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8/12-8/14 Red Sox vs. Rangers Series Thread
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 14, 2024 10:49:37 GMT -5
If the comparison is to Cowser, I say no contest, Ceddanne hands down should win. The impact he has made in the field playing SS and close to elite CF trumps a LF if the offensive #'s are relatively close. Cedanne's 109 runs produced ( Run + RBI - HR) to Cowsers 91 is a big difference maker for me as well. Comparing to Abreu, Ceddanne plays every day while Abreu has been primarily a platoon player. The defense favors Ceddanne as well, although Abreu's RF Fenway defense makes it closer. Aren't we blessed to have both of these guys !!!! Who else is there ? Qualified players with higher WAR than Rafaela (1.0): Cowser (3.0) Wells (2.7) Gil (2.4) Abreu (2.3) Miller (2.0) Schuemann (1.9) Smith (1.9) Woods Richardson (1.8) Gaddis (1.6) Hamilton (1.4) Arrighetti (1.3) Slaten (1.3) Criswell (1.2) Keith (1.2) Horwitz (1.1) Personally I'd vote for Cowser, Wells, Gil, Abreu, and Miller certainly over Rafaela and I'd have to look more deeply at the other guys. I'd probably agree if the season ended today. Rafaela is a really tough guy to value, though, because he would have a lot more WAR if he had played CF all year (8 DRS, 4 OAA so far in CF, -7 DRS, -9 OAA so far at SS; imagine those CF numbers over a full year's worth of innings!). Yet, despite the big hit to his WAR from playing SS, you could argue that he's been more valuable than an elite CF who can only play CF, because he was able to help plug a major roster hole at SS while keeping the team's best bats in the lineup. Is ROY supposed to be about value to the team or just individual stats without considering context?
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Post by puzzler on Aug 14, 2024 10:50:00 GMT -5
Theyd be in much bigger trouble if Rafaela went down with an injury than if Abreu went down. I dont think "the numbers" encapsulate everything all the time. You cant always be a subservient to them, especially when some of them are subjective. I'm not being "subservient" to the numbers; that's the thing I was accusing O'Brien of doing, though his numbers are especially dumb ones. What I'm doing is watching the games and seeing Abreu doing a ton of damage on offense and playing great defense in RF and running the bases really well. Which the numbers confirm. And I don't even buy the premise that Rafaela is the more indispensible player. They have Duran for CF and they have Romy/Hamilton/Valdez/Sogard for the middle infield, whereas they don't have anyone else who can play a really solid RF.
Positional versatility has some value that the numbers don't capture, it's true; but that's pretty well mitigated by the fact that he's been a dreadful defensive shortstop.
I'm being pro-Abreu here, not anti-Rafaela. See the Rafaela thread for what I currently think of him as a player. It just seems obvious to me that Abreu is having the better season.
ADD: Maybe the disconnection is that others are thinking about this in terms of the kind of player Rafaela is now, vs. the kind of overall season he has had? I would be a lot more open to the case that "Rafaela is the best player among rookies in August 2024" as opposed to "Rafaela is having the best season among all rookies."
Abreu has 48 plate appearances against lefties the entire season. So he can't do the thing, so he doesn't have to. Posting every day matters when you're comparing season quality. You've basically just given him a pass for not being able to play 30% of a season. Meanwhile, you're holding it against the other player; Rafaela, for playing every single day and splitting his time at two of the toughest positions in baseball. That's a ridiculous stance.
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Post by rhswanzey on Aug 14, 2024 11:07:09 GMT -5
Qualified players with higher WAR than Rafaela (1.0): Cowser (3.0) Wells (2.7) Gil (2.4) Abreu (2.3) Miller (2.0) Schuemann (1.9) Smith (1.9) Woods Richardson (1.8) Gaddis (1.6) Hamilton (1.4) Arrighetti (1.3) Slaten (1.3) Criswell (1.2) Keith (1.2) Horwitz (1.1) Personally I'd vote for Cowser, Wells, Gil, Abreu, and Miller certainly over Rafaela and I'd have to look more deeply at the other guys. Well that is sure a long list and the reason why I do not concern myself with WAR. Any metric that values Hamilton over Rafaela is very much flawed. WAR has utility - addresses an array of problems associated with comparing guys playing different positions, in different home ballparks, in different eras, etc. - but there’s too much to the game to condense everything into one number and leave it at that. Each of us is free to make choices somewhere along a spectrum of how valuable or not valuable we find WAR to be: it’s not a binary choice. The difference in how defensive value is calculated, as well as expected (Fangraphs) vs actual (B-R) pitching outcomes, can cause significant variance in WAR and difference in WAR between players. For example, that gap closes at bWAR (Hamilton 2.2, Rafaela 2.1), while Criswell “loses” half his value (1.2 —> .6). The Wong/framing discussion above also illustrates this.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 14, 2024 11:21:04 GMT -5
Qualified players with higher WAR than Rafaela (1.0): Cowser (3.0) Wells (2.7) Gil (2.4) Abreu (2.3) Miller (2.0) Schuemann (1.9) Smith (1.9) Woods Richardson (1.8) Gaddis (1.6) Hamilton (1.4) Arrighetti (1.3) Slaten (1.3) Criswell (1.2) Keith (1.2) Horwitz (1.1) Personally I'd vote for Cowser, Wells, Gil, Abreu, and Miller certainly over Rafaela and I'd have to look more deeply at the other guys. Well that is sure a long list and the reason why I do not concern myself with WAR. Any metric that values Hamilton over Rafaela is very much flawed. See, I just don't have these intuitions that other people have here. Hamilton and Rafaela have almost identical wRC+'s but Hamilton's infield defense has been a lot better and he's been much better on the basepaths so it makes total sense to me that he has a higher WAR total.
Incidentally, Hamilton's defensive numbers at 2B have actually been well above average - better, on a rate basis, than Rafaela's in CF - while also being better at SS; so if we want to play the "he's taking a bullet for the team by playing out of position at SS" card then that actually reflects better on Hamilton than Rafaela
I'm not being "subservient" to the numbers; that's the thing I was accusing O'Brien of doing, though his numbers are especially dumb ones. What I'm doing is watching the games and seeing Abreu doing a ton of damage on offense and playing great defense in RF and running the bases really well. Which the numbers confirm. And I don't even buy the premise that Rafaela is the more indispensible player. They have Duran for CF and they have Romy/Hamilton/Valdez/Sogard for the middle infield, whereas they don't have anyone else who can play a really solid RF.
Positional versatility has some value that the numbers don't capture, it's true; but that's pretty well mitigated by the fact that he's been a dreadful defensive shortstop.
I'm being pro-Abreu here, not anti-Rafaela. See the Rafaela thread for what I currently think of him as a player. It just seems obvious to me that Abreu is having the better season.
ADD: Maybe the disconnection is that others are thinking about this in terms of the kind of player Rafaela is now, vs. the kind of overall season he has had? I would be a lot more open to the case that "Rafaela is the best player among rookies in August 2024" as opposed to "Rafaela is having the best season among all rookies."
Abreu has 48 plate appearances against lefties the entire season. So he can't do the thing, so he doesn't have to. Posting every day matters when you're comparing season quality. You've basically just given him a pass for not being able to play 30% of a season. Meanwhile, you're holding it against the other player; Rafaela, for playing every single day and splitting his time at two of the toughest positions in baseball. That's a ridiculous stance.Sorry but I am just not taking a ridiculous stance here. It is not worthy of ridicule to say that the player who has the much better numbers and the much larger WAR total has actually had the better season.
I totally acknowledge the points about positional versatility and the platoon thing. I don't think they make up for that large of a gap in actual production.
And at the end of the day, isn't there something to be said for judging these players for awards purposes on how they've actually performed, rather than making accommodations for how they might've done if they'd been used optimally? By that standard Rafaela has been a below average player on both offense and defense, which cannot be said of several other ROY candidates.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 14, 2024 11:27:41 GMT -5
Well that is sure a long list and the reason why I do not concern myself with WAR. Any metric that values Hamilton over Rafaela is very much flawed. WAR has utility - addresses an array of problems associated with comparing guys playing different positions, in different home ballparks, in different eras, etc. - but there’s too much to the game to condense everything into one number and leave it at that. Each of us is free to make choices somewhere along a spectrum of how valuable or not valuable we find WAR to be: it’s not a binary choice. The difference in how defensive value is calculated, as well as expected (Fangraphs) vs actual (B-R) pitching outcomes, can cause significant variance in WAR and difference in WAR between players. For example, that gap closes at bWAR (Hamilton 2.2, Rafaela 2.1), while Criswell “loses” half his value (1.2 —> .6). The Wong/framing discussion above also illustrates this. I do admittedly live in the past when it comes to metrics, but that is my comfort level and what I prefer. For my needs simpler approaches that enable me to make my own on the spot metric conclusions are best. I do however still trust my gut based on a lifetime of following baseball in terms of what I value in a ball player. Kudos to all of you who who can go to Fangraphs and other sites and not get overwhelmed. That said, regardless of who gets ROY, I'm not trading Ceddanne straight up for Cowser.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Aug 14, 2024 11:32:52 GMT -5
Back to the subject of the game thread: let’s complete the sweep today and root for the Twins to beat the Royals so we gotta tie for the 3rd WC going into a huge series w/ the O’s.
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Post by puzzler on Aug 14, 2024 11:39:09 GMT -5
Well that is sure a long list and the reason why I do not concern myself with WAR. Any metric that values Hamilton over Rafaela is very much flawed. See, I just don't have these intuitions that other people have here. Hamilton and Rafaela have almost identical wRC+'s but Hamilton's infield defense has been a lot better and he's been much better on the basepaths so it makes total sense to me that he has a higher WAR total.
Incidentally, Hamilton's defensive numbers at 2B have actually been well above average - better, on a rate basis, than Rafaela's in CF - while also being better at SS; so if we want to play the "he's taking a bullet for the team by playing out of position at SS" card then that actually reflects better on Hamilton than Rafaela
Abreu has 48 plate appearances against lefties the entire season. So he can't do the thing, so he doesn't have to. Posting every day matters when you're comparing season quality. You've basically just given him a pass for not being able to play 30% of a season. Meanwhile, you're holding it against the other player; Rafaela, for playing every single day and splitting his time at two of the toughest positions in baseball. That's a ridiculous stance.Sorry but I am just not taking a ridiculous stance here. It is not worthy of ridicule to say that the player who has the much better numbers and the much larger WAR total has actually had the better season.
I totally acknowledge the points about positional versatility and the platoon thing. I don't think they make up for that large of a gap in actual production.
And at the end of the day, isn't there something to be said for judging these players for awards purposes on how they've actually performed, rather than making accommodations for how they might've done if they'd been used optimally? By that standard Rafaela has been a below average player on both offense and defense, which cannot be said of several other ROY candidates.
You're comparing one guy whose been used completely optimally against another who has not. I think that's your problem not mine. You claim to be watching the games, so you've seen how often Abreu doesn't start and how often he gets pinch hit for. But your overall conclusion comes back only to the numbers. Yes, that's ridiculous. 100 more at bats against lefties says Abreu is not the best rookie on the Red Sox. EDIT: I can't play everyday is not an argument for being a better player or having a better season.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,524
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Post by asm18 on Aug 14, 2024 11:39:40 GMT -5
Back to the subject of the game thread: let’s complete the sweep today and root for the Twins to beat the Royals so we gotta tie for the 3rd WC going into a huge series w/ the O’s. I don’t think Texas has a starter named yet - seems like it might Dane Dunning, who threw 28 pitches on Sunday
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Post by incandenza on Aug 14, 2024 11:44:51 GMT -5
See, I just don't have these intuitions that other people have here. Hamilton and Rafaela have almost identical wRC+'s but Hamilton's infield defense has been a lot better and he's been much better on the basepaths so it makes total sense to me that he has a higher WAR total.
Incidentally, Hamilton's defensive numbers at 2B have actually been well above average - better, on a rate basis, than Rafaela's in CF - while also being better at SS; so if we want to play the "he's taking a bullet for the team by playing out of position at SS" card then that actually reflects better on Hamilton than Rafaela
Sorry but I am just not taking a ridiculous stance here. It is not worthy of ridicule to say that the player who has the much better numbers and the much larger WAR total has actually had the better season.
I totally acknowledge the points about positional versatility and the platoon thing. I don't think they make up for that large of a gap in actual production.
And at the end of the day, isn't there something to be said for judging these players for awards purposes on how they've actually performed, rather than making accommodations for how they might've done if they'd been used optimally? By that standard Rafaela has been a below average player on both offense and defense, which cannot be said of several other ROY candidates.
You're comparing one guy whose been used completely optimally against another who has not. I think that's your problem not mine. You claim to be watching the games, so you've seen how often Abreu doesn't start and how often he gets pinch hit for. But your overall conclusion comes back only to the numbers. Yes, that's ridiculous. 100 more at bats against lefties says Abreu is not the best rookie on the Red Sox. EDIT: I can't play everyday is not an argument for being a better player or having a better season. We're reaching a basic reading comprehension limit here so I don't think there's anything more that can be said.
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briam
Veteran
Posts: 1,180
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Post by briam on Aug 14, 2024 12:40:57 GMT -5
Get the sweep today and then the next 7 will pretty much dictate the wild card race. If they can get through Baltimore and Houston without collapsing into dust, it’ll be a fun September.
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Post by rhswanzey on Aug 14, 2024 12:56:16 GMT -5
WAR has utility - addresses an array of problems associated with comparing guys playing different positions, in different home ballparks, in different eras, etc. - but there’s too much to the game to condense everything into one number and leave it at that. Each of us is free to make choices somewhere along a spectrum of how valuable or not valuable we find WAR to be: it’s not a binary choice. The difference in how defensive value is calculated, as well as expected (Fangraphs) vs actual (B-R) pitching outcomes, can cause significant variance in WAR and difference in WAR between players. For example, that gap closes at bWAR (Hamilton 2.2, Rafaela 2.1), while Criswell “loses” half his value (1.2 —> .6). The Wong/framing discussion above also illustrates this. I do admittedly live in the past when it comes to metrics, but that is my comfort level and what I prefer. For my needs simpler approaches that enable me to make my own on the spot metric conclusions are best. I do however still trust my gut based on a lifetime of following baseball in terms of what I value in a ball player. Kudos to all of you who who can go to Fangraphs and other sites and not get overwhelmed. That said, regardless of who gets ROY, I'm not trading Ceddanne straight up for Cowser. I’ve been reading it with some regularity since 2002 but I perused a few of the early ‘80s Bill James almanacs as a little kid before then. * the volume of information is overwhelming. It was then and it still is now * more information can be, but is not automatically, better * there’s no wrong way to watch or understand baseball (less is more!) You’re good!
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Aug 14, 2024 12:57:41 GMT -5
Anyone else surprised that we don’t have a single player who has 45 plate appearances in high leverage situations this year?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,646
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Post by cdj on Aug 14, 2024 13:02:09 GMT -5
Anyone else surprised that we don’t have a single player who has 45 plate appearances in high leverage situations this year? I’m shocked, it feels like everybody has 80+ high leverage AB’s where they bat .190
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Aug 14, 2024 13:03:45 GMT -5
Anyone else surprised that we don’t have a single player who has 45 plate appearances in high leverage situations this year? I’m shocked, it feels like everybody has 80+ high leverage AB’s where they bat .190 It certainly feels that way. I’m mostly just shocked Devers and Duran aren’t at that number of plate appearances. Would definitely expect the list to look rough for most of the team, purely based on vibes
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 14, 2024 13:10:48 GMT -5
Adolis Garcia being the single least clutch player in baseball after hitting .323/.382/.726 over four playoff series en route to a championship is funny
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,524
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Post by asm18 on Aug 14, 2024 13:13:47 GMT -5
Per Chris Smith at MassLive:
Jarren Duran reinstated. Cam Booser to IL (elbow inflammation) Brennan Bernardino back Enmanuel Valdez optioned to Worcester
So Mickey Gasper is staying up? Wonder if that means Casas is returning imminently
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badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 473
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Post by badfishnbc on Aug 14, 2024 13:15:32 GMT -5
Booser elbow inflammation is not the droid I was looking for.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 14, 2024 13:18:36 GMT -5
Is it possible they they actually believe in Gasper and he's going to be on the 40 all offseason
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Post by cba82 on Aug 14, 2024 13:23:44 GMT -5
Per Chris Smith at MassLive: Jarren Duran reinstated. Cam Booser to IL (elbow inflammation) Brennan Bernardino back Enmanuel Valdez optioned to Worcester So Mickey Gasper is staying up? Wonder if that means Casas is returning imminently When does Tyler O’Neill return?
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 14, 2024 13:37:12 GMT -5
Per Chris Smith at MassLive: Jarren Duran reinstated. Cam Booser to IL (elbow inflammation) Brennan Bernardino back Enmanuel Valdez optioned to Worcester So Mickey Gasper is staying up? Wonder if that means Casas is returning imminently When does Tyler O’Neill return?
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Post by rhswanzey on Aug 14, 2024 13:43:38 GMT -5
Booser elbow inflammation is not the droid I was looking for. A guy who just threw six times in nine days has a barking elbow? Jeez, I’m shocked to hear it
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Aug 14, 2024 13:49:14 GMT -5
Per Chris Smith at MassLive: Jarren Duran reinstated. Cam Booser to IL (elbow inflammation) Brennan Bernardino back Enmanuel Valdez optioned to Worcester So Mickey Gasper is staying up? Wonder if that means Casas is returning imminently Mildly shocked they didn’t call up Penrod. I’d prefer he get a look for the next couple of weeks before Sept. 1st. Also, I fully expect Casas back by Friday at this point. He’s smoking the ball.
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Post by cba82 on Aug 14, 2024 14:35:09 GMT -5
Those lower-leg infections are no joke — my wife has been hospitalized with them a few times over the years and, if left untreated, can be life-threatening (sepsis).
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Post by dirtdog on Aug 14, 2024 14:48:13 GMT -5
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Post by dirtdog on Aug 14, 2024 14:50:15 GMT -5
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