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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 6, 2016 22:18:50 GMT -5
Xander is channeling the pitch recognition skills of Will Middlebrooks.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 2, 2016 22:04:07 GMT -5
I'd love to know if they made the decision to stick with the trade before or after the Wright injury. He was injured on the 7th, so that could certainly fall under "early August", but if it was before his injury they could've plugged in Buchholz as the Pomeranz replacement behind Price/Porcello/Wright/Eduardo.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Sept 21, 2016 11:50:47 GMT -5
An injured Garoppolo is still likely much better than an outside street free agent QB with no time for preparation. Garoppolo likely can't make all his throws so the offense will be scaled back, but they'd be scaling it back much more if they had some TJ Yates type running things. I haven't heard anything about the severity of Garoppolo's AC joint sprain, but other QB's have played through this injury (last season Bortles and Roethlisberger both played through it). It'd be disappointing if Garoppolo wasn't at least able to serve as Brissett's backup tomorrow night.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 16, 2016 12:55:48 GMT -5
Devers for a few months of Rich Hill sounds more masochistic than Machiavellian.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 14, 2016 19:27:16 GMT -5
This is a great trade... any time you can get a young all-star for a kid in A-Ball you have to do it. Division Series here we come! I'm not sure if you're serious with the young all star thing so I don't want to jump on this comment too much in case it's sarcasm, but for perspective Brock Holt is like 6 months older and has a recent all star appearance. I'm not sure how many kids in A-ball resemble Espinoza either.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 14, 2016 17:54:23 GMT -5
I would've liked Pomeranz just fine this past offseason when the going rate was a Yonder Alonso type.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 12, 2016 13:37:49 GMT -5
Dave Cameron is trying to objectively compile a trade value list, and while it clearly isn't perfect he has Benintendi ahead of Teheran. Moncada hasn't been named on the list yet, so presumably he'll be named a top 30 trade asset.
I remember a certain poster suggesting a fair value trade for Teheran would require Moncada + Benintendi + Swihart, and that if the Red Sox didn't pay that package there would be something like Bregman (also ranked ahead of Teheran on this list) + Reed + Tucker from HOU, or Mazara (also ranked ahead of Teheran on this list) + Gallo + Brinson from TEX, or Joc Pederson (also ranked ahead of Teheran on this list) + De Leon + Barnes from LAD. I'm pretty sure the other players mentioned in straight up deals like Arenado, Trout, and Machado will be comfortably ahead of Teheran on the list too. I'd suggest this poster has really underrated the value of these truly elite prospects (not to mention Trout, Machado, and Arenado).
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 2, 2016 11:54:14 GMT -5
Okay say it's ST of 2018. Where is Hanley Ramirez? Where is Travis Shaw? Where is Panda, Where is Sam Travis? Where is Moncado? Devers ETA is 2018 although I would tend to think it would be nearer the end of the season. He was off to a slow start but he's rebounded since then but his overall numbers are still down. That's why he'll be targeted by other teams the same way most of us here focus on guys who are having a down year aka bying low even though you still believe in the player. It's the first place to seek value. I love prospects and this is the closest I recall a team having all the positional players come up through the farm, but we will within a few years have positional redundancy somewhere between 3B/1B & DH. I've already posted the above elsewhere but if you think it's still wrong make your own projections and I'll point out the redundancy to you. Hanley will be in the last year of his contract. Sandoval might not be capable of playing 3B, and his bat doesn't project to be adequate at 1B/DH so he's as likely to be DFA'd as having a role on the club at that point. Sam Travis has some promise but he's far from a lock to be a quality starting 1B, and he's certainly not good enough to be penciled in as a long term starter at this point. Even if you pencil in a shift to 3B for Moncada (still a big assumption), you have two spots for Devers/Travis/Shaw plus one year of Hanley and two of Sandoval. As you said, Devers is unlikely to be ready before close to the end of the 2018 season, so this still gives Sam Travis ample opportunity to establish himself, and adds the minimum level of competition for the corner INF/DH spots going forward. In this scenario you'd be looking at controlling Devers for 2019-2024, so guys like Sandoval and Hanley should have no role in that discussion. Trading Devers really shouldn't be impacted by the internal options they have, but whether the Red Sox believe this is his peak trade value. Trading him now shouldn't be influenced by the current internal options, because if you believe he's an elite talent that will develop, he's going to get a job over guys like Sam Travis, that entire group is unlikely to ALL be quality starters, someone or multiple people will be replaceable/upgradeable placeholders. In a world where all these guys thrive and Devers develops into even a borderline all star caliber player none of this matters, because the Red Sox would have an embarrassment of riches and Devers will have more trade value than now as he'll be MLB ready at that point. It's also entirely possible Moncada doesn't fit at 3B and projects to be a plus OF, in which case one of Benintendi/Betts/JBJ or Moncada himself has to be the odd man out. In this scenario, having only Sam Travis and Travis Shaw (plus short term older versions of Hanley/Sandoval) for 1B/3B/DH is a problem and becomes their weakness. There's another scenario where injuries turn Dustin Pedroia into Chase Utley/David Wright and one of Moncada/Betts plays 2B. The moral of the story is it's way too early to be suggesting 1B/3B/DH are good bets to be filled internally without Devers from say August 2018-2024.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 1, 2016 15:46:21 GMT -5
This trade deadline talk is already reminding me of a few years ago when the Gary Tanguay types of the world wanted to trade Bogaerts for Cliff Lee. It's impossible to respect any argument that cites players as "just prospects", as if Yoan Moncada and, say, Michael Chavis deserve to be grouped together. It's like saying Brock Holt and Mike Trout are both proven players, it has no value.
EDIT: And while we're at it, how about trading a proven player like Brock Holt for just a prospect like Giolito or Glasnow? I mean, they are just prospects after all.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jun 29, 2016 10:10:24 GMT -5
We've had that discussion like 3 times and that wasn't the one I was referring, but I was wrong in another post you sure did. Teheran also has out performed his xFIP for 4 straight years. At what point do you have to think that xFIP just doesn't predict a pitcher like Teheran that well?Last season he had a 4.04 ERA and 4.19 xFIP so it was pretty close. This season he's allowing a .209 BABIP, the best he's ever done over a full season is .267, and that year was sandwiched between two seasons at .288 each. He's also sporting his best strand rate ever. Just last season he didn't outperform his peripherals, and he looked like a bottom of the rotation guy. It's not like he put up a 4+ ERA and had bad luck, he earned that. The question is how much is he earning this very good season, and how predictive is it going forward. It's reasonable to think in the short term he might continue to outperform his peripherals, but it's not reasonable to think it'll happen to the degree he's experiencing this season, and certainly not reasonable to think he will continue to do this indefinitely. Matt Cain used to be the poster boy for outperforming his peripherals, he consistently did it for eight seasons, but now he has four consecutive seasons of having an ERA higher than his xFIP.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jun 28, 2016 15:02:19 GMT -5
So the Red Sox options are to trade for Teheran or no one at all? I'm pretty sure decent #4/5 pitchers can be acquired in the next month without dealing Moncada or Benintendi.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jun 10, 2016 15:16:31 GMT -5
Exactly, Trill. It should, by now, be assumed that we've said bye-bye to reasonability when it comes to sports and the money involved. If you haven't come to grips with that (since it's NOT going to change) maybe it's not the right entertainment for you. The ironic part is if the draft was abolished a guy like Groome would make even more money. The draft isn't player friendly. Of course everyone here understands draft picks represent *some* risk. So do the so called "proven" players (Carl Crawford says hi).
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jun 10, 2016 14:50:46 GMT -5
Nothing like giving $3-4 million to a 17-year-old with "immaturity and idiocy" (per Keith Law) issues. What could possibly go wrong? The same Keith Law had him as the second best player in this draft, said most of the rumors surrounding him were false, and said again today he would've drafted him top 3 even with the inside knowledge he has about his "character issues".
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jun 6, 2016 16:48:32 GMT -5
Yeah I think too many people are forgetting that Hill hasn't handled a full season workload in almost a decade. I'm rooting for the guy and think he'll keep pitching well until he breaks down, but I'm not confident that at age 36 he'll jump his workload over 100 innings from last season without breaking down. He's a rental in the purest form, and you've got to be confident he'll be pitching effectively in October for it to be worth a trade.
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Post by beasleyrockah on May 16, 2016 12:40:58 GMT -5
I'd be surprised if Benintendi skips AAA but it's not like posters here are the only people suggesting it. How many times have we read the Conforto track comparisons for Benintendi from various media members? Conforto skipped AAA, and Benintendi is 45 games away from matching Conforto's minor league total. Benintendi has been more impressive than Conforto was from a production standpoint, but the Mets have an entirely different situation and philosophy. He'd have to dominate in Portland for ~50 games, but if he lights it up and LF becomes a black hole for the big club most of us will probably be calling for it (and again, this assumes he continues to mash for the next two months in AA). If he has any type of adjustment period in Portland it'll be ruled out. It's a lot to ask of any prospect but it's becoming hard to bet against this guy.
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Post by beasleyrockah on May 2, 2016 12:21:46 GMT -5
Belichick isn't suspended, the roster is loaded and deep, and barring injury they'll have that Brady guy for 12 regular season starts. This team will make the playoffs, and there will be nothing sneaky about it. If anyone feels anxious over Brady's suspension go take a look at the other three AFC East team rosters and coaching staffs, that should do the trick.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Mar 19, 2016 13:32:49 GMT -5
I don't care about ST stats or results, but I have to say that my opinion on Castillo has only been reaffirmed this spring. He's a replacement level player in my eyes. He'll be a below average hitter because he simply can't get the ball off of the ground, he's always injured in some fashion, and he makes mental mistakes fairly often. I personally doubt his glove in LF will justify keeping him in the lineup. The good news is we have depth. Holt and Young obviously could handle an OF corner, and if Shaw can play LF that would be great too. Also, this gives me one more reason to root for Benintendi or Moncada to start the way they ended last year (as if I needed one). The Marlins also should have sold high on Yelich after 2014 or if he bounces back this year, but won't. His GB problems are similar to Castillo's. He's a lot younger, so he definitely has a better chance of figuring himself out at the plate, but his value was so high after his 2014 BABIP explosion that it was riskier to keep him than trade him. Again, just my opinion on these guys. I agree with the Castillo part but Yelich posted an even higher BABIP in 2015 than 2014. The guy has been incredibly consistent, posting the exact same wRC+ in each of his first three seasons (including his 2013 initial 62 game call up). You'd like to see more growth but he's a good hitter even if he never adds power and keeps hitting grounders at his current rate...he's going to carry a high BABIP. If Castillo became 90% of the hitter Yelich is I'd be thrilled.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Mar 3, 2016 14:08:16 GMT -5
The Dodgers remind me of the Red Sox and their "we have 5 aces" strategy last year. The strategy kinda makes some sense on paper. In practice, it looks pretty tough. In hindsight, it looks downright stupid. Which guy was Clayton Kershaw for the Red Sox last year?
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jan 26, 2016 15:01:05 GMT -5
This will be an unpopular opinion, but I don't know that OT should be all that high on their to-do list. Yes, their offensive line just got shredded, but I think the blame is just as much on the interior offensive lineman for not giving Brady a clean pocket to step up in as it is on Vollmer/Cannon for not holding up against two of the better edge rushers in the league, especially since the tackles were mostly left on an island all game. It's going to be tough to upgrade on Solder/Vollmer, and even if you want to upgrade on Cannon, you'll probably have to spend real money in free agency or spend a highish draft pick to do so. Given their other needs, I don't know that OT is the place to spend those resources. I agree in terms of the line play, depending on how the Patriots feel about Kline and Jackson they might be in the market for a starting guard (with Mason a lock to start at the other spot). You can dream on Solder/Vollmer staying healthy and taking enough snaps so that the 3rd OT wouldn't be a big concern for next season. Cannon's salary is real money though, just bringing him back at the current number is a big investment for the 3rd OT spot. I believe Vollmer is entering the final year of his deal and Solder is only signed through 2017, so there's some long term planning to factor in there too. If they walk away from Cannon they'll need to put OT relatively high on the priority list just due to the cost of competent tackles, adding a stopgap veteran would just push the need a year into the future. I don't think they'll enter next offseason with an expiring Vollmer and Cannon while Solder enters the final year of his deal without the possibility of a franchise tag. The RB/WR/CB groups have bigger needs for sure, but upgrading the RB position and CB depth doesn't have to require a major investment. Either this offseason or next offseason the Patriots will have to spend big on the tackle position, even if it's just extending the current options.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jan 26, 2016 13:06:35 GMT -5
Depth at RB and WR are definitely more important, but improving the depth at TE is right up there with OT and CB for me. I'd love to see old friend Benjamin Watson return. I could see the team double dipping at RB and WR through the draft/FA/trades, they need short term and long term help at both positions. I'd like to see them add a more complete running back rather than just a one dimensional power back, but that's not a top priority.
CB depth is a huge need, they were lucky Butler and Ryan stayed healthy all year. Darryl Roberts was generating a lot of buzz last year, hopefully he comes back healthy and picks up where he left off. This defense should be fantastic next year with reasonable health.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Dec 2, 2015 20:18:06 GMT -5
Cameron misses the point here. As much as I hate to say it, Grumbleshoes is right. If you do indeed predict that the car will break down in that time period, then yes, you want to get rid of it before you have to make those final expensive payments. Another way of looking at it, if the Yankees would have let Sabathia sign elsewhere after he opted out, then the opt would have been benefited both CC (assuming another team paid him generously) and the Yankees correct? On top of that, that wouldn't have been that outlandish to predict at the time of the opt out, there were many concerns regarding his workload and performance projections as he aged. I for one remember being happy when the Yankees had to extend his years. The Red Sox just need to make sure they avoid that mistake. The opt-out CAN be good for the team....to say it is never good for the team is silly. The Eno Sarris article is somewhere in the middle by the way. The part you aren't acknowledging is trades exist. David Price isn't going to opt out unless he knows he'll definitely get more money by doing so. At that point, the Red Sox could trade him for real value if they didn't believe in him going forward. Not being able to trade a player with a favorable contract isn't a perk. People keep talking about the pressure the team would feel to retain him rather than dealing him if the opt-out didn't exist, but the same pressure will be there once he hits free agency (and probably slightly more pressure because they will only get a pick back instead of real talent). So under this scenario of events, the Red Sox still lose the benefit of being able to trade him. All of the people who keep arguing the opt-out can be good seem to forget that trades exist, or they add on absurd qualifiers like the team would be incapable of making a proper trade and the opt-out will save them from themselves. The only way this opt-out would be a positive is if Price somehow decided to opt-out of a favorable deal just to get off the team (which is about as likely as Craig opting for free agency this year). I guess he could completely misread the market and make a terrible decision too, but both of these possibilities are so remote they aren't worth discussing. The opt-out is a player friendly clause, and the Red Sox would benefit more by having the ability to trade an elite Price in three years than having to let him walk, everything else is just noise.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 23, 2015 13:13:41 GMT -5
Sure, Hanley bulked up last year, but so did Harper. So Moncada will either be incapable of playing the outfield or he'll win an MVP by the time he's 23.
But seriously, do you guys remember the 90s and early to mid 2000s? I saw plenty of muscular players handle the infield and outfield just fine.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 18, 2015 15:43:28 GMT -5
2. I really like the Kimbrel addition but I hate the cost even though I was comfortable dealing Margot/Guerra this winter.
I know a lot of people keep saying Margot + Guerra won't land a top starter alone, but that misses the point. If the Red Sox decide they have to trade for a top starter this winter or for the deadline, they now have less chips to use. Even if dealing Devers (for example) was always a requirement to get that pitcher, elite pitchers are almost always dealt for a package of talent. Instead of Margot being the #2, you now have to add a Benintendi to make it work. Instead of Guerra, you have to add a Kopech. Now of course it's not that black and white, individual teams have different needs and valuations. But flexibility is all about appealing to as many teams as possible, and they just dealt significant value.
Sure, the Red Sox still have enough young talent to deal for anyone, but having less options to deal makes it more difficult to make a trade the other team will accept that you still feel good about. Losing substantial value just because you have more young talent than most makes it somewhat easier to swallow, but it's still not the best way to go.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 17, 2015 13:37:15 GMT -5
Lets not forget the Royals just carried Alcides Escobar along with Infante and Rios getting significant AB's. Of their nine players with the most PA's on the season, four had a sub .300 OBP, and of those four Salvador Perez was by far the best while doing his best Saltalamacchia impression (with more contact and less patience). A team can clearly be successful with a couple of elite defenders who are below average hitters. The Royals had five above average hitters that turned into six once Zobrist was acquired, so as long as the Red Sox can have the same type of mix it can absolutely be successful.
EDIT: I'd also like to note that the Royals had only three players hit 20+ home runs, and none hit more than 22. You can win a championship in a variety of ways.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 17, 2015 13:05:55 GMT -5
He won't get into the HOF because of the steroid stuff. Fair or not that's the likely reality. Having to overcome that and the DH thing is the longest of long shots It's definitely too early to say that. The Hall of Fame just overhauled their voting system, and the perception of PEDs could change dramatically in a relatively short period of time. I wouldn't be surprised either way.
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