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8/26-8/29 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
orion09
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Post by orion09 on Aug 26, 2024 15:42:49 GMT -5
We went into the offseason with the manager on the record responding to a question about needing two starting pitchers by saying “we might need three”. They signed one and traded one. I'm sort of in a weird spot in this debate because I agreed with the criticism in the offseason. But at that point I wasn't sure Houck could start and I didn't think Criswell would be so good. So in retrospect I was right for the wrong reasons - they did have a reasonable amount of depth, but the Giolito and Whitlock and later Paxton injuries undermined them.
I could say that I was right about how they ought to have signed Imanaga. But I also would've been happy if they had signed Montgomery or Maeda, so...
Yeah, it’s tough because the top two SP on the market that many (including myself) wanted on a short-term deal have either been hurt (Snell) or awful (Montgomery). FA is no sure thing. At the same time, it was clear to anyone with a brain that they needed 1-2 more SP than they got. Not sure what the answer is here.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 26, 2024 15:48:57 GMT -5
i feel like the sox should play the entire season on the road next year.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Aug 26, 2024 15:49:17 GMT -5
Twins play the Braves in Minny the next few days. The Twins do face the frontrunner for the NL Cy Young Award who was traded for Jeter Downs 2.0 in the rubber game.
If Sox win tonight and Twins lose they would gain a .5 game in the Wil- yeah sorry I can’t talk myself into this one. What an absolute brutal f’ing loss
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dcb26
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Post by dcb26 on Aug 26, 2024 15:51:33 GMT -5
Cora has either been ordered by 2 different GM/PoBO's over the last 2 years to use his worst pitchers in some of the most important situations, or he's actively choosing to do it. I'm pretty sure its safe to dismiss the "everyone whose initials are C.B. are ordering Cora to use bad pitchers" theory, so...I'm not going to speculate about WHY Cora is choosing to do this (I have my thoughts, they aren't positive, but who knows) but can we at least agree that this is happening?
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Aug 26, 2024 15:56:32 GMT -5
Martin warming Honestly if I’m Cora I’m going him and Kenley and hoping we steal this. If we don’t win and dominate this series we’re screwed anyway Managers should do this a lot more than they do. Down by a run the Red Sox have what, like a 30% win probability? As opposed to 90%+ going into the 8th with a 3-run lead. Use your best relievers when the outcome is most uncertain! You don't want to burn your relievers in a loss, especially when there's a clear A squad and an innings mopping-up B squad. That said, down 1-0 with a chance to keep it that way is not a spot that cries out for Garcia.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 26, 2024 16:04:25 GMT -5
I know Garcia has had a rough ten innings but I think he's pretty good and I'd take him over the rest of the pen other than Martin and Jansen. He's throwing upper 90s with a good slider and he throws strikes
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Aug 26, 2024 16:06:20 GMT -5
Cora has either been ordered by 2 different GM/PoBO's over the last 2 years to use his worst pitchers in some of the most important situations, or he's actively choosing to do it. I'm pretty sure its safe to dismiss the "everyone whose initials are C.B. are ordering Cora to use bad pitchers" theory, so...I'm not going to speculate about WHY Cora is choosing to do this (I have my thoughts, they aren't positive, but who knows) but can we at least agree that this is happening? Spite is why it's happening. Last year in the 2nd half he really appeared to have quit on the organization because he didn't like the support he was getting. He was never a Bloom guy, and ownership forced that relationship until it's conclusion. I get it, it sucks to be on a team where the general consensus is you have to win if you're going to win with what you have because the cavalry isn't coming, but at the same time the players and Cora are payed rather handsomely in comparison to most folk, so it does feel at least to me like a kid crying because his mom won't get him a pack of bubble gum on line at the store. Long winded way of saying I'm a fence sitter on Cora. That being said, managers in today's game don't really have an outsized role in the performance of their teams. 4-6 games outcomes a year are probably determined by their decision making. It's a players league and most of the managers now are essentially "hype men." "You da champ man, no one can touch you!" I'm not opining for Earl Weaver or Sparky Anderson either. It's a different time, the sport has gotten hyper athletic and with that fundamentals and baseball IQ has gone down the tubes. At game speed half of these guys don't even know what is the right move to make on the basepaths, or where to throw the ball without no less than 4 people in uniform and others screaming at them. It is what it is. Cora is an ok manager who gets a bump for managing in a town with fans who are notoriously a tough crowd. I scratch my head at some of his moves but at the end of the day he would just smile at me as he checks his bank account balance for the 15th time in the past ten minutes. I'm not going to lie, the amount of abuse I'd be willing to endure for a few years of what the major league min is is staggering. I might even let people throw batteries at me.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Aug 26, 2024 16:08:08 GMT -5
Managers should do this a lot more than they do. Down by a run the Red Sox have what, like a 30% win probability? As opposed to 90%+ going into the 8th with a 3-run lead. Use your best relievers when the outcome is most uncertain! You don't want to burn your relievers in a loss, especially when there's a clear A squad and an innings mopping-up B squad. That said, down 1-0 with a chance to keep it that way is not a spot that cries out for Garcia. It being a double-header complicates the decision (you’re not using Martin/Kenley in both games today)- but who knows if tonight features as high a leverage spot as that was
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Aug 26, 2024 16:17:33 GMT -5
The Last Stand of the 2024 Red Sox - featuring:
Duran CF, Abreu RF, Casas 1B, Devers 3B, O’Neill LF, Yoshida DH, Wong C, Gasper 2B, Hamilton SS
Zack Kelly opening
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Post by incandenza on Aug 26, 2024 16:19:10 GMT -5
I know Garcia has had a rough ten innings but I think he's pretty good and I'd take him over the rest of the pen other than Martin and Jansen. He's throwing upper 90s with a good slider and he throws strikes He throws strikes all right - he grooves everything middle-middle.
No idea if he was doing that in Los Angeles of Anaheim and getting away with it, or if it's something he's just started doing in Boston, or what. But he is the last guy I had any faith in to face Vlad.
Anyway, Martin was in fact available. They had just had him warming up!
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Post by incandenza on Aug 26, 2024 16:22:53 GMT -5
The Last Stand of the 2024 Red Sox - featuring: Duran CF, Abreu RF, Casas 1B, Devers 3B, O’Neill LF, Yoshida DH, Wong C, Gasper 2B, Hamilton SS Zack Kelly opening Hmm, sitting Rafaela... Wonder if that's due to his run of atrocioua plate appearances recently? 1 for his last 13, 46% K rate despite seeing approximately zero pitches in the zone.
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Aug 26, 2024 16:37:31 GMT -5
You don't want to burn your relievers in a loss, especially when there's a clear A squad and an innings mopping-up B squad. That said, down 1-0 with a chance to keep it that way is not a spot that cries out for Garcia. It being a double-header complicates the decision (you’re not using Martin/Kenley in both games today)- but who knows if tonight features as high a leverage spot as that was Your sentence was cut off. But there's a middle ground - use someone to drill down on the heart of the Jay's order and get out of the inning cleanly. Martin springs to mind. Then maybe the Sox rally in a 1-0 game instead of having to claw back against 2 or 3 or 4 runs. That way you still have Jansen for the night-cap. Cora's very role-oriented in the pen though. It wouldn't surprise me if he ends up going to another struggling middle-reliever in the nightcap, with the theory he's only going to use Martin and Jansen if the Sox are up. The upshot being he uses neither of them and we're 0-2 on the day. (I'm actually hoping to see whomever is the callup pitch. . .because that means the Sox would be up by 10.)
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 26, 2024 16:56:37 GMT -5
I’d say it’s pretty much done here for the season u less we win 8-9 in a row
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 26, 2024 17:15:02 GMT -5
I know Garcia has had a rough ten innings but I think he's pretty good and I'd take him over the rest of the pen other than Martin and Jansen. He's throwing upper 90s with a good slider and he throws strikes He throws strikes all right - he grooves everything middle-middle.
No idea if he was doing that in Los Angeles of Anaheim and getting away with it, or if it's something he's just started doing in Boston, or what. But he is the last guy I had any faith in to face Vlad.
Anyway, Martin was in fact available. They had just had him warming up!
Actually, there was a 3rd option. At 93 pitches Pivetta did have enough left in the tank to get Vladdy out again. Just sayin.
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Post by rhswanzey on Aug 26, 2024 17:27:34 GMT -5
I hold the (imho only) rational position that a major league manager understands reliever usage and leverage far better than I do as a random internet person. I feel that there is biometric and other availability data that we are not privy to. At this time of year, we are looking at YTD stats and splits. While we may have a clear leverage pecking order based on YTD stats and splits, the relievers are undoubtedly not equally fresh, and there are finite bullets. He obviously does not want to use Martin with any deficit. That says more about Martin not being 100% than anything, imo. You only have so much of him, so you can’t burn him in a loss.
We already experienced something like this in the last third of 2022, when there was no one trustworthy in the pen except for Whitlock and Schreiber. Due to the bullpen composition, it was almost irresponsible to use either pitcher to chase a come from behind win.
I also recall that as the Barraclough game was playing out, and in the immediate aftermath, a lot of us thought a couple arms were maybe less unavailable than they actually were. Like, if that was actually the case, it was just a big, deliberate middle finger to the front office. In hindsight, it was late August after another summer of heavy use short on starting pitcher innings. We’ve probably experienced some moments like this recently, where it “looks” like we have A, B, C, and D available, but two of them are barely available, and one is completely unavailable.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 26, 2024 17:32:42 GMT -5
He throws strikes all right - he grooves everything middle-middle.
No idea if he was doing that in Los Angeles of Anaheim and getting away with it, or if it's something he's just started doing in Boston, or what. But he is the last guy I had any faith in to face Vlad.
Anyway, Martin was in fact available. They had just had him warming up!
Actually, there was a 3rd option. At 93 pitches Pivetta did have enough left in the tank to get Vladdy out again. Just sayin. I certainly would have preferred that to Garcia! Though it's not crazy to me that they wanted to avoid having the homer-prone Pivetta face Vladdy for a third time. Even if that was off the table and they weren't going to bring in Martin I'd have preferred Winckowski to try to get the double play.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 26, 2024 17:39:16 GMT -5
I hold the (imho only) rational position that a major league manager understands reliever usage and leverage far better than I do as a random internet person. I feel that there is biometric and other availability data that we are not privy to. At this time of year, we are looking at YTD stats and splits. While we may have a clear leverage pecking order based on YTD stats and splits, the relievers are undoubtedly not equally fresh, and there are finite bullets. He obviously does not want to use Martin with any deficit. That says more about Martin not being 100% than anything, imo. You only have so much of him, so you can’t burn him in a loss.This reasoning completely and utterly eludes me. They obviously don't know in advance whether any given game is going to be a win or a loss; all they can do is try to make it as likely as possible that they're going to win - which means using your best relievers in high leverage situations!
If you start from this loss-aversion stance that you're only going to use your best reliever in a win, then you end up using them when wins are already mostly assured. That's how you end up bringing in your closers with 3-run leads and 97% win expectancy. That's burning them pointlessly.
As for availability, we can be all but certain that Martin was available because he had just been warming up. (Can't remember if it was before or after Pivetta had given up the home run to Springer.)
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 26, 2024 17:46:44 GMT -5
Last time Sox were 4 over .500 was June 30.
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Post by rhswanzey on Aug 26, 2024 17:51:08 GMT -5
I hold the (imho only) rational position that a major league manager understands reliever usage and leverage far better than I do as a random internet person. I feel that there is biometric and other availability data that we are not privy to. At this time of year, we are looking at YTD stats and splits. While we may have a clear leverage pecking order based on YTD stats and splits, the relievers are undoubtedly not equally fresh, and there are finite bullets. He obviously does not want to use Martin with any deficit. That says more about Martin not being 100% than anything, imo. You only have so much of him, so you can’t burn him in a loss.This reasoning completely and utterly eludes me. They obviously don't know in advance whether any given game is going to be a win or a loss; all they can do is try to make it as likely as possible that they're going to win - which means using your best relievers in high leverage situations!
If you start from this loss-aversion stance that you're only going to use your best reliever in a win, then you end up using them when wins are already mostly assured. That's how you end up bringing in your closers with 3-run leads and 97% win expectancy. That's burning them pointlessly.
As for availability, we can be all but certain that Martin was available because he had just been warming up. (Can't remember if it was before or after Pivetta had given up the home run to Springer.)
There’s been a lottttt of warming Martin or Jansen alongside one of Kelly, Winck, Weissert, at the same time, over the past few weeks. We’re still talking about an upper 30s arm who’s been on the IL for both shoulder and elbow. You’re right that there’s a big difference between down 1 and down 2-3, which makes my post weaker. This team as constructed definitely hasn’t had a 97% win expectancy with close and late leads post ASB. If he burns Martin in game 1, we lose 1-0, and then we blow a 5-2 lead in the 8th without our top setup guy available, what does the board have to say about that?
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Post by incandenza on Aug 26, 2024 17:58:45 GMT -5
This reasoning completely and utterly eludes me. They obviously don't know in advance whether any given game is going to be a win or a loss; all they can do is try to make it as likely as possible that they're going to win - which means using your best relievers in high leverage situations!
If you start from this loss-aversion stance that you're only going to use your best reliever in a win, then you end up using them when wins are already mostly assured. That's how you end up bringing in your closers with 3-run leads and 97% win expectancy. That's burning them pointlessly.
As for availability, we can be all but certain that Martin was available because he had just been warming up. (Can't remember if it was before or after Pivetta had given up the home run to Springer.)
There’s been a lottttt of warming Martin or Jansen alongside one of Kelly, Winck, Weissert, at the same time, over the past few weeks. We’re still talking about an upper 30s arm who’s been on the IL for both shoulder and elbow. You’re right that there’s a big difference between down 1 and down 2-3, which makes my post weaker. This team as constructed definitely hasn’t had a 97% win expectancy with close and late leads post ASB. If he burns Martin in game 1, we lose 1-0, and then we blow a 5-2 lead in the 8th without our top setup guy available, what does the board have to say about that?I think this is actually a revealing comment: managers, players, and fans are scared of this scenario because of the loss aversion fallacy. It would feel bad if this worst possible scenario played out. So they strategize in such a way as to avoid the bad feelings. But personally I think it's a bad idea to base strategy on a fallacy; I'm only interested in what maximizes their chances of winning.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 26, 2024 17:59:04 GMT -5
In a lot of ways, I feel for the players, fans, FO. Say what you want about the team, but to have this kind of late summer collapse so many recent years, well....it is pretty unlucky.
That said, You gotta play all 162 and hope that you major competitors starting pitching all need TJ surgery within the next week (kidding...I think...lol). Lets rip off 7 (lucky number) in a row and get back in prime position.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 26, 2024 18:00:19 GMT -5
When do we start rooting for draft position? This is getting out of hand real quick.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 26, 2024 18:04:54 GMT -5
Slaten is back.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Aug 26, 2024 18:05:12 GMT -5
Can they stick Ceddanne in a commune with Chase Meidroth over the winter:
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 26, 2024 18:20:24 GMT -5
Duran...been said many times before, exceeded expectations. I would throw an extension this offseason at him. Maybe 5-7 at 50-80 or something. Tear up the the pre-arb /arb stuff and let him make some bank.
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