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Predicting The 2025 Opening Day Roster
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Post by puzzler on Sept 30, 2024 12:04:51 GMT -5
A bullpen with Fulmer, Penrod, Guerreo, Slaten, Whitlock and Hendriks can be elite. Elite? I see 3 guys who didnt really pitch in 24, whom I would have no idea what to expect. Penrod is kind of unknown and Guerrero has a history of control issues which he was able to avoid in a 10 inning sample size, but would he be able to on a much larger sample size? Slaten was pretty damn good in 2024. But I look at the bullpen and see possibilities but I dont see elite. I think the pen needs an established right set up man and a primary lefty reliever they can rely on. I think the pen needs work. If Breslow makes no significant additions to the pen and leaves it as is, I dont think he is doing his job. I agree that list is not elite; or even close to elite. I like Slaten a lot and I think he should compete with Hendriks for the closers role; but I'm not convinced yet that he even is one. And Hendriks really shouldn't be relied on - he could easily be done at this point. I'm not saying he is; I'm just saying that's a possibility. So I'd be looking to bring in another person to compete for the closers job and I'd resign Martin. There aren't really any dominant lefty relievers available in FA, so I think they may be stuck picking from what they have. |
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,172 
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Post by jimoh on Sept 30, 2024 12:17:09 GMT -5
Casas is hitting .272/.368/.507, 136 wRC+ since May 1, 2023. That includes all but the first 187 PAs of his career. Excluding the first ~187 PAs of his career, Vlad Guerrero Jr. is hitting .290/.365/.504, 139 wRC+. They're doppelgangers. Except one is going to make like $28 million in their one year of team control and the other is going to make league minimum in the first of four years of team control. His wRC+ in the time frame you listed is dragged down by a mediocre 2023, during which he also underperformed his xwOBA by 40 points and ran a BABIP 25 points under his career average. You're also shaving off a way higher percentage of Casas's career by nixing 180 PAs because he's played so much less. You say "that includes all but the first 187 PAs of his career," but Casas only has 840 PAs – you're literally chopping off over 20% of his career. Vlad has two seasons where his xwOBA was over 400. He strikes out almost half as often. Oh, and he's also posted ~700 PAs in four consecutive seasons. I love Casas. I don't want to lose him. He is not Vlad's doppelganger. Yes, I hate it when people compare the career stats of two players, one of whom was a good but not brilliant major leaguer at age 20, one who had his first full season at age 23. |
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Post by melvinhoggs on Sept 30, 2024 12:43:53 GMT -5
Vlad has proven himself to have a significantly higher ceiling at the MLB level so far.His wRC+ in the time frame you listed is dragged down by a mediocre 2023, during which he also underperformed his xwOBA by 40 points and ran a BABIP 25 points under his career average. You're also shaving off a way higher percentage of Casas's career by nixing 180 PAs because he's played so much less. You say "that includes all but the first 187 PAs of his career," but Casas only has 840 PAs – you're literally chopping off over 20% of his career. Vlad has two seasons where his xwOBA was over 400. He strikes out almost half as often. Oh, and he's also posted ~700 PAs in four consecutive seasons. I love Casas. I don't want to lose him. He is not Vlad's doppelganger. Yes, I hate it when people compare the career stats of two players, one of whom was a good but not brilliant major leaguer at age 20, one who had his first full season at age 23. I'm not sure what you're trying to say – I'm not the one who was comparing the two of them to begin with?
I think it's a bad comparison in a lot of ways. I was pointing out that you have to seriously fudge the stats to make Vlad and Casas's production look similar.
"If we remove 22% of Casas's worst at bats but only 5% of Vlads, ignore expected stats, ignore the ability to stay on the field and ignore pedigree – they're doppelgangers" is not a strong argument, in my eyes. That Vlad made his debut at 20 only furthers the idea that they swim in different waters. At a year younger than Casas was putting up his first full season, Vlad posted a 6-WAR year.
If you want to say you'd rather have Casas going forward because he gives you 75% of the production (or whatever number you want to put on it) for 5% of the price – cool, I agree with you! But I'm not buying at all that they've been secretly identical hitters.
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 30, 2024 13:20:32 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 30, 2024 13:35:48 GMT -5
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,172
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Post by jimoh on Sept 30, 2024 13:44:00 GMT -5
Duran CF
Grissom/Hamilton 2b
Devers 3b
Casas 1b
Campbell LF (ideally moving to #4 later)
Story SS
Anthony RF/DH
Abreu/Ref/whoever DH/RF
Wong/X C
additional bench: Rafaela
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Post by bosoxkc on Sept 30, 2024 14:19:30 GMT -5
Duran LF
Hamilton 2B (until Campbell)
TON DH
Devers 3B
Casas 1B
Story SS
Anthony RF
Kelly or other C (until Teel)
Rafaela CF
Backup C
Refsnyder
Sogard
RH 1B
Fried
Trade for #2 (Abreu, Bleis, Romero, Meidroth)
Houck
Giolito
Bello
2 top relievers (trade Crawford, Winkowski,Valdez)
Martin
Scott
Hendricks
Slaten
Criswell
Boozer
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 30, 2024 14:35:09 GMT -5
I subjected myself to that entire press conference and I don't think there was anything I would call news.
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Post by sxfan on Sept 30, 2024 15:38:22 GMT -5
I subjected myself to that entire press conference and I don't think there was anything I would call news. I think the dismissal of the Devers off third base question was very telling. They had a chance to shut it down completely and tell everyone that he's the third baseman moving forward. Instead, they said they'd discuss it internally. They talked about improving the defense a lot in this press conference, which is a great sign. This needs to be a point of emphasis moving forward especially with the infield. A full year from Story helps, but the whole infield as a whole. |
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Post by dirtdog on Sept 30, 2024 15:40:20 GMT -5
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Post by ephus on Sept 30, 2024 17:54:20 GMT -5
The only quote from today’s press conference that matters: “Talk ls cheap, words are hollow.” -Sam Kennedy
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 30, 2024 20:33:15 GMT -5
Casas is hitting .272/.368/.507, 136 wRC+ since May 1, 2023. That includes all but the first 187 PAs of his career. Excluding the first ~187 PAs of his career, Vlad Guerrero Jr. is hitting .290/.365/.504, 139 wRC+. They're doppelgangers. Except one is going to make like $28 million in their one year of team control and the other is going to make league minimum in the first of four years of team control. Vlad has proven himself to have a significantly higher ceiling at the MLB level so far. His wRC+ in the time frame you listed is dragged down by a mediocre 2023, during which he also underperformed his xwOBA by 40 points and ran a BABIP 25 points under his career average. You're also shaving off a way higher percentage of Casas's career by nixing 180 PAs because he's played so much less. You say "that includes all but the first 187 PAs of his career," but Casas only has 840 PAs – you're literally chopping off over 20% of his career. Vlad has two seasons where his xwOBA was over 400. He strikes out almost half as often. Oh, and he's also posted ~700 PAs in four consecutive seasons. I love Casas. I don't want to lose him. He is not Vlad's doppelganger. If ever there is a time to cherry pick it would be the first at-bats of anyones career, I'd say it's the exception to the rule. That part established there is nothing wrong with looking at his last 4 months of his rookie year and believe he's likely that batter with even more upside. Ted Williams, 'don't judge a batter until he's had a 1,000 at bats in the majors still rings true today. You say not to exclude Casas at bats but then you hilight Vlads peak. That certainly appears to be a contradiction on your part. Here is the rub, Casas will be league minimum for several years and Vlad's making alot more money, the team despite key batters missing significant time including Casas himself was still a good offensive team, in fact we should expect improvements without any additions other than our own young players ascending toward their prime or in the midst of their prime and several stud prospects allowing us to trade assets. |
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Post by dirtdog on Sept 30, 2024 21:14:00 GMT -5
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 30, 2024 22:02:57 GMT -5
Hey Tyler, sit down. Great to see you. We'd love to have you back - say, hypothetically, if we offered you 1 year/$21 million, would you accept that?
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Sept 30, 2024 22:26:52 GMT -5
If I had my way:
C: Wong & defensively minded FA backup (Teel up mid season; FA C released)
1B: Christian Walker (3 yrs/$62 mil)
2B: Hamilton & Grissom
SS: Story
3B: Devers
RF: Anthony
CF: Rafaela
LF: Soto (13 yrs/$600 mil, some
$$$ deferred)
DH: O’Neill (accepts QO)
Bench: Hamilton/Grissom, FA backup C, Gonzalez, FA 4th OF
SP1: George Kirby (Casas & Duran traded; extension signed)
SP2: Luis Castillo (Casas & Duran traded)
SP3: Houck (extension signed)
SP4: Bello
SP5: Giolitto
Longman/spot starter: Priester
CL1: Slaten (extension signed)
SU1/CL2: Hendriks
SU2: Martin
Rest of bullpen:
Chris Murphy or Booser
Guerrero or Weissert
Whitlock
Michael Fullmer
Traded in offseason as package pieces or for prospect depth/salary relief: Crawford, Yoshida, Abreu & Valdez
Hamilton traded mid season to make room for Mayer and Story slots who will slot over 2B and Grissom takes IF utility role. Grissom traded mid season as well to make room for Campbell if necessary.
And yes, I’m aware that (1) this is entirely dependent on *IF* Giolitto, Whitlock, Murphy & Hendriks are healthy and have a full spring training; (2) that it’s entirely dependent on Henry opening the wallet for Soto (plus Walker & Castillo to an extent); and (3) will never happen in the first place cause Henry is poor and Cora loves Duran too much.
EDIT: Mayer & Campbell potentially play @ 3B mid season w/ eyes on having Raffy move to full time DH in 2026.
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Post by johnnygooch on Sept 30, 2024 22:54:24 GMT -5
Obvious trade partners this offseason seem to look like the Mariners and White Sox, but also with the announcement that the Cardinals and Twins are cutting payroll, it opens up some options with them as well. If the Twins are desperate to cut costs, I would think we would have to be interested in checking on a few guys that would make sense for us there.
Pablo Lopez's three years left at $21.75M per year would be interesting, and depending on how desperate they are, probably wouldn't cost us much. Jhoan Duran is about to hit his first year of arbitration, and if we gave the Twins a decent return and paid all of Lopez's contract, could probably be available as well. Another (sure to be less popular) interesting option could be seeing if Byron Buxton is available to us. $100M over 7 years isn't bad at all, and while he is ridiculously injury prone, we have just proven with Tyler O'Neill that if we prioritize an injury ridden player's health and training we can keep them on the field and producing. When healthy he is a game changer, and his righty bat would help balance out the top of the lineup.
Again, probably won't be a very popular post here, but considering the expectation that this offseason is going to be filled with trades by our front office, it's worth thinking about. Also, you could use this same logic with the White Sox and Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert, however I think Crochet's market is going to go crazy once offers start coming in. Sonny Gray being shopped by the Cardinals, but I do not like that. Obviously Luis Castillo is another option, I'd also love if Andres Munoz was a part of that deal as well.
Pairing these moves with a Duran / Wilyer trade for another starter (George Kirby) to free up space in the outfield for Anthony and Buxton:
C: Wong/Teel R/L
1B: Casas L
2B: Campbell R
SS: Story R
3B: Devers L
RF: Anthony L
CF: Rafaela R
LF: Buxton R
DH: Yoshida L
Bench:
Refsnyder, Hamilton, Grissom
Rotation:
1: Kirby
2: Houck
3: Lopez
4: Bello
5: Giolito
Pen:
Weissert
Whitlock
Penrod
LHRP Acquisition (AJ Minter?)
Guerrero
Slaten
Hendriks
Jhoan Duran
Depth:
Priester, Fitts, Gonzalez
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samb
Rookie
Posts: 13
Member is Online
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Post by samb on Sept 30, 2024 23:02:22 GMT -5
If we are going above the luxury tax, having oneil back sounds great. Maybe even flip Yoshida for Sunny Gray
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Post by incandenza on Sept 30, 2024 23:06:50 GMT -5
This team's weaknesses were defense and plate discipline. Starting pitching was a relative strength. And like every proposed trade in this thread is trying to ship out a good defender or hitter with great plate discipline for a starting pitcher.
And they can just get pitching in free agency anyway.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Oct 1, 2024 0:47:30 GMT -5
The more I look at this team, the more I’m convinced that the right move is to sign Soto for whatever he wants. His approach is badly needed, and the team needs a serious jolt - he could provide it.
C - Wong/FA backup
1B - Casas
2B - Grissom
3B - Devers
SS - Story
LF - Soto
CF - Duran
RF - Rafaela
DH - O’Neill
Trade Abreu for either a starter pitcher that you think can take a step forward next year, or an elite reliever.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,793
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Post by asm18 on Oct 1, 2024 1:21:26 GMT -5
The more I look at this team, the more I’m convinced that the right move is to sign Soto for whatever he wants. His approach is badly needed, and the team needs a serious jolt - he could provide it. C - Wong/FA backup 1B - Casas 2B - Grissom 3B - Devers SS - Story LF - Soto CF - Duran RF - Rafaela DH - O’Neill Trade Abreu for either a starter pitcher that you think can take a step forward next year, or an elite reliever. You had me at “sign Soto” Do ya’ll reckon they’ve had or will have internal conversations about him, or is the price tag (450 mil? 500 mil? More?) making that a no-go from the start |
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Post by keninten on Oct 1, 2024 2:03:46 GMT -5
Obvious trade partners this offseason seem to look like the Mariners and White Sox, but also with the announcement that the Cardinals and Twins are cutting payroll, it opens up some options with them as well. If the Twins are desperate to cut costs, I would think we would have to be interested in checking on a few guys that would make sense for us there. Pablo Lopez's three years left at $21.75M per year would be interesting, and depending on how desperate they are, probably wouldn't cost us much. Jhoan Duran is about to hit his first year of arbitration, and if we gave the Twins a decent return and paid all of Lopez's contract, could probably be available as well. Another (sure to be less popular) interesting option could be seeing if Byron Buxton is available to us. $100M over 7 years isn't bad at all, and while he is ridiculously injury prone, we have just proven with Tyler O'Neill that if we prioritize an injury ridden player's health and training we can keep them on the field and producing. When healthy he is a game changer, and his righty bat would help balance out the top of the lineup. Again, probably won't be a very popular post here, but considering the expectation that this offseason is going to be filled with trades by our front office, it's worth thinking about. Also, you could use this same logic with the White Sox and Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert, however I think Crochet's market is going to go crazy once offers start coming in. Sonny Gray being shopped by the Cardinals, but I do not like that. Obviously Luis Castillo is another option, I'd also love if Andres Munoz was a part of that deal as well. Pairing these moves with a Duran / Wilyer trade for another starter (George Kirby) to free up space in the outfield for Anthony and Buxton: C: Wong/Teel R/L 1B: Casas L 2B: Campbell R SS: Story R 3B: Devers L RF: Anthony L CF: Rafaela R LF: Buxton R DH: Yoshida L Bench: Refsnyder, Hamilton, Grissom Rotation: 1: Kirby 2: Houck 3: Lopez 4: Bello 5: Giolito Pen: Weissert Whitlock Penrod LHRP Acquisition (AJ Minter?) Guerrero Slaten Hendriks Jhoan Duran Depth: Priester, Fitts, Gonzalez I don`t know where to begin. I`ll just touch on who you`re giving up for all this talent. Duran/Wilyer are going for Kirby. Who are you giving up for Lopez, Duran, and Buxton? I like Sonny Gray for Masa. St. Louis saves a few mil a year plus the Sox could pay some of Masa`s salary down. It`s the offseason, good of you to shoot from the hip. I`m as interested with the discussions on here as I am with the playoffs. |
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Post by keninten on Oct 1, 2024 2:04:53 GMT -5
The more I look at this team, the more I’m convinced that the right move is to sign Soto for whatever he wants. His approach is badly needed, and the team needs a serious jolt - he could provide it. C - Wong/FA backup 1B - Casas 2B - Grissom 3B - Devers SS - Story LF - Soto CF - Duran RF - Rafaela DH - O’Neill Trade Abreu for either a starter pitcher that you think can take a step forward next year, or an elite reliever. You had me at “sign Soto” Do ya’ll reckon they’ve had or will have internal conversations about him, or is the price tag (450 mil? 500 mil? More?) making that a no-go from the start I`m sure they dream too. |
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Oct 1, 2024 7:18:46 GMT -5
Still working my way through a full projection in my head, but I'm beginning to think Alex Bregman would be a really interesting addition. This of course would imply that the Red Sox have resigned themselves to moving Devers to DH where he is (theoretically) more likely to stay healthy throughout a full season. Yoshida would not be on the roster in this timeline.
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badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 492
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Post by badfishnbc on Oct 1, 2024 7:36:05 GMT -5
I’m still reeling in the cognitive dissonance of Sam Kennedy’s comments, especially since he lambasted the team in May for underachieving.
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Post by scottysmalls on Oct 1, 2024 7:55:25 GMT -5
I can’t believe how many Duran trades are proposed here. He was the 7th best position player in baseball and did it in what looks like a relatively sustainable way. It’s hard to improve the team if you trade by far the best player on it. And in none of the proposals is he going for a player even as good as him it’s all for starting pitchers almost as good. If you wanna tell me there’s a Henderson or Witt deal to be had sure, otherwise Duran goes nowhere.
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