SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Predicting The 2025 Opening Day Roster
|
|
Post by samb on Sept 27, 2024 15:30:15 GMT -5
There is something to be said for this. The majority of fans and reporters alike were proclaiming in no uncertain terms that Jordan Montgomery would make the Red Sox much better, and that their lack of aggressiveness was an indicator of ownership being cheap. Fast forward, and he is the worst pitcher in baseball, and the Sox are far better off not having him on their roster. I believe the Grissom-Sale swap is more indicative than anything else on how the FO felt about the group contending in the short-term. However, even that trade, which clearly prioritizes the future over the present, included a significant chunk of cash going to ATL. If it were as simple as the organization being cheap, wouldn’t they offload Sale’s contract and take less talent back in exchange for the financial relief? To me, it looks more like they are abiding by a strategy that resists aggressive investment until the club is ready to “push in chips”, and last offseason, they felt they were not there yet. This. For 2024 they decided (incorrectly, I would say) how competitive the team would be, and decided to prioritize 2025 and beyond instead - and hopefully that pays off next year, although its definitely frustrating for myself and others who believed they were already on the cusp of being competitive in 2024 and just needed an extra push. As far as the whole being cheap thing: There's a difference between "cheap" and "cheap er", and ownership may be less willing to spend than they were, but calling them outright cheap is a stretch, in comparison to other owners, anyway. Past is the past, but I would be feeling much better about next year if they had at least stuck to their 2025 plan and gotten some long term assets for our free agents at the trade deadline. I think we Breslow trades Duran this off-season. He is great but that means we can get some great pitching for him. I would offer TON the qualifying offer. |
|
|
|
Post by trotnixon7 on Sept 27, 2024 19:06:55 GMT -5
There is something to be said for this. The majority of fans and reporters alike were proclaiming in no uncertain terms that Jordan Montgomery would make the Red Sox much better, and that their lack of aggressiveness was an indicator of ownership being cheap. Fast forward, and he is the worst pitcher in baseball, and the Sox are far better off not having him on their roster. I believe the Grissom-Sale swap is more indicative than anything else on how the FO felt about the group contending in the short-term. However, even that trade, which clearly prioritizes the future over the present, included a significant chunk of cash going to ATL. If it were as simple as the organization being cheap, wouldn’t they offload Sale’s contract and take less talent back in exchange for the financial relief? To me, it looks more like they are abiding by a strategy that resists aggressive investment until the club is ready to “push in chips”, and last offseason, they felt they were not there yet. This. For 2024 they decided (incorrectly, I would say) how competitive the team would be, and decided to prioritize 2025 and beyond instead - and hopefully that pays off next year, although its definitely frustrating for myself and others who believed they were already on the cusp of being competitive in 2024 and just needed an extra push. As far as the whole being cheap thing: There's a difference between "cheap" and "cheap er", and ownership may be less willing to spend than they were, but calling them outright cheap is a stretch, in comparison to other owners, anyway. I don't see it as a stretch at all. They are the 3rd most valuable franchise in baseball and are 12th in payroll..behind teams like Toronto. 65M separates them from 3rd (about where they should be) which is the same distance as them and teams like minn and KC. They are the only monster market who seem afraid to go over the cbt. 23M separates boston and SD..they are in essence much closer to "mid market spending" than big market. Now obviously you CAN win this way but theirs also a direct correlation with spending to winning on average. |
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Sept 27, 2024 19:12:46 GMT -5
Fried would be the only SP on that list worth a 7 year deal
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 6,652 
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Sept 27, 2024 19:20:08 GMT -5
I'm inclined to believe Speier. Been my feeling all along that they're going to make a trade that is going to sting. For some reason I'm feeling like Mayer is going to be dangled. Would suck to see him go as I'm a big believer but for the right trade it may be worth it. Would still leave story and Campbell for the MI for years to come. Might be tough to trust story to stay healthy but I'm cautiously optimistic he can be valuable at SS.
|
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 27, 2024 20:17:29 GMT -5
I'm inclined to believe Speier. Been my feeling all along that they're going to make a trade that is going to sting. For some reason I'm feeling like Mayer is going to be dangled. Would suck to see him go as I'm a big believer but for the right trade it may be worth it. Would still leave story and Campbell for the MI for years to come. Might be tough to trust story to stay healthy but I'm cautiously optimistic he can be valuable at SS. No surprise but I'm thinking the same thing you're thinking. Breslow mentioned the glut of middle infielders and the overabundance of LH hitters. I have a gnawing feeling Breslow will trade Mayer and I'm not going to be happy about that. I wouldnt choose the future of Trevor Story over Marcelo Mayer but I think that's what Breslow will ultimately do. I think Mayer and Abreu will be dealt. I'd rather the Sox simply go after the Burnes/Fried/Snell tier but Breslow made a comment about chasing the right pitchers this past offseason so I can also see them doing the rising stock investment thing this winter but that makes me uneasy. If they pass up one of the top notch consistent talents in favor of a much cheaper investment that doesnt pan out and they're short front line pitching yet again, that's not going to sit well with a lot of people. |
|
|
|
Post by kwodes on Sept 27, 2024 20:18:12 GMT -5
I'm inclined to believe Speier. Been my feeling all along that they're going to make a trade that is going to sting. For some reason I'm feeling like Mayer is going to be dangled. Would suck to see him go as I'm a big believer but for the right trade it may be worth it. Would still leave story and Campbell for the MI for years to come. Might be tough to trust story to stay healthy but I'm cautiously optimistic he can be valuable at SS. All the more reason to sign Soto. Add to the surplus, add elite talent, allows us to add to trade package for SP |
|
|
|
Post by taiwansox on Sept 27, 2024 21:00:40 GMT -5
I'm inclined to believe Speier. Been my feeling all along that they're going to make a trade that is going to sting. For some reason I'm feeling like Mayer is going to be dangled. Would suck to see him go as I'm a big believer but for the right trade it may be worth it. Would still leave story and Campbell for the MI for years to come. Might be tough to trust story to stay healthy but I'm cautiously optimistic he can be valuable at SS. Agreed, I think we could see a Mayer/Abreu package for someone like Alcantara, but not for one of Seattle pitchers, too much regression risk |
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 27, 2024 22:42:07 GMT -5
I'm inclined to believe Speier. Been my feeling all along that they're going to make a trade that is going to sting. For some reason I'm feeling like Mayer is going to be dangled. Would suck to see him go as I'm a big believer but for the right trade it may be worth it. Would still leave story and Campbell for the MI for years to come. Might be tough to trust story to stay healthy but I'm cautiously optimistic he can be valuable at SS. All the more reason to sign Soto. Add to the surplus, add elite talent, allows us to add to trade package for SP A left handed relatively poor defensive outfielder doesn't seem likely to me. That would pretty much go against the organizational philosophy the past few seasons. YMMV |
|
|
|
Post by finaliz3d on Sept 27, 2024 22:52:12 GMT -5
I'm inclined to believe Speier. Been my feeling all along that they're going to make a trade that is going to sting. For some reason I'm feeling like Mayer is going to be dangled. Would suck to see him go as I'm a big believer but for the right trade it may be worth it. Would still leave story and Campbell for the MI for years to come. Might be tough to trust story to stay healthy but I'm cautiously optimistic he can be valuable at SS. Agreed, I think we could see a Mayer/Abreu package for someone like Alcantara, but not for one of Seattle pitchers, too much regression risk Regression risk? I mean I guess so, but Alcantara had a pretty uninspiring season last year and obviously missed all of this year. If anything is risky, expecting Alcantara to be a #1/#2 pitcher given the last two years is quite risky. |
|
|
|
Post by taiwansox on Sept 27, 2024 23:06:53 GMT -5
Agreed, I think we could see a Mayer/Abreu package for someone like Alcantara, but not for one of Seattle pitchers, too much regression risk Regression risk? I mean I guess so, but Alcantara had a pretty uninspiring season last year and obviously missed all of this year. If anything is risky, expecting Alcantara to be a #1/#2 pitcher given the last two years is quite risky. All depends on the price, I could see them doing none of the above, but it’s pretty brutal finding any kind of value on the pitching front. If the goal is to find 4+ WAR in a pitcher, Alcantara might be the best bet just like Sale ended up. Kirby is the only one I’d trade for on Seattle but I don’t want to know the price… |
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Sept 27, 2024 23:26:24 GMT -5
Alcantara is signed for 2/36 with a $19 million club option. I would much rather just sign Nick Pivetta for that money than give up Marcelo and Abreu.
|
|
|
|
Post by finaliz3d on Sept 27, 2024 23:32:03 GMT -5
Regression risk? I mean I guess so, but Alcantara had a pretty uninspiring season last year and obviously missed all of this year. If anything is risky, expecting Alcantara to be a #1/#2 pitcher given the last two years is quite risky. All depends on the price, I could see them doing none of the above, but it’s pretty brutal finding any kind of value on the pitching front. If the goal is to find 4+ WAR in a pitcher, Alcantara might be the best bet just like Sale ended up. Kirby is the only one I’d trade for on Seattle but I don’t want to know the price… I see that, to be fair I don't think the Braves even expected what happened, they were hoping to get a quality #4 starter... and then Sale obviously blew every expectation out of the water... I'd probably just pay the price for Kirby assuming it's not too outlandish. I don't know what the actual price is for Kirby, but I think Mayer/Abreu is painful but gets it done, and if you have to throw in a sweetener to get it done, you do it. Like Sale for example cost us our #1, #5, #7, and #21 prospects according to this site. Kirby isn't what Sale was, as Sale was coming off of five straight Top 5 Cy-Young voting seasons and shouldn't be as expensive... so I think Mayer, Abreu and say... Valera if you need a sweetener? It would suck, but I'd pay that. Alcantara is signed for 2/36 with a $19 million club option. I would much rather just sign Nick Pivetta for that money than give up Marcelo and Abreu. Alcantara wouldn't cost that much unless the Marlins are crazy, at which point we laugh them out of the room. It could be a comparable or slightly higher price to what we paid for Sale, not Mayer and Abreu. |
|
|
|
Post by taiwansox on Sept 27, 2024 23:40:21 GMT -5
All depends on the price, I could see them doing none of the above, but it’s pretty brutal finding any kind of value on the pitching front. If the goal is to find 4+ WAR in a pitcher, Alcantara might be the best bet just like Sale ended up. Kirby is the only one I’d trade for on Seattle but I don’t want to know the price… I see that, to be fair I don't think the Braves even expected what happened, they were hoping to get a quality #4 starter... and then Sale obviously blew every expectation out of the water... I'd probably just pay the price for Kirby assuming it's not too outlandish. I don't know what the actual price is for Kirby, but I think Mayer/Abreu is painful but gets it done, and if you have to throw in a sweetener to get it done, you do it. Like Sale for example cost us our #1, #5, #7, and #21 prospects according to this site. Kirby isn't what Sale was, as Sale was coming off of five straight Top 5 Cy-Young voting seasons and shouldn't be as expensive... so I think Mayer, Abreu and say... Valera if you need a sweetener? It would suck, but I'd pay that. Alcantara is signed for 2/36 with a $19 million club option. I would much rather just sign Nick Pivetta for that money than give up Marcelo and Abreu. Alcantara wouldn't cost that much unless the Marlins are crazy, at which point we laugh them out of the room. It could be a comparable or slightly higher price to what we paid for Sale, not Mayer and Abreu. I think I added some confusion, I meant a package centered around either Abreu or Mayer not both. But mentioning for Kirby, I think you might be on to something trading both of them. There’s no depth in this market unless you think Kikuchi is what he’s been for Houston, so it really does look like the only way to improve is through a trade |
|
|
|
Post by taiwansox on Sept 27, 2024 23:41:12 GMT -5
Alcantara is signed for 2/36 with a $19 million club option. I would much rather just sign Nick Pivetta for that money than give up Marcelo and Abreu. I meant Mayer or Abreu, sorry for the mixup! |
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,793
|
Post by asm18 on Sept 28, 2024 0:59:58 GMT -5
All the more reason to sign Soto. Add to the surplus, add elite talent, allows us to add to trade package for SP A left handed relatively poor defensive outfielder doesn't seem likely to me. That would pretty much go against the organizational philosophy the past few seasons. YMMV If a team’s organizational philosophy prevents it from being able to accommodate a 25 year old Ted Williams clone - already in his career Soto has a .950 OPS, 200 homers, and more walks than strikeouts - then they should probably change their philosophy |
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 6,652
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Sept 28, 2024 2:48:22 GMT -5
I'm inclined to believe Speier. Been my feeling all along that they're going to make a trade that is going to sting. For some reason I'm feeling like Mayer is going to be dangled. Would suck to see him go as I'm a big believer but for the right trade it may be worth it. Would still leave story and Campbell for the MI for years to come. Might be tough to trust story to stay healthy but I'm cautiously optimistic he can be valuable at SS. Agreed, I think we could see a Mayer/Abreu package for someone like Alcantara, but not for one of Seattle pitchers, too much regression risk Like I said I fear a Mayer trade may be possible but if Mayer gets traded for Alcantara a dude coming back from TJ and didn't pitch last year I would lose a lot of faith in breslow. I feel like he would know better than that though so I'm optimistic he would not do that. |
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Sept 28, 2024 6:22:53 GMT -5
If they make a trade, I’d like them to leave the “big 4” out of it, but they need to shake up the LHH problem at some point.
Idk about the pitching side yet, but offense/defense:
Trade for Vlad Jr: Casas and Bleis plus lower level prospects. Extend Vlad, still only 25 (year older than Casas) fits our timeline and is a monster RHH in middle of lineup.
Resign: O’Neil, Rob Ref and Jansen… I’d give O’Neil a first baseman’s glove too this spring.
Opening Day Lineup:
Duran LF (LHH)
Story (SS) (Rhh)
Devers (3b) (LHH)
Vlad (1b) (rhh)
O’Neil (dh) (rhh)
Abreu (rf) (LHH)
Wong (c) (rhh)
Campbell (2b) (rhh)
Rafaela (cf) (rhh)
Bench: Yoshida (LHH), Rob ref (rhh), Jansen (rhh), Grissom/Hamilton
If Anthony is ready then trade Yoshida even if you have to eat salary.
I know it doesn’t look like much of a LHH issue, but Meyer, Anthony and Teel are all LHh.
If you need to trade Abreu for pitching then that’s fine
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 6,652
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Sept 28, 2024 6:25:52 GMT -5
If they make a trade, I’d like them to leave the “big 4” out of it, but they need to shake up the LHH problem at some point. Idk about the pitching side yet, but offense/defense: Trade for Vlad Jr: Casas and Bleis plus lower level prospects. Extend Vlad, still only 25 (year older than Casas) fits our timeline and is a monster RHH in middle of lineup. Resign: O’Neil, Rob Ref and Jansen… I’d give O’Neil a first baseman’s glove too this spring. Opening Day Lineup: Duran LF (LHH) Story (SS) (Rhh) Devers (3b) (LHH) Vlad (1b) (rhh) O’Neil (dh) (rhh) Abreu (rf) (LHH) Wong (c) (rhh) Campbell (2b) (rhh) Rafaela (cf) (rhh) Bench: Yoshida (LHH), Rob ref (rhh), Jansen (rhh), Grissom/Hamilton If Anthony is ready then trade Yoshida even if you have to eat salary. I know it doesn’t look like much of a LHH issue, but Meyer, Anthony and Teel are all LHh. If you need to trade Abreu for pitching then that’s fine I know they need to get more RHH but IMO trading Casas for Vlad to pay Vlad a big contract isn't the answer. Casas the next 4 years probably won't make as much as Vlad will cost AAV wise. Just doesn't seem like good allocation of payroll to me. |
|
|
|
Post by bellhorndingers21 on Sept 28, 2024 6:49:55 GMT -5
If they make a trade, I’d like them to leave the “big 4” out of it, but they need to shake up the LHH problem at some point. Idk about the pitching side yet, but offense/defense: Trade for Vlad Jr: Casas and Bleis plus lower level prospects. Extend Vlad, still only 25 (year older than Casas) fits our timeline and is a monster RHH in middle of lineup. Resign: O’Neil, Rob Ref and Jansen… I’d give O’Neil a first baseman’s glove too this spring. Opening Day Lineup: Duran LF (LHH) Story (SS) (Rhh) Devers (3b) (LHH) Vlad (1b) (rhh) O’Neil (dh) (rhh) Abreu (rf) (LHH) Wong (c) (rhh) Campbell (2b) (rhh) Rafaela (cf) (rhh) Bench: Yoshida (LHH), Rob ref (rhh), Jansen (rhh), Grissom/Hamilton If Anthony is ready then trade Yoshida even if you have to eat salary. I know it doesn’t look like much of a LHH issue, but Meyer, Anthony and Teel are all LHh. If you need to trade Abreu for pitching then that’s fine I've been beating this drum in the Trade Proposal Sub and I'll do it here: absolutely do not trade any of the current talent on league minimum deals for players on 1 year deals who will require immediate extensions. It's poor asset management and the team is not in the position to say they are a piece away. |
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Sept 28, 2024 7:09:08 GMT -5
I doubt Casas will go for it, but perhaps he’s now willing to take the certainty of an extension. Previously he seemed committed to betting on himself, but the injury may have scared him off that. I’d be happy with that if they could find a good number.
|
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Sept 28, 2024 7:12:22 GMT -5
Fried would be the only SP on that list worth a 7 year deal The idea of just finding the pitchers ready to take a step forward feels a bit over confident to me. Like if it was that easy they could have signed any of the three named guys last offseason (though to be fair many of us did specifically want Lugo or Imanaga). |
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Sept 28, 2024 7:12:44 GMT -5
If they make a trade, I’d like them to leave the “big 4” out of it, but they need to shake up the LHH problem at some point. Idk about the pitching side yet, but offense/defense: Trade for Vlad Jr: Casas and Bleis plus lower level prospects. Extend Vlad, still only 25 (year older than Casas) fits our timeline and is a monster RHH in middle of lineup. Resign: O’Neil, Rob Ref and Jansen… I’d give O’Neil a first baseman’s glove too this spring. Opening Day Lineup: Duran LF (LHH) Story (SS) (Rhh) Devers (3b) (LHH) Vlad (1b) (rhh) O’Neil (dh) (rhh) Abreu (rf) (LHH) Wong (c) (rhh) Campbell (2b) (rhh) Rafaela (cf) (rhh) Bench: Yoshida (LHH), Rob ref (rhh), Jansen (rhh), Grissom/Hamilton If Anthony is ready then trade Yoshida even if you have to eat salary. I know it doesn’t look like much of a LHH issue, but Meyer, Anthony and Teel are all LHh. If you need to trade Abreu for pitching then that’s fine I've been beating this drum in the Trade Proposal Sub and I'll do it here: absolutely do not trade any of the current talent on league minimum deals for players on 1 year deals who will require immediate extensions. It's poor asset management and the team is not in the position to say they are a piece away. You’d only do it if you can agree to an extension as part of the trade. If Vlad is hell bent on FA then maybe you don’t. |
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Sept 28, 2024 7:16:37 GMT -5
If they make a trade, I’d like them to leave the “big 4” out of it, but they need to shake up the LHH problem at some point. Idk about the pitching side yet, but offense/defense: Trade for Vlad Jr: Casas and Bleis plus lower level prospects. Extend Vlad, still only 25 (year older than Casas) fits our timeline and is a monster RHH in middle of lineup. Resign: O’Neil, Rob Ref and Jansen… I’d give O’Neil a first baseman’s glove too this spring. Opening Day Lineup: Duran LF (LHH) Story (SS) (Rhh) Devers (3b) (LHH) Vlad (1b) (rhh) O’Neil (dh) (rhh) Abreu (rf) (LHH) Wong (c) (rhh) Campbell (2b) (rhh) Rafaela (cf) (rhh) Bench: Yoshida (LHH), Rob ref (rhh), Jansen (rhh), Grissom/Hamilton If Anthony is ready then trade Yoshida even if you have to eat salary. I know it doesn’t look like much of a LHH issue, but Meyer, Anthony and Teel are all LHh. If you need to trade Abreu for pitching then that’s fine I know they need to get more RHH but IMO trading Casas for Vlad to pay Vlad a big contract isn't the answer. Casas the next 4 years probably won't make as much as Vlad will cost AAV wise. Just doesn't seem like good allocation of payroll to me. Guess it depends on if the team will actually really spend when the time comes but I disagree. Vlad is 25, those are the guys you hand big money too and it fits the overlapping contracts timeline long term. I disagree this team isn’t close to contenting and even if it’s 2 years or 3 years Vlad is young enough that this works perfectly anyways. Vlad is what you hope Casas can become but from the right side. Sometimes (oftentimes) we over-value the guys we’ve followed and dreamt on since being drafted. |
|
|
|
Post by bellhorndingers21 on Sept 28, 2024 7:27:32 GMT -5
You’d only do it if you can agree to an extension as part of the trade. If Vlad is hell bent on FA then maybe you don’t. All the same. Casas should return more in a trade than a year value of Guerrero. You'd be paying a premium for the chance to discuss an extension and likely a premium then to persuade him from skipping free agency. It's poor asset allocation. |
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 28, 2024 7:34:41 GMT -5
I've been beating this drum in the Trade Proposal Sub and I'll do it here: absolutely do not trade any of the current talent on league minimum deals for players on 1 year deals who will require immediate extensions. It's poor asset management and the team is not in the position to say they are a piece away. You’d only do it if you can agree to an extension as part of the trade. If Vlad is hell bent on FA then maybe you don’t. Now that you mention this, I can see a scenario where the Sox are cool on Casas and would try to negotiate a deal with Vlad Jr on an extension (again maybe I'm reading more into this than i should, but I think he has a disdain of the Yankees and probably would be very amenable to a long term extension with the Sox) and a deal of Casas for Vlad Jr could happen as the Blue Jays are not likely to extend him and Casas comes cheaper for a long period of time with an upside that could result in little to no dropoff for the Jays. I remember the interesting lefty DH Mike Easler for righty DH Don Baylor swap from 1986. This lefty righty 1b swap would be even more interesting. A deal like this, contingent upon an extension, actually makes sense for both teams and gives the Sox a righty masher in the middle that they need. Great idea that's truly realistic and reasonable for both sides. Sox might have to add a gpod mid tiered prospect like a Mikey Romero or Bleis to the deal, but I think a deal like this makes sense. Devers and Vlad Jr make a nice lefty righty middle of the order. Not Soto and Judge level, but still pretty damn good. |
|
|
