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Predicting The 2025 Opening Day Roster
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Sept 24, 2024 19:49:47 GMT -5
I doubt the Yankees let a generational player like Soto get away and if they botch that, the Mets wont let him slip thru. But say the Sox go out and sign Soto. That would be a helluva feat. The more I think about it, I'd still hang onto the Big 4. I'd go with an OF of Soto/Duran/Anthony and use Rafaela as the utility guy that some envision him as although if he helped them get a pretty good pitcher as part of a deal, then I'd trade him. But the point is as left handed as they slant, that wouldnt be a concern. A potential issue is that if Devers' shoulder is messed up then he could be restricted to DH duties for an unknown amount of time.If Devers winds up a DH before his time then Soto would have to stay in LF, but then again I dont think he'd be any worse than Manny ever was. I think if/when the Sox dont get Soto, but think Devers can eventually go back to 3b and seek a RH bopper, I do think in those scenarios, Vlad Jr does become a possibility. I could see the Sox going there if it came to it and my feeling is that Vlad would like to be a Red Sox. We'll see. What about Devers to 1B? I`ve always just assumed he would eventually move there. Of course if the shoulder is so messed up he can`t throw at all, he would be the DH. I'm just curious - has there ever been a player whose shoulder was so messed up they couldn't throw, but they were still an effective DH? People keep repeating this and I have no idea where it's coming from. |
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Post by carmenfanzone on Sept 24, 2024 20:25:06 GMT -5
First thing that comes to mind is Scott Hatteburg not being able to throw anymore so the A's signed him and switched him to first base. I am not sure it was his shoulder that prevented him from throwing but I know it was his arm.
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Sept 25, 2024 3:12:12 GMT -5
First thing that comes to mind is Scott Hatteburg not being able to throw anymore so the A's signed him and switched him to first base. I am not sure it was his shoulder that prevented him from throwing but I know it was his arm. Yep, that might seem similar at first, but that was an elbow injury. |
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Post by rkarp on Sept 25, 2024 5:44:54 GMT -5
no one can dispute the strides both Houck and Bello made this season. do they have a similar jump in performance next season?
what does a healthy Whitlock, Murphy and Fullmer bring to the pen?
what does a healthy Gio bring to the rotation
does Pivetta return?
what can Fitts and Sandlin bring next season?
having Duran-Ceddane-Anthony left to right next season and Story/Campbell up the middle makes this defense much better next year. what effect does that have on the staff?
the team has depth with Romy, Sogard, Hamilton, Sogard, Meidroth, Abreu, Rob Refs.
the team still has huge upside coming with Meyer, Teel, Montgomery, Arias, Bleiss, Cespedes, Tolle, Romero, Perales over the next 6 months to 3 years.
the team is a couple of pitchers away. they have some assets to move and money to spend.
health and some luck in their decisions.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 25, 2024 8:09:01 GMT -5
I get that Duran has a lot of WAR, I like Duran and my preference would be to keep him. But no one can honestly tell me that if the shoe were on the other foot, they'd trade away the value that would be in line with a 7 WAR player per year and 4 years of control if Said player literally tripled his best season ever. I don't think anyone out there would deny Duran is a good player, and probably even his biggest haters have raised their perception of who he is, and what his floor is, but it's fair to point out that this might also be his best season ever. My prefence is sign. But if people expect a trade for a top of the roation starter you're dealing someone like Duran, Casas, or at a minimum two of your top 4 plus more prospects. That's just the price of admission. This certainly might be the best season he ever has, but the combination of speed, defense, and hitting makes you into a WAR monster. If he's healthy he should comfortably get above 4 WAR for at least a few more seasons just because he adds value in all parts of the game.
Meanwhile, only 10 pitchers in MLB have accumulated 4+ fWAR this season. Only 3 have 5+ WAR. None have matched Duran't 6.7.
Meanwhile also: here are the numbers of 3+ WAR pitchers for all of the best teams in the AL:
Yankees - 1 Guardians - 1 Orioles - 1 Astros - 2
The Red Sox have 1. They don't so desperately *need* to add more top pitchers to hang with the best teams; certainly not if the price is giving away their best player.
I completely agree. Durans best season before this year was 2.5 Fwar. I think he's definitively distanced himself as a better player than that, I just don't think it's fair to say that he's a 7 War player this year and teams will project him as thus out. If that were true, then hypothetically teams like KC, Seattle and Detroit would have to add players to Skubal/Ragans/Kirby/Gilbert to pry Duran away from us. I do not believe that would be the case. I don't want to paint myself into the corner as the guy dying on a hill for Duran to be traded, I was responding to the conversation. I like Duran, and my personal preference is to buy pitchers. But Duran is the type of player you put together to get elite pitching. As Ian said in the last podcast, "it's going to hurt". That hurt can come in other forms, it could be giving up Casas+ It could be giving up a prospect package that take two of Mayer/Anthony/Teel/Campbell+ or it could come in the form of grotesquely overpaying someone like Corbin Burnes. I don't know what the cost of admission will be, and I hope it's not Duran because I agree. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 25, 2024 9:24:07 GMT -5
This certainly might be the best season he ever has, but the combination of speed, defense, and hitting makes you into a WAR monster. If he's healthy he should comfortably get above 4 WAR for at least a few more seasons just because he adds value in all parts of the game.
Meanwhile, only 10 pitchers in MLB have accumulated 4+ fWAR this season. Only 3 have 5+ WAR. None have matched Duran't 6.7.
Meanwhile also: here are the numbers of 3+ WAR pitchers for all of the best teams in the AL:
Yankees - 1 Guardians - 1 Orioles - 1 Astros - 2
The Red Sox have 1. They don't so desperately *need* to add more top pitchers to hang with the best teams; certainly not if the price is giving away their best player.
I completely agree. Durans best season before this year was 2.5 Fwar. I think he's definitively distanced himself as a better player than that, I just don't think it's fair to say that he's a 7 War player this year and teams will project him as thus out. If that were true, then hypothetically teams like KC, Seattle and Detroit would have to add players to Skubal/Ragans/Kirby/Gilbert to pry Duran away from us. I do not believe that would be the case. I don't want to paint myself into the corner as the guy dying on a hill for Duran to be traded, I was responding to the conversation. I like Duran, and my personal preference is to buy pitchers. But Duran is the type of player you put together to get elite pitching. As Ian said in the last podcast, "it's going to hurt". That hurt can come in other forms, it could be giving up Casas+ It could be giving up a prospect package that take two of Mayer/Anthony/Teel/Campbell+ or it could come in the form of grotesquely overpaying someone like Corbin Burnes. I don't know what the cost of admission will be, and I hope it's not Duran because I agree. That was in like 100 games though. His bat has been roughly as good the past two seasons, it's his massive improvement defensively that has driven his WAR increase this year from what I can tell anyway. I think Duran should easily project to be a 4.5-5 WAR over 150 games a year type of player assuming his defensive improvements don't just vanish. |
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Post by puzzler on Sept 25, 2024 10:42:22 GMT -5
Duran is the best trade chip they have, but for me, I'm not entertaining trading the guy who has played the most games, plays harder than anyone else on the team and through it all has probably been the most consistent offensive/defensive performer they have. It just doesn't make sense. It would be a major subtraction beyond just the overall statistics to the point that it isn't even worth entertaining.
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pd
Veteran
Posts: 327 
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Post by pd on Sept 25, 2024 11:52:45 GMT -5
Duran is the best trade chip they have, but for me, I'm not entertaining trading the guy who has played the most games, plays harder than anyone else on the team and through it all has probably been the most consistent offensive/defensive performer they have. It just doesn't make sense. It would be a major subtraction beyond just the overall statistics to the point that it isn't even worth entertaining. Yup. Sends a poor message imo to trade a guy who has busted his butt all year. Not to mention his productivity. |
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Post by ephus on Sept 25, 2024 12:19:10 GMT -5
Duran is the best trade chip they have, but for me, I'm not entertaining trading the guy who has played the most games, plays harder than anyone else on the team and through it all has probably been the most consistent offensive/defensive performer they have. It just doesn't make sense. It would be a major subtraction beyond just the overall statistics to the point that it isn't even worth entertaining. Also leadoff guys who bat .285, lead the league in doubles and triples and are under team control until after 2028 don't fall off trees. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 25, 2024 12:33:37 GMT -5
You know, I really think it would be totally fine if the Red Sox didn't trade away any of their best players or prospects. I like having those guys!
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Post by bmoneyproblemz on Sept 25, 2024 12:59:54 GMT -5
You know, I really think it would be totally fine if the Red Sox didn't trade away any of their best players or prospects. I like having those guys! The problem becomes the following: - We are thinking that these will be the Red Sox from 2003-2018. It has been proven that these Sox are gone, and we need to be shown that they are ok with spending again. So I don't believe we will be getting Fried/Burnes/Snell/whoever else. So by this logic, the only way to receive starting pitching is drafting and trading. - We have a glut in the outfield. Only 3 guys can play and we are left-handed heavy. If we can trade a player from our glut and then receive a player who can help the team improve in an area of need, that is great. - Our pitching down on the farm is ok. But if you really look, its a lot of guys who are probably #4-#5 starters. Perales has the highest ceiling but is coming off an injury. Tolle is most likely 2-3 years away and is the only lefty starter in the top 20 (no, Penrod isn't starting). The Sox need to start making painful decisions to compete. No, I don't think any of the big 4 will be traded. But trading Duran or Abreu? I don't see why not. Trading anyone else in the top 10 should also be on the table. So unless they go out and sign 2 free agents pitchers, some of the guys we like are not going to be here next year. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 25, 2024 13:07:34 GMT -5
You know, I really think it would be totally fine if the Red Sox didn't trade away any of their best players or prospects. I like having those guys! The problem becomes the following: - We are thinking that these will be the Red Sox from 2003-2018. It has been proven that these Sox are gone, and we need to be shown that they are ok with spending again. So I don't believe we will be getting Fried/Burnes/Snell/whoever else. So by this logic, the only way to receive starting pitching is drafting and trading. Devers Yamamoto blah blah whatever
I love Five-Tool Willy, but I have to admit that he is the one guy right in the sweet spot of a) presumably having a lot of trade value, and b) being fairly redundant for this roster going forward. Hamilton maybe, too, though I would really like to keep him as a complementary piece.
Trading Duran, though? Getting rid of easily their best player this season because they have a logjam in the outfield? Who is under cost-controlled team control for four more years? This is just really overthinking it.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 25, 2024 13:25:33 GMT -5
The problem becomes the following: - We are thinking that these will be the Red Sox from 2003-2018. It has been proven that these Sox are gone, and we need to be shown that they are ok with spending again. So I don't believe we will be getting Fried/Burnes/Snell/whoever else. So by this logic, the only way to receive starting pitching is drafting and trading. - We have a glut in the outfield. Only 3 guys can play and we are left-handed heavy. If we can trade a player from our glut and then receive a player who can help the team improve in an area of need, that is great. - Our pitching down on the farm is ok. But if you really look, its a lot of guys who are probably #4-#5 starters. Perales has the highest ceiling but is coming off an injury. Tolle is most likely 2-3 years away and is the only lefty starter in the top 20 (no, Penrod isn't starting). The Sox need to start making painful decisions to compete. No, I don't think any of the big 4 will be traded. But trading Duran or Abreu? I don't see why not. Trading anyone else in the top 10 should also be on the table. So unless they go out and sign 2 free agents pitchers, some of the guys we like are not going to be here next year. Both the year-end payroll, and the CBT payroll, has been higher each of the past 3 years (2022-2024) than in any year in that timespan aside from 2018 (was even higher in 2019). Ownership doesn't seem to want to go over the CBT unless they know they have a good team, but they are always willing to spend just under that number. There's no sign that this has changed. |
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Post by dcb26 on Sept 25, 2024 13:59:28 GMT -5
Trading Duran, though? Getting rid of easily their best player this season because they have a logjam in the outfield? Who is under cost-controlled team control for four more years? This is just really overthinking it. I'm definitely against trading away the outfielders too (at least until there's a better picture of what they have next year) but this argument is just becoming "They shouldn't trade good players because then they won't have good players" which ignores both the context and (hopefully) that the players they got back would be good players, too. If there was, for example, a chain of moves that involved signing Soto to play LF, playing Rafaela in CF, and trading Duran for a top starter, I would probably do it: You probably lose 3.5ish WAR in switching Duran for Rafaela, and gain 6+ish WAR (Soto) and 3+ WAR (acquired pitcher vs current #5) for the cost of Soto's contract. The obvious similar alternatives would be to still sign Soto, play Duran in CF, and do whatever with Rafaela, but then you still have to spend some additional money if you want to upgrade the rotation at all, and one way or another you're likely losing value with Rafaela; Or don't bother with Soto and simply spend the money on one of the top FA starters, but then you're spending almost as much money for likely more risk and lower WAR return. Not trying to say this specific scenario is likely - signing Soto is not likely, just to start - but I think there are (non-ridiculous) circumstances where you have to entertain the possibility of trading Duran, same as any of the others. |
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Post by johnnygooch on Sept 25, 2024 14:02:27 GMT -5
Kind of off-topic from what has been going on in here, but what would you want a potential early extension to look like for Roman Anthony?
Jackson Chourio got $82m / 8 years with 2 club options before playing a game in the majors, Corbin Carroll got $111m / 8 years with 1 club option after playing around 30 games in the majors.
Would you rather us wait to consider an extension until after he's debuted, try to lock him up before he debuts next year, or just let him play out his rookie contract a bit before approaching him for an extension?
Same question could be asked about Campbell, although I'd liken that more to the Ezequiel Tovar and Rafaela extensions.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 25, 2024 14:54:38 GMT -5
For those saying you wouldn't trade anyone, what's your 2026 lineup when, presumably, all of Campbell, Mayer, and Anthony are ready?
They have to move SOMEONE. Right now they stand to have all of Story, Mayer, Grissom, Devers, Casas, and Campbell until 2027. In the OF its Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony, and maybe Campbell until 2028. Yoshida until 2027. That's 11 guys for 8 spots (catcher can take care of itself, hence the omission).
They HAVE to trade guys if the prospects pan out. It would be a gross misuse of resources not to. The question is who and when.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 25, 2024 15:34:54 GMT -5
For those saying you wouldn't trade anyone, what's your 2026 lineup when, presumably, all of Campbell, Mayer, and Anthony are ready? They have to move SOMEONE. Right now they stand to have all of Story, Mayer, Grissom, Devers, Casas, and Campbell until 2027. In the OF its Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony, and maybe Campbell until 2028. Yoshida until 2027. That's 11 guys for 8 spots (catcher can take care of itself, hence the omission). They HAVE to trade guys if the prospects pan out. It would be a gross misuse of resources not to. The question is who and when. I don't think anyone said this? But I think I came closest to saying this when I said they didn't have to trade any of their best players or top prospects this offseason (since this thread is about opening day 2025, not 2026). I then went on to say that trading Abreu or Hamilton could make some sense.
For the record, I would consider all of these guys potentially tradeable:
Abreu Hamilton Rafaela Yoshida Grissom Valdez Story
And, you know, never say never about anyone. Like dcb26's scenario of signing Soto and then trading Duran is not crazy to me. Mostly I am just taking issue with vague calls to deal Duran or Casas for pitching, without specifying which pitcher anyone even has in mind.
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Post by GyIantosca on Sept 25, 2024 16:06:46 GMT -5
You have to try to move Yoshida.
I'm personally hoping one or two kids break with the team to start the year. I'm also hoping Breslow spends money on some pitching. I would be open to moving one or two of these kids but not give them away they are cost controlled. I look at that 40 man list its pretty eye opening.
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Post by kwodes on Sept 25, 2024 16:09:49 GMT -5
For those saying you wouldn't trade anyone, what's your 2026 lineup when, presumably, all of Campbell, Mayer, and Anthony are ready? They have to move SOMEONE. Right now they stand to have all of Story, Mayer, Grissom, Devers, Casas, and Campbell until 2027. In the OF its Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony, and maybe Campbell until 2028. Yoshida until 2027. That's 11 guys for 8 spots (catcher can take care of itself, hence the omission). They HAVE to trade guys if the prospects pan out. It would be a gross misuse of resources not to. The question is who and when. I don't think anyone said this? But I think I came closest to saying this when I said they didn't have to trade any of their best players or top prospects this offseason (since this thread is about opening day 2025, not 2026). I then went on to say that trading Abreu or Hamilton could make some sense.
For the record, I would consider all of these guys potentially tradeable:
Abreu Hamilton Rafaela Yoshida Grissom Valdez Story
And, you know, never say never about anyone. Like dcb26's scenario of signing Soto and then trading Duran is not crazy to me. Mostly I am just taking issue with vague calls to deal Duran or Casas for pitching, without specifying which pitcher anyone even has in mind.
Duran would be low on my list of guys to trade, but I'd trade him if we got Skubal back. Casas/Abreu to Seattle or Miami for one of those guys would be a fit as well |
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 25, 2024 16:14:41 GMT -5
I don't think anyone said this? But I think I came closest to saying this when I said they didn't have to trade any of their best players or top prospects this offseason (since this thread is about opening day 2025, not 2026). I then went on to say that trading Abreu or Hamilton could make some sense.
For the record, I would consider all of these guys potentially tradeable:
Abreu Hamilton Rafaela Yoshida Grissom Valdez Story
And, you know, never say never about anyone. Like dcb26's scenario of signing Soto and then trading Duran is not crazy to me. Mostly I am just taking issue with vague calls to deal Duran or Casas for pitching, without specifying which pitcher anyone even has in mind.
Duran would be low on my list of guys to trade, but I'd trade him if we got Skubal back. Casas/Abreu to Seattle or Miami for one of those guys would be a fit as well Who on the Marlins is worth Casas or even Abreu for that matter? All their SPs either under performed this year or are hurt. Not seeing any deal with either one of those guys that makes sense with them. Sure I'd buy low on Alcantara or Luzardo but the package would not include any ML talent or any of the big 4 so I doubt that Miami would bite on that. Mariners on the other hand, they could make sense. |
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Post by kwodes on Sept 25, 2024 16:49:26 GMT -5
Duran would be low on my list of guys to trade, but I'd trade him if we got Skubal back. Casas/Abreu to Seattle or Miami for one of those guys would be a fit as well Who on the Marlins is worth Casas or even Abreu for that matter? All their SPs either under performed this year or are hurt. Not seeing any deal with either one of those guys that makes sense with them. Sure I'd buy low on Alcantara or Luzardo but the package would not include any ML talent or any of the big 4 so I doubt that Miami would bite on that. Mariners on the other hand, they could make sense. I'd do Eury for Casas, but they could also try and do like Casas for luzardo and white/Meyer. I like Garrett too. Just not for Casas or Abreu. Maybe Garrett and white/Meyer for abreu. Mariners would be choose your own adventure lol. I'd also try and get a good reliever from Seattle with a starter. |
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Sept 25, 2024 17:54:31 GMT -5
Given the Tigers hot run, I think the Tigers trading Skubal is close to zero.
I also think getting into a bidding war for Burnes and Fried is immensely unwise. I much rather give $600m to Soto, sign Christian Walker to a 3 year deal and trade Duran, Casas & Abreu for top tier pitching. Maybe the grandfather of all deals for Kirby/Gilbert and Castillo?
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Post by pappyman99 on Sept 25, 2024 18:39:15 GMT -5
For those saying you wouldn't trade anyone, what's your 2026 lineup when, presumably, all of Campbell, Mayer, and Anthony are ready? They have to move SOMEONE. Right now they stand to have all of Story, Mayer, Grissom, Devers, Casas, and Campbell until 2027. In the OF its Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony, and maybe Campbell until 2028. Yoshida until 2027. That's 11 guys for 8 spots (catcher can take care of itself, hence the omission). They HAVE to trade guys if the prospects pan out. It would be a gross misuse of resources not to. The question is who and when. To me it’s Duran. 1. He isn’t exactly an extension candidate given the age he will be when he reaches FA 2. In all likelihood this is his peak value bets season ever 3. His player type has fallen off that map in production past the age of 30. 4. Anthony looks very legit and close, Abreu is younger and good in RF and we know Rafaela is a defensive wizard in CF 5. Most importantly he can get us something really good in an area or more need |
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 25, 2024 18:45:52 GMT -5
I for the life of me cannot understand any argument how trading Duran, a guy who has easily been the best player on the team, is in his prime and has 4 more cost controlled years would make the 2025-2028 red sox a better team.
Not going to keep interjecting that thought so that's where I'll leave that. To each their own I guess.
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Post by finaliz3d on Sept 25, 2024 19:08:58 GMT -5
I think you can trade Duran, but we better be getting a king's ransom. I have been on the trade Abreu train for a bit, and that hasn't changed. I think Abreu with his team control will get you a a decent return.
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