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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 29, 2024 8:56:39 GMT -5
Now would be the time to allocate money to first base and the biggest lineup need (RHH power) when you’re set up to have a cheap outfield, cheap middle infield and cheap catching for many years.
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Post by tjb21 on Sept 29, 2024 9:58:22 GMT -5
I was very out on Snell last offseason. Pretty in on him this offseason. No idea what to project as a contract for him. The no QO attached is an added bonus.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 29, 2024 10:26:48 GMT -5
I was very out on Snell last offseason. Pretty in on him this offseason. No idea what to project as a contract for him. The no QO attached is an added bonus. Same Snell interests me a lot this offseason. Something along the lines of the rodon contract maybe? Is that too much? Perhaps but they have money to burn and no obvious avenues to spend it other then for one of the SPs and frankly Snell could end up the best deal of them all. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 29, 2024 10:49:09 GMT -5
Why the increased interest in Snell? There's no QO this year. But one of the main concerns with him is that he's had only two seasons in his career >130 IP and in 2024 he had yet another sub-130 IP season. And now he's another year older. Another concern with him was that he didn't go deep into games and in 2024 he went even less deeply into games. (He did better with that after the all-star break though.) Not that I'd be totally against signing him. I just wonder why people like the idea more this season than last.
ADD: Geez, he has been on a ridiculous run since coming back from injury. 80 IP, 1.23 ERA, 1.77 FIP, 2.65 xFIP.
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Post by kwodes on Sept 29, 2024 10:54:38 GMT -5
Bob Nightengale reporting Cardinals will look to trade Sonny Gray in order to cut payroll. Acquiring team would have 2/65 left on the deal. Gray for Yoshida and a Dobbins type would make some sense for both sides.
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Post by taiwansox on Sept 29, 2024 10:58:59 GMT -5
Bob Nightengale reporting Cardinals will look to trade Sonny Gray in order to cut payroll. Acquiring team would have 2/65 left on the deal. Gray for Yoshida and a Dobbins type would make some sense for both sides. Didn’t he just go on the IL with right forearm issues? I’d like it, but good chance we pay for TJ… |
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Post by kwodes on Sept 29, 2024 11:16:20 GMT -5
Bob Nightengale reporting Cardinals will look to trade Sonny Gray in order to cut payroll. Acquiring team would have 2/65 left on the deal. Gray for Yoshida and a Dobbins type would make some sense for both sides. Didn’t he just go on the IL with right forearm issues? I’d like it, but good chance we pay for TJ… Did he? Idk what his injury status is. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 29, 2024 11:22:53 GMT -5
Bob Nightengale reporting Cardinals will look to trade Sonny Gray in order to cut payroll. Acquiring team would have 2/65 left on the deal. Gray for Yoshida and a Dobbins type would make some sense for both sides. Isn't that the guy who famously disliked pitching in a big high-intensity market? |
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Post by jdb on Sept 29, 2024 11:34:41 GMT -5
Aaron Gleeman at the Athletic expects the Twins to cut payroll. Christian Vazquez (1/10), Chris Paddack (1/7.5) and Pablo Lopez (3/64.5) are pretty much their only options. I am ready for us to get connected to Vazquez followed by four months of fantasizing about the prospect we would be buying by taking on his salary followed by no deal I brought up Correa in the trade forum a few weeks ago when Rosenthall suggested Bregman or Adames and move Devers across to 1B or DH. 4 years left at 33.3 AAV and would instantly make our D a strength with Story at SS and him at 3B and could hit 3rd between Devers and Casas. |
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 29, 2024 11:35:57 GMT -5
Why the increased interest in Snell? There's no QO this year. But one of the main concerns with him is that he's had only two seasons in his career >130 IP and in 2024 he had yet another sub-130 IP season. And now he's another year older. Another concern with him was that he didn't go deep into games and in 2024 he went even less deeply into games. (He did better with that after the all-star break though.) Not that I'd be totally against signing him. I just wonder why people like the idea more this season than last.
ADD: Geez, he has been on a ridiculous run since coming back from injury. 80 IP, 1.23 ERA, 1.77 FIP, 2.65 xFIP.
Mostly for me that the QO isn't involved. He's a good SP and in my broken brain should cost less than fried of burnes and he honestly may be just as good? Of course I'm terrible at gauging FA contracts so who knows? |
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Sept 29, 2024 11:36:09 GMT -5
ADD: Geez, he has been on a ridiculous run since coming back from injury. 80 IP, 1.23 ERA, 1.77 FIP, 2.65 xFIP. [/div][/quote] I almost feel like Snell is underrated at this point. The innings/health/walks are a real thing. But the dude is incredibly good. Just not sure where the sweet spot for a deal for him would be unfortunately |
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Post by tjb21 on Sept 29, 2024 11:41:21 GMT -5
I was very out on Snell last offseason. Pretty in on him this offseason. No idea what to project as a contract for him. The no QO attached is an added bonus. Same Snell interests me a lot this offseason. Something along the lines of the rodon contract maybe? Is that too much? Perhaps but they have money to burn and no obvious avenues to spend it other then for one of the SPs and frankly Snell could end up the best deal of them all. Rodon was ~2 years younger than Snell when he signed that deal. I don’t think Snell gets 6 years. My initial guesstimation was 3/~$85M and the 3rd year is some sort of weird player opt out but the team can tack on a 4th year if he does opt out. I can play in that sandbox. |
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 29, 2024 11:43:23 GMT -5
Same Snell interests me a lot this offseason. Something along the lines of the rodon contract maybe? Is that too much? Perhaps but they have money to burn and no obvious avenues to spend it other then for one of the SPs and frankly Snell could end up the best deal of them all. Rodon was ~2 years younger than Snell when he signed that deal. I don’t think Snell gets 6 years. My initial guesstimation was 3/~$90M and the 3rd year is some sort of weird player opt out but the team can tack on a 4th year if he does opt out. I can play in that sandbox. Maybe but like I said I'm bad at guessing contracts. My guess for Snell is something in the ballpark of 5 years 140M. Wouldn't love it but I'd take that plunge if I'm the sox. |
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Sept 29, 2024 11:45:52 GMT -5
Same Snell interests me a lot this offseason. Something along the lines of the rodon contract maybe? Is that too much? Perhaps but they have money to burn and no obvious avenues to spend it other then for one of the SPs and frankly Snell could end up the best deal of them all. Rodon was ~2 years younger than Snell when he signed that deal. I don’t think Snell gets 6 years. My initial guesstimation was 3/~$85M and the 3rd year is some sort of weird player opt out but the team can tack on a 4th year if he does opt out. I can play in that sandbox. If I were Craig Breslow I would be sprinting towards whatever Johnny Pencilpusher drafts up the contracts in the office to get that written up and sent to Boras Corp |
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 29, 2024 11:46:14 GMT -5
Gray had a strong year but the Cards are underwater on that deal even if his arm isn't too messed up. They backloaded his contract, only paying $10 million in year one. I wouldn't hate eating up half our space under the luxury tax on him if the deal was right.
The Athletic had a long article about how important it is for Chaim to overhaul the Cards player development system this offseason and mentioned how the major league payroll and dev ops spending all comes from the same budget. Sounds like they're letting their fans know this offseason is gonna suck for them
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Sept 29, 2024 11:49:39 GMT -5
Peter, my man - have a friend or younger relative help you proofread these things buddy
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 29, 2024 12:09:11 GMT -5
Gray had a strong year but the Cards are underwater on that deal even if his arm isn't too messed up. They backloaded his contract, only paying $10 million in year one. I wouldn't hate eating up half our space under the luxury tax on him if the deal was right.
The Athletic had a long article about how important it is for Chaim to overhaul the Cards player development system this offseason and mentioned how the major league payroll and dev ops spending all comes from the same budget. Sounds like they're letting their fans know this offseason is gonna suck for them
Seems like that was the same budget situation for Chaim with the Red Sox. I’m really curious how much the dev ops stuff actually costs. I’ve always assumed it was peanuts in comparison to the MLB payroll, but team behavior suggests it’s pretty substantial. |
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Sept 29, 2024 12:19:19 GMT -5
Gray had a strong year but the Cards are underwater on that deal even if his arm isn't too messed up. They backloaded his contract, only paying $10 million in year one. I wouldn't hate eating up half our space under the luxury tax on him if the deal was right.
The Athletic had a long article about how important it is for Chaim to overhaul the Cards player development system this offseason and mentioned how the major league payroll and dev ops spending all comes from the same budget. Sounds like they're letting their fans know this offseason is gonna suck for them
Nolan Arenado AAV by year 2025 - 21 mil (age 34) 2026 - 16 mil (age 35) 2027 - 15 mil (age 36) End of contract His spray chart laced on Fenway is… quite nice (Yes it will never happen. But man I love Arenado) |
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 29, 2024 12:19:33 GMT -5
The delusion is real for people who think Casas is on Vlad’s level or close to it. Is it possible he gets there? Sure, but there’s only 9 months separating these dudes in age and Casas hasn’t even played a full season yet and when he has played he hasn’t been as good as Vlad has. So when you’re thinking and saying that, I hope you at least admit you’re projecting forward into a world that hasn’t happened yet. I’d understand the viewpoint if they weren’t basically the same age. Let’s also not discount that Vlad plays basically every day whereas Casas doesn’t thus far. If you want to accept the “surplus value” game like we are a small market team then have at it just don’t complain when they perform like a small market. I’m not all about handing out massive dumb contracts but the guys you do it for are guys like Vlad who’s 25 when these are coming up. And yes, Soto too. I love me some Soto but he’ll cost more and doesn’t fit the roster as well. Rjp313jr, wrote-you’re projecting forward into a world that hasn’t happened yet. This is redundant. It's simply called forecasting. To suggest he can be a top 10 hitter in the league is anything but delusional as in his rookie season from after May he was a top ten hitter in the league. All that is besides the point, I'd rather they focus their monetary assets towards an ace. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 29, 2024 12:45:48 GMT -5
Casas is hitting .272/.368/.507, 136 wRC+ since May 1, 2023. That includes all but the first 187 PAs of his career.
Excluding the first ~187 PAs of his career, Vlad Guerrero Jr. is hitting .290/.365/.504, 139 wRC+.
They're doppelgangers. Except one is going to make like $28 million in their one year of team control and the other is going to make league minimum in the first of four years of team control.
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Post by abrinker on Sept 29, 2024 13:06:31 GMT -5
Gray had a strong year but the Cards are underwater on that deal even if his arm isn't too messed up. They backloaded his contract, only paying $10 million in year one. I wouldn't hate eating up half our space under the luxury tax on him if the deal was right.
The Athletic had a long article about how important it is for Chaim to overhaul the Cards player development system this offseason and mentioned how the major league payroll and dev ops spending all comes from the same budget. Sounds like they're letting their fans know this offseason is gonna suck for them
I agree that Gray would be an interesting option, but he's probably not going to give up his no trade option for nothing. My guess is he's gonna want to convert the club option into a player option in order to agree to a trade, essentially making the remaining contract 3/95M and further depressing his trade value, especially considering those will be his age 35-37 seasons. His forearm issues (even if it's tendinitis and scans indicated no structural issues) are also a big red flag. The Cardinals are going to have to kick in a ton of cash to make a trade palatable. Is there a potential match with STL for Yoshida? Possibly. The Cardinals ranked near the bottom in DH production, as well as vs RHP in general. Maybe there's a chance to swap contracts, but STL would have to sweeten the deal significantly, and if payroll savings is the key driver, their only viable currency to offload either Gray's or Arenado's contracts is prospect capital. And it would have to be a meaningful prospect to balance the scales. Could we find a way to get Matthews in a swap? Net impact for Sox would be +$14 AAV (but even higher in cash terms) over three years. I'm not sure, even with Matthews as a kicker (surely STL wouldn't do that), that trade off is worth it. Plus, I'm not sure Gray wants to go back to a high-pressure large market team again, anyway. |
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Post by ephus on Sept 30, 2024 10:25:47 GMT -5
A bullpen with Fulmer, Penrod, Guerreo, Slaten, Whitlock and Hendriks can be elite.
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Post by coke0myfavdrink on Sept 30, 2024 11:00:01 GMT -5
A bullpen with Fulmer, Penrod, Guerreo, Slaten, Whitlock and Hendriks can be elite. I would love this bullpen especially if martin and Jansen came back that would make it pretty cora proof |
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Post by melvinhoggs on Sept 30, 2024 11:21:10 GMT -5
Casas is hitting .272/.368/.507, 136 wRC+ since May 1, 2023. That includes all but the first 187 PAs of his career. Excluding the first ~187 PAs of his career, Vlad Guerrero Jr. is hitting .290/.365/.504, 139 wRC+. They're doppelgangers. Except one is going to make like $28 million in their one year of team control and the other is going to make league minimum in the first of four years of team control. Vlad has proven himself to have a significantly higher ceiling at the MLB level so far. His wRC+ in the time frame you listed is dragged down by a mediocre 2023, during which he also underperformed his xwOBA by 40 points and ran a BABIP 25 points under his career average. You're also shaving off a way higher percentage of Casas's career by nixing 180 PAs because he's played so much less. You say "that includes all but the first 187 PAs of his career," but Casas only has 840 PAs – you're literally chopping off over 20% of his career. Vlad has two seasons where his xwOBA was over 400. He strikes out almost half as often. Oh, and he's also posted ~700 PAs in four consecutive seasons. I love Casas. I don't want to lose him. He is not Vlad's doppelganger. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 30, 2024 11:22:44 GMT -5
A bullpen with Fulmer, Penrod, Guerreo, Slaten, Whitlock and Hendriks can be elite. Elite? I see 3 guys who didnt really pitch in 24, whom I would have no idea what to expect. Penrod is kind of unknown and Guerrero has a history of control issues which he was able to avoid in a 10 inning sample size, but would he be able to on a much larger sample size? Slaten was pretty damn good in 2024. But I look at the bullpen and see possibilities but I dont see elite. I think the pen needs an established right handed set up man and a primary lefty reliever they can rely on. I think the pen needs work. If Breslow makes no significant additions to the pen and leaves it as is, I dont think he is doing his job. |
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