2013 Non-Waiver Trade Deadline Discussion

That's fine. I'm happy keeping the 13th best offensive outfielder in the league.

Err... no. If they were trying to clear a spot at 3B, why would they acquire an inferior 3B and a pending free agent?

Jose Iglesias, however, may be someone the Cardinals might be interested in.

I think this organization is going to have to make a few decisions about trading some talent this off season. We all know the 40 man gets crowded.

I would not be shocked to see the team trade one of Barnes or Ranaudo and one of Workman or Britton if a deal becomes available for a solid performing position player or mid rotation starter. Not saying one by themselves but could easily be part of a greater package. Please stop trading prospects for closers. I think this is the worst use of prospects.

Personally I'd consider trading Middlebrooks if he can stay healthy and show the power potential he did early last season. I'll take Iglesias there for a year and let Cecchini play 3rd when he's ready sometime in 2015. He doesn't have the power but he has great OBP skills with slightly above average speed for a third baseman. I see him developing 15 HR power. I believe his game is David Wright like in terms of the all around game although not at the same premium level.

Bogaerts is a keeper who can stick at SS for I'd guess the first 3 seasons of his career before moving to RF.

Jackie Bradley JR should be the future CF unless the team signs Ellsbury to a 5 year deal (unlikely) in which case you could see JBJ as expendable (again unlikely).

Brentz is tradable, probably not by himself to get any decent return but he has value.

To me Lavarnway is tradable and would have value. I prefer Christian Vazquez for his defense and improving offense and Swihart's improving bat and improving catching as a potential all-star. Add Denney to the mix and the system has nice catching depth without Lavarnway.

You have to consider one of Iglesias or Marrerro as tradable as well if you believe Bogarts is a SS for the forseeable future.

I think you could also find trade value in Michael Almanzar as a 22 year old OF who seems to be getting his game together.

To me you're talking about most of the valuable players right there. Down the road I could see Margot, Betts, Wei-Lin, Coyle, maybe De La Cruz increasing there value among the bats to be included. I don't really see much trade value right now in Jacobs, Hazelbaker, Vinicio, Shaw, Hassan and Vitek to consider moving them unless its to complete a larger deal. The international prospects are true wildcards in Montas, Mercedes, Suarez, Almonte and Rijo. I think there could be upside value here in a few years.

Just my quick take on the value of the prospects and a little of how I would handle a few upcoming decisions on which players to move.

One of the concerns the Red Sox may have to address is the possibility of that party ending. It's not as big a concern as 3B or pitching, but it's something they need to think about.

This maybe an appropriate way to analyze a player with a long-term major league track record or a 24 year old prospect but Daniel Nava is neither of those. Good hitting performance doesn't just have to be based upon a high BABIP or HR/FB rates to be unsustainable. Walks and strikeouts can also be based upon unsustainable factors.

Further, I consider the minor league performance of a player who was almost always significantly older than his competition to be almost meaningless. That he's doing over a short period what he's done in the minor leagues is not evidence the sustainability. All studies showing a relationship between minor and major league performance were mostly based upon prospects who reached the majors at a relatively normal age.

Nava's value is mostly based upon walks. He doesn't hit for a lot of power and he doesn't run all that well. I don't think anyone expects him to contend for the batting title. Low power high walk guys are very unusual. Nava's current ISO is below average for a high walk player and it's been on it's way down.

For now the Red Sox have no choice but to ride the Nava train until it stops. There are other things to be concerned about, but I don't think you can look at his BABIP and his minor league track record and conclude this is a long-term party.

[citation needed]

Also, Nava's career major league ISO (.146) is around the league average (.149) and his career strikeout rate (20.2%) is right around the league average (19.9%) as well. A guy who hits for power and makes contact at a league-average rate with well above-average walk rates is a valuable player. Note that this year, he's well above league average in both (.180, 17.8%), and his AAA rates are also above average (.158, 17.3%) as well.

Also: pedigree is only useful when we don't have enough data or scouting reports to properly evaluate a player. With 1,934 minor league PAs and 754 major league PAs of well above-average performance, I think we have enough to say that Nava is at least a solidly above-average player. No, his player development path was not the standard one, and his defense is no great shakes, but at some point you have to start believing in his bat.

I used thissimple WAR calculator, giving him credit for average baserunning and the best possible defense and it says that player would be worth right around 3 wins; meaning he'd be a top 10 shortstop, but not top 3-5.

Jhonny Peralta put up almost exactly that line last year with elite defense (at least according to UZR) and was worth 2.5 fWAR.

I like UZR but it's a very flawed metric, especially over a single season. Some managers like to shift more than others and that means a simple routine ground-ball can be treated as a rangy play. You've seen Peralta play I assume, do you really think he's an elite defensive SS?

This is quite a comment from this article: www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/06/15/draft-ends-teams-focus-acquiring-pitcher/Q7M5xWBsq1I0SWdu684ppK/story.html

Stephen Drew, SS, Red Sox — Now that June 15 has come and gone, the Red Sox would be able to trade Drew anywhere. Free agents signed during the offseason can’t be dealt until after the 15th unless they give their permission. What would the market be? Given the lack of shortstops around baseball, the Red Sox would have no problem finding a taker, but they have been steadfast that Drew is their guy. One National League GM couldn’t quite understand their infatuation with Drew. “They’re either trying to justify the $9.5 million they paid him, or they’re not sold on [Jose] Iglesias, who could start for 29 other teams.”

Think there are teams that are really that high on him?  Doesn't that comment imply that GM thinks he's one of the best SS in MLB?

If that "one National League GM" is so unsure where the Red Sox value Iglesias, but thinks he could start for every single team (therefore, ostensibly the team he is the "one National League GM" of), maybe he should give Cherington a ring and try to pry Iglesias loose? I mean, if "one National League GM" thinks Jose Iglesias is that good, the Red Sox would probably be happy with the return and send him on his way. making both Ben and that "one National League GM" quite happy.

My reply ins't working correctly , but out of all the surprising "career year" guys I think Nava is the least likely to regress simply because of his skill set. He has old player skills which are very slow to regress with age. I think the league now with the high K rates is very conducive to a hitter like Nava with elite plate discipline.


I also think that Carp is pretty untradeable. To some extent he needs to be looked at like a prospect. He's young he has a sweetass swing and he needs to play everyday. He's gonna be the 1stbaseman next year and hit 30hr 100RBI's

What are the odds the M's make Seager available? Would solve the 3B solution if Middlebrooks can't figure things out.