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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 10, 2015 12:34:57 GMT -5
I honestly wasn't trying put down Greinke, who is obviously one of the top P in the sport and has been for a few years now. And I wasn't trying to get anyone as upset as you seem to be. My point was just that an experienced writer like Gammons should be more careful about comparing anyone to Greg Maddux, the guy with the ridiculous 104.6 career b-Ref WAR. As far as Similarity Scores go, there's nothing wrong with relying on them to get an idea of where a player stands at a given point in his career. You said Similarity Scores are "dumb." If you disagree with the methodology behind them, lay out your reasons. It could be a worthy discussion and I'm not being sarcastic in saying that. It's the kind of discussion baseball nerds like you and me and others on this board love to have. Do you have a stat that shows the level of D each pitcher received up to age 31 seasons? I could be wrong as I am too young to have watched a young Greg Maddux but I think he for the most part had much better D behind him then Greinke has for most of his career. Also Gammons is saying Greinke is like Maddux in that he should age well due to his stuff and how he pitches. Do you really not agree with that? I actually do agree a lot with Gammons' comment. I am not too young to be able to compare them (not even close). I loved watching Maddux pitch. He was a master at what he did, but Greinke is also. Greinke has really taken his craft to another level over the last 3 to 4 years. Somehow his command has gotten even better....and it was pretty good 5 years ago. Maddux took great pride in being a great fielder and surprisingly good with the bat. Greinke is the same. I can see him aging well, as did Maddux. I personally would be jumping up and down if we signed him on a 4 to 5 year deal. Probably the Bums will resign him. It would be their best decision, but you never know. |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 10, 2015 11:23:53 GMT -5
I really hope Chavis shortens his swing. His hit tool used to be his bread and butter coming out of HS. Seems like he's become too much of a hacker. I think Chavis' power is easier than he suspects. Cutting down on K's and focusing on driving the ball into gaps instead of over the fence would do him a lot of good. BIG TIME AGREE! |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 10, 2015 11:22:31 GMT -5
Young is OK, but I would believe he would need more at-bats to be happy. I'm really not a big Rajii Davis fan, but I could see him being fine only getting in occasionally. Not sure if I'm right, but I actually would prefer a left handed hitting outfielder to platoon, if necessary, with Rusney Castillo.
I sort of compare Bradley and Castillo all the time, and I just see Jackie B. as more of a surer thing. I certainly can see, at times, someone playing center other than Jackie Jr., especially when going against someone like Sale.....but I'd like to see him start 140 games next year unless he really can't handle it.
Castillo's September performance has got me real concerned. Of the two outfielders, a platoon partner for him seems more serious. Either way, we definitely need a solid 4th outfielder. But maybe we may be looking for a starter if Dombrowski moves one of Bradley or Castillo.
I'm sure I speak for us all.......I CAN'T WAIT FOR SOME RED SOX ACTION!!!
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 10, 2015 7:20:53 GMT -5
Steve, if you saw him play what was your impression of his defensive skills? Sounds as if those were raw also, but improving. Sorry about getting back so slowly Norm. That part of his game was thought to be behind his hitting, and it is really no better than average (if that). He showed decent hands and a pretty solid arm when I saw him. I think he is somewhat limited in what he will become defensively....no matter where he is placed. His bat is what will get him to the majors (or not). Seems to me he has got "power" happy, and that alone with his other skills being no more than average will kill his chances. IMO he has to greatly improve his ability of putting the ball in play. He really has some good bat speed and when he does connect it is usually hard contact, but his strike-outs are of great concern in low-A. He plays the game hard and his teammates seem to gravitate towards him. Lets hope that darn light bulb comes on this year! |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 9, 2015 18:03:44 GMT -5
Absolutely. I think they'd like to see him post a K rate in the 22-24% range, with a BA much closer to .300 and an OPS in .850 territory. He's still a bit young for the level. I think they're going to want to see him keep the power but dramatically improve the contact and pitch recognition/selectivity. . THAT is the most important thing. I want Chavis to show up everyday with his named posted. He needs to play everyday and get his 4 at bats. This will be a big year for him. He could stay on the same path and become quickly dismissed, or he could come up with a 2-strike plan that allows him to be more productive. I was deeply disappointed in his performance this year in low A. He needs to become a hitter and not a slugger. Yes he may hit 20+ homers in the majors some day, but he will never get there with his present approach. Few teams find 20+ homers and 150+ K's acceptable. Yes he should be in Greenville next year! |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 9, 2015 14:58:41 GMT -5
The Indians need help at third base and want a right-handed power bat to play in the outfield. I'm not sure Boston has the players that the Indians want, but if the Sox could get a third (or even fourth team) involved who really wants to stock their farm systems, I could see the Sox being players for Salazar or Carrasco. Please, please, please don't bring up names like Wade Miley, Rusney Castillo, or Hanley Ramirez in this discussion. It's just not fair. I think we all need to play by the rules and assume that Cleveland is a team with a fan base and wants to win. There is no way in this market that they are going to trade elite, cost-controlled pitching for players that Red Sox fans are happy to see go. From one who has brought up 2 of those names, I think your short sighted. (see the Trade Forum) |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 9, 2015 14:54:26 GMT -5
Boy with the news today about Brantley's surgery, the Tribe is really hurting offensively for the first 2 months of 2016! And they BADLY need an outfielder even more.
I still believe Hanley has some real value to other teams, if we pick up 40 to 50% of his owed money. The Indians, even before Brantley went under the knife, needed some real bats. DH is a problem. It is a black hole for their offense.
Don't totally disregard the possibility that an AL team will show interest in Ramirez.
My original post above could see them being intrigued by Buchholtz. We match up well in some areas with them.
Other teams I see us matching up with this winter are:
- the White Sox
- Padres
- Mets
- Nats
- A's
- Cards
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 6, 2015 14:05:12 GMT -5
I would hate to include Jackie Bradley Jr, but if other pieces were inserted back to the Sox, it could become interesting. I do see your point about Francona and Ramirez. Maybe they had an OK relationship back in the day....and Tito can see the tremendous importance of adding a quality bat at DH. The Indians have some talent. They just need more offense to be a real contender.
Yeah it is possible that the Sox would have to send more money than I mentioned above. But man.....it my view it could be worth it.
I don't like Sandoval either, but Hanley is (usually) an elite bat, and Sandoval does play a position and HAS played it OK in the past. I sort of bet he will come back and be an average 3rd baseman next season.
Back to Hanley, his attitude rubs many the wrong way and don't want him around our young talent next year. Maybe Tito can get him to understand that he might be able to hustle playing just one side of the game and not get hurt.
There are so few places he could fit in, but Cleveland could actually use what he hopefully brings to the plate.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 6, 2015 10:48:05 GMT -5
So the Indians are taking on over $40 million/year in additional salary, and we are subsidizing half annually if I understand you right. That leaves us with $20 million to spend on an OF and 1B as we just created two holes in our own lineup to fill them. Assuming this is a trade Cleveland would be interested in, who do you propose fills those two holes on our roster for $20 million combined? Some of us are interested in signing Alex Gordon. I'm OK with that but I'd hate to give up our #1 pick. I personally like Parra. He is still a decent defensive outfielder, has no QO, and is OK offensively. I would seriously think of a 1-year contract for someone like Justin Morneau. I would like us to put A LOT of our focus on the bullpen. O'Day, Lowe, Madson, and maybe Clippard. I like Bastardo as a lefty too. |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 6, 2015 10:03:28 GMT -5
I've always looked at the Cleveland Indians as a great match-up for us this winter. Few organizations have such solid young arms in their rotation with reasonable contracts like them. I, of course, like Kluber, but that is probably not happening. I mentioned here about Salazar already. This trade would include Carlos Carrasco as our primary target.
What do the Indians not have? What would give them a chance in their stacked division? They do have some nice pieces other than their rotation and Cody Allen (Lindor, Kipnis, and Brantley). What they are missing badly is some offense and a centerfielder. We can supply those things if we had some significant money.
I don't want to trade Jackie Bradley at this time, but Rusney Castillo can play a decent center and does have the potential to add some solid offense for the Tribe. Hanley Ramirez is the type of hitter the Indians really cannot afford and let's face it.....he probably wouldn't go to if he had the option. He would fit in perfectly for them as solely a DH. They wouldn't have to worry about whether he knew how to put on a glove.....let alone go out into the field. Yeah Hanley could do just what Hanley wants to do and that is just hit. He would have a much better chance of staying healthy and he even knows Francona (not sure how positive that is?).
Now the Indians would have a possible hole in their rotation if they traded Carrasco to us, so how about we send the Clay Buchholz (he too knows Tito)? This would take care of one of our dilemmas also....namely do we keep hoping he will stay healthy.
I'm proposing the following trade:
Hanley Ramirez, Clay Buchholz, and Rusney Castillo for Carlos Carrasco, Justus Sheffield and we pay 20 million to help cover the contracts of Castillo and, especially, Hanley.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 6, 2015 9:20:01 GMT -5
To take on the uncertainty of Strasburg, I'd want to get rid of the uncertainty of Buchholz. I don't want the entire season's possibility of success put on their shoulders. Could we include Buchholz instead of Miley? And then what else would it take? Really warming up to the idea of moving Buchholz this winter. Whether he goes to the Nats, Indians, or Padres.....I don't care, but he could be part of a BIG trade |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 3, 2015 11:42:52 GMT -5
Just not that into Strasburg. Maybe Clay Buchholz has soured me on fragile pitchers of Teutonic lineage, but he'll cost way more than he is worth based on pedigree, and as a Boras client he's not sticking around anyway. Agree on Strasburg....I still say hold on to the top 6 or 7 guys, all the way down to Guerra...get a mid level guy like maybe Maeda or Kazmir (or the best starter avail with no pick attached) & sign O'day & Mark Lowe (solid but not too costly of money or prospects). 2016 may be a bridge year, which is OK with the recent titles in our pocket. Plus, I think we can poss be a WC team with these small changes. Agree BIG TIME. I'm may get trashed, but I see them as more of a contender in 2017. Don't give up our #1 this year! Sign O'Day and others, but don't be foolish. NOW if Price is interested....... |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 3, 2015 8:59:01 GMT -5
I like the thought process in signing 2 (maybe even 3) relievers may be a good way to proceed. NO Qualifying Offers and less risk! KC had no top of the rotation starters and a shut-down bullpen. I've mentioned several times locking up O'Day and I'm fine with bringing in a Madson or Broxton. We could use a lefty in the pen also...maybe Sipp.
I'm like most of you, I want a top of the rotation starter, but not if it hurts us doing other things. Signing a TOR without improving the pen is stupid. If I had to pick one or the other, I think I'd go "pen"!
For the 4th outfielder (and probably a starter) I'd seriously think of Parra. Castillo would be a good 4th IMO. Again....no QO!
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 2, 2015 7:59:07 GMT -5
It is hilarious how the New York papers are jumping on Collins. The way Familla was pitching down the stretch could not have given him much confidence. Sure Harvey "willed" his way back out for the 9th, but I could see Collins blasted if Familla blew it and they 2nd guessed him for not leaving the "Dark Knight" in. Sometimes you can't win. Harvey looked great. I understand his decision. Congrats Royals!
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 31, 2015 10:24:19 GMT -5
DD's history with the Tigers is to move quickly. My guess would be that he would do the same with the Red Sox. IMO he will make a competitive offer to David Price and see what they come back with. If he believes he has little chance with Price, he does a full court press on Johnnie Cueto. If this is looking like something he is not comfortable with, he keeps moving on. Hopefully he is also ready to make offers to several relievers also at the same time. I'm sure he has already been talking with GM's around MLB and has some idea of who and what is possible. It could be very hectic quickly and definitely exciting. |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 29, 2015 14:24:57 GMT -5
I suppose TOR works, but the entire concept is what we called vaporware in my business: poorly defined, and with little to hang your hat on. How about "high-value pitcher", or some such thing? That starts to capture the quantitative side without overtly naming xFIP or some other statistical measure? I do think you've hit on a good way to highlight Margot's value. His contact rate is ridiculous, and that does have real value. He also mentions on this link (thanks juniorp) that his focus will be on improving his knowledge of the strike zone. As an aside, if he did say all the stuff that's credited to him on that page, he has a future as a diplomat if he can't cut it in pro ball! The guy has a very rich skillset and he's all of 20 years old. The Sox are nurturing a whole group of prospects who have a tremendous amount of potential. Good time to be a fan of prospects, I'd say. I know this has been said a million times. A small percent of prospects actually become productive big leaguers. I would simply hate to trade the wrong chunk of prospects & watch a McCutchen or Posey or De Grom play for another team, & watch Lavarnway, Bowden & Lars come up to Boston. I'd say keep them all just in case & sign a #2 in FA (lose the pick if we have to). This is just too good of group. Maybe better than the last group that produced MB, XB, Swihart. Even the best GM's trade wrong guys. I do understand what the expectations have become with the Sox. I actually love that we believe it is our "right" to be playing meaningful games every year in September. God knows this was not always true. But I'd like to see Dombroski do one of two things: 1) stay the course with our kids in the majors and the minors for one more year to evaluate them a little more....and then make your play.....or 2) sign a Cueto or Price, improve the pen....and see how it plays out without losing our 1st rounder There is no reason to say we have to push all of our cards to the middle in 2016. Maybe with patience 2017 will be the REAL start! |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 29, 2015 7:19:00 GMT -5
I bet you guys won't be voting for Chris Christie! Colon is not a viable candidate for us. We, at least, need a solid #2......and he is no longer that.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 29, 2015 7:15:35 GMT -5
Before last night I thought Johnnie Cueto was someone to take a serious look at. After last night I'm sure about it.....but the competition has gone up with his complete game 2-hitter. I definitely like Price better, but I think Cueto will cost us $50 mill less. If, and that is a big if, Buchholz is healthy, with Cueto we could have 3 solid number 2's. Porcello IMO will be a good #3 next season. I'm fine with those guys with the depth we have in Pawtucket. The bull pen is another (huge) matter!
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 28, 2015 14:16:36 GMT -5
My only problem with him, other that his 2015 season, is he will receive a qualifying offer. Fair enough...if we want to keep that pick (good pick), then I wouldn't want any of the FA pitchers...If they're good enough to sign, they will have a QO (Cueto & Price will not be worth their asking price)..if they are not good enough for a QO, we already have a full cupboard of them....Then the only way is a trade. I like Carrasco, go ahead & give them Margot, Miley, Owens, Johnson (some combination) for him & use the x-tra money for the bullpen. My comment is slightly misconstrued. I'm NOT against losing our 1st round pick (and the dough that goes along with it), I'm just not wanting to do it for Smardzija . I like him and believe he will be very useful going forward, but his poor season is a red flag for losing the pick and all of the money it will take to sign him. I'm fine losing the pick for Greinke. I can see signing Cueto if we can get him for less years (and of course less $ after his poor 2nd half). |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 27, 2015 17:28:08 GMT -5
I know a lot of these pitchers are crap shoots....I like Smardzija for a few reasons.....good track record, Less miles on his arm....alpha type guy, which is what I think we need, right handed, coming off a down year so he will be reasonable. I know his success was in the NL, but I think he will be better next year (with us) with a better defense, less of a launching pad for a home park. Just to good of stuff. My only problem with him, other that his 2015 season, is he will receive a qualifying offer. |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 26, 2015 13:56:34 GMT -5
Pretty clear from the timing of this announcement that Ben lost out on the first base gig to Amaro. Love it! |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 22, 2015 20:25:54 GMT -5
Thanks Chris! At this point Craig is definitely a sunk cost, I just didn't want there to be any way he would hurt our cap figure. Sounds good.
Hard to believe a far he has fallen!
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 22, 2015 13:58:30 GMT -5
Hate asking this question, but can someone please educate me on the Allen Craig dollars owe to him. This last season we were fortunate enough to be able to "store" him in Pawtucket, and his big contract did not impact us because he was taken off the 40. If we release him, does all of those dollars owed to him this year count against our CAP?
I would love to alleviate this anchor, but even if we some how traded him and were responsible for 80% of his yearly contract to get rid of him, isn't this still counting on our CAP number?
Also, I am not a Sandy Leon fan, but with questions about Christian Vazquez, might we need him around till Spring Training?
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 20, 2015 13:39:08 GMT -5
Nick Hamilton should probably have been in the running (initially unintended) for fastest runner. True 80 speed. Problem is he doesn't do anything else yet. I was pleasantly surprised by his build as a 17 year old. He will be one I will be watching closely next season. |
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 19, 2015 21:29:49 GMT -5
I know he's been terrible the past two years, but what about a ST invite and a minor league deal for Dom Brown? Big pop, lefty bat. Could be a nice compliment for Castillo on the cheap. Certainly wouldn't guarantee anything and somebody might, but it'd be interesting if that didn't happen. It was surprising to see him being released today. I thought of that also. Why not! |
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