SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 8, 2018 15:59:00 GMT -5
The Golden State Astros might go 11-0.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 8, 2018 15:54:48 GMT -5
Starting Vazquez makes a lot of sense, it allows Cora to pinch hit in the middle innings if Vazquez comes up in a key spot while still having the option to insert Leon late in the game to protect a lead. Starting Swihart would feel like a panic move, so this was the realistic change at catcher.
It's not particularly fair to Mookie, but as long as Judge is hitting a bomb per game the Red Sox need Mookie to be a force offensively in at least one of these next two games.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Sept 26, 2018 11:44:18 GMT -5
I have no idea what they plan to do at LB without Bentley. The Burkhead/RB situation is a mess, but it's still much better than the LB situation. Yikes. This might be the worst team since 2002, and almost certainly the worst since 09.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Aug 19, 2018 17:13:17 GMT -5
A closer blows a 4-3 lead in the top of the 9th and gives up 4 ER. His team rallies in the bottom of the 9th to score 5 runs and walk off with the win. The closer who gave up 4 ER in his one inning now gets credited with the "win". The win literally happened, and he gets the credit, but in reality he was the least valuable player to play within the game on either side. This records a real life event, but doesn't give you any idea of the player's value.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Aug 14, 2018 17:25:40 GMT -5
Brady is going to have to pull out another rabbit out of his hat again if he's going to the superbowl at the age of 41. He's the last guy I should ever doubt, but this team has lost a ton of talent from last year into this year. The conference has a chance to be better with these younger QBs coming in. I think there's dark days for the Pats coming starting next year, especially if Brady retires. Like a long rebuild coming. This is when I will completely tune out football altogether. This offense was pretty good in the Super Bowl after Cooks went down, and they won the AFCCG after Gronk went down, so they'll make due. They've lost Dion Lewis, Nate Solder, Cam Fleming, and Danny Amendola (plus the significant contributions Cooks made over the course of the season, of course) while replacing them with Sony Michel, Brown & Wynn, Cannon, and Julian Edelman after the suspension. If they stay reasonably healthy (aka the line, Brady, Gronk, Edelman, and the RB's) the offense will continue to roll. On any given play Brady will have Option 1 Gronk, Option 2 Edelman Option 3 White/Burkhead/Michel Option 4 Hogan Option 5 WR#3/RB#2/TE#2. Last year their offense was absolutely loaded at this time, people compared them favorably to the 07 team, and just because Brandin Cooks isn't the #3 option entering preseason doesn't mean they lack weapons. Now, we must acknowledge the age and heightened injury risk with many of the core players, but even if they brought back Dion Lewis and Amendola we'd have the same concerns as those two carry big durability issues. The line could very well be better, people keep harping on the loss of Solder but I'll take the gamble on Brown, Wynn, Cannon at LT, LG, RT being roughly as good as the Solder, Thuney, Fleming combo that closed out last year. Defensively the Patriots have absolutely added talent and look significantly better than the Super Bowl defense, Hightower alone is an absolute game changer, and it'll ultimately come down to health and how the new additions adapt to the system.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Aug 4, 2018 17:47:05 GMT -5
The Yankees are now 71-72 on the road since the start of the 2017 season (including the playoffs).
They might want to consider winning their road games…nah, they’ll just blame all the other MLB teams for not beating the Red Sox enough, because that’s what second place teams do, damnit.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Aug 3, 2018 13:14:30 GMT -5
Rice had 1249 runs scored, Evans had 1470... . Per 162 games. I said long earlier, Rice had a shorter prime. Evans still scored more runs per plate appearance for their careers, which is more meaningful than the per game played rate. Evans scored 1470 runs in 10569 plate appearances, meaning he scored a run on 13.9% of his plate appearances. Jim Rice scored 1249 runs in 9058 plate appearances, meaning he scored on ~13.79% of his plate appearances.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 30, 2018 16:14:08 GMT -5
The Yankees lost the division last year for the same reason they are trailing by 5.5 games this year: they don't win enough road games. This year the Yankees are 0.5 games off the Red Sox home record and 5 games off their road record, so it's essentially the entire difference. Last year the Yankees lost the division by 2 games while finishing 5 games under the Red Sox road record. The 2018 Astros and Red Sox look like great home and road teams, the Yankees look like a great home team and merely a good road team.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 20, 2018 15:17:21 GMT -5
The MLB playoff format should be simple: make the team with the best record in each league pick their first round opponent. The teams probably don't want to be forced into actually making a decision out of fear it'll give the opposing team "extra motivation", but it's fair and avoids crappy situations like a potential AL/NLDS between the best two teams. This format could generate additional fan/media discussion as the season winds down, and it could add some emotion to the series if the chosen team feels slighted. If they want to go crazy they could make a show of it, maybe paired with the WC play-in games. The travel/timing aspect should be easy enough to navigate.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 19, 2018 14:25:36 GMT -5
Every reliever trade is so ugly. I'm not sure if this makes it better or worse, but it's worth remembering that this acquisition is being made entirely for the postseason. They're not going to lose that division, and they know that. They did this because it increases their chances of winning the World Series by a single-digit percentage. Miller and Allen will be free agents and Hand is controlled through 2021, so this wasn't just about the 2018 team.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 15, 2018 21:54:49 GMT -5
Snell's home/road splits are intense.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 13, 2018 14:50:44 GMT -5
I'm all aboard the Scooter hype train and if they could make it work he'd be a perfect fit for sure
I'm not sold on Dozier at all but given the fact he's a rental and playing poorly he seems like a dart throw who could be had for pieces that won't hurt. Nunez needs to be replaced, and fortunately it should be a buyer's market, most of the contenders don't need 2B options and there are several rental options potentially available: Dozier, Asdrubal Cabrera, Lowrie, LeMahieu, etc. Cabrera probably isn't a good match because the Mets will likely prioritize financial relief over maximizing the talent return. I'd be ok with waiting out the market and taking whoever is left on July 31st, given the budget/system...but man, Scooter in this lineup would be fun.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 13, 2018 12:17:12 GMT -5
I really like the player but I believe he's not a free agent until after 2019, so he should cost a lot more than Dozier.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 6, 2018 16:37:22 GMT -5
2004 Red Sox were better than the 78 or 86 teams. Not just because they won but they won 98 games and that was with a lot of injuries. There were multiple hall of famers on that team and one of the best lineups i’ve ever seen with Bill Mueller batting ninth. What injuries are you talking about? The 04 Red Sox were remarkably healthy overall, especially for a veteran team.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Jun 5, 2018 10:51:39 GMT -5
Imagine working for the Orioles and being told you can't utilize IFA to obtain talent but you can draft a convicted child molester to obtain talent.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Apr 29, 2018 16:21:21 GMT -5
When you go through all the trades the Patriots were able to turn the #43 pick into the 2019 Bears 2nd, 2019 Lions 3rd, the ability to trade up from #63 to #56 (Dawson pick), and the #178th pick (Christian Sam). That's the official Jimmy G return, until Bill inevitably deals the Bears and Lions picks for other assets.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Apr 29, 2018 11:50:51 GMT -5
The Patriots used picks from this draft to trade for players like Eric Rowe, Jason McCourty, Danny Shelton, Trent Brown, Cassius Marsh, Cordarelle Patterson, and Marquis Flowers in addition to their draft class. Marsh already busted here and it's not a lock all those players contribute, but it's impressive to see Bill use the draft to add so many options. I'm sure he'll use some of these extra 2019 picks to trade during the remainder of the offseason and in-season too, and since he can't trade projected comp picks until they are awarded it was big to acquire some tradeable draft capital. Remember last offseason when the Patriots "loaded up", supposedly for a last run or two with Brady and Belichick? It sure seems like Bill is still invested in the Patriots long term future.
It felt like Sony Michel was a bit of an overdraft at the time of the pick (strictly due to the depth of this RB class) but the quick run on RB's made me reconsider, along with seeing how good Michel is in pass protection. Dion Lewis was extremely productive last season, but Michel should give this offense even more versatility.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Apr 25, 2018 10:42:27 GMT -5
I think Kolton Miller is a poor fit for the Patriots current needs. He's a long term high upside prospect due to his athleticism but he's easily the most raw option for LT among the top 2 round guys. The Patriots already have a quality developmental tackle option in Garcia, and while they could use more depth at tackle their actual "need" is in the form of a 2018 starting caliber LT, and by almost all accounts Miller is not that guy by September. If Wynn slips to #23 I wonder if Bill would play him at LT for a year before kicking him inside to replace Shaq Mason, who will inevitably get paid a lot more money next offseason than Bill would pay.
This draft, more than any I can remember, is not about landing players at positions of top immediate need...it's simply about landing the best football players for this system over the next 4-5 seasons. The Patriots roster is going to turn over in a big way very soon. I understand why fans look at immediate need, but for most positions the rookie year contributions will be the least productive season from these draft picks. The team can't afford to take lesser players just because their position matches up with the current depth chart. I count QB, RB, WR, TE, OT, OG, DE, DT, LB, CB, S as spots that could be a big need by the next draft, and since Bill drafts more for year two contributions than year one I could see any of those position being selected in the first round if the right player is on the board (although Ridley is the only guy I could see them picking in the 1st as a WR, and I don't think any RB's/TE's will be worth it).
My linebacker target is Fred Warner (most likely at #43), or Leighton Vander Esch if his medicals check out.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Apr 9, 2018 16:04:52 GMT -5
I broke my left talus snowboarding, and the doctor told me snowboarding is basically the only way that injury occurs (something about the bindings putting pressure on the middle of your foot). Way to jinx the Sox, doc.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Mar 19, 2018 17:12:49 GMT -5
Not sure how you can question our depth last year. We had a ton of injuries that hit our D hard. Our depth allowed us to still make the Superbowl. I have no Problem with paying core special team players. Hence why I didn't say anything about Bolden, King or Ebner being signed. That was 4.2 million of our cap space. Patterson is now another 3.25 million in cap space. That's over 25% of our available cap space for the year. If your looking to be depth how does that make sense? That's likely more than Hill and Tobin will make combined. Look at where we found Slater and Ebner. You can get great special teamers for cheap, in late rounds of the draft or even as undrafted guys. 3.25 million is top of the mark for special team players. They might be able to run a few plays a game for Patterson, trick type plays. I just don't see how he's a great fit as a WR. Brady likes WRs that run great routes. Are where they should be at all times. That is the exact opposite of Patterson. He's more of a throw it to me if I get open type player. He's just not a good WR, even though he has great size and speed. I wanted a bigger receiver, but this seems like a horrible fit. Yes after you pay him the 250,000 workout bonus you can cut him and only be on the hook for 250,000, not 3.25 million. Thing is by then most good free agents are already signed. For example you won't be able to sign an OT like Fleming then if Tobin sucks and we havd injuries. Losing the ability to use that 3.25 million now is a loss. What you can get with that money now is far greater than later during camp. The NFL keeps changing the rules so special teams matter less and less,yet Bill seems to be pouring more and more resources into them each year. It makes no sense. If less and less kick offs keep getting returned, doesn't the value of a good gunner go down? The players who missed the majority of the year were Hightower, McClellin, Valentine, Rivers, and Cyrus Jones on defense. It's bad injury luck but the Patriots have been hit harder with injuries in the past. They lost one elite player (Hightower), two rotation guys (McClellin & Valentine), a high upside but very raw rookie (Rivers), and a ST guy who at best would compete for slot duties and serve as depth at CB (Cyrus). We can add Ninkovich to the losses, but I have to question how much he could've helped when he suggested multiple times during the early part of the season he was open to returning but admitted the Patriots never reached out. Also, he retired in camp, and it couldn't have been a complete shock to the team, the guy was busted for PEDs the year before and his play declined. They also lost Langi after the car accident, but he wasn't making an impact before the injury. Then, in the playoffs Jonathan Jones got hurt, and while he was a key loss the other guys who played all year were mostly healthy for the playoffs, so this was the only injury they didn't have much time to plan and adapt to. The offensive talent they were missing during the playoffs (Edelman, Cannon, Mitchell, Garcia) vs. the defensive talent missing (Hightower, McClellin, Rivers, Valentine, and the Jones combo) was not nearly as significant as the play between the units would indicate. The difference is the offense had quality depth behind these guys while the defense had to rely on scrap heap/replacement level guys who weren't even here for the start of camp. How many contributors were there on offense who arrived after OTAs? I count Dorsett and zero other guys. Meanwhile, the defense had real roles for six of those players: Marsh (before being cut), Lee, Harrison, Bademosi, Harris, and Jean Francois during the year. They simply didn't have sufficient depth on defense at the LB or DE positions entering camp. The DT group looked good (Branch killed them) and the CB/safety groups looked very good, but there's no arguing the LB/DE groups were the clear weak spots on the depth chart entering camp. The Hightower injury was hardly a shock, and with his durability issues they needed more depth. It never made sense to carry both Roberts and Harris behind Hightower. While McClellin and Rivers could've helped make things better, the Van Noy/Roberts/Marquis Flowers group surpassed expectations, so this wasn't even the rock bottom scenario for the LBs. As far as the Patterson contract, Ebner is coming off a mid/late season ACL tear, is strictly a ST guy, and he received an actual commitment...if he doesn't return as the same guy they'll be on the hook for 1.8m dead money on the cap the next two seasons, and if he plays he'll still be a 2.2m and 2.8m cap hit the next two seasons. I believe King was going to be a restricted FA, so he's a bit different too. Patterson's cap number is written in pencil, so it's a completely different situation as they aren't locked in. They'll be able to get Patterson in the system before OTAs, evaluate him through August and then make a decision. I think they'll cut him or restructure if they don't think he'll be a contributor/credible depth on offense, although I guess there's a chance Bill falls in love with his ST ability if he views him as an elite piece on multiple ST groups, but certainly not as a kick returner only. If they ask him to restructure in late August he'll have less leverage than he'd have if the Raiders cut him and we approached him as a free agent right now, so the trade value in terms of the pick downgrade is worth the no risk free tryout with the option to buy. Just because we traded for him doesn't mean they are committed to him, in the same way they weren't afraid to cut Ealy, and in a similar way to Hill and Tobin being signed but not being roster locks. I'm also confident Cordarelle Patterson is not keeping them from signing Fleming or Waddle or another comparable player in the same way Dwayne Allen and Mike Gillislee aren't keeping them from signing those players. The team only signs players at values they like, and they can easily create cap space for those type of mid-tier deals.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Mar 19, 2018 11:17:15 GMT -5
I actually like the Patterson trade. The Patriots can still cut him with no dead money and only be out for his 250k workout bonus and moving down in the late part of the draft. This also gives them decent leverage to restructure/extend his deal at some point before the season starts if he appears to be a good fit. It seems like Bill is securing his special teams units now so he can concentrate on offensive and defensive contributors in the draft, rather than upgrading high round draft prospects based on their special teams versatility. There's little doubt other teams will usually look to boot the ball out of the end zone to avoid Patterson returns, but he might play up in the late season/playoff cold weather home games where the ball becomes harder and the wind/elements make kicks weaker.
If Patterson is only a kick returner his salary is obviously too high, but I don't think it's a lock that's all he is. I can see him being a core special teamer, he has blazing speed and great athleticism so he can profile on all/multiple ST units, and he has experience as a gunner. The Patriots have paid Slater and Ebner good money (Slater in the past/Ebner recently), so if Patterson is a more expensive but more versatile Slater replacement I'd prefer that to overpaying a 33 year old Slater.
I really doubt Patterson will be getting regular snaps at WR with the stacked group they already have, but I have to think Josh will get creative looks for him. Ironically Patterson and Amendola are the only receivers in football the last two years to have a catch rate of 73% or higher while catching 80+ balls. Patterson is a poor route runner which is a bad fit with Tom, but we know McDaniels loves his jet sweeps and screens which fit Patterson well, and Josh has put unconventional players in the backfield for certain looks (remember Aaron Hernandez in the backfield?) and Patterson has experience doing that as well. The fact that he played in poor offensive schemes in Minne/Oakland give me some hope of offensive upside. I think Bill either loves his profile as a core special teamer and/or thinks he can be a contributor on offense, even if a limited/gadget type role is his ultimate offensive upside here. With him and Britt it appears Bill is trying to diversify his WR group with some size + athleticism combos. While it's possible Bill overvalues special teams there's no doubt he has one of the best eyes for special teams talent evaluation in NFL history, so targeting Patterson has me intrigued .
The early moves feel like Bill wants to emphasize camp depth and competition this year, which makes sense after fielding one of his more shallow/top heavy 90 man rosters last camp.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Mar 16, 2018 11:43:37 GMT -5
Dwayne Allen and Mike Gillislee are probably going to be here for camp at least, their money doesn't become guaranteed until they make the 53 man roster. Since the Patriots always keep some room for in-season moves it makes a lot of sense to maintain depth and see how they look, and they can always cut them later in August to open up that cap flexibility. Also, if they are going to restructure and keep them, it makes more sense to wait until opening day approaches and other teams have set rosters, the players will have less leverage. I think Allen stays at a reduced number as they could use his blocking with the LT situation being sketchy. I wouldn't be shocked if Gillislee returns, but I hope they'll draft a RB or two in the mid rounds instead.
Clayborn has an extensive injury history that should cap his earning power. He's not an elite rusher by any means but I like his versatility to rush from the inside or edge. He's a very different player than Deatrich Wise or Derek Rivers, so I'd like the skill set with the current group. There aren't many players who are capable of 10+ sacks in this system, the best Patriots defenses have 4-5 players chipping in more than 5 sacks and generate pressure on multiple levels. I actually like Deatrich Wise to lead the team in sacks next season if he gets enough playing time which will depend on the acquisitions. The key for sack/pressure production will be for the DT's and LB's to provide better run defense on early downs and get the offense into more obvious passing situations. Hopefully having two corners who are good at man press will allow the coaches to get a bit more aggressive in terms of dialing up the pressure.
Ebron is very intriguing but his limitations as a blocker make him a questionable fit here, although Aaron Hernandez (I know, I know) carved out a very nice role with the same limitations. For some reason multiple reporters suggested Ebron might not even make this visit as he had two scheduled before NE, but if Bill signs him count me as excited. I look at the TE#2 spot as a top 5 or 6 need on this team at the moment, and even if Allen is retained I count him more as an extra tackle than a pass catcher.
Also, with the Bademosi signing by the Texans the Pats can now sign a 6 round comp FA contract without losing any comp picks as they are now in line for 2 3rds and 3 6ths but teams can only get up to 4 comp picks.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Feb 20, 2018 14:10:25 GMT -5
I'm going to go out on a limb and give the hot take: the Red Sox will regret selling Babe Ruth more than Bryce Brentz.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Feb 11, 2018 18:06:50 GMT -5
Boras has already denied the 5/100 report. Boras has denied every report, hasn't he? I don't know why we'd expect Boras to be transparent while he's playing a game of chicken, it would be self defeating to be honest and transparent.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Feb 5, 2018 23:35:38 GMT -5
Todd Frazier barely got more than Mitch Moreland, and while he's a flawed player he's easily better than Moreland. I'd much rather have Frazier at that deal than Moreland for his deal.
|
|
|