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Predicting The 2025 Opening Day Roster
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 23, 2024 14:20:15 GMT -5
have you watched the team for the last half decade Yes, which is why it behooves the Red Sox not to do what you're suggesting again. Once you start down the path to the dark side, forever will it dominate your destiny. And anchor is apt, as in the one that drags your boat to the bottom of the sea so that you have to start all over again from scratch. Oh, thanks for letting me know that contracts carry risk. I’ll let the Phillies, Padres, Dodgers, and Yankees know. I’m sure they’ll gladly bow out of the playoffs in honor of the $/WAR efficiency standings. I mean, come on. This is a ridiculous thing to say. I’ve been as big an ownership apologist as you’ll find over the past few years, you can’t really do much about your farm system sucking and your big contracts going belly-up. But that doesn’t mean you never try again. In five year’s time, the CBT threshold is likely to be well over $250 million. They’ve invested tons of resources into building one of the best player development machines in baseball. By the time the Big 4 are hitting arbitration, Trevor Story’s money will be off the books. They’re set up to manage that contract as well as any team in baseball, and there won’t be a free agent less likely to flop than Soto for a very long time. What flexibility are you giving up? The flexibility to pay Alex Bregman and Nick Pivetta $43 million for 5 combined WAR per season (at best)? Been there, done that. I don’t need to see them take another shot at “value” signings, only to go 83-79 and finish just outside of the playoffs. The third most valuable franchise in baseball, with the highest operating income, can do better than that. I think you need to brush up on your nautical metaphors, too. The anchor sinks to the bottom of the sea, to prevent the ship from drifting too far off course. If the anchor is bringing the ship down with it, then there are much bigger issues at hand. |
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 23, 2024 14:26:55 GMT -5
I laugh whenever folks seem to ignore the fact the Sox gave Devers the 2nd most guaranteed dollars ever to a 3rd baseman which was #1 at the time before the Padres gave Machado that likely ill advised extension.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 23, 2024 14:52:58 GMT -5
have you watched the team for the last half decade Just to be clear, you're saying that they don't need a superstar and your reference point for that is the era after they traded Mookie Betts away? I don't know what Soto's price is going to be, and there are obviously 29 other teams and one guy who is going to have a say in this, but the idea that the last few years have shown that the Red Sox don't need a superstar seems very off. The problem with the 2023 team was very specifically that they had okay players all over the field and zero great ones (or at least zero players having great seasons). |
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 23, 2024 15:13:00 GMT -5
have you watched the team for the last half decade Just to be clear, you're saying that they don't need a superstar and your reference point for that is the era after they traded Mookie Betts away? I don't know what Soto's price is going to be, and there are obviously 29 other teams and one guy who is going to have a say in this, but the idea that the last few years have shown that the Red Sox don't need a superstar seems very off. The problem with the 2023 team was very specifically that they had okay players all over the field and zero great ones (or at least zero players having great seasons). Guessing you meant to reply to puzzler, but I’m saying the exact opposite. They have been missing that kind of elite-of-the-elite talent since the Mookie trade. Just like you said, they have all the bones of a very, very good team right now, but they’re still missing that level of player that can be relied on to keep the runs coming in when the rest of the lineup is struggling. Hoping that a prospect turns into an Hall of Famer or that another one will fall into their lap seems far too passive to me. Especially with all the work they’ve done to build up the player development machine while smoothing out the books. |
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Post by johnnygooch on Sept 23, 2024 16:11:23 GMT -5
The Red Sox should be in on Juan Soto, however I think most of us have accepted that there is a near-zero percent chance that we pry him away from New York after this season. If we want a superstar to pair with Raffy I think we should focus on Vlad Jr. THAT would be the new version of the Papi and Manny duo for the next 10 years. I'm not a fan of getting rid of Casas but if it's for Vlad I would accept it happily.
It also seems like an inevitability that the front office looks to offload Yoshida's contract in the next few months, which saddens me as I absolutely love him, but their refusal to play him in LF and crop of outfielders coming soon makes it seem very likely. If Casas' immense value with 4 years of control and Yoshida with a portion of his contract paid by us is enough to get Toronto to trade Vlad in-division then I don't think it's a horrible idea (pending an extension).
FSG's extreme concern with the perception of themselves and the Red Sox as an organization will influence a lot of the decisions they make this offseason. If Wilyer wins a gold glove this year and places in the top 3 of ROY voting I don't think ownership will want the PR of trading him, and with Duran's media issues and amazing season leading into arbitration, I believe they will be more motivated to move him in a trade for a starter. Again, I'd much rather keep Duran, but I just think this is more likely. A Duran for George Kirby swap would make a lot of sense for both sides. I don't like any of the Mariner's starters home/road splits besides Woo's, but Kirby is allergic to walks and has already made a great impression on Boston by his awesome knuckleball tributes to Wake. I would also love Garrett Crochet but his market is going to be absolutely nuts and I could easily see him going to the Dodgers or Orioles in a trade this offseason.
With Casas, Yoshida, and Duran going out by trade and Vlad Jr. and George Kirby coming in, there's still a spot in the top of the rotation, which would hopefully be filled by signing Max Fried. His profile fits well with us (as long as our infield defense improves), and it'd be nice to insert a lefty into the rotation. The rest of the moves for the offseason I'd hope would be bullpen rebuilding, some combination of Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, AJ Minter, and Jose Leclerc maybe.
Rotation:
1. Fried
2. Houck
3. Kirby
4. Bello
5. Giolito
Pen:
Whitlock
Weissert
Minter
Penrod
Guerrero
Slaten
Hendriks
Yates/Scott
Lineup (without any Teel/Campbell/Anthony promotions):
1. Hamilton 2B
2. Vlad Jr 1B
3. Raffy 3B
4. Wilyer RF
5. Story SS
6. Refsnyder LF
7. Grissom DH
8. Wong C
9. Rafaela CF
Bench:
Meidroth, Romy, [Catcher Acquisition], and Sogard
Hoping that Teel, Campbell, and Anthony are promoted early on in the season (maybe out of Spring Training?):
1. Anthony LF
2. Vlad Jr 1B
3. Raffy 3B
4. Wilyer RF
5. Story SS
6. [Rotating spot] DH
7. Campbell 2B
8. Teel C
9. Rafaela CF
Bench:
Meidroth, Romy/Sogard, Refsnyder, Wong, Hamilton
The hope would be that Anthony forces his way up early and DH becomes a rotating spot for one of the corner infielders and outfielders to get a day off of fielding.
Putting a lot of hopes on our prospects but it seems like that's the path this front office has chosen to go down going forward.
All this being said I would be ecstatic if we actually made a run at Soto haha.
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Sept 23, 2024 16:40:04 GMT -5
If Casas' immense value with 4 years of control and Yoshida with a portion of his contract paid by us is enough to get Toronto to trade Vlad in-division then I don't think it's a horrible idea (pending an extension). . (Ron Howard voice). It was a horrible idea. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 23, 2024 17:08:59 GMT -5
Not to go full chaimtime here, but there are two relevant precedents in the last couple of seasons for the kind of free agent Soto is going to be - namely, a very young one:
- Devers was going to enter free agency right around his 27th birthday. The Red Sox gave him $330 million not to do so. - Yamamoto entered the market at age 25. The Red Sox were clearly very into him, and may or may not have offered him $300 million.
Maybe the Red Sox won't sign Soto. Probably the Red Sox won't sign Soto. But "that's just not the sort of thing the Red Sox would ever do" is a terrible reason to think they won't sign Soto.
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dcb26
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Post by dcb26 on Sept 23, 2024 17:13:19 GMT -5
Not to go full chaimtime here, but there are two relevant precedents in the last couple of seasons for the kind of free agent Soto is going to be - namely, a very young one: - Devers was going to enter free agency right around his 27th birthday. The Red Sox gave him $330 million not to do so. - Yamamoto entered the market at age 25. The Red Sox were clearly very into him, and may or may not have offered him $300 million. Maybe the Red Sox won't sign Soto. Probably the Red Sox won't sign Soto. But "that's just not the sort of thing the Red Sox would ever do" is a terrible reason to think they won't sign Soto.
/s |
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Post by pappyman99 on Sept 23, 2024 17:19:00 GMT -5
I think Soto for 500 million only makes sense if it’s for 10 years. I rather condense it and he be what 35 or 36when the contract ends?
I’m for adding Soto,
A world does exist where Duran is traded
I think Yoshida is definitely traded if Soto is the goal
I think a lot of redundancy is traded as well between AA and the MLB
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Post by johnnygooch on Sept 23, 2024 17:56:03 GMT -5
If Casas' immense value with 4 years of control and Yoshida with a portion of his contract paid by us is enough to get Toronto to trade Vlad in-division then I don't think it's a horrible idea (pending an extension). . (Ron Howard voice). It was a horrible idea. Like I said, pending an extension. If there's no extension and it was just for the one year of Vlad, then yes it would be a horrible idea. However, if you do get an extension done with him, then you are trading a first baseman who: - has 4 years of cheap control - is 24 years old - is left handed - has a track record of injuries going back to the minors - is good defensively (in my opinion) - has shown in the majority of a major league season that he can put up top ten offensive numbers when right For Vlad who: - is 25 years old - is going to be on an expensive long term extension - is right handed - has played in nearly every single game since he came up in 2019 - is bad defensively - has shown in multiple seasons now that he can put up MVP level offensive production when right After April and May (the mark that everyone points to when talking about his great season last year), Casas had a 155 wRC+ through 85 games. Vlad is only a year older than him and has already had two full seasons where he's been over 160 wRC+ (his MVP runner-up 2021 was 166, and this year it's 168). Sox fans have been begging for a star and Vlad Jr is a star who would pair amazingly well with Raffy at the top of the lineup. He would also help to balance out a roster which is only going to get more left handed as Mayer, Teel, and Anthony make it up to the majors. The main problem would be getting him within the division and convincing him to forego free agency for an extension. Doubting whether or not we could get a trade or extension done in the first place is fair, and so is critiquing the allocation of that chunk of payroll to a first baseman. But why just write off the idea of Vlad in Boston because we would have to give up our own first baseman who has the potential to be as good as him if healthy? |
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Post by jdb on Sept 23, 2024 18:08:36 GMT -5
I think the absolute floor for Soto is probably 14 years at $40M . That’s essentially Judges contract going until he’s 39-40 and $560M overall. With some of the big markets poking around I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get $600M.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 23, 2024 18:12:35 GMT -5
I think the absolute floor for Soto is probably 14 years at $40M . That’s essentially Judges contract going until he’s 39-40 and $560M overall. With some of the big markets poking around I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get $600M. About what I'm thinking. I assume it'll include significant deferrals in the idea of ohtanis contract to keep the AAV manageable. Very interested to see what happens with Soto's deal. |
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 23, 2024 18:32:39 GMT -5
Not to go full chaimtime here, but there are two relevant precedents in the last couple of seasons for the kind of free agent Soto is going to be - namely, a very young one:
- Devers was going to enter free agency right around his 27th birthday. The Red Sox gave him $330 million not to do so. - Yamamoto entered the market at age 25. The Red Sox were clearly very into him, and may or may not have offered him $300 million.
Maybe the Red Sox won't sign Soto. Probably the Red Sox won't sign Soto. But "that's just not the sort of thing the Red Sox would ever do" is a terrible reason to think they won't sign Soto.
Yeah, I know I’m being kind of annoying about it, but I just find the way people act like it’ll never happen, and you’re stupid for thinking it’d ever happen or was even a good idea in the first place to be very grating. Probably just flashbacks to the “Ohtani doesn’t help this team, they don’t need another lefty DH” talk last year. I genuinely don’t understand how someone could watch this team put up a dozen uncompetitive at bats a game all throughout the second half and conclude that a guy who will take a walk or hit the ball hard in two out of every three plate appearances would not have a transformational impact on the lineup. |
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Sept 23, 2024 18:43:19 GMT -5
(Ron Howard voice). It was a horrible idea. Like I said, pending an extension. If there's no extension and it was just for the one year of Vlad, then yes it would be a horrible idea. However, if you do get an extension done with him... But that's the thing, you essentially would be overpaying trading for one year and then likely overpaying market value to convince him to bypass free agency. Is that worth 4 years of Casas? |
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Post by keninten on Sept 23, 2024 19:37:26 GMT -5
I wouldn`t trade Casas straight up for Vlad Jr.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 23, 2024 19:41:43 GMT -5
Not loving the rationale of trading 4 years of casas for Guerrero and paying him probably 25-30M a year when Casas probably doesn't even make 30M combined over that 4 years of control. If they want Guerrero just go sign him next year because I don't see him signing an extension with TOR.
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Post by keninten on Sept 23, 2024 20:13:55 GMT -5
The TON thread is starting to drift into SP. Was going to post their but I`ll go here instead. The 2 SP I`m most interested in is Flaherty and Manaea. Sasaki if available.
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Sept 23, 2024 20:58:00 GMT -5
Not loving the rationale of trading 4 years of casas for Guerrero and paying him probably 25-30M a year when Casas probably doesn't even make 30M combined over that 4 years of control. If they want Guerrero just go sign him next year because I don't see him signing an extension with TOR. The whole point of developing young cost-controlled talent is to play it, and use the savings to augment the team elsewhere. You can't do that if you convert it on a player-by-player basis into market-rate talent. |
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Post by bosoxnation on Sept 23, 2024 21:12:18 GMT -5
The fact people think we will get Soto. LMFAO I'm sorry to hear this. You appear to have wandered too close to a voracious Blind Sox-Nation Spender-vocator. While this creature looks somewhat similar to the Vanishingly Unlikely Traderist, and also makes an unending droning noise, it is in fact a different animal, a recent invasive species best identified through phrases it spouts like: "It's not my money" and "We can deal with it later." The good news is that your ass can be surgically reattached if you pack it in ice and get to an emergency room within 24 hours. hahahaha omg seek mental help. We have Yoshida, Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony in the OF. 5 starting OFs. To go out and sign a free agent outfielder from the divison leaders who will be willing to spend probably 600 million seems Ludacris. I know we will spend money. I guarantee it's not a contract like that on at our deepest position. it would make more sense to re up TO for pennies on the dollar and sign SP which you know is our BIGGEST need. You can sign Flahery Fried Bieber low risk option type deal can take over for Gio after next year TO All for less then Soto and actually improve the team. |
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Post by nelledouville on Sept 23, 2024 21:16:10 GMT -5
We have a team that is recently adverse to giving huge contracts. We have a team with 4 highly touted players on the cusp of the major leagues, two of whom can play in the outfield. We have a team with an excellent center fielder and a decent right fielder, plus another who stuggles with hitting but is a joy to watch in the field. We have a team with an all-star third baseman, and a first baseman who could have a breakout season if healthy.
This team is not going to sign Soto. This team is not going to try and sign Soto.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 23, 2024 21:26:39 GMT -5
Please remember that our moderators are volunteers with their own lives who can't always clean out the horse manure in real time. Help us all out by not feeding the obvious trolls.
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Post by sxfan on Sept 23, 2024 22:13:01 GMT -5
I know who I don't want going into 2025. The non-tender/free agent list I don't want back is very long-
Brendan Bernardino
Isaiah Campbell
Bailey Horn
Chris Murphy (possibly brought back on minor league deal)
Bryan Mata (same as Murphy, but less likely)
Chase Shugart
Nick Sogard
Emanuel Valdez (hoping he gets traded before non tender deadline for anything)
Free agents I don't want back-
Kenley Jansen
Chris Martin
Luis Garcia
Lucas Sims
Nick Pivetta
Free agents that could be back-
Tyler O'Neil (if he accepts QO)
Danny Jansen (would like back, but won't go into bidding war for him).
That's 14 players off the 40 man I'm cleaning house with if I'm Breslow. I don't think Kenley is a good idea. His age scares the crap out of me and didn't make it to the end of the year. Chris Martin is just as old. I could be talked to Lucas Sims coming back for cheap, but not stretching at all for him.
The Sox should have plenty of room to add multiple players this off-season.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 23, 2024 22:40:45 GMT -5
Soto is so good the roster fit is irrelevant. 8 WAR players in their 20s don’t reach free agency every year. If you can bring him on you can move other players to make the roster work. None of them are or will be as good as Soto.
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 23, 2024 22:53:56 GMT -5
Not loving the rationale of trading 4 years of casas for Guerrero and paying him probably 25-30M a year when Casas probably doesn't even make 30M combined over that 4 years of control. If they want Guerrero just go sign him next year because I don't see him signing an extension with TOR. I think your 10M off on the AAV of Vlady. Something like 12y 450M. . Unless Catostrofic injury or the market completely reset i cant inagine less than 32M per. Probably closer to 40. Also, if the jays look to trade vlad that means a full rebiuld. I think there interest would more be in Anthony, campbell and Mayer and not Casas |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 23, 2024 23:03:07 GMT -5
I doubt the Yankees let a generational player like Soto get away and if they botch that, the Mets wont let him slip thru.
But say the Sox go out and sign Soto. That would be a helluva feat.
The more I think about it, I'd still hang onto the Big 4.
I'd go with an OF of Soto/Duran/Anthony and use Rafaela as the utility guy that some envision him as although if he helped them get a pretty good pitcher as part of a deal, then I'd trade him.
But the point is as left handed as they slant, that wouldnt be a concern.
A potential issue is that if Devers' shoulder is messed up then he could be restricted to DH duties for an unknown amount of time.
If Devers winds up a DH before his time then Soto would have to stay in LF, but then again I dont think he'd be any worse than Manny ever was.
I think if/when the Sox dont get Soto, but think Devers can eventually go back to 3b and seek a RH bopper, I do think in those scenarios, Vlad Jr does become a possibility. I could see the Sox going there if it came to it and my feeling is that Vlad would like to be a Red Sox.
We'll see.
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