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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 17, 2016 14:58:15 GMT -5
Mediocre starters who probably have more difficulty in the AL are totally against it. On the same vain, 35+ year old hitters who still have the ability to put up good numbers, but can't field anymore are all for it.
I'd rather have more offense. I'd rather not see 99% of the pitchers not with-in one mile of the bat rack. I hate it for the pitcher (and to some degree for the owner) when a multi-million dollar pitcher has to be placed on the DL because he pulled a hammy running to 1st base.
I'm all for seeing an athlete do what he does best, and not what he does worse. Bad fielder and good hitter? I want to see good hitting. Good pitcher and injury prone pitcher.....keep the pitcher healthy and let him do what he does best.
One last thing, the DH being used by both leagues would permit premier hitters to stay in a line-up even when there is inter-league play and they are playing in the NL city. If you are looking for the most entertainment, there is no question a fan would like to see the exceptional hitter up at the plate 4 times per game instead of watching their pitcher hitting.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 16, 2016 12:03:15 GMT -5
The Orioles have a solid line-up and a strong bullpen, but a rotation that will allow them to finish last in the AL East. At least, I hope the team that finished last last year is not the same team that finished last last. Make sense?
If Bundy, Harvey, and Gausman don't live up to their hype, they could definitely be a cellar dweller. All 3 of those kids have great talent, but for one reason or another it hasn't happen yet.
Losing their best starter this off-season, but Chris Tillman has to have a big year or they are toast.
They better try real hard to extend Machado!!
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 15, 2016 14:21:25 GMT -5
THREE UP
1) Luis Alexander Basabe - I believe his power/speed combo will begin to play up even more, and he will be the guy that makes us forget Margot. Young and athletic...my favorite mix.
2) Pat Light - he will learn to command his splitter and become a solid valuable bullpen piece
3) Marc Brakeman - Marc will finally be healthy, productive, and wise
THREE DOWN
1) Sean Coyle - injury prone, big swing and miss, and running out of time
2) Karsten Whitson - hopefully healthy, but he better show something soon
3) Edwin Escobar - makes it this spring or heading somewhere else after a poor season
THREE GEMS
1) Lorenzo Cedrola - probably will be in GCL. Nice stats and very young. Interesting to see what we have state side.
2) Austin Glorius - already 22, but man he has a nice arm. It will be very interesting to see how he performs the whole year. He may end up in Portland by August
3) Travis Lakins - may fly through the system. Older, but finally healthy
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 13, 2016 21:04:03 GMT -5
WHAT no Brennan Boesch love??
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 10, 2016 19:13:09 GMT -5
It is a fun exercise to consider this swap, but most of us look at Soler's strikeouts and shudder. IMO his potential is huge, but until he makes more contact on a consistent basis, a team like the Sox may be VERY hesitant to make any move like this.
It just seemed to me, as the perfect swap.
I am more than fine giving Jackie a full year to show what he can do. I bet the staff feels the same way....especially the fly ball pitchers.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 4, 2016 13:10:22 GMT -5
With only 58 IP last year, what is the RS goal for his IP this year? I don't think he pitched in winter ball. I would think 100 to 110 innings. |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 4, 2016 8:33:09 GMT -5
Reports are the Sox aren't looking to make any more deals. Not surprising after they learned Swihart was only being seen as a complimentary piece in deals for top arms. The Sawdust Twins, Hanley and Panda proving untradeable doesn't help DDo's position either. They've got many pieces of their roster that must reestablish, or establish their true value. The three above, along with Buchholz, Porcello, Kelly, Castillo, and likely JBJ don't seen to have the kind of value on the market that we perceive them to have. It's worth investing a half season, if for no other reason than to gain value enhancement for all these roster pieces. I think cases for increased value can be made for all and that gain should be realized before any deals are considered. They don't need to win the offseason, they need to be in a position to compete. They are there by any competitive measure; and it will be worth going into the season with this group, then make any required adjustments mid year. Love that name! Hopefully it WON'T be appropriate this season. But very catchy! |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 3, 2016 16:20:14 GMT -5
Don't think we're a fit because we already are putting faith in too many guys with questionable innings ceilings. I do, Nomar, rationally know that I'm wrong. Just giving Norm a hard time! |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 3, 2016 16:09:33 GMT -5
My thoughts are always the same. Let someone like Owens or Johnson get their shot at becoming the next Cliff Lee. More to the point, at the 10,000 foot level, do the Sox need a 10th potential starter? Norm.....my man.....I have a big crush on Cliff Lee!! Actually I understand, but Norm......I love Cliff Lee!! |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 3, 2016 15:57:58 GMT -5
First.....I acknowledge this is not necessary for many of us, but man I like Cliff Lee. I would love to see the Sox work out a contract with him with incentives. This article was interesting today: www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/01/latest-cliff-lee-free-agent-comeback.htmlDo we have to have Lee to be successful? Probably not, but Lee at 80% would be an upgrade in my thinking. His command of the strike zone is amazing. No idea what kind of contract would entice him, but I would like to see them try. Your thoughts? |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 3, 2016 8:50:40 GMT -5
If the Dodgers would trade Ethier for Castillo, I'd probably do it. The Dodgers arguably could use a right-handed outfielder more than a left-handed one (Pederson and Crawford, their projected LF and CF staters, already hit lefty), and they could use another outfielder who can play center field (after Pederson, the next guys down on their center field depth chart are Enrique Hernandez (a converted second baseman) and Puig (better in a corner outfield spot)). That said, they already have one lefty-masher on their roster (Scott Van Slyke) and I'm not sure they want to take on the long-term salary commitment that Castillo represents. I actually like that deal. I wish we had a little more time to evaluate Rusney, but he does worry me. A Young/Ethier platoon could be really good. For the Dodgers to even consider it, I would believe we'd have to pay the whole freight on Ethier. |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 2, 2016 14:52:31 GMT -5
I agree with most of this, but I don't think it's a lack of power. His approach to date has been to use the pull swing in almost all situations. That leads to the lazy popups, and the overswing that buries a lot of the outside pitches. When I first watched him in the minors he was perfectly capable of an inside-out-swing that sent hard liners down the right field line. So I think he can adapt. As young as he is, he has time to build on his first two years, and he does seem to absorb advice. That is, after all, what hitting coaches are for. Some athletes you look at and you worry if they can adjust. Some you just know. Mookie is a "you just know". Betts is so mature and intelligent, I can't see him not learning and improving. He will have some ups and downs, but IMO the downs will not be very low. I see him walking more this year for many reasons. The opposing teams will also be adjusting and trying to find other weaknesses, and I wouldn't be surprised if he does walk more in the 1st third of the season. After he keeps getting on by BBs and hopefully steals second more consistently, they will start trying to get ahead early. With his running speed and bat speed, I can see him hitting above .300 for many years, if he can, at least, go opposite field once or twice every other game. Any way he does it, I want him on base wreaking havoc. He does not need to hit 25+ bombs. I want to see him score 110+ runs this season. I want to see him give us Johnnie Damon type output. |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 27, 2015 19:20:06 GMT -5
I don't see Buchholz on the roster to start 2017. I suspect, if they can't deal him at this year's deadline, they'll take advantage of the crappy FA class of 2016, and put him on the market. If they deal him mid year, the haul will be substantial. I'm not as down on Owens and especially Johnson as many here seem to be. I think Owens is on that typical tall, lanky lefty development time line that has them getting it together at 27, or so. Johnson will be a fair #4, or #5 starter when given the chance, imo. I personally am BIG on Brian Johnson. I predict by mid-season he will be in the rotation. |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 25, 2015 12:07:02 GMT -5
16 year old Lazaro Armenteros has already been offered by a Japanese League team 15 million. Corner outfielder with all 5 tools. The Cuban Bryce Harper? www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/lazaro-armenteros-mlb-showcase-cuban-prospect.htmlMLB has to rule whether he is eligible for this year's international harvest. He missed the deadline, and I'd love to have a chance to go after him the year after. Thoughts? |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 23, 2015 16:35:20 GMT -5
Thanks Chris. I guess he is a keeper! I did not have the HBP, and I have no idea what the constant is. I gather that changes year to year. The constant was 3.2 when created. Should change with the run environment. Edit: scale should match to your understanding of era. That was the point if it. Thanks Josh |
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 23, 2015 14:12:10 GMT -5
Remember that beauty is in the eye of the beerholder. Is that you Sam? |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 23, 2015 14:10:05 GMT -5
I need some help folks! I'm coming up with some strange numbers for Anderson Espinoza's FIP for 2015. Can you please help me figure this out. Is it possible to get a negative number (that's good by the way)? Just copied this formula: FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant. I hear 2.9 and under is great. Love to see what you stat guys get. Thanks Chris. I guess he is a keeper! I did not have the HBP, and I have no idea what the constant is. I gather that changes year to year. |
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 23, 2015 13:56:01 GMT -5
I need some help folks! I'm coming up with some strange numbers for Anderson Espinoza's FIP for 2015. Can you please help me figure this out. Is it possible to get a negative number (that's good by the way)?
Just copied this formula: FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant. I hear 2.9 and under is great.
Love to see what you stat guys get.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 21, 2015 14:58:16 GMT -5
Over due. I so thoroughly enjoyed watching him foul off 6 or 7 pitches and then hit a liner off the monster.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 21, 2015 14:55:48 GMT -5
In the past, I might have jumped at a deal to send JBJ to Chicago for Soler. I very badly wanted the Sox to get Soler when he was available to be signed. And I certainly would have been all over that deal in 2014. Now, I don't think I'd make that trade if I were DDo. I don't know that JBJ will ever be a reliable hitter. I know that he has long, long bouts where he's terrible. I know that he had a stretch where he hit like a superstar, and I know that he has a positive minor league track record in regards to hitting. So that gives me hope that JBJ can hit between .240 - .270 with some power - 15 HRs or so - and the Sox can use all the LH power they can get in the future, and some OBP as JBJ is willing to draw walks. And the guy can play amazing defense. He frees Betts up to play RF, which is kind of a secondary CF position at Fenway Park, and while Betts can be great in CF, JBJ is even a defensive upgrade on Betts. So you get a respectable OPS and tremendous defense. That's a lot of value. Soler would have to hit like a monster to make it worth losing JBJ, and if he's healthy, he might. I don't know that his OBP will be much better than JBJs, but I'm pretty sure his defense would be well below JBJ's and as a result the small step down defensively from JBJ to Betts in CF and the large dropoff in defense from Betts to Soler would be pretty impactful. So from a Sox perspective I would say no to a JBJ for Soler deal, so if JBJ hits .198 again and Soler blossoms, I'll be wrong again, but I just wouldn't make that trade. Solid point and I get it. Once again, I'm a Bradley fan myself! |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 20, 2015 12:51:15 GMT -5
I love me some Shaw, but my hope is he starts in AAA. Take advantage of his options and get him regular at bats early when everyone is healthy. Holy being on the roster gives you a back up first basemen, even if not ideal. I'd rather him as the back up early so Shaw gets regular ABs. Too early in his career to relegate him to the bench. Too much promise shown last year. He can be there next day should there be an injury. It is close to where he may only find sporadic at-bats and be a bench player for us. I hope I'm totally wrong about Travis Shaw, but I just don't see him all of a sudden becoming a regular. He had two time periods in the minors where he was absolutely terrible and below average.....one lasted a full year. I'm not sure what I'm advocating on April 1, but instead of worrying about getting him regular at bats in Pawtucket, I hope he shows this Spring in Fort Myers that he can definitely contribute and he comes north with us. To do this, and IMO the only way in plays in Boston, he needs to show competence at 3rd and left, and not just 1st. If I thought another couple of hundred at-bats in AAA would make him a much better player, I'd be all for it. I just don't see him being anymore than a nice bench player (if he can play all 3 positions OK). |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 20, 2015 12:38:50 GMT -5
You don't often see a young OF traded for a young OF straight up. It's like this weird scenario where both teams are saying "we like your guy better." Not saying it couldn't happen, it's just a bit rare. Yeah....it sort of makes too much sense. I started this thread.....and the idea scares me even. I've known and followed Jackie Bradley Jr while in South Carolina (close to Charlotte). He has always come through for the Gamecocks (that is the University of South Carolina mascot....and not something else!). I loved watching his march through our minor league system. I've also cringed at (most of his) hitting lines. I really can see benefits by swapping him for Soler. Soler could be a real weapon offensively. Again....it still scares the blank out of me too. Wonder if Dombrowski ever thinks about a move such as this? Theo? |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 19, 2015 12:53:52 GMT -5
Talk about potential, he will be a good one to follow. Does the Duke commitment say anything about his intelligence? Always helps to have a brain. If he could go to Duke he at least has to have 'half a brain'... Maybe we can get the Wizard of Oz to give him the other half.......the "nerve", and a "heart". After watching Hanley for a season, we may need to send him for all 3 also. |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 19, 2015 12:46:31 GMT -5
You were right that Matt, overall, had a poor year, but he was a lot better over the last few weeks. He has very good stuff and IMO be an upgrade over a couple of our guys. But, as you stated, the Rays would have to have an absolute grand-slam to trade with us.
On a positive note: I really see us having a much better rotation 1 thru 5 next year, and I think our depth is better than anyone else.
It was not a delusion that Porcello and Kelly had much more success over their last 8 to 9 starts. The defense on the left side was so vastly better that many of our pitchers felt more confident about not having to make a perfect pitch and just getting the ball in play. With Castillo or Chris Young in left, Bradley in center, and an average Sandoval at 3rd....things will be better any how.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 18, 2015 14:26:27 GMT -5
I was ecstatic with the improvements Xander made last season. I certainly hope he improves, but I would settle for the same....if his power starts to arrive.
His accuracy of his throwing to first was 100% better. Stephen Drew was never a big favorite, but one of the things I really liked about him.....was he always made accurate throws to 2nd and 1st. I really appreciate that from an infielder. You think it is something to take for granted at times, and then Steve Sax nails an old lady in the 1st row behind first.
I love the great defensive play as much as anyone, but I'd rather have dependability from my fielders.
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