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Predicting The 2025 Opening Day Roster
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Post by kwodes on Sept 28, 2024 8:21:13 GMT -5
You’d only do it if you can agree to an extension as part of the trade. If Vlad is hell bent on FA then maybe you don’t. Now that you mention this, I can see a scenario where the Sox are cool on Casas and would try to negotiate a deal with Vlad Jr on an extension (again maybe I'm reading more into this than i should, but I think he has a disdain of the Yankees and probably would be very amenable to a long term extension with the Sox) and a deal of Casas for Vlad Jr could happen as the Blue Jays are not likely to extend him and Casas comes cheaper for a long period of time with an upside that could result in little to no dropoff for the Jays. I remember the interesting lefty DH Mike Easler for righty DH Don Baylor swap from 1986. This lefty righty 1b swap would be even more interesting. A deal like this, contingent upon an extension, actually makes sense for both teams and gives the Sox a righty masher in the middle that they need. Great idea that's truly realistic and reasonable for both sides. Sox might have to add a gpod mid tiered prospect like a Mikey Romero or Bleis to the deal, but I think a deal like this makes sense. Devers and Vlad Jr make a nice lefty righty middle of the order. Not Soto and Judge level, but still pretty damn good. i thought about this the other day. Casas for vlad makes sense for both sides (assuming vlad signs an extension). A top 3 of Duran, Vlad, Devers is pretty great. Also, doesn't preclude you from resigning ONeill if you wanted. Vs RHP Duran CF Vlad 1B Devers 3B ONeill LF Yoshida DH Story SS Abreu RF Grissom 2B Teel/free agent acquisition C Vs LHP Duran LF Vlad 1B Devers 3B ONeill DH Refsnyder RF Story SS Grissom 2B Wong C Rafaela CF |
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,793
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Post by asm18 on Sept 28, 2024 8:26:43 GMT -5
Fried would be the only SP on that list worth a 7 year deal The idea of just finding the pitchers ready to take a step forward feels a bit over confident to me. Like if it was that easy they could have signed any of the three named guys last offseason (though to be fair many of us did specifically want Lugo or Imanaga). This. I would also imagine it’s easier to find that “pre-breakout guy” they’re seeking via trade than free agency. Most of these free agents will be 30 years or older by opening day. Certainly guys can figure things out or have career years as they get older, but I’m not sure exactly who’d you expect to be dramatically better in the current middle tier (aka the not super expensive group!) group of starters below. Pitcher (current age): Jack Flaherty (28) - tbh he might have priced himself out of this group. Shane Bieber - off TJ (29) Walker Buehler (30) Luis Severino (30) Jordan Montgomery (31) Frankie Montas (31) Nick Pivetta (31) Robbie Ray (opt-out) (32) Sean Manaea (32) Spencer Turnbull (32) Michael Wacha (33) Yusei Kikuchi (33) Andrew Heaney (33) There’s a number of guys here who have been competent starters for quite a while, as well as a couple who were studs a few years ago before injuries took them (Buelher, Severino, Montas). If they nab one of these guys for a cost effective deal, I mean sure go for it. But my expectations wouldn’t be a 3.00 ERA and topline results like 2024 Lugo, Imanaga, & Flaherty |
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Post by costpet on Sept 28, 2024 8:34:35 GMT -5
Duran LF
Rafala CF
Anthony RF
Casas 1B
Campbell 2B
Story SS
Devers 3B
Teel C
Yoshi and O'Neil DH
Trade Abreu for pitching help
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 28, 2024 8:36:15 GMT -5
Montgomery on a 1 year bounce back deal would be interesting
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 28, 2024 8:47:01 GMT -5
I know they need to get more RHH but IMO trading Casas for Vlad to pay Vlad a big contract isn't the answer. Casas the next 4 years probably won't make as much as Vlad will cost AAV wise. Just doesn't seem like good allocation of payroll to me. Guess it depends on if the team will actually really spend when the time comes but I disagree. Vlad is 25, those are the guys you hand big money too and it fits the overlapping contracts timeline long term. I disagree this team isn’t close to contenting and even if it’s 2 years or 3 years Vlad is young enough that this works perfectly anyways. Vlad is what you hope Casas can become but from the right side. Sometimes (oftentimes) we over-value the guys we’ve followed and dreamt on since being drafted. Never said this team isn't close to contending and like I said even if Vlad takes an extension I'd still rather have Casas making peanuts for the next 4 years vs paying Vlad 25+AAV for however many years. I'm just not interested in paying big bucks for a 1st base/DH that honestly I don't know offers that much extra value over Casas. That money can be better spent elsewhere. |
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Post by Guidas on Sept 28, 2024 10:22:55 GMT -5
The greatest trick the devil ever played was letting owners convince fans that the only way to improve a baseball team was to suck for an extended period so that they could cut back on the money they put into the team in order to maximize profits. The corruption of the current crop of owners in the mean can be evinced by them continuing to allow John Fischer to own a team. Ditto any owner who continues to pocket the "Competitive Ballance" money like the jerk face in Miami. |
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Post by trotnixon7 on Sept 28, 2024 10:25:48 GMT -5
I feel like this offseason is going to be more of the same, maybe a bit more actual due to the surplus at the mlb level but nothing that'll be all that exciting.
Boston honestly has an embarrassment of riches in terms of upper tier minor league talent (big 4), an already decent core making little (houck, Whitlock, Casas, Bello, Crawford etc) and a surplus in areas that could be traded (rafaela, grissom, abreu etc). It's a middling team that could turn into a monster over night without disrupting much.
Matt Marini what's insane is they could realistically build a monster over night.
1. Give soto 43M/yr over 13 yrs. If he doesn't accept? So be it...but let's say he does..
2. Trade for rooker
3. Trade yoshia + for someone like Castillo
Duran- soto- devers-rooker- casas- story- Mayer- anthony- Teel...by may when story is hurt...put in Campbell.
Ship off grissom/rafaela and surplus for pitching.
Sign a front like starter (let's say 30M).
1. Let's say fried 6 yrs 30 per
2. Houck
3. Castillo
4. Bello
5. Crawford/gio
Pen? Trade some of that surplus for someone like Mason Miller (a closer shouldn't be impossible to get), you get Hendricks back and fill the rest.
All this for about 100M. It'll bring boston back around the the top 4 or 5 in payroll.
Now is this team perfect? No..admittedly getting a DH type and LFer doesn't help defensive flexibility but I'm sick of hearing "flexibility" and "value". At some point as a big market you have to worry about getting elite talent.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 28, 2024 10:35:26 GMT -5
Duran LF Trade Abreu for pitching help Trading Abreu for pitching is my solution, too. Of course, last off season my route on the surplus was to trade Duran, so take that for what its worth. Abreu has some pop and a good arm. But his impact will be replaceable by Anthony, and the left bat issue is real surplus. |
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Sept 28, 2024 10:39:40 GMT -5
I feel like this offseason is going to be more of the same, maybe a bit more actual due to the surplus at the mlb level but nothing that'll be all that exciting. Boston honestly has an embarrassment of riches in terms of upper tier minor league talent (big 4), an already decent core making little (houck, Whitlock, Casas, Bello, Crawford etc) and a surplus in areas that could be traded (rafaela, grissom, abreu etc). It's a middling team that could turn into a monster over night without disrupting much. Why do people keep mentioning the oft and currently injured Whitlock as part of the core? It's unfortunate, but Whitlock is just another guy at this point. |
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Post by keninten on Sept 28, 2024 11:54:23 GMT -5
You’d only do it if you can agree to an extension as part of the trade. If Vlad is hell bent on FA then maybe you don’t. Now that you mention this, I can see a scenario where the Sox are cool on Casas and would try to negotiate a deal with Vlad Jr on an extension (again maybe I'm reading more into this than i should, but I think he has a disdain of the Yankees and probably would be very amenable to a long term extension with the Sox) and a deal of Casas for Vlad Jr could happen as the Blue Jays are not likely to extend him and Casas comes cheaper for a long period of time with an upside that could result in little to no dropoff for the Jays. I remember the interesting lefty DH Mike Easler for righty DH Don Baylor swap from 1986. This lefty righty 1b swap would be even more interesting. A deal like this, contingent upon an extension, actually makes sense for both teams and gives the Sox a righty masher in the middle that they need. Great idea that's truly realistic and reasonable for both sides. Sox might have to add a gpod mid tiered prospect like a Mikey Romero or Bleis to the deal, but I think a deal like this makes sense. Devers and Vlad Jr make a nice lefty righty middle of the order. Not Soto and Judge level, but still pretty damn good.I was thinking the Jays would have to add something to get Casas in a trade for Vlad. Jays have no use for Vlad except as trade bait. Casas would help them in the future. No way would I trade Casas straight up for Vlad. |
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Post by trotnixon7 on Sept 28, 2024 12:34:33 GMT -5
I feel like this offseason is going to be more of the same, maybe a bit more actual due to the surplus at the mlb level but nothing that'll be all that exciting. Boston honestly has an embarrassment of riches in terms of upper tier minor league talent (big 4), an already decent core making little (houck, Whitlock, Casas, Bello, Crawford etc) and a surplus in areas that could be traded (rafaela, grissom, abreu etc). It's a middling team that could turn into a monster over night without disrupting much. Why do people keep mentioning the oft and currently injured Whitlock as part of the core? It's unfortunate, but Whitlock is just another guy at this point. Maybe right but he should be put in the pen, issues seemed to really start when they forced him into the sp role. But my main point is they have a big chunk of the roster making peanuts and people are STILL worrying about "value" signings and what not. The goal should be getting some star power back in Boston.. |
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Sept 28, 2024 12:44:58 GMT -5
Now that you mention this, I can see a scenario where the Sox are cool on Casas and would try to negotiate a deal with Vlad Jr on an extension (again maybe I'm reading more into this than i should, but I think he has a disdain of the Yankees and probably would be very amenable to a long term extension with the Sox) and a deal of Casas for Vlad Jr could happen as the Blue Jays are not likely to extend him and Casas comes cheaper for a long period of time with an upside that could result in little to no dropoff for the Jays. I remember the interesting lefty DH Mike Easler for righty DH Don Baylor swap from 1986. This lefty righty 1b swap would be even more interesting. A deal like this, contingent upon an extension, actually makes sense for both teams and gives the Sox a righty masher in the middle that they need. Great idea that's truly realistic and reasonable for both sides. Sox might have to add a gpod mid tiered prospect like a Mikey Romero or Bleis to the deal, but I think a deal like this makes sense. Devers and Vlad Jr make a nice lefty righty middle of the order. Not Soto and Judge level, but still pretty damn good.I was thinking the Jays would have to add something to get Casas in a trade for Vlad. Jays have no use for Vlad except as trade bait. Casas would help them in the future. No way would I trade Casas straight up for Vlad. I would wait until Vladdy is a FA or a deadline deal if the Jays are sellers next year. Focus on Soto first if the Sox are willing to spend huge on a bat. We need impact pitching this off season, all trades should result in a deeper pitching staff. |
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,793
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Post by asm18 on Sept 28, 2024 12:52:16 GMT -5
On what basis are we entertaining that the Blue Jays would trade the face of their franchise, and to a division rival no less? I mean I’m more than happy to be threatened with a good time but…
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 28, 2024 13:00:02 GMT -5
If you guys want to make fantasy trades what you need to do is search for teams that currently have a bum penciled in to play RF next year.
I have grown fond of my Wilyer Abreu for Rhett Lowder fantasy trade.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Sept 28, 2024 16:52:01 GMT -5
On what basis are we entertaining that the Blue Jays would trade the face of their franchise, and to a division rival no less? I mean I’m more than happy to be threatened with a good time but… I assume its on the same basis that people seem to be convinced the Tigers are going to trade Skubal to the Red Sox. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 28, 2024 17:42:41 GMT -5
On what basis are we entertaining that the Blue Jays would trade the face of their franchise, and to a division rival no less? I mean I’m more than happy to be threatened with a good time but… Probably on the basis that the blue jays aren't good and won't be next year so they'd theoretically be smart to trade one year of a 1st baseman for 4 years of a first baseman. Vlad is probably better but not by all that much IMO. Then again the blue jays haven't been run very intelligently recently IMO so maybe they wouldn't even entertain it. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 28, 2024 19:51:24 GMT -5
Aaron Gleeman at the Athletic expects the Twins to cut payroll. Christian Vazquez (1/10), Chris Paddack (1/7.5) and Pablo Lopez (3/64.5) are pretty much their only options.
I am ready for us to get connected to Vazquez followed by four months of fantasizing about the prospect we would be buying by taking on his salary followed by no deal
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Post by dirtdog on Sept 28, 2024 20:43:25 GMT -5
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,793
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Post by asm18 on Sept 28, 2024 21:46:19 GMT -5
Aaron Gleeman at the Athletic expects the Twins to cut payroll. Christian Vazquez (1/10), Chris Paddack (1/7.5) and Pablo Lopez (3/64.5) are pretty much their only options. I am ready for us to get connected to Vazquez followed by four months of fantasizing about the prospect we would be buying by taking on his salary followed by no deal Wait they’re cutting payroll even more?  If the Sox need a temporary catching backup while they wait for Teel to develop, not opposed to a Christian reunion (especially if Danny Jansen signs elsewhere) - tho he is 34 and the bat is close to gone And if the Twins want to send out Lopez with Vazquez… |
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Post by sxfan on Sept 28, 2024 22:13:54 GMT -5
Aaron Gleeman at the Athletic expects the Twins to cut payroll. Christian Vazquez (1/10), Chris Paddack (1/7.5) and Pablo Lopez (3/64.5) are pretty much their only options. I am ready for us to get connected to Vazquez followed by four months of fantasizing about the prospect we would be buying by taking on his salary followed by no deal Wait they’re cutting payroll even more? If the Sox need a temporary catching backup while they wait for Teel to develop, not opposed to a Christian reunion (especially if Danny Jansen signs elsewhere) - tho he is 34 and the bat is close to gone And if the Twins want to send out Lopez with Vazquez… That would make a ton of sense if the Twins took back Giolito. The Sox take on the long-term contract of Lopez. They save 11 million in 2025 but 21 million in 2026 and 2027. Pablo Lopez is more of a sure bet than Giolito. |
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Post by kwodes on Sept 29, 2024 4:22:21 GMT -5
Aaron Gleeman at the Athletic expects the Twins to cut payroll. Christian Vazquez (1/10), Chris Paddack (1/7.5) and Pablo Lopez (3/64.5) are pretty much their only options. I am ready for us to get connected to Vazquez followed by four months of fantasizing about the prospect we would be buying by taking on his salary followed by no deal Wait they’re cutting payroll even more? If the Sox need a temporary catching backup while they wait for Teel to develop, not opposed to a Christian reunion (especially if Danny Jansen signs elsewhere) - tho he is 34 and the bat is close to gone And if the Twins want to send out Lopez with Vazquez… if this is accurate, Pablo Lopez seems like the clear target. Wouldn't cost nearly as much in a trade as most names that have been thrown out on the forum. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 29, 2024 7:33:03 GMT -5
The delusion is real for people who think Casas is on Vlad’s level or close to it. Is it possible he gets there? Sure, but there’s only 9 months separating these dudes in age and Casas hasn’t even played a full season yet and when he has played he hasn’t been as good as Vlad has. So when you’re thinking and saying that, I hope you at least admit you’re projecting forward into a world that hasn’t happened yet. I’d understand the viewpoint if they weren’t basically the same age.
Let’s also not discount that Vlad plays basically every day whereas Casas doesn’t thus far.
If you want to accept the “surplus value” game like we are a small market team then have at it just don’t complain when they perform like a small market. I’m not all about handing out massive dumb contracts but the guys you do it for are guys like Vlad who’s 25 when these are coming up. And yes, Soto too. I love me some Soto but he’ll cost more and doesn’t fit the roster as well.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Sept 29, 2024 7:38:05 GMT -5
The delusion is real for people who think Casas is on Vlad’s level or close to it. Is it possible he gets there? Sure, but there’s only 9 months separating these dudes in age and Casas hasn’t even played a full season yet and when he has played he hasn’t been as good as Vlad has. So when you’re thinking and saying that, I hope you at least admit you’re projecting forward into a world that hasn’t happened yet. I’d understand the viewpoint if they weren’t basically the same age. Let’s also not discount that Vlad plays basically every day whereas Casas doesn’t thus far. If you want to accept the “surplus value” game like we are a small market team then have at it just don’t complain when they perform like a small market. I’m not all about handing out massive dumb contracts but the guys you do it for are guys like Vlad who’s 25 when these are coming up. And yes, Soto too. I love me some Soto but he’ll cost more and doesn’t fit the roster as well. I mean, the argument is not Casas > Vlad. It’s Casas + the prospects you’d have to trade for Vlad + whoever else you’d spend that $30 million AAV on > Vlad. I honestly don’t see how it’s close. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 29, 2024 8:16:17 GMT -5
The argument is Casas plus 4 years of control for cheap vs 1 of vlad and then paying some bloated contract for a 1st baseman. At least that's my argument. I do not want to trade Casas for vlad and then pay vlad 25M+ for 7-8 years. I'm really not a fan of the idea of paying big bucks for a first baseman. It's probably the worst position in baseball to pay that to. Not to mention Vlad has two awesome years sandwiched in between solid but not spectacular years.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Sept 29, 2024 8:41:20 GMT -5
The argument is Casas plus 4 years of control for cheap vs 1 of vlad and then paying some bloated contract for a 1st baseman. At least that's my argument. I do not want to trade Casas for vlad and then pay vlad 25M+ for 7-8 years. I'm really not a fan of the idea of paying big bucks for a first baseman. It's probably the worst position in baseball to pay that to. Not to mention Vlad has two awesome years sandwiched in between solid but not spectacular years. I would not trade Casas for Vladdy either unless it were an expanded deal that brought a stud pitcher to the Sox. That is not going to happen though. I do see a roster that could include both in Boston in 2026 if in fact Vladdy can be had for 25 M in free agency. His bat is real. |
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