SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 19, 2015 10:24:27 GMT -5
Jonathan Papelbon. Say what you will about his behavior, but Boston is probably one of the few cities where he could thrive again and he will cost almost nothing, with either Washington picking up the majority of his salary or as part of a larger contract swap. He is no Aroldis Chapman, but he has been pretty darn good since leaving the Red Sox. I'd actually like to see that move myself. He is still held in high regard by most in Boston and would certainly give us another solid option at the end of games. It wouldn't balance out exactly and the Nats would have to maybe add some dough, but how about Allen Craig? |
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 19, 2015 10:19:53 GMT -5
He walked 7 of the 8 hitters he faced after signing. You were still in on him? Here I am thinking I'M the patient one here! Maybe we can have him and Shaq Thompson have a "face off" and see who blinks first. |
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 19, 2015 10:16:15 GMT -5
Nice guys! A fellow tries to be serious and what happens? Jokes.....that's what! LOL
Can you all imagine what Hanley and Panda think when they "read" your barbs? You are going to hurt their feelings badly.
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 18, 2015 14:54:32 GMT -5
Greinke's anxiety issues shouldn't ever have been an issue and they certainly aren't now. I don't know if it shouldn't have been an issue, but agree it shouldn't be now. He's been treated and done well. I'd go for one of the guys that doesn't cost a pick, but Greinke is one of the 5 or 6 guys available that I want 1 of for sure. 2 would be better. This has been made into TOO BIG of an issue. Now a days there are so many ways of handling any chemistry problem. He would definitely handle the Boston scene. My only real problem with him is the draft pick. |
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 18, 2015 11:40:48 GMT -5
Yahoo sport's mark Townsend is reporting greinke will opt out of his contract. If this is indeed true...does dombrowski go after him? I always thought grienke would be bc's top target. Maybe some of the survivors in the baseball operations department entice dombrowski to drink the cool aid? For 5 years, I could see us going in that direction.....even though Grienke would be 37 at the end. That is a problem, but maybe a bigger one is that he will get a qualifying offer and we will lose our 1st rounder and all the dough that goes with it. One of the things attractive about Price and Cueto are that there will be no loss of our #1 pick. If we do decide to go that way, Grienke would have one advantage I like....his IQ and ability to pass on some of that wisdom to our pitchers. I see that plus with David Price also. He does seem to be a great teammate and mentor. Can't image we could sign Zack for less that 5 years and $150 million. Lots of coin and lots of risk. |
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 17, 2015 12:25:59 GMT -5
The prospect site has Espinoza listed at 6'0", 170. The Fort Report has him at 6'1", 190. Did he really put on 20 pounds this year? Whoo -- of course, getting into a pro sports program that deals with good nutrition may do that. I've seen him 3 times, and he looks bigger than 170 lbs. If I had to guess, I would put the figure closer to 180.....so maybe he is 190. |
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 15, 2015 17:39:22 GMT -5
He was very impressive the one game I saw him in Sarasota. Threw is secondary stuff a lot. He had a lot of confidence in his curve and change-up. He will be exciting to watch this upcoming year. Lowell?
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 15, 2015 15:01:14 GMT -5
I like Ryan Madson quite a bit. His stuff looked really good during the 2nd half. No idea what it would take, but would think it wouldn't be too bad.
Darren O'Day certainly looks like a sure thing (as much as a reliever can be). What kind of contracts will these guys and Tony Sipp get this off season?
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 14, 2015 10:48:19 GMT -5
This MAY be the best way to go when improving our staff!! Either way, we can't go cheap.
Here is a few ideas to consider out of the free agent class:
1) I do believe we need at least a couple of power arms. Tommy Hunter is 29, made 4.65 mill this year and was throwing 97. He has been a decent reliever, but may be ready to really come into his own. Mark Lowe is 33 years old, wasn't real expensive, and throws at 95. Has some control problems at times, but can be rough on a hitter. Jim Johnson is 33 and made just 1.6 mill in 2015. Hasn't shown much for a couple of years, but did show some improvement earlier in the year in Atlanta. Jonathan Broxton threw 94.7 MPH this year on average and is coming off a 3 year contract that paid him 9 mill this year. May be a buy low guy with his poor performance the last couple of years. Ryan Madson is 36 and made a strong come-back this season after missing considerable time. Made only $850K and was throwing 94.
2) a good middle reliever who is a more of a unique different look pitcher. Darren O'Day is definitely someone who fits that and could be a good fit. He is 33 and made 4.25 mill this year (last year of a 3 year contract). Not sure where to put Bobby Parnell who is 31. May be a buy low after his injuries.
3) previous closers. Tyler Clippard is just 31, average about 92 mph, and made some big dollars this season at 8.3 mill. Very consistent and hard to hit. Never gives up many base runners. Joakim Soria is 32 and made 7 mill in his last year of a 3 year contract. His average mph was 92.
4) a left reliever would be very helpful. Tony Sipp is 32 and made 2.4 mill in 2015 and his velo is around 91, but has great numbers this last 2 years for hits per 9 innings. Antonio Bastardo is 30 and made 3.1 this season. His average velocity is 92.7. Finally Sean Marshall if healthy may be a good buy low candidate. He made 6.5 mill this year and was injured most of the season.
I think Hunter would be reliable, but I like Lowe and even Madson. I love O'Day and would like him targeted for sure. Clippard would be a nice pick-up IMO, and Sipp would fit real nicely in our pen. I hope Dombrowski brings in 2 to 3 guys. These are my guys who intrigue me for 2016. I know velocity isn't close to being everything, but it can be a part of the final decision.
How about Lowe for $2 mill, Madson for $1.5 mill, O'Day a 2 year contract for $10 mill, and Tony Sipp a 2 year contract for $7 mill?
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 13, 2015 19:10:02 GMT -5
forecast: A+ ---- 6 weeks, AA ---- until mid-August......then a cup of coffee in Pawtucket. Benitendi could be on his heels.
2017 - one or both will be close to ready!
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 11, 2015 17:45:51 GMT -5
Love the idea of Teheran. I doubt though that the Braves would go for the deal you proposed unless we are eating a lot of salary. Sandoval doesn't seem like a fit for them either way. Olivera may or may not be their 3rd baseman. How about something really out there and include the idea of bad contract for bad contract. I think we could use a left handed bat. Nick Swisher is a switch hitter, but better from the left side. If Shaw doesn't work out, Swisher may play some 1st and a little outfield. I know.....I know.....Swisher is on the down side but he has been a solid clutch hitter and good club house presence, and does not have lots of time on his contract. Can you see how BAD I want to get rid of Hanley and Panda? |
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 11, 2015 17:38:24 GMT -5
If we are targeting young starters with lots of team control, why not Julio Teheran. It is quite amazing that he has had 3 full seasons in the majors already. For some reason there had been some rumors at the trade deadline in July of Atlanta maybe considering moving him. He is not yet 25 and is signed to a nice extension thru 2020. Atlanta needs everything at this time, so maybe we could put together something that would appeal to the Braves for this young stud. He definitely regressed some this year as his consistency and stats went the wrong way, but he still has some nice figures. In 201 innings he gave up 189 hits and had 171 K's. His walks increased by 22 in 20 less innings and he gave up 27 bombs (5 more than the year before). Teheran was outstanding in 2013 and 2014, and I could see him roaring back next season. Trade: Miley, Sandoval, Owens, and Chavis for Teheran and a prospect like Max Fried. I like Teheran, but don't see him as an ace. Last year, though his ERA was 2.89, his SIERA was 3.68, significantly higher. This can be credited to a BABIP of only .265. His swinging strike rate (10.8% this year) is good, but not incredible, ranking him 22nd in baseball. His Z-Cont% (percentage of times contact was made when the ball was thrown in the zone), was also top 20 in baseball. He doesn't strike a lot of guys out (20.3 K%), but maybe that will change since he misses a decent number of bats. Last year he had the 6th highest FB% in all of baseball (43.8%). This year, he went down all the way to 36.2%. This can be attributed to his HR/FB increasing drastically, from 8.1% last year to 13.0% this year. Additionally, his BB% went all the way from 5.8% to 8.7%, going from a pretty decent number to one that was tenth worst in baseball. However, he is young and has a great contract, but I see his ceiling to be about a 3.50 ERA guy, pretty good, but not worth mortgaging the farm over. If they could get him without giving up any really solid pieces, I'd do it. Some how I'm not getting the message across that I'm not trying to trade for an ace. I'm trying to upgrade the staff period by looking for upside that is young and affordable. |
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 11, 2015 14:59:41 GMT -5
If we are targeting young starters with lots of team control, why not Julio Teheran. It is quite amazing that he has had 3 full seasons in the majors already. For some reason there had been some rumors at the trade deadline in July of Atlanta maybe considering moving him. He is not yet 25 and is signed to a nice extension thru 2020.
Atlanta needs everything at this time, so maybe we could put together something that would appeal to the Braves for this young stud. He definitely regressed some this year as his consistency and stats went the wrong way, but he still has some nice figures. In 201 innings he gave up 189 hits and had 171 K's. His walks increased by 22 in 20 less innings and he gave up 27 bombs (5 more than the year before). Teheran was outstanding in 2013 and 2014, and I could see him roaring back next season.
Trade: Miley, Sandoval, Owens, and Chavis for Teheran and a prospect like Max Fried.
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 11, 2015 13:47:05 GMT -5
I guess I could see that, especially with Benitendi and Margot coming fast. I would certainly rather make it Castillo instead of Jackie, but I'm sure we would need to throw in another prospect.....probably a good one (Johnson?). I really like the Indians big 3, and one great thing about Salazar is his age and control. This may be the kind of thing we should be looking into in 2016 instead of going for broke on a David Price. |
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 11, 2015 13:42:57 GMT -5
Though both would be great additions to our rotation, I'd be more interested in Carrasco than Salazar. It seems like Cleveland would probably just want to trade whichever one got them a better return. Carrasco is a little older (28 vs. 25), but has a very team-friendly contract with 3 years and $19 million remaining, plus two team options for $9 million and $9.5 million. Carrasco this year had a swinging strike percentage of 14.0%, which ranked fifth in baseball after Kershaw, Scherzer, Sale, and Liriano. He also led the league in O-Swing% (percent of pitches outside the zone swung at by hitters), and numbers 2-5 on that list were DeGrom, Scherzer, Kluber, and Sale. His K% of 29.6 ranked fourth after Kershaw, Sale, and Scherzer. His SIERA the past two years was 2.58 and 2.74. The only other pitchers to post a SIERA below 2.75 two years in a row were Kershaw and Sale. He might be slightly more expensive to trade for than Salazar, but then again he might not, since Salazar is still a year away from arbitration and is three years younger. If we could get him without giving up our entire minor league system, that would be great. I think they would need at least a couple good prospect as well though. Maybe someone like Margot. Would something like (subsidized) Hanley, Miley, Margot, Johnson, and Light be enough? Shane, I know we are all throwing some ideas out there, but your offer seems IMO as too much for Danny Salazar. Now for Carrasco, who I also like better, it may be close. The Indians actually may be close to competing next season with the addition of an elite bat. It may be hard to argue this after what transpired this season, but Hanley is an elite bat normally and the Indians would never normally be able to afford him (and probably he would never have gone there under his own free will). Hanley batting 4th and DHing for the tribe could be very valuable for them. Miley himself would duplicate 75% of Salazar. I truly do understand you have to hurt also when making a trade, but I'm not sure all 3 of those kids also is necessary (for Salazar). Cleveland is in a really good place with respect to their rotation. Kluber and company certainly represent the strength of their ball club. I'm not interested, personally, in Trevor Bauer. You may be right. Cleveland doesn't have to move a starter, but with the lineup they have presently, they really don't have enough fire power. |
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 11, 2015 12:41:48 GMT -5
Not sure why, but Salazar (according to our Wiz of BS - Cafardo) is more apt to be traded than Carrasco this winter. Danny Salazar had a very nice season this year is not arb eligible until 2017 and is 25 years old. His K, WHIP, W/L record, and ERA were very solid in pretty much his 1st full season for the Indians.
In 185 innings he gave up just 156 hits and had 195 K's. He had a WHIP of just 1.13 and his record was 14 and 10.
He is definitely someone to consider and would like to hear what you folks think of him and what he may be worth. How does Miley and Hanley sound with us paying half of Ramirez's freight? Cleveland needs a bat, and they don't have a DH.
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 11, 2015 7:22:09 GMT -5
So doesnt a Quintana conversation start with Swihart? Times have changed but the Sox once traded for Dennis Eckersley, Pedro Martinez and Josh Beckett. Their best bet is somebody with more stuff and potential than might have been shown at the major league level early in their careers. Arrietta and Scherzer (Dombrowski's gem) are the kinds of pitchers that Sox scouting resources must find. Pitchers like this (before they are good) are available every year. Jon Gray with his inconsistent start in Colorado is the kind of pitcher they should target. Disappointing Cashner in San Diego is another. The California Angels swiped Andrew Heaney from the Marlins last year. There is somebody out there for the taking if the Sox brain trust does their job right. Let me say this immediately.....I am not Andrew Cashner's agent (or best friend). He is just an example. DD and his band of merry men need to do their jobs. Find lower priced pitchers who have the potential with a tweak or two to be helpful. Who knows....maybe we find the next Jake Arrieta. I'm fine with them working some magic below the top tier if possible. Is it simple or easy? Of course not. There are 4 or 5 pitchers out there right now who will have bounce back years next season or will find a new pitch or motion that will explode their career. It happens every season.....that we say " where did that come from" or " who could've predicted that performance". I'm hopeful that DD and his pro scouts will make some better decisions for us going forward. |
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 10, 2015 14:25:00 GMT -5
Lots of good discussion here. I'll just throw my opinion out there. I'm not sure that signing Price, Cueto, Greinke is the answer. I'd rather go the trade route to add somebody. Would love Carrasco, but I don't see why Cleveland would want to give him up. I love the idea of going after Quintana. I don't see a reason not to love what he'd bring. 200+ innings three consecutive years, he'll be 27 on OD, he's under contract for a good price until 2018 plus two option years, consistent batted ball data, ERA, xFIP, etc. Another thing I love is that he was third in all of baseball last year in first pitch strike percentage at 69%. (the top 11 of that list goes Scherzer, Lackey, Quintana, Chen, Harvey, Kershaw, deGrom, Zimmerman, Sale, Carrasco, Price). He's also been consistently above 65% with that the past three years. Obviously he doesn't get as many swinging strikes as most of those guys, but getting ahead consistently is important. His curveball was 13 runs above average last year according to Fangraphs, which was fourth in MLB behind Felix, Kluber, Kershaw. He was 11th in that category in 2014, using it about 6% less of the time. I think a rotation, in no particular order, of Buchholz, Quintana, Rodriguez, Porcello, Miley would be fine. I really think the defense hurt the staff so much last year, as the big gap between ERA (4.39) & FIP (3.92) shows. Pedroia's metrics were down at the start of the year, Napoli was not as good as he'd been previously, and obviously Hanley and Sandoval really hurt them. An improved outfield defense (Red Sox allowed the 4th most fly balls in baseball last year) will help a lot. So, I just think the four we have in Buchholz, Rodriguez, Porcello, and Miley will work out, and adding Quintana instead of, like, Kelly or Owens, is certainly an upgrade. Sounds good! I really find the idea of us trading for an ace real difficult. I find the idea of us signing a free agent for more than 5 years scary. Maybe setting our sites somewhat lower is the way to think. I do like Carrasco and Quintana. I mentioned earlier about looking into someone like Steven Matz or maybe Zach Wheeler from the Mets. Maybe we could "con" the Rays into taking Hanley (we pay 2/3 of his salary) for Ordirizzi or Moore. Of course we have to sweeten it a lot. One solid upgrade, much better overall defense, and good health may be what is needed. |
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 10, 2015 14:16:44 GMT -5
I'm not a believer. Trade him while he's still worth something. Maybe something like a Kimbrel trade. I'm all for this kind of thinking! |
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 10, 2015 14:15:36 GMT -5
This is the major DDo decision that's gotten the least discussion here. The three "leash" choices are a combination of patience and slack given, before you decide (if you do) that he's not good enough to start, and needs to either be traded or relegated to a platoon OF role. "A long leash" means that you expect to wait until the trade deadline before making the decision, and are giving him a lot of leeway to struggle before that. (Obviously, if he's just plain bad for the first three months or awful for the first two, you might make a move sooner, i.e., relegating him to a platoon role. See the final note.) The "medium leash" means you expect to make that decision around mid-season, and are cutting him an ordinary amount of slack. The "short leash" means he has, at most, until the end of May to prove he should be out there every day, and he doesn't have a lot of slack. He has to be good, not just OK. Note that I am assuming that because of Castillo's struggles this year, the 4th OF we pick up over the winter will be a LHH who can assume the larger half of a platoon and do an OK job when and if it's decided that Castillo's simply not good enough to start against RHP. (More or less the role we envisioned for Nava at the start of this season, as an alternative to Victorino.) That's what would happen in the "short leash" scenario, and in some of the "medium leash" ones (depending on how good the 4th OF has been and on the availability of better bats via trade). Giving the 4th OFer the big half of the platoon, to upgrade suckage to adequacy, does not preclude trading for someone better at the deadline, but this poll is about what the plan should be at the start of ST. I too believe we need another left handed hitting outfielder. Maybe even being the starter! I'd like for us to explore Josh Reddick in Oakland. Maybe Castillo can be part of a trade for him. But I don't see Rusney being totally effective going forward. He is so raw it is surprising. He has little clue at bat and on the bases. Certainly I hope I'm wrong, but I was very disappointed with his performance especially in September. |
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 10, 2015 12:36:35 GMT -5
If they sign a FA who costs the Sox a first round pick it'll create issues. The Sox will lose more than a first round pick. The Sox will also lose the slot money for the 12th pick. There will be a loss of financial draft flexibility. Who is worth signing considering the ramifications of losing the first round pick? In my opinion it would only be Grienke. I see him being an ace for years to come. He has very good stuff, but also knows how to pitch as good as anybody in baseball. He will earn 5years/150mil plus and be worth it. Good point and I agree. One Mets pitcher I'd be all over is the least experienced Steve Matz. Wonder what he may take to trade for? |
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 9, 2015 9:52:14 GMT -5
I know he is not an "ace," but James Shields seems like the perfect guy to target to bolster the rotation this offseason. He is durable, he has experience in the AL East, and not only will he not cost anything of value, but the Red Sox can also probably dump some salary in exchange for him. Moreover, his lackluster performance in the pitching Nirvana that is Petco strikes me as fluky - there seems like a chance for a rebound performance there. I'd be fine with that if the Pads take some of the dollars. It has been mentioned before, but moving Sandoval there may have some legs. A swap of those 2 with a little salary relief sounds good. Shields is a great role model for the young pitchers like Owens, Rodriquez, Johnson, and even Barnes. His impact would be felt several ways. His heater still hits 92, and he has a great change.....but his command has slipped over the last couple of years. Great competitor and teammate, it may be worth looking into. But don't expect an ace.....he is an innings eater. |
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 9, 2015 9:47:14 GMT -5
Given his struggles, is Fister a potential "buy low" option this off season? Definitely. Not an ace, but if healthy, a solid 3 or a poor man's 2. For 1 year, I'd be all over him (if healthy). |
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 9, 2015 7:55:19 GMT -5
Answer to question #1......YES!
Do we consider moving Betts or Bogey for him? NO!
Do we match up well for the Mets to make a trade? Don't see it, but your idea about bringing in a 3rd team is great!
I do not want to move Swihart, but players like Brantley, Kipnis from the Indians (or Braun from the Brewers) are the type the Mets may sit up and take notice. The Pollock idea is good. Not sure the DBacks want to move him, but yeah that type of player would possibly work.
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 9, 2015 7:46:33 GMT -5
Great news! Of all of the disappointments this season, and there were a lot, Johnson being shut down and not being able to show what he could do was big for me. I like his chances of being a SOLID rotation guy. Who knows where he slots, but he is the kind of pitcher that would look good every 5th day and eat lots and lots of innings. I actually got to the place were I preferred him to Henry Owens. Now who knows. Henry got his chance and showed some real potential to contribute, and Brian has to wait.....again (remember his baseball meets face episode?). |
|
|
