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2012 MLB Non Sox
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 13, 2012 17:14:34 GMT -5
RT @jonheymancbs: ichiro, yankees deal will be for between $12-13M, still working on structure.
my point stands on OF market
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Post by bluechip on Dec 13, 2012 17:27:32 GMT -5
RT @jonheymancbs: ichiro, yankees deal will be for between $12-13M, still working on structure. my point stands on OF market And he apparently turned down a 14 million dollar contract from the Phillies. Not that I blame him: a more competitive team, bigger market, and his numbers surged after going to the Bronx.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 13, 2012 17:43:18 GMT -5
Ken Rosenthal @ken_Rosenthal Sources: #Cubs in serious discussions with Anibal Sanchez. Deal could be 5 years/$75 million. #Tigers still a threat.
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Post by mjammz on Dec 13, 2012 17:45:59 GMT -5
Ken Rosenthal @ken_Rosenthal Sources: #Cubs in serious discussions with Anibal Sanchez. Deal could be 5 years/$75 million. #Tigers still a threat. Theo just can't help himself
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Post by elguapo on Dec 13, 2012 18:35:39 GMT -5
That's not a bad deal.
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Post by jmei on Dec 13, 2012 18:51:55 GMT -5
Not a particularly good one, either. About market rate for a pitcher of Sanchez's age and performance levels.
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 13, 2012 19:04:53 GMT -5
It's a deal that you make when your system isn't exactly pitching rich. From Mayo's top 20 prospects on MLB.com, their top 4 prospects are hitters, and 6 of top 7 are offensive players. With the Sox, 3 of the top 5 are pitching prospects, and there are plenty of people that are also very high on Owens/Ranaudo, as well Hernandez/Pimentel likely available out of AAA by midseason if necessary. Coupled with Lester/Buchholz, who are probably likely to be with the Sox for a long time, there isn't a huge need to jump on a non top 10 or so pitcher imo. Especially given who could/likely will be a FA SP over the next 2-3 years
It's a major need for the Cubs clearly. Seems like it's the fairly going rate, and that the Lackey/Burnett signings, which were thought of as overpays at the time, ended up as clear overpays
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 13, 2012 19:06:18 GMT -5
Annual cost is pretty reasonable, though. He won't cut into the long-term payroll flexibility at that price. Cubs didn't have to go all the way out to six years. Considering that Lackey and Burnett both got five years at $82.5M three and four years ago, respectively, and the contract inflation since then, I think the Cubs did ok here. Not fantastic, but ok.
Considering Chicago gave twelve starts to old friend Justin Germano last year, starting pitching was in pretty big need of an upgrade for them. Sanchez is clearly that.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 13, 2012 19:16:08 GMT -5
According to Bob Nightingale of USA Today, the Tigers are being given the chance to match the Cubs offer. So a deal is not final yet.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 14, 2012 9:46:24 GMT -5
The Rays are supposedly close to a deal with Roberto Hernandez (formerly Fausto Carmona). I feel like Alex Cobb to the Angels for Peter Bourjos makes sense for both teams. The Rays can already go Price/Moore/Hellickson, then get two starters out of Niemann, Henandez, Odorizzi and Archer, and give themselves much-needed outfield depth, starting with Jennings-Bourjos-Myers from left to right. Meanwhile, the Angels have sort of a glut, with Bourjos, Trumbo and Morales, all everyday level players, and only two positions to give them. That depth would be nice, but they their starting rotation is really weak after Weaver and Wilson. Cobb gives them a solid 3/4 with some upside.
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Post by texs31 on Dec 14, 2012 9:58:03 GMT -5
NIghtengale (USAToday) reporting that Detroit has now re-signed Sanchez.
Wonder if they will look to move a starter (Porcello) to upgrade LF and/or the bulppen.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 14, 2012 10:09:55 GMT -5
NIghtengale (USAToday) reporting that Detroit has now re-signed Sanchez. Wonder if they will look to move a starter (Porcello) to upgrade LF and/or the bulppen. Thanks for posting this. I was just about to say that it was reported that the Cubs withdrew their offer this morning when Sanchez hadn't made a decision, so I'm interested to see what the money was. Porcello's a guy I'd love to have the Red Sox take a look at. -Ton of ground balls in front of a seriously terrible infield defense. -Consistently low walk rate, 2.2 per 9 IP this year, , 2.3 for his career -Gradually increasing strikeout rate, up to an acceptable (but still below average) 5.5 per 9 innings. Generally the types of guys who can succeed with a K rate in the 5's are heavy ground ball, low walk types... a mold Porcello fits -Porcello is ANOTHER case of the Tigers rushing a guy to the majors before he was ready, unnecessarily lowering his value. Porcello skipped Double-A AND Triple-A, meaning he basically had to learn to pitch against high level competition. I don't know why the Tigers keep doing this. Even worse for him, he's had to do it as a ground ball pitcher in front of arguably the worst infield defense in the league. -The fact that he's been average for his career despite all this speaks well of him. Remember, he's only 13 months older than Allen Webster, five months older than Drake Britton, and four months younger than Brandon Workman. I have no idea what his value is in a trade, but he's worth taking a loot at. ADIT: Also, his FIP and xFIP have both been improving in the regular increments that you'd like to see from a pitcher his age. Now, all of the risks apply here for a pitcher who has been consistently underperforming his peripherals - it's the same discussion a lot of us were having regarding Greinke. However, I'm not advocating giving Porcello $150 million, just that he's worth exploring a deal for.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 14, 2012 10:58:10 GMT -5
Well, the Tigers would seem to have one extra starter in either Drew Smyly or Percello. It does not hurt to have that depth, so I would not trade either if I was the Tiger's front office, but as a Red Sox fan, I would like either.
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Post by honkbal on Dec 14, 2012 10:58:55 GMT -5
So, I wouldn't call this signing a bargain or anything, but can someone explain to me why one of these two pitchers is worth an extra year and $67 million?
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Post by bluechip on Dec 14, 2012 11:08:41 GMT -5
So, I wouldn't call this signing a bargain or anything, but can someone explain to me why one of these two pitchers is worth an extra year and $67 million? More strikeouts, fewer walks, and a better ground ball rate. Basically all of the stuff which a pitcher can control, Grienke does better.
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Post by honkbal on Dec 14, 2012 11:25:06 GMT -5
It was a rhetorical question.
But yes, I get it. Greinke's FIP over that time is 3.16, his xFIP 3.17, and his SIERA is 3.24. Sanchez, meanwhile is 3.40, 3.63, 3.67 respectively. And Greinke is more durable.
And, obviously, if I go back one year further it's Greinke in a landslide.
I still think an extra year and $67 million is a pretty steep bet that Greinke will start meeting his DIPS-based stats when he hasn't approached them in three years. Especially when taking scouting reports into account (he's reportedly been pretty poor out of the stretch).
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 14, 2012 11:46:26 GMT -5
The bigger answer is that it only takes one team to overpay. It's open for debate how much better Greinke is than Sanchez, but I think most people agree that Greinke IS at least slightly better. The Dodgers don't really seem to care about money right now. They're just going to spend, and if if costs an extra $6 - $7 million a year, plus an extra year, to grab that extra win or two, then it's worth it to them.
Throwing aside the $24M or so in 2018, I don't think it's crazy to think that Greinke will be worth $7 million more annually than Sanchez over the next five. He's quite durable, and while I'm skeptical he'll figure out his problems from the stretch and approach his 2009 excellence again, I don't think he blows up.
The moral of the story is that above a certain point, marginal wins are getting very expensive, making cost-controlled talent even more important than ever.
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Post by Matt Huegel on Dec 14, 2012 11:55:49 GMT -5
The big red flag with Sanchez too is before those three season you listed, he pitched 114.1, 30.0, 51.2, 86.0 innings in his 06-09 seasons. He's been very durable the last three seasons though so the Tigers are obviously betting that's in the past.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 14, 2012 12:18:52 GMT -5
NIghtengale (USAToday) reporting that Detroit has now re-signed Sanchez. Wonder if they will look to move a starter (Porcello) to upgrade LF and/or the bulppen. Thanks for posting this. I was just about to say that it was reported that the Cubs withdrew their offer this morning when Sanchez hadn't made a decision, so I'm interested to see what the money was. Porcello's a guy I'd love to have the Red Sox take a look at. -Ton of ground balls in front of a seriously terrible infield defense. -Consistently low walk rate, 2.2 per 9 IP this year, , 2.3 for his career -Gradually increasing strikeout rate, up to an acceptable (but still below average) 5.5 per 9 innings. Generally the types of guys who can succeed with a K rate in the 5's are heavy ground ball, low walk types... a mold Porcello fits -Porcello is ANOTHER case of the Tigers rushing a guy to the majors before he was ready, unnecessarily lowering his value. Porcello skipped Double-A AND Triple-A, meaning he basically had to learn to pitch against high level competition. I don't know why the Tigers keep doing this. Even worse for him, he's had to do it as a ground ball pitcher in front of arguably the worst infield defense in the league. -The fact that he's been average for his career despite all this speaks well of him. Remember, he's only 13 months older than Allen Webster, five months older than Drake Britton, and four months younger than Brandon Workman. I have no idea what his value is in a trade, but he's worth taking a loot at. ADIT: Also, his FIP and xFIP have both been improving in the regular increments that you'd like to see from a pitcher his age. Now, all of the risks apply here for a pitcher who has been consistently underperforming his peripherals - it's the same discussion a lot of us were having regarding Greinke. However, I'm not advocating giving Porcello $150 million, just that he's worth exploring a deal for. I'd love Rick Porcello, too but I don't see how we match up with Detroit which seems to have every roster spot filled with the exception of closer. Dombrowski has stated that he'd be satisfied with young Rondon as his closer, but that may be GMspeak. I doubt that Bailey alone would get it done. But it's a good starting point.
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Post by honkbal on Dec 14, 2012 12:31:07 GMT -5
Fair points on the value of marginal wins and the context of the Dodgers and their infinite funds. In context, Greinke probably just needs to be better by any amount at all to make the extra $6-7 million per worth it to the Dodgers. Also a good point on durability. They may have made the same number of starts over the last three years, but it's tough to ignore the fact that Sanchez had three consecutive lost seasons leading up to that.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 14, 2012 20:06:45 GMT -5
Jon Heyman @jonheymancbs travis d'arnaud was heavily discussed w/ toronto as well as arencibia. hearing #mets may be landing d'arnaud. unconfirmed
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 14, 2012 20:22:04 GMT -5
If the Mets get d'Arnaud I don't want anybody talking about the Red Sox should've gotten Dickey.
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Post by rangoon82 on Dec 14, 2012 20:27:31 GMT -5
So its weird that we are all going to find out what rooting for Toronto must have felt like for the past 15 years or so.
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 14, 2012 20:37:43 GMT -5
If the Mets get d'Arnaud I don't want anybody talking about the Red Sox should've gotten Dickey. But they're saving money on the contract!!Seriously, if true, that's a ton for a 38-year old, even one as recently successful as Dickey.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 14, 2012 20:48:15 GMT -5
So its weird that we are all going to find out what rooting for Toronto must have felt like for the past 15 years or so. Some of us remember and it was 20 years ago. The Jays were a good team in the 80s that could never seem to win the big game until they finally put it all together in 1992 - 1993 just before they were dismantled. The Royals Championship was a last gasp Championship as was the Orioles Championship and the Pirates last Championship where a brilliant run of years ended in a Championship before decline set in, and I can remember all of them except Pittsburgh, who I missed by a year unfortunately as I started watching baseball during the exciting 1980 season. And yes, they're going for it. Can't blame them. They see their window of opportunity. NY is old and cannot spend money this year. The Red Sox aren't much of a threat. Baltimore did some serious overachieving last year, and only Tampa really offers a challenge and with two Wild Card berths available, Toronto is well positioned to take charge of the AL East. This is their opening.
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