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Post by beasleyrockah on Jan 20, 2018 12:27:45 GMT -5
I think people are underestimating how much more appealing JD Martinez is to AL teams. I'm sure there are NL teams who would live with his defensive limitations in the short term, but committing 5-6 years to JD Martinez The Outfielder is a scary proposition. He's an ideal DH candidate right now: his elite offensive production would stay in tact, and it would mitigate his only issues (defense/durability). I'd like him for 5/125 as a DH, but if the Red Sox were an NL team it'd be closer to 5/100, because there would be a legit shot of him being a platoon player in years 3-5 if his defense continues to decline with age.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jan 20, 2018 11:56:27 GMT -5
New Approach: The Red Sox have a large chunk of money they are willing to spend in 2017. They are trying to spend that on JDM. Pull out of that sweepstakes and “over-pay” Greg Holland on a 1 year deal with a player option ($15mish a year?). He was lights out last year in Colorado in his first year back from TJS until he tired the last 2 months of the year. When you’re in a race, you always end up trying to trade for bullpen arms. You and everyone else in the league. Sign that arm now and trade for the bat if you need to. Here are the advantages to this approach: 1. Avoid over paying JDM. A guy who you can’t even count on to play 150 games a year. 2. Saves money for a better free agent class next year. 3. Allows you to have Holland - Smith and Thornburg before Kimbrel. Can manage innings to keep guys fresh for the playoffs. 4. Gives time to evaluate the health and effectiveness of all your starters not named Sale. JDM won’t matter if this doesn’t go well. 5. Lets you see how the young bats perform. Mookie - bounce back to MVP type? Devers - can he hit like a veteran already? Bogey - does a healthy wrist and New fly ball approach tap into his power? Beni - does he advance? There are so many questions that signing a suspect contract for JDM makes no sense to me. Greg Holland turned down the qualifying offer ($17.4m) and the total commitment/years are going to be the most important factor to him, it's extremely unlikely he'll settle for a one year deal. Also, many teams would be willing to pay him qualifying offer money for one year, and those teams wouldn't have Kimbrel. If he's going to take a one year deal to hit the market again it'll be in a place where he can close.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jan 19, 2018 16:13:59 GMT -5
I'm sure Nick Caserio is relishing these scout team QB reps.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jan 11, 2018 16:30:11 GMT -5
I think the max contract is the single worst element of NBA roster construction. The idea that LeBron James should be forced to settle for the same max deals as guys who are barely all star caliber talents is insane. Every team needs to spend money, and most teams have zero chance at signing these elite players, so inevitably the great teams get undervalued superstars while the bad teams are forced to give max deals to the best players they can get. The NBA certainly isn't succeeding just because of their roster construction rules, the average fan doesn't know about luxury tax implications or trade exceptions, they just like the personalities, current game, etc. Fans might like super teams, and maybe it makes a league more popular, but the roster construction in the NBA is terribly flawed from a competitive standpoint...any league where bad expiring contracts are seen as trade assets is doing it wrong. The NBA would be infinitely more competitive if they ditched the max deal in exchange for some type of franchise tag provision.
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Boras
Jan 10, 2018 21:48:50 GMT -5
Post by beasleyrockah on Jan 10, 2018 21:48:50 GMT -5
Owners would rather give RARE players long term deals than give up a year of control to ALL their players.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jan 10, 2018 12:08:13 GMT -5
Mike Reiss mentioned the Patriots didn't like the way the Browns handled the process of their previous trade (Collins). Belichick likes to move quickly, and Cleveland wasn't capable of conducting business like that. Now, it certainly looks like Bill was foolish to leave such a haul on the table, but we should also remember the Browns are the same team that failed to execute the McCarron trade and then lied about it. It feels like Bill didn't respect their operation and stubbornly refused to work with them as a result, even if he could've maximized the return by dealing with their BS.
If it's true that Belichick decided to trade Jimmy the very same day he was dealt, his skepticism of the Browns being able to execute a deal in time may have actually been warranted...of course, the other argument would be that he should've engaged them earlier to avoid this type of deadline.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jan 7, 2018 12:58:22 GMT -5
He hit .315/.358/.553 in 2014, and .307/.373/.553 in 2016, in what world are those not "good years" for a DH acquisition? For another perspective, since his breakout in 2014*, JD Martinez has a higher wRC+ than David Ortiz did from 2014-2016 (148 & 146). JD has hit .300/.362/.574 over that time, while Ortiz hit .284/.373/.565. The only negatives are his defense and the fact he hasn't played more than 120 games the past two seasons, but given he'll be the primary DH those aren't too concerning right now. Jay Bruce simply isn't close to the type of hitter than JD has been over the past four seasons. *Edited previous statistical mistake
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Post by beasleyrockah on Dec 13, 2017 13:11:13 GMT -5
I think it's ridiculous that people are trying to downplay Stanton's talent, but I do think he's more of an injury risk than most, especially if he's going to be play the outfield with regularity. Many people keep suggesting his only injury history is getting hit in the face, but this guy had some knee and hamstring injuries as well. In his seven full seasons (excluding the partial rookie call up year) he's managed to play 125 games or more just three times, and I don't think it's a lock that he'll play more in his 30s simply due to better luck. He is a massive human being, and maybe that has more to do with the durability issues than simple bad luck (outside of freak accidents like the hit by pitch, of course).
For a local perspective, since Opening Day 2011 Dustin Pedroia has played 61 more games than Stanton.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Dec 12, 2017 12:46:11 GMT -5
Logan Morrison's home/road splits were insane last year. He hit 21 homers in 221 PA with 45K/39BB on the road against RHP, and he hit 27 of his 38 homers overall on the road. Throughout his career he has consistently been a better hitter on the road, but this past season was crazy.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Dec 10, 2017 18:05:20 GMT -5
It might be time to call the Marlins and ask exactly who else they'll deal in order to move some of their bad contracts. I can't imagine who they'd part with in order to get rid of the Chen contract.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Dec 9, 2017 11:14:07 GMT -5
When was the last time the splashy offseason acquisition helped a team win the World Series? Recently, all the WS winners have been primarily led by players who were already with that organization simply improving. The Astros and Cubs were examples of younger teams coming up together and finally breaking out, and the Royals were similar except their breakout happened a bit later than those other two teams. Before them, the Giants and 2013 Red Sox were all about value acquisitions and internal improvement from their established players. It feels like the last team to win a WS after making the high profile moves of the offseason was the 2009 Yankees, and that was almost a different game.
The Yankees got tougher to beat, but the game changes very quickly and things rarely play out as predicted.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Dec 4, 2017 12:36:31 GMT -5
What do you mean by "back away?" Are you saying you don't feel he should be platooned initially to see if he is both healthy and can produce if the team were to invest near $237m? If he shows he can hit- great. Not only health - do you really know / can you trust to him to tell you about his health before he reaches the ab threshold? And what else does he bring to the team? Health, age big risks and he doesn't do anything else. So he's not a good risk. Do you think it's a good risk to invest so much in the team and pin your hopes on him? And what about next year? You feel he is okay for another $22.75m? I just see there are so many reasons why "you shouldn't" other than if you want to stay under the cap. Why don't you think for the amount of money the SOx might invest (near $237m) that he wouldn't be a huge risk? In order to platoon Hanley you'll almost certainly need the platoon partner to be your secondary acquisition this offseason, as the primary acquisition will fill the void of 1B/DH (whichever Hanley doesn't play) full time. There just aren't many options available for a short term/modest cost that are much better bets than Hanley. I guess they could sign JDM and, say, Logan Morrison, but that'll put them right near that payroll threshold without any additional depth moves and little flexibility for in-season moves. Everyone can acknowledge the risk of Hanley, but this team will need to take some gambles while assembling the roster, and it's about what players you choose to gamble on at this point. For example, if you allocate all your resources in adding two 1B/DH bats this offseason, you'll need to gamble at 2B on Marco Hernandez (or other internal options), or the health/recovery of Pedroia. If they keep Swihart over Leon they'll need to gamble on Vazquez not getting injured or Swihart becoming a reliable catcher out of nowhere. If there are any injuries to the three outfielders they'll have Brentz and little else as depth. They'll likely have no viable fallbacks in the event of a Bogaerts or Devers injury, other than playing guys who shouldn't be starting like Holt or Marrero. Sure, Hanley is a bigger injury risk than the younger players, but if you allocate all your resources to multiple 1B/DH types the roster flexibility is limited, and the club will still be vulnerable in many spots with just one injury. If they gamble on Hanley being a capable DH next season and make their primary acquisition an above average 1B, they could add key depth at other positions, or simply maintain the salary flexibility for in-season moves that will almost certainly be needed at some point. I definitely think Hanley is staying put, as I can't think of a single team that could use Hanley (or values him) more than the Red Sox, and I doubt any team wants to risk the vesting option.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Dec 2, 2017 12:38:01 GMT -5
Everything Telson said, plus the Red Sox are in the unique position of having the rotation depth to offer a 6 man rotation to maximize his unique skill set. More recovery time between his starts would allow him a better chance to hit. I'm skeptical the Red Sox would offer this, but it would probably take this type of unique pitch for the Red Sox to land him. It would certainly be must see TV (unless/until he fails).
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 15, 2017 23:13:03 GMT -5
Since 4/1/14 JDM and Stanton have an identical 148 wRC+, and are only separated by 30 PA's during that time. I think it's hard to argue that either player projects to be a meaningfully better hitter than the other during the next couple years (Steamer disagrees with me FWIW). Stanton walks more and hits a few more homers, while JDM makes up the difference by getting a lot more hits. The market for JDM would have to go insane in order to make trading significant talent AND absorbing Stanton's deal the superior option between the two.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 14, 2017 1:01:18 GMT -5
Is there anyone who wouldn't be willing to promise Ohtani roughly half the DH starts if it would get him to sign here? I'd be worried about the risk/workload if he was commanding a huge contract, but for the acquisition cost they should be willing to do whatever he wants if he'd come here. If he could actually pull off the double duty it'd be a huge attraction for ratings/general team interest, not to mention the obvious on-field value to his team. I'd root for the guy to succeed even if he signed with the Yankees, it'd be great for the game as much as it'd hurt as a Red Sox fan.
If maximizing his plate appearances is his main priority some team should consider a 6 man rotation to give him the best chance to succeed. It's hard to figure out a great plan with a traditional rotation, but with a six man rotation he could rest the day before and after his starts while DH'ing exactly half the games, and it'd scale back his pitching workload to a more manageable situation. The other starters would likely be upset initially, but cutting back their workload might allow them to be more effective in the long term even if their traditional stats suffer due to fewer starts/innings. If this guy is even a league average DH and a mid-rotation starter he'd have enormous surplus value at the contract he'll command, and his ceiling is well beyond that outcome.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 11, 2017 12:31:37 GMT -5
I'm a bit surprised there hasn't been more chatter around Joey Votto so far. I know his age and contract are high risk, but strictly for next season he's a better fit than Stanton or JDM. Instead of trading JBJ, or trying to make Hanley the full time 1B, they could add the truly elite offensive piece at the position of need while not sacrificing talent from the current MLB team.
I don't know if the Reds would be content to deal him for a minimal return if a team absorbed his contract, and I'm not sure if he actually wants to be traded, but as far as a fit for the next year or two it's tough to find a better realistic option given the current team needs. The back end of his contract might be an albatross, but at least the risk/reward lines up with the current Red Sox window. If they strike out with JDM, or if Boras wants to drag the process well into January, it seems like he'd be an intriguing alternative as Dombrowski seems to move fast on his big acquisitions.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 7, 2017 10:48:43 GMT -5
It feels like Stanton's opt out isn't getting enough attention. We all know the downside risk of his long term contract, but his opt out caps the upside as well. In order to trade significant talent and absorb his contract the Red Sox need to bank on him being a perennial MVP candidate in the short term at minimum. The problem is if Stanton can be that productive he'll certainly opt out in three years, which caps the upside of any trade. Having one of the truly elite players at 3/77m certainly has a good deal of surplus value, but a lot of these trade proposals are seemingly expecting this scenario to take place without considering the downside risk or the possibility that this past season is Stanton's ceiling and won't be reached again. If the opt out didn't exist you could dream on elite production in the short term with a tradeable contract in a few years, or the possibility of actually returning positive value over the life of the contract. The problem is if Stanton opts in to the deal it means almost by default you'd have a negative value contract, not an asset, in three years or less.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 2, 2017 11:56:50 GMT -5
The Patriots really need to nail some draft picks in this next draft. You can only have so many mediocre drafts before your team is depleted a few years later. Accounting for the trade of Brissett (which doesn't look good), Cyrus Jones, Vincent Valentine, Malcolm Mitchell, Derek Rivers, and Antonio Garcia are five of the top six NE draft picks over the past two years. They are all likely out for the season with injuries, and several are on their way out of the league. I don't understand all this Tom Brady falling off a cliff talk. Brady's arm is as strong as ever, and he would be a serviceable starter even without it (see Philip Rivers). I'm more concerned with the Patriots inability to acquire healthy and long term contributors through the draft.[/b] I agree with the larger point, they need to hit on the next few draft classes, but I'm not worried about their ability to draft based on the past few classes. Between the traded picks and the stripped picks they haven't exactly been in a position to nail the draft the past few years. Of the picks you named only Cyrus looks like a true bust, and only Mitchell has an injury situation that causes real concern for his future (beyond missing valuable development time). Another way of looking at it is Rivers and Garcia are bonus talents for the next crop of rookies, and both should be at full strength next season. When you don't have first round picks and you pick at the end of the rounds you need to gamble on sketchy health situations sometimes, but even having said that it's not like all these guys were red flagged with injuries, they've had some bad luck too.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 18, 2017 22:15:55 GMT -5
Has anyone ever said that the refs or umpires decided to hand a game to Boston? Please. Well, to be fair, that's exactly what the majority of Jets fans are saying after Sunday's game.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 18, 2017 11:34:33 GMT -5
The one positive is the Red Sox now have an early season rotation spot up for grabs, so they're a more appealing destination for the Fister types. It'd be hard to convince a pitcher with multiple suitors to sign here with the five rotation spots all locked up, so the opportunity to start the season in the rotation could be the difference between signing a guy you kinda like vs. taking whoever is left over.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 16, 2017 14:07:45 GMT -5
Managed for 12 years vs never managed. It's not complicated Bobby Valentine had a ton of experience too.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 11, 2017 12:38:07 GMT -5
The Red Sox couldn't bring Farrell back, he would've lacked the job security this team needs from its manager in order to properly utilize the roster for next season.
The biggest challenge they face is devising a plan to keep Sale and Pomeranz effective into October, as well as keeping Price (and hopefully Rodriguez) healthy throughout the season. If the plan is to give these guys all the starts they can handle, and to let each individual outing's performance dictate how long they'll stay in the game, I see no reason to expect significantly better versions of Sale and Pomeranz entering next postseason. Yes, you have to get there first, but this team won't win in the postseason if they can't the normal versions of their best pitchers. They have a track record of hitting a wall late in the season.
I'm not sure what plan is best for the rotation, but I'd like to see them try something different. I'd be ok with trying a six man rotation the first couple months of the season, or planning skipped starts every so often, or planning for certain starts to be less than 5 innings or under a certain amount of pitches. The point is I'd be open to trying anything new, because I don't think the most effective way to utilize the rotation next season is to treat them all like workhorses throughout the season and give them everything they can handle until they simply wear down and decline in command or stuff/velocity.
I'd also like to see the new manager use Kimbrel in high leverage non-save situations from time to time, not just because it'll be the right baseball decision, but to give him more experience in situations that might not feel comfortable to him at this time. Inevitably he'll have to enter a big game with runners on, or a tied game, and I don't think they should wait until it's a game that matters the most. This desire isn't just because he blew the last game, it seems like situations outside of the traditional save have given him more trouble than they should considering how great the guy is.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 9, 2017 16:21:38 GMT -5
Man....Reddick this year, Coco Crisp last year...watch out for former Red Sox outfielders in the 2018 ALDS y'all.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 8, 2017 17:21:04 GMT -5
Here's to Porcello channeling a 2004 Derek Lowe style postseason run.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 3, 2017 19:25:24 GMT -5
Gutless performance by Severino. GUTLESS.
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