|
|
Post by finaliz3d on Sept 20, 2024 22:29:45 GMT -5
So wait, Devers who has had shoulder problems all season, had another issue before the game and they decided to play through it today...? I'm sure the medical people are highly skilled and know better that I do, but this just seems like a really dumb idea... atleast it looks like he's being shut down. Do the Red Sox add anyone new to the 40 or do they just not bother? |
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 20, 2024 22:30:38 GMT -5
I'm not buying the just struggling part. Maybe Devers wasn't leveling with Cora but I don't buy it. It's a shame that Campbell has a minor lat issue, we could have seen his debut. |
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 20, 2024 22:34:16 GMT -5
i crashed, then they crashed. Tough L, but its Friday Night.
|
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 20, 2024 22:35:24 GMT -5
One positive - Richard Fitts. Pencil him in as a starter next year. Bello, Houck, Fitts, Crawford. We just need a #1.
More - Guerrero looks like he belongs. Winck, Weissert, Sims all looked good.
Story looks like he is finding his swing. Jarren had a pretty good game. That's about it.
|
|
|
|
Post by finaliz3d on Sept 20, 2024 22:37:28 GMT -5
I'm not buying the just struggling part. Maybe Devers wasn't leveling with Cora but I don't buy it. It's a shame that Campbell has a minor lat issue, we could have seen his debut. I'd love to see Meidroth but he hasn't been playing the field due to an injury as well... Gasper the only position player not in the majors on the 40. If Devers is shut down and put on the 60-day you could open a spot on the 40 for someone new, but what position player do you add that you would consider keeping on the 40 across the offseason? Could put a guy like Westbrook in and just DFA him again I suppose, but idk. What I would do, although it's honestly not going to happen, but I'd call Anthony up to give him a taste (probably just bench O'Neill or Rafalea when you need to... it doesn't make sense to add him to the 40 haphazardly, but it would be fun so that's why I suggested it... also there's like, nobody else healthy who's interesting there. |
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 20, 2024 22:51:44 GMT -5
Playoff chance 0.1%. That's all, folks!
|
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Sept 20, 2024 22:58:05 GMT -5
This month sucks but I feel like Fitts having a 0.00 ERA and insane Stuff+ ratings in the majors is a pretty big development. I was totally out on this guy 6 weeks ago
|
|
|
|
Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 20, 2024 23:10:16 GMT -5
I'm minor lat issue, we could have seen his debut. I'd lov . If Devers is shut down and put on the 60-day you could open a spot on the 40 for someone new, but what position player do you add that you would consider keeping on the 40 across the offseason? Could put a guy like Westbrook in and just DFA him again I suppose, but idk. Dalbec plays 3B, but that ain't happening this weekend. |
|
|
|
Post by rhswanzey on Sept 20, 2024 23:23:49 GMT -5
What’s the average exit velocity on a grounder to the right side to get a runner from second to third with no outs
What’s the average exit velocity on a sacrifice fly
Is there any way to still optimize the modern under the hood stuff, but like, maybe not throw away a hundred years of baseball fundamentals through the 10-15 years of the youth circuit and minor league development
Like, I appreciate that impacting the baseball and swing and miss stuff makes it less hard for a player or a pitcher to win a matchup, so that all has to be selected for to at least some significant degree
But if nothing matters except for that, then there’s selection bias and a lot of pretty decent players get discarded, and pretty soon the league is full of several teams like this one that cannot advance runners and cannot adapt its swing decisions and swing ferocity to literally just put the ball in play based on base/out/leverage situation
How many times does a team win that game if it strikes out ten times instead of twenty. Ninety percent of the time? Ninety five?
|
|
|
|
Post by taiwansox on Sept 20, 2024 23:30:57 GMT -5
Twins after this game lol
|
|
|
|
Post by RedSoxStats on Sept 20, 2024 23:47:13 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by Darwin's Curve on Sept 21, 2024 5:54:02 GMT -5
What’s the average exit velocity on a grounder to the right side to get a runner from second to third with no outs What’s the average exit velocity on a sacrifice fly Is there any way to still optimize the modern under the hood stuff, but like, maybe not throw away a hundred years of baseball fundamentals through the 10-15 years of the youth circuit and minor league development Like, I appreciate that impacting the baseball and swing and miss stuff makes it less hard for a player or a pitcher to win a matchup, so that all has to be selected for to at least some significant degree But if nothing matters except for that, then there’s selection bias and a lot of pretty decent players get discarded, and pretty soon the league is full of several teams like this one that cannot advance runners and cannot adapt its swing decisions and swing ferocity to literally just put the ball in play based on base/out/leverage situation How many times does a team win that game if it strikes out ten times instead of twenty. Ninety percent of the time? Ninety five? I would not be surprised to learn there's something like xEV that everyone gets congratulated on. Despite Devers burning his shoulder and Casas tearing his ribs apart. And my personal theory the club's overall philosophy so anti-Yoshida that he'll be more successful if he just ignores everything and goes back to the approach he had in Japan. But the bottom line is when your approach turns most of your opponents into vintage Roger Clemens, you need to rethink that approach. |
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 21, 2024 6:14:19 GMT -5
Shutting Devers down is the right move. Get him right for next year.
|
|
|
|
Post by greenmonster on Sept 21, 2024 6:48:29 GMT -5
Shutting Devers down is the right move. Get him right for next year. Agree....and the next move needs to be shutting down Fatse |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 21, 2024 7:53:46 GMT -5
Not sure why y'all are overthinking this. Gasper comes up if Devers goes on the IL. It'll likely be Sogard or Romy at 3B no matter who comes up.
No reason to add someone else to the 40 just to come up and sit on the bench.
|
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 21, 2024 8:05:48 GMT -5
Shutting Devers down is the right move. Get him right for next year. Agree....and the next move needs to be shutting down Fatse He needed to be shutdown last year. I’m not sure why he’s still here. |
|
|
|
Post by chaimtime on Sept 21, 2024 8:57:06 GMT -5
This month sucks but I feel like Fitts having a 0.00 ERA and insane Stuff+ ratings in the majors is a pretty big development. I was totally out on this guy 6 weeks ago How do you square the Stuff+ ratings with the complete lack of swing and miss? I appreciate him peppering the zone and he’s looked hard to square up, but you’d think with three pitches grading out as plus-or-better Stuff+-wise he’d at least crack a 15% whiff rate. Even Winck is over 20%! |
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,171 
|
Post by jimoh on Sept 21, 2024 9:15:48 GMT -5
One positive - Richard Fitts. Pencil him in as a starter next year. Bello, Houck, Fitts, Crawford. We just need a #1. More - Guerrero looks like he belongs. Winck, Weissert, Sims all looked good. Story looks like he is finding his swing. Jarren had a pretty good game. That's about it. We keep forgetting Giolito. I'm happy with Fitts being in the rotation in Worcester but also on speed-dial. (In trades this winter I could be happy trading Abreu for two Richard Fitts types for AA or AAA.) |
|
|
|
Post by bojacksoxfan on Sept 21, 2024 9:30:21 GMT -5
This month sucks but I feel like Fitts having a 0.00 ERA and insane Stuff+ ratings in the majors is a pretty big development. I was totally out on this guy 6 weeks ago How do you square the Stuff+ ratings with the complete lack of swing and miss? I appreciate him peppering the zone and he’s looked hard to square up, but you’d think with three pitches grading out as plus-or-better Stuff+-wise he’d at least crack a 15% whiff rate. Even Winck is over 20%! Isn’t the simplest explanation that Stuff+ is an overrated metric that is often misused? |
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Sept 21, 2024 9:31:46 GMT -5
This month sucks but I feel like Fitts having a 0.00 ERA and insane Stuff+ ratings in the majors is a pretty big development. I was totally out on this guy 6 weeks ago How do you square the Stuff+ ratings with the complete lack of swing and miss? I appreciate him peppering the zone and he’s looked hard to square up, but you’d think with three pitches grading out as plus-or-better Stuff+-wise he’d at least crack a 15% whiff rate. Even Winck is over 20%! No idea how to reconcile it all with Fitts. His Stuff+ would rank him 4th among all qualified MLB starters between Corbin Burnes and Logan Gilbert. I mean that kind of makes you lose faith in Stuff+, but it also pushes Fitts towards being a guy that I might not be mad if he was starting the 5th game of the 2025 season. |
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Sept 21, 2024 10:50:42 GMT -5
One positive - Richard Fitts. Pencil him in as a starter next year. Bello, Houck, Fitts, Crawford. We just need a #1. More - Guerrero looks like he belongs. Winck, Weissert, Sims all looked good. Story looks like he is finding his swing. Jarren had a pretty good game. That's about it. We keep forgetting Giolito. I'm happy with Fitts being in the rotation in Worcester but also on speed-dial. (In trades this winter I could be happy trading Abreu for two Richard Fitts types for AA or AAA.) I’m all the way out on trading Abreu for 2 Fitts archetypes. |
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Sept 21, 2024 10:56:30 GMT -5
Pitching+ isn't perfect, but for relievers it beats any other metric or prediction system at estimating ERA. For starters it beats most metrics, but not ZiPS or Steamer until 400 pitches into the year. It also is better and quicker at predicting run-prevention in-season than K-BB% (which is known as a good standard for predicting that). Stuff+ in particular (as opposed to location+) stabilizes at about 80 pitches and is very sticky year over year. We're still early days with Fitts and we'll see how this all holds up, but I personally think his Stuff and Pitching+ metrics rating this well so far is a massively positive development, moreso than a high amount of whiffs would be and certainly moreso than the low ERA is. library.fangraphs.com/pitching/stuff-location-and-pitching-primer/ |
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 3,003
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 21, 2024 11:27:35 GMT -5
This month sucks but I feel like Fitts having a 0.00 ERA and insane Stuff+ ratings in the majors is a pretty big development. I was totally out on this guy 6 weeks ago How do you square the Stuff+ ratings with the complete lack of swing and miss? I appreciate him peppering the zone and he’s looked hard to square up, but you’d think with three pitches grading out as plus-or-better Stuff+-wise he’d at least crack a 15% whiff rate. Even Winck is over 20%! And also the 22.6 k% and 8.56 k's per 9 in Worcester. That's not dominant. His xERA at Worcester was 4.29 but it's 2.29 since his callup. That screams out "SSS!" His performance and results since his callup have been greatly encouraging, but we need to see more to draw solid conclusions. |
|
|
|
Post by chaimtime on Sept 21, 2024 11:32:50 GMT -5
How do you square the Stuff+ ratings with the complete lack of swing and miss? I appreciate him peppering the zone and he’s looked hard to square up, but you’d think with three pitches grading out as plus-or-better Stuff+-wise he’d at least crack a 15% whiff rate. Even Winck is over 20%! And also the 22.6 k% and 8.56 k's per 9 in Worcester. That's not dominant. His xERA at Worcester was 4.29 but it's 2.29 since his callup. That screams out "SSS!" His performance and results since his callup have been greatly encouraging, but we need to see more to draw solid conclusions. His scouting report mentions that he switched from a standard change to more of a splitter midway through the season, and he really took off at Worcester a couple months ago. Stuff+ really likes that splitter, so I’m guessing there’s something there. Either way, I think I’ll chalk it up to something the people on the analytics team are much more equipped to delve into than I am, and take it as a positive development like scottysmalls said. |
|
|
|
Post by patford on Sept 21, 2024 11:42:22 GMT -5
One positive - Richard Fitts. Pencil him in as a starter next year. Bello, Houck, Fitts, Crawford. We just need a #1. More - Guerrero looks like he belongs. Winck, Weissert, Sims all looked good. Story looks like he is finding his swing. Jarren had a pretty good game. That's about it. As I never expected this years team to be competitive this season has me genuinely very excited about next year. The young pitchers have all had encouraging seasons. Giolito coming back. Story, Casas and Grissom hopefully completely healthy. One of more of the big three-four making the leap. And even aside from the top four the system is loaded with high ceiling prospects. |
|
