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Does anyone here really have confidence in Dave Dombrowski's ability to make a trade for either Fernandez or Carrasco that doesn't turn this team into perpetual cellar dwellers by the end of the decade?

Dombrowski's career has been built on overpaying in over-rated prospects for veterans. There is some sentiment that Margot and Guerra were the Red Sox two most overrated prospects (I don't share it), and now they have been traded. This all worked fine in Detroit where Dombrowski was trading the players he drafted so it was no big loss. I wonder how this is going to work now that the players he is trading were drafted by people who are actually good at acquiring amateur talent.

So which three remaining over-rated prospects would you be willing to give up for Carrasco or Fernandez?

Hahaha sorry Steve! I just meant that Hanley isn't necessarily going to be involved in every CLE trade

The reactions to this trade reflect some deep divisions in philosophy among us as well as some differences we have in the valuation of the traded prospects.

Some of us have been arguing for quite a while that the Sox needed a much stronger bullpen. I put a higher value on relief pitching than some others do. We've had a lengthy debate on this issue and we are not likely to agree. I pinpointed Kimbrel as the RP, next to Chapman, who I wanted the most. However, I did not want the Sox to trade for one year of Chapman. I think almost everyone here agreed on that. But three years of Kimbrel is much different.

I think the addition of Kimbrel - along with a couple more BP arms the Sox are likely to acquire probably through FA - dramatically improves the team. Other than Chapman he was, by far, the best RP available. Next to adding that elite starter, it was, in my opinion, the best move the Sox could make this offseason. I also think it was a deal that had to be done now because Kimbrel was going to be traded to somebody, and soon.

Now I don't think any of us knows whether the Sox paid too much. Time will tell about that. We've had some really bad experiences with trades for RPs in the past and generally I am not in favor of trading young players who have true potential for long term MLB careers for RPs whose futures always are risky. I think the risk is somewhat less with Kimbrel because he is just reaching his prime years and he has no history of injuries. But there is no denying the risk involved with this kind of trade.

When it comes to the price the Sox paid, I don't think it is as high as many others believe. While I respect the views of those with whom I have disagreed on this, I still have a somewhat lower estimate of Margot's future value than many others. I hope for his sake he proves me wrong, but I don't see in his record the kinds of stats future stars normally have, nor do I see in his manner of hitting a player who may become elite. The estimate in the piece just listed on this site about the traded players was that he might be a .275 hitter in the majors. That is good, but not great - and without a great deal of power not good enough to be a regular with the Sox.

Guerra has a long ways to go to be a major league regular. He has major league defensive skills but it is questionable whether he will hit well enough in the higher levels. Most of his HRs this year were hit in the first half of the season.

Logan Allen has the potential to reach the majors, but nothing I read about him convinces me that he would be a SP for the Sox or any contending team. His stuff will have to improve considerably. It might but there are many other pitchers in the system with at least similar prospects right now.

The Sox got a superstar closer who will make a huge difference for the next three years - barring injury - for players who were very unlikely to play for the Sox in the next three years, if ever. That doesn't look like a bad deal to me at this time and with the present needs of the Sox.

Okay, as much as I would like to see Price - dominant pitcher and no pick- I doubt he wants to pitch here.
Cueto would be my number two choice. Solid pitcher and also no pick.

I think a Salazar/Walker type pitcher is really the best one can hope for as a trade target. The established Ace types are not coming to the sox, not without a shocking amount of talent going the other way or yet another huge FA contract. Trader Dave has successfully acquired emerging pitching talents in the past and a smaller trade would preserve more minor league depth while not piling up even more restricting, high--dollar FA contracts., Additionally, assuming the acquired players are young enough, some of the current minor league talent could mature into impact major leaguers while the acquired players are still around and (hopefully) still good..

it would not jib with Dombrowski's rhetoric about having a clear number one to lead the pitching staff, but another 2/3 with upside would be a good thing. The problem would be the perception that DDo would be doubling down on last year's strategy for rotation construction, But results aside, the idea of getting a bunch of solid to better pitchers without a clear number is not a bad strategy, especially when one considers the present and future costs of getting that Ace.

Fill in the position player side with a good 4th outfielder, and then work on the bullpen. Maybe not the homerun that people want, but it might be the best balance between current needs, allowing prospects ( and Vasquez) another year to develop/ recover from injury, and seeing if one of the good pitchers in-house becomes a great pitcher.

My only strong opinion is that the Sox stay away from Cueto. Too many questions about his playoff implosions and his medicals.

I know Sale is good, but dang......I'd give Swihart & their choice of Miley, Owens, or Kelly,.....That said, I know they wouldn't do that, so I don't see a deal there.

Cubs being out on price would obviously eliminate a strong contender. But if they are out it, may not only due to money concerns. They have 2 aces at the top but they are lacking the second tier/depth which would make them the prime candidate to go after multiple starters. I could see them signing Lackey and Samardzija/Leake.

To be honest, I am not as confident as other writers (basically unanimous opinion around baseball) that Cueto is THE target. He might fit the bill of what we were offering Lester last year (I predict Cueto to sign a deal at around 6/126), but not sure Dombrowski would be too comfortable with this. What we need is a true anchor of the rotation and not someone in between. That's why I view Cueto as a strong #2 on a contender in a perfect world. Cueto's perfect season are in line with what Price has been consistently doing over his whole career. Cueto is lacking that 6+ WAR year and I doubt he's gonna enter this plateau in his thirties.

The top 2 guys of the market are obviously Price and Greinke (interchangeable), but then the question comes to mind whether the third option should be signing no expensive pitcher or desperately going after the next tier (Cueto, Zimm) or focusing on the trade market, but this would not end pretty. Teams know that they can fleece us with our surplus of prospects.
Having in mind that the next 2 FA crops are going to be very dry (especially in terms of pitching), we basically have to make our move for that legit ace. We better throw everything we have at Price or Greinke. Too bad neither strikes me as an easy get. There is Price and his history with the Red Sox (its fansbase and Ortiz) and there is Greinke who has been pretty vocal about loving California and hitting. So even if he's leaving LA (maybe due to the Dodgers signing Price or his desire to be the clear ace on a team), I wouldn't put us first in the sweepstakes.

Ranking:
1. Price (expecting him to sign for around 7/217)
2. Greinke (expecting him to sign at around 5/150, but he's got a pick attached to him and I want to keep the #12)
3. Cueto (6/144)
4. trades (realistic targets: 1. Carrasco [great, but not ahead of Cueto yet], 2. TRoss [probably the easiest get and might be easy to extend], 3. Salazar
5. nobody
6. Zimmermann
7. Samardzija/Leake