snell had more of an injury concern I don't see Burnes exceeding Snell's AAV while also being signed to a super long-term contract, which is what it would take to get above $300 million. - Just looking at age and numbers, I think Aaron Nola is a really good comp. He got 7/172.
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 17, 2024 8:21:05 GMT -5
I can’t see Burnes getting $300M. I also can’t see Boston sitting out the SP FA class completely.
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Post by jdb on Aug 17, 2024 8:23:21 GMT -5
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Post by patford on Aug 17, 2024 8:30:23 GMT -5
It`s not what we pay for Burnes now. It`s a few years down the road. I wouldn`t want him for more than 3 years, ideally 2, but that`s not going to happen. My crystal ball on Burnes says that he's likely to give BAL a (relative) hometown discount due to their stellar young core. Why wouldn't you want to pitch in front of (and to) those kids for the rest of your career? CB2 would have to offer a pretty Price-y long-term deal to get him out of there (recall that DD had to outbid STL by a lot to land Price). I think you're on the right track with a 2-3 year deal though. How about 2yr/$95m with a club option for 2027 contingent on missed playing time to injury? Enough for him (and Boras) to defer his long-term payday? This is going to be perhaps the one chance Burnes has for a big payday. He is on record being unhappy with the deal offered by the Brewers, signed a one year deal and was then traded to the Orioles. Burnes was born and raised in California so if he wants to go home it would more likely be the Dodgers, Padres or Giants than Baltimore. He will turn 30 in October and has the build and durability which suggest he will continue to pitch well into his later thirties. My guess is he's going to get at least five years from someone and at an average of something like 40 million a year. Compare to Cole who at age 29 signed for 9 years at 36 million a year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 17, 2024 9:06:15 GMT -5
I think Burnes has a reasonable shot at 300 million, as in 8 years @ 37.5 million per year.
If Sasaki isnt being posted, he is clearly the best combination of being the best pitcher and the most durable.
Durability does matter. Sure, he could go Giolito at any minute, but so far so good.
He will not likely be taking a hometown discount. He will be getting paid.
At some point whatever deal he signs will likely be an albatross, but the question is how many good to great years will you get from him and how many seasons does that help them go to and/or win the LCS or World Series? You play to win championships, not to have the most statistically efficient payrolls.
I'm not saying be irresponsible with the payroll, but I'm saying if you have financial advantages use it.
Some team will. Unless of course, Bora$ absolutely has to Bora$ and makes demands so ridiculous (like 40 million plus per year long term) that Burnes is still unsigned come spring training, and doesnt get signed until nearly April, and then we can watch how having no spring training screws with his health and productivity. Don't know if that's the path Burnes will permit Bora$ to go, where Bora$ overplays his hand.
But in normal circumstances I would anticipate that the market yields around 300 million for him. Unless you see a better free agent up ahead (Sasaki,but is he LA bound?) Or are willing to trade guys who could become cheap superstars for a young pitcher of a limited record of track success who will only be under control for about 2 or 3 years and then will want their 300 million if they dont get hurt or flop, then I'd say give Burnes his money unless Bora$ pulls the crap that he is prone to do.
My fallback position would be Fried or Eovaldi.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 17, 2024 9:37:25 GMT -5
Okay, gonna lean into my hot take here...
Player A, 2022-23: 3.34 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 3.73 xFIP, 7.95 K/9, 2.06 BB/9 Player B, 2023-24: 3.26 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 3.70 xFIP, 8.91 K/9, 2.69 BB/9
Player A was 10 months older at the comparable point. Still, very similar, yes?
Player A is Jordan Montgomery. Player B is Corbin Burnes.
As so often happens, I think a lot of people have sort of imprinted on what the player was 3 years ago rather than looking at what he is now. Burnes had one sublime season, but it was back in 2021. He's still very good, but he's been trending down since then.
And for what it's worth, Zips projects 3.8 WAR in 2025 and 3.5 in 2026. Extrapolating from that you'd be generous to expect 20 WAR from him over 8 years. That's better than Montgomery's projections for the coming two years going into this season (3.2 and 2.7) but significantly worse than Nola's (4.9 and 4.1).
I would expect Burnes to get a Nola-ish contract, 7/175 or so. (It'll be an interesting test for Boras, who hasn't been willing to accept a good deal for his clients in recent years; he either gets a great deal or a terrible one.)
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 17, 2024 10:17:19 GMT -5
Am I the only one that wants Fried?
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Post by bettsonmookie on Aug 17, 2024 10:27:02 GMT -5
Seeing how our LHH core handled Burnes last night, I am quite alright with the Orioles investing huge money into him anchoring their rotation for the next 6+ years.
We matchup with him well both in the short and long term.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 17, 2024 10:27:13 GMT -5
Am I the only one that wants Fried? Read the comments on this page to find out!
I'd be happy with Fried if it's on a reasonable contract. I'm having a Montgomery redux experience with Burnes: the more I look at the numbers the warier I get.
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Post by jbuttah on Aug 17, 2024 10:51:48 GMT -5
I'm gonna go out on a short limb and say they're not going to sign a pitcher to a >3 year, >30mm aav contract. They will probably look for another Giolito type to shore up the back-end of the rotation and count on Houck/Bello/Crawford to take another step forward. With Giolito back healthy and Fitts, Priester, Sandlin as potential call-ups, I wouldn't necessarily disagree with this.
I think a trade for solid SP pitcher has a much greater chance of happening than a FA signing, and I think Duran might be the major piece being offered. I wouldn't necessarily disagree with this either.
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Post by kwodes on Aug 17, 2024 11:00:17 GMT -5
I'm gonna go out on a short limb and say they're not going to sign a pitcher to a >3 year, >30mm aav contract. They will probably look for another Giolito type to shore up the back-end of the rotation and count on Houck/Bello/Crawford to take another step forward. With Giolito back healthy and Fitts, Priester, Sandlin as potential call-ups, I wouldn't necessarily disagree with this. I think a trade for solid SP pitcher has a much greater chance of happening than a FA signing, and I think Duran might be the major piece being offered. I wouldn't necessarily disagree with this either. I agree with this. I think they'll go the trade route for the big pitching acquisition. Marlins are a good fit. They'll have Eury, Alcantara, Luzardo, Weathers, Garrett, Mayer, Cabrera, Sixto. You can probably offer on of our OFers for a pitcher 1-for-1.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 17, 2024 11:20:55 GMT -5
Am I the only one that wants Fried? Read the comments on this page to find out!
I'd be happy with Fried if it's on a reasonable contract. I'm having a Montgomery redux experience with Burnes: the more I look at the numbers the warier I get.
Feel fried is the safer bet. Quality k rates with elite gb rates and probably cheaper than Burnes I’d be extremely happy with Fried ahead of Houck and Crawford
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 17, 2024 11:23:47 GMT -5
Snell not having a QO attached moving forward is interesting. Not the biggest fan of him on this forum but his top end talent is undeniable.
Walker B on a 1 year flier is also very appealing to me. Not sure he would qualify as a “front line” starter at this point.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Aug 17, 2024 11:38:07 GMT -5
Snell not having a QO attached moving forward is interesting. Not the biggest fan of him on this forum but his top end talent is undeniable. Walker B on a 1 year flier is also very appealing to me. Not sure he would qualify as a “front line” starter at this point. Agreed on both fronts. I would also love Shane Bieber on a Paxton/Hendriks style contract.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 17, 2024 12:03:33 GMT -5
No 30 year old pitcher is getting 300 million
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