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Post by elguapo on May 20, 2014 8:51:37 GMT -5
Marrero's recent results are a huge improvement on prior seasons -- 16 xbh vs 22 all of last season & 0 at AA!? -- and while I wonder a bit about the group of strong AA performances we're seeing, this at least allays my concerns about the low end of Marrero's offensive projection; in other words, he may never be a good hitter in the majors, but he should be playable a la Adam Everett.
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Post by jrffam05 on May 20, 2014 9:03:21 GMT -5
Not sure how Ben can be so committed to Xander at SS when you have a guy like Marrero in the system. Pretty simple: if Xander Bogaerts is even average at shortstop, he's one of the most valuable players in the game. That's the guy you build around. See I don't agree with this. This is maximizing Xander Bogaerts production, instead of maximizing the Red Sox production. We are saying that because SS is typically a light hitting position, if we have a good hitter there it will benefit our team, but that is not necessarily true. That would be assuming all other positions are hitting at league average. Right now Red Sox 3B are hitting 196/301/266 compared to AL average of 242/312/389, and LF are hitting 233/312/357 v AL average of 255/327/410. I haven't checked RF or CF but I would assume they are below average also. So any hitting value over league average Bogaerts is bringing at SS is being lost at these positions. Now if we had Justin Upton in left, and Longoria at 3B Bogaerts bat become extremely valuable at SS, but right now there is no added offensive benefit if Bogaerts is playing LF, 3B, or SS. Hitting and fielding are two separate sides of the coin. I'm at the belief that you put your best defensive players at the premium positions (SS, C, CF) than rearrange everyone else around that. A good SS will save more runs than a good LF, and a bad SS will cost more runs than a bad LF. A good short stop can justify a position on the roster even if he is a poor hitter. I take fangraphs defensive metrics with a grain of salt, but last year they had Simmons as a 4.6 war player with a 91 WRC. I'd be against bringing Marrero up now, because I believe it will hurt his development. But theoretically if we are saying he is a plus SS at MLB level right now, the Sox would be a better team today letting him play SS and moving Bogaerts to LF/3B.
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Post by amfox1 on May 20, 2014 9:30:12 GMT -5
Merged posts into original Marrero thread.
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Post by Guidas on May 20, 2014 10:41:13 GMT -5
Pretty simple: if Xander Bogaerts is even average at shortstop, he's one of the most valuable players in the game. That's the guy you build around. See I don't agree with this. This is maximizing Xander Bogaerts production, instead of maximizing the Red Sox production. We are saying that because SS is typically a light hitting position, if we have a good hitter there it will benefit our team, but that is not necessarily true. That would be assuming all other positions are hitting at league average. Right now Red Sox 3B are hitting 196/301/266 compared to AL average of 242/312/389, and LF are hitting 233/312/357 v AL average of 255/327/410. I haven't checked RF or CF but I would assume they are below average also. So any hitting value over league average Bogaerts is bringing at SS is being lost at these positions. Now if we had Justin Upton in left, and Longoria at 3B Bogaerts bat become extremely valuable at SS, but right now there is no added offensive benefit if Bogaerts is playing LF, 3B, or SS. Hitting and fielding are two separate sides of the coin. I'm at the belief that you put your best defensive players at the premium positions (SS, C, CF) than rearrange everyone else around that. A good SS will save more runs than a good LF, and a bad SS will cost more runs than a bad LF. A good short stop can justify a position on the roster even if he is a poor hitter. I take fangraphs defensive metrics with a grain of salt, but last year they had Simmons as a 4.6 war player with a 91 WRC. I'd be against bringing Marrero up now, because I believe it will hurt his development. But theoretically if we are saying he is a plus SS at MLB level right now, the Sox would be a better team today letting him play SS and moving Bogaerts to LF/3B. I'm more of this mindset as well. If you look at OBP/production as an aggregate, then even if Xander is an above average SS offensively but slightly below ave defensively at his peak, then why not move him to 3rd, where he'd still be above average, use Marrero as an average or slightly above average offensive SS but above average defensively? The OBP/production for Xander remains the same and the infield run prevention improves. Value is nice and all, but pitching and defense are still essential elements of the game. And you can always explore other positions to get average or above average production either through position platoons or seeking out above average players through trades/free agency. I get "value" but if you build the team looking for well distributed OBP and production and enhance run production, it could be more advantageous than having a SS who hits .300/.370/.480 + but losing a plus defender at a key position when that .300/.370/.480+ can be had at 3rd base (which is still well above league average). I also get the idea of trying to give Middlebrooks as much rope as possible because he could be a 30HR guy and pop is rare, but is this worth sacrificing getting 25 Hrs and much higher OBP at 3rd from Bogaerts and having a league ave/slight above ave offensive SS who is awesome at run prevention? Seems like a forest for the trees type of fixation.
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Post by jmei on May 20, 2014 11:09:33 GMT -5
It's not really about value, it's about whether Marrero is good enough to be worth pushing Xander to 3B and pushing Middlebrooks/Cecchini/etc. either to another defensive position or off the team entirely. Is Xander at 3B/Marrero at SS a better duo than Xander at SS/WMB or Cecchini or [Acquisition] at 3B?
Remember, even with elite defense and baserunning, a .250/.310/.380 shortstop is worth something between two-and-a-half to three wins (a la Elvis Andrus or Brandon Crawford or Alexei Ramirez in 2013). If the Red Sox think they can get similar or better production from their third baseman, it makes more sense to keep Xander at shortstop. If it's at all up in the air (which it definitely is), then it makes sense to keep Xander at the tougher defensive position (SS) in the meantime.
ADD: For what it's worth, the league-average shortstop hit .255/.308/.373 last year, which is just about what I'm projecting Marrero to hit once you apply park adjustments.
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 20, 2014 11:49:32 GMT -5
Pretty simple: if Xander Bogaerts is even average at shortstop, he's one of the most valuable players in the game. That's the guy you build around. See I don't agree with this. This is maximizing Xander Bogaerts production, instead of maximizing the Red Sox production. We are saying that because SS is typically a light hitting position, if we have a good hitter there it will benefit our team, but that is not necessarily true. That would be assuming all other positions are hitting at league average. Right now Red Sox 3B are hitting 196/301/266 compared to AL average of 242/312/389, and LF are hitting 233/312/357 v AL average of 255/327/410. I haven't checked RF or CF but I would assume they are below average also. So any hitting value over league average Bogaerts is bringing at SS is being lost at these positions. Now if we had Justin Upton in left, and Longoria at 3B Bogaerts bat become extremely valuable at SS, but right now there is no added offensive benefit if Bogaerts is playing LF, 3B, or SS. Hitting and fielding are two separate sides of the coin. I'm at the belief that you put your best defensive players at the premium positions (SS, C, CF) than rearrange everyone else around that. A good SS will save more runs than a good LF, and a bad SS will cost more runs than a bad LF. A good short stop can justify a position on the roster even if he is a poor hitter. I take fangraphs defensive metrics with a grain of salt, but last year they had Simmons as a 4.6 war player with a 91 WRC. I'd be against bringing Marrero up now, because I believe it will hurt his development. But theoretically if we are saying he is a plus SS at MLB level right now, the Sox would be a better team today letting him play SS and moving Bogaerts to LF/3B.I don't disagree with that final statement. But it's irrelevant, as you noted, because it's not the reality we're dealing with ... and I still think it'd be the wrong move in the long run. Right now, Bogaerts has some work to do to be a shortstop long term. I'm pretty confident he can do it, and he's improving all the time, but this is totally necessary development time. If you move him off SS for a couple of years at this point, I'm totally convinced that you are making him a third baseman long term. I suspect that a more natural shortstop could possibly make that move, but I'm pretty sure that Bogaerts can't. (as an aside, I think the Orioles may be making this mistake with Machado, but reports are that he's a more gifted defender at short than Xander is, so he may be able to move back) And, as a long-term asset, Bogaerts is FAR more valuable as a shortstop. A shortstop who can possibly hit 300/400/480 in his peak seasons is someone you construct your team around; that's your tent pole. It's a helluva lot cheaper to acquire equivalent production at third than at short; Xander makes the rest of the team's resources stretch farther just because of his production at short. If Marrero develops into something more than league-average with the bat, and Bogaerts development caps out as a below-average defender, then maybe you make the move because you're talking about 4-5 years of a stellar infield. But there's no way you make that move now, and I suspect that Xander will be the Red Sox shortstop for the next decade or more.
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Post by jimed14 on May 20, 2014 12:08:08 GMT -5
These decisions aren't made in a vacuum by a computer. They do have to consider development and mindset for both Bogaerts and Marrero. They absolutely cannot risk screwing Bogaerts up by bouncing him around and giving him any reason to doubt himself.
And they aren't going to put Marrero in the majors at any point this year unless they're 20 games under .500 and there are zero expectations for anyone on the field.
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Post by Guidas on May 20, 2014 12:17:41 GMT -5
It's not really about value, it's about whether Marrero is good enough to be worth pushing Xander to 3B and pushing Middlebrooks/Cecchini/etc. either to another defensive position or off the team entirely. Is Xander at 3B/Marrero at SS a better duo than Xander at SS/WMB or Cecchini or [Acquisition] at 3B? Remember, even with elite defense and baserunning, a .250/.310/.380 shortstop is worth something between two-and-a-half to three wins (a la Elvis Andrus or Brandon Crawford or Alexei Ramirez in 2013). If the Red Sox think they can get similar or better production from their third baseman, it makes more sense to keep Xander at shortstop. If it's at all up in the air (which it definitely is), then it makes sense to keep Xander at the tougher defensive position (SS) in the meantime. ADD: For what it's worth, the league-average shortstop hit .255/.308/.373 last year, which is just about what I'm projecting Marrero to hit once you apply park adjustments. Yes, I was thinking Marrero would be .260/.330/.380ish, which would make him slightly above league average. But really the offensive bar is so low for SS that I really believe he'd be fine, and his D would make him a top 3 defensive SS in the AL. Cecchini can go play left, although as much as I like him I think the org sees him as trade bait. I really like Middlebrooks but I think the org is starting to lose patience with his progression (or lack thereof).
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Post by mgoetze on May 20, 2014 12:17:52 GMT -5
a league ave/slight above ave offensive SS who is awesome at run prevention? It's really important to realise that Marrero 2014 isn't going to be that though. Marrero 2016? Sure. Hopefully even the second half of 2015. But not 2014.
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Post by Guidas on May 20, 2014 12:19:01 GMT -5
It's really important to realise that Marrero 2014 isn't going to be that though. Marrero 2016? Sure. Hopefully even the second half of 2015. But not 2014. Agree - which is why I'd sign Drew right now and move Xander to 3rd except against lefties if Middlebrooks is back, then have Mbrooks at 3rd Xander at SS. Just for this year.
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Post by jimed14 on May 20, 2014 12:23:21 GMT -5
It's not really about value, it's about whether Marrero is good enough to be worth pushing Xander to 3B and pushing Middlebrooks/Cecchini/etc. either to another defensive position or off the team entirely. Is Xander at 3B/Marrero at SS a better duo than Xander at SS/WMB or Cecchini or [Acquisition] at 3B? Remember, even with elite defense and baserunning, a .250/.310/.380 shortstop is worth something between two-and-a-half to three wins (a la Elvis Andrus or Brandon Crawford or Alexei Ramirez in 2013). If the Red Sox think they can get similar or better production from their third baseman, it makes more sense to keep Xander at shortstop. If it's at all up in the air (which it definitely is), then it makes sense to keep Xander at the tougher defensive position (SS) in the meantime. ADD: For what it's worth, the league-average shortstop hit .255/.308/.373 last year, which is just about what I'm projecting Marrero to hit once you apply park adjustments. Yes, I was thinking Marrero would be .260/.330/.380ish, which would make him slightly above league average. But really the offensive bar is so low for SS that I really believe he'd be fine, and his D would make him a top 3 defensive SS in the AL. Cecchini can go play left, although as much as I like him I think the org sees him as trade bait. I really like Middlebrooks but I think the org is starting to lose patience with his progression (or lack thereof). WMB is getting close to being labeled injury prone for me. Or maybe accident-prone. I was encouraged for a little while but think he was hurt a bit before he broke his finger.
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Post by jrffam05 on May 20, 2014 12:40:31 GMT -5
These decisions aren't made in a vacuum by a computer. They do have to consider development and mindset for both Bogaerts and Marrero. They absolutely cannot risk screwing Bogaerts up by bouncing him around and giving him any reason to doubt himself. And they aren't going to put Marrero in the majors at any point this year unless they're 20 games under .500 and there are zero expectations for anyone on the field. I am in agreement. I think Bogaerts is in an evaluation stage, and should stay at SS this year. My comments are more to the theory that Bogaerts may hit 25-30 HR's one day, and that is not typical of a SS so we have to keep him there come hell or high water. If we were trying to make the team better today it is not from promoting Marrero, it is signing Drew and moving Bogaerts over, but that is something the brass is pretty adamantly against. I just don't agree with the theory that Marrero, and as I would argue Betts, are blocked at SS because Bogaerts is there. Handling the position is much different than thriving at it. Hey maybe Bogaerts turns into Tulo, a guy who hits bombs and plays a great defensive short stop. If that is the case no one is going to move him, but that isn't something anyone is projecting.
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Post by Guidas on May 20, 2014 13:06:52 GMT -5
Tulo was always a rangy guy for his size in the field. He's a genuine freak.
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Post by jrffam05 on May 20, 2014 13:55:37 GMT -5
If we were trying to make the team better today it is not from promoting Marrero, it is signing Drew and moving Bogaerts over, but that is something the brass is pretty adamantly against reasonably considering Originally what I wanted to say, before the FBI messed with my brain waves
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Post by Guidas on May 20, 2014 15:46:09 GMT -5
OK, Ben took my advice on Drew/Xander. I'm going to call him back next week and tell him he needs to get Stanton at the deadline. Anymore messages?
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 20, 2014 16:55:48 GMT -5
Tell him to get himself to hoarders anonymous. Come to think of it, that may not be a problem once they trade for Stanton.
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Post by moonstone2 on May 21, 2014 0:01:36 GMT -5
I'd like to see some scouting reports on Marrero's bat. Last year BP was talking about a double toe tap which is an indication of poor bat speed. I wonder if he's still doing that or if he's generating better bat speed.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 21, 2014 4:14:40 GMT -5
ahem... www.pressherald.com/sports/Deven_Marerro_is_facing_up_to_his_future_.htmlReporter Ken Rosenthal chimed in that “if Marrero is what (the Red Sox) think at shortstop, then Bogaerts stays at third base.” . . . And so we did question Farrell, asking him to compare Marrero with Jose Iglesias, the benchmark of young defensive shortstops.
“I think they’re very comparable,” Farrell said. “Iggy had a little bit more flair. … They go about it a little bit differently, but no less effective on Deven’s part.” . . . In spring training, Farrell noted Marrero’s gap power, but indicated he was fiddling too much with his approach. . . . Gedman did not want to talk about Marrero’s past.
“I like to look at what I see now, and I see a consistent approach, a consistent working on his swing, not searching for more, not looking for more,” Gedman said.
“It has transferred from the cage to BP to in the game. He’s starting to become who he is. It’s really kind of neat to see.”
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Post by Guidas on May 21, 2014 7:34:49 GMT -5
Tell him to get himself to hoarders anonymous. Come to think of it, that may not be a problem once they trade for Stanton. Agreed. Although with the Dodgers outfield glut and the dissatisfaction with antics, I wonder if Ben could spin the same relative package to LAD for Puig.
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Post by jimed14 on May 21, 2014 8:59:01 GMT -5
Tell him to get himself to hoarders anonymous. Come to think of it, that may not be a problem once they trade for Stanton. Agreed. Although with the Dodgers outfield glut and the dissatisfaction with antics, I wonder if Ben could spin the same relative package to LAD for Puig. No way. Those antics play up well in LA.
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Post by James Dunne on May 21, 2014 9:46:40 GMT -5
EDIT: Got pretty far off topic here with the Puig stuff, so I'll take my previous post elsewhere.
Back on topic - Marrero and Brian Johnson have really turned around perceptions of that 2012 draft. It's not the 2011 haul, but it looks like a winner.
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Post by Guidas on May 21, 2014 12:03:43 GMT -5
EDIT: Got pretty far off topic here with the Puig stuff, so I'll take my previous post elsewhere. Back on topic - Marrero and Brian Johnson have really turned around perceptions of that 2012 draft. It's not the 2011 haul, but it looks like a winner. My bad. Just through that out there as it seemed germane in part to the conversation.
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Post by jdb on May 23, 2014 18:00:17 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 23, 2014 22:22:47 GMT -5
According to Fangraphs, Brandon Crawford is a 1.1 WAR player right now. That's about 4.4 over a season. Xander is 1.2. Deven's spray chart. He seems to use the whole field with his double either gappers or opposite field. mlbfarm.com/player.php?player_id=571918&position=SS
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Post by moonstone2 on May 23, 2014 23:39:47 GMT -5
Somehow I doubt that Crawford in that park will hit 20-25 home runs in that park. Not a 4.4 WAR player.
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