Predicting The 2025 Opening Day Roster

My reasons for bringing up Bregman are:

1. It's a way to better balance the lineup (which Breslow mentioned he was interested in)
2. It's a way to improve the infield defense (which Breslow mentioned he was interested in)
3. Coming off a down year, he still put up 4+ WAR and would not command a huge financial commitment.
4. It helps to preserve Devers' health.
5. Fenway could help his swing. Not so much for HRs, but probably for extra base hits. I'm trying to find spray charts.

His Baseball Savant page perplexes me. It seems like he has a down year (by statcast metrics) once every 4 years or so, but some of his metrics are still red hot.

I agree with most of what you have.  There's two things that concern me though - one is he will be 31 before next season starts and the second is why his walk rate plummeted. He basically replaces O'Neill and provides a great deal better defense.  But then there is the contract.  He's going to require at least what Chapman got - 6 years - $150 million. That doesn't bother me too much from 31-33 - but then it's concerning from 34-36. 

FWIW, drawing on my knowledge as a Bregman fantasy owner, he had a brutal start then figured it out. Playing the arbitrary endpoints game...

Before 5/28: 220 PA, .206/.273/.317, 4 HR
After 5/28: 414 PA, .288/.338/.524, 22 HR

If they're going after any high priced RHH FA infielders my preference would be Adames not Bregman but I don't really see either of them happening. Theoretically could sign Adames, move Story to 2nd and then have Mayer available to trade for pitching. Then when Campbell is ready maybe you move Story over to 3rd.

There's certainly uncertainly.  

But I think the 2025 pitching staff (and bullpen certainly) will be a matter of collecting arms and seeing who sticks through spring training.  I think we have a ton more controllable high-minors depth than we did last year, when coming out of ST, Joely made the club, Joe Jacques was called up for a bit, and nobody knew if Criswell could hack a single emergency call-up start.

Rotation Depth (in very rough order as it stands right now):

Giolito, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Criswell.  Then: Winckowski, Priester, Fitts.


Bullpen Depth (same):

Hendriks, Slaten, Winckowski, Weissert, Kelley, Booser, Bernardino, Campbell. Then Shugart, Guerrero, Penrod, Mata.  Or mix and match depending to your taste. 


Midseason Maybes: Murphy, Whitlock. 


So I look at all that and don't see a ton of work that has to happen.  A single FA starting pitcher pushes Criswell into the backup role and makes Crawford/Bello the #5.  A single high end bullpen arm has you dropping Bernardino/Campbell/whomever, and gives you a late-innings cluster of Hendriks/Slaten/New Guy/Hot-hand.

If we acquire a pair of arms (I don't really care who - that's not the point of this post) that's a very good staff, depth-wise.  Because it's almost a very good staff right now.  If we acquire three, we're really cooking with gas.  

If we run into some injuries (as we did last year), I am 100% more comfortable with Criswell/Priester/Fitts in AAA as depth starters.  (Or even with one in the pen if it works out that way.)  I am 100% more comfortable with Guerrero, Penrod, Shugart, and Campbell (or whomever) in AAA as depth bullpen arms.  Let alone the plus of Murphy/Whitlock returning without being rushed to the majors.  

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Now all that is not to say that I wouldn't be very happy if the stars aligned and we added those additional plus pieces to the rotation and bullpen.  Maybe some guys get shipped out in trades, and I'm not committed to any particular player staying.  

But I think we should take a moment to consider what Breslow has to work with as a starting point.  It looks good.  

Where we are right now is so much better than where we were last year at this point.  We're not wondering whether Houck, Bello, and Crawford can be the core of a rotation.  We're not wondering whether Fitts will eventually congeal into a credible ML starter.  We're not wondering who is out there beside Fitts (Criswell/Priester).  We're not wondering if Booser's or Guerrero's or Penrod's stuff can play in the major leagues.  We have a lot more "He's a totally acceptable option" players instead of "man, I really hope that guy isn't going to be a human gas-can."  

(One thing I'm also personally not wondering about is Giolito.  I think he's going to have a great year with Bailey.  But reasonable minds can disagree there.)

Next year there's a decent chance the mouth-breather WEEI take will be, "Well, now they're good because they spent more $ in FA."  But the in-system player gap between October of 2024 and October of 2024 is night and day.  

Stars get traded when their team expects to be noncompetitive for the duration of their contract and once in a while when a team wants to reduce payroll and that's about it. You just never see a trade like Duran for Skubal or whatever. So you may be right that the team would be better off executing such a deal but I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for it.

Honestly, not to mock your idea in particular, for a Soto signing would be an unexpected surprise, but I sometimes read these pet scenarios and think "why not just go whole hog and just do all of 'em?"

1. Rafaela (CF) - Because I just can't ever trade a sub 90 OPS+ CF as long as there's one hi-light catch I can retweet to my friends every couple of weeks.  And we'll so be able to carry his bat when we sign Soto.  And Rafaela can play every position.  So there's that - depth, my friends, depth.

2. Soto (LF) - Not my money. And the bat is needed if we're to keep Rafaela.  

3. Campbell (3B) - Let it not be said I'm anti-prospect.  Depth will be Rafaela, Devers, and Justin Turner (see below.)

4. Devers (DH) - Yoshida is made the ball-boy.  Not my money.

5. Guerreo (1B) - That weirdo Casas will traded to the Jays along with Sam Kennedy and Breslow giving their Jays counterparts a voucher for 5 free shirtless carwashes at a time of their choosing. 

6. Seminan (2B) - Grissom, Mayer, Valdez traded to TEX, which totally clears up the 2B message-board debate.  Yay!  (In fact, I'll throw in Hamilton as well, because really, are any of them that good?)

7. A Platoon of FA's O'Neill, Duvall, and Justin Freaking Turner Baby! (RF).  It will scratch that aging-white-guy greatest-hit hitters itch. . .and it's not my money.  

8. Story (SS) - Because I'm enough of a realist to also insist that Henry is way too cheap to eat his contract.  And I want you to take this seriously.  

9. Salvador Perez (C) - Wong goes to KCR, and we'll throw in Teel, just to make sure it really happens. Arias too. Because there's no such thing as a prospect, suckers!  And really, if we're in, we're in.  There's no point dancing around and waiting on guys.  Because the FA market is always there - every year.  (It's like none of the owners and GMs realize that. So weird.)

And then we sign that Kim guy from SD (who was just there waiting to be traded for a bag of balls over the last 3 years) to be our backup UT MI, along with Justin Turner.  And that Kim guy will love that role. Love it. Because money talks, and he'll just be grateful to be given the opportunity to play part-time on my team for the Awesome City of Boston.

Now that's a freaking lineup am I right?

AND (this is the best part).  We can trade Duran and Abreu and Montgomery to SEA for one of their starters.  I really don't care which one, but everyone says they're all awesome.  So - let's see them say "no" now!  (And the jokes on them because Duran's legs are going to give out on him in 3 or 4 years!  And Montomery's already have!  Is no one thinking about that?)

Now.  Who wants to spend a long time discussing how awesome a GM I'd be?  

Anyone?  

I can give you Salvador Perez's splits if it will help your worries about handedness.

I'd place the likelihood of them trading Duran this offseason well below 1%.

They're not going to pretend he's a stock and cash him in.

Cora looks at him as a leader in that clubhouse, as an example for the youngsters coming up of what they can achieve even if they have to overcome initial struggles. He also played every day that he wasnt suspended.

Cora works in lockstep with Breslow. I'm not saying Breslow needs Cora's permission to make a move, but I'm willing to bet the Cora's opinion matters. I dont think that was the case with Bloom and Cora, but I think theres a cohesiveness between Cora and Breslow and Frankly I doubt either one of them would give much thought to entertaining a deal that sends away their most electrifying dynamic and durable player.

Abreu is likely a goner. If they can get something kind of useful and some salary relief, Yoshida is a goner.

I doubt Casas would get dealt at this point, but I'd place the odds of that as less than 10%.

If they trade a top prospect away for pitching Mayer is the most likely to go. I'd put those odds as more 1 out of 3 or less.

More likely the Sox try to land the next Lugo or Eflin in free agency and spend the money to do so with a bit more urgency. I dont expect Burnes, Fried, Snell, or Eovaldi. If I had to guess, maybe they chase Luis Severino.

The other good possibility is that they use Abreu and lesser prospects like a Romero, J. Garcia or Bleis or Cespedes to trade for a starter.

Or maybe Abreu goes for a young controllable established high leverage reliever.

Sounds like plan A is to bring back O'Neill.

Failing that, maybe they dump Yoshida and bring in a fading Goldschmidt as a RH DH bat and Casas injury insurance for a year and save up for when Vladdy Jr when he hits free agency.

I could see Vladdy in free agency after next year, but I dont realistically see them seriously chasing Soto this offseason unfortunately.

I know - Soto would be a great sign, depending on the contract.  

However, I don't think they're moving Devers off 3rd while he's still in his 20s.  

I’m breaking out the 10 foot pole to give to Breslow.

I would not go anywhere near Bregman. Between his age and the contract he'll be looking for he just doesn't make sense. As was mentioned above, if they are dead set on getting an impact righty bat I'd much rather Adames. But ultimately I'm with a few posters above. Shell out the money and sign Juan Soto. I don't care that he is a lefty. He's heading into his age 26 season and is a better hitter than Vlad Jr. He also comes with the added bonus of being available now and signing him away from the yankees would send a massive blow to their roster. The biggest mistake the sox could make in free agency this offseason is signing more mid/ mid + tier guys to above mid tier contracts ie Story and Yoshida. Their top 2 free agent targets should be Soto and Tanner Scott. Get your middle of the order superstar bat and your closer/back end lefty. Then turn to the trade market for a top of the rotation starter.