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Post by geostorm on Feb 9, 2020 17:51:51 GMT -5
The new trade will send Betts and David Price to L.A., with OF Alex Verdugo and SS Jeter Downs among the return for Boston.
Breaking: The trade that will send Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers has been agreed upon, sources tell @jeffpassan @jeffpassan
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Post by geostorm on Feb 9, 2020 17:50:36 GMT -5
The new trade will send Betts and David Price to L.A., with OF Alex Verdugo and SS Jeter Downs among the return for Boston.
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Post by geostorm on Feb 8, 2020 22:06:50 GMT -5
Padres deal Manuel Margot and prospect Logan Driscoll to the Rays for RHP Emilio Pagan. Margot had been part of discussions with the Red Sox about Betts. Trading Margot suggests that Padres don’t expect Sox to re-engage on Betts, so SD opted to move on to another deal. per Alex Speier Twitter
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Post by geostorm on Feb 8, 2020 21:56:57 GMT -5
Margot beck in AL East #Rays are trading reliever Emilio Pagan to the #Padres in exchange for outfielder Manuel Margot and prospect C/OF Logan Driscoll, sources tell @theathleticmlb
per Alex Speier Padres deal Manuel Margot and prospect Logan Driscoll to the Rays for RHP Emilio Pagan. Margot had been part of discussions with the Red Sox about Betts. Trading Margot suggests that Padres don’t expect Sox to re-engage on Betts, so SD opted to move on to another deal.
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Post by geostorm on Feb 6, 2020 7:30:14 GMT -5
on an "age 28" tangent - I'm 60 yo, following the Sox since the mid 60s, and, two of my favorite Sox players of all time, Reggie Smith & Freddie Lynn, iirc, left Boston, after their respective "age 28" seasons
If Betts sees Boston as his home and if the Sox really want him then the trade was brilliant. With the Luxury Tax reset the team can spend whatever it takes to resign him. I don't think any team is going to give Betts the deal he was asking the Sox for and playing a full season for the Dodgers might even suppress his perceived value as it is not unlikely his power won't play very well in Dodger stadium. Major league baseball position players, on average (look it up, it is true) have their best season at the age of 28, Some a little earlier, some slightly later. That is the key point to consider about Betts. He may already have had his best season in 2018, but, if not, it probably is going to occur in the next year or two. Because he is such a great athlete and doesn't have some physical conditions, like overweight, that speed up declines, he probably will continue to have outstanding seasons for a while, but slowly not as great. Would it really make sense to sign him to a 10-year plus deal at $30M or more per year after a year in LA? I don't think so. This is the same problem as signing pitchers over the age of 29 or 30 to long term contracts. You really wind up up paying for past performance. I am a great believer that greed is a great destroyer of character and common sense. Betts could have had an incredible deal with the Sox that would have given him more money than he ever could need. He may live to regret not taking the deal. IMHO, I would not have made that offer and am happy it was not accepted. On the other hand, if the finances had permitted I would have offered $40M, maybe even more, for five years.
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Post by geostorm on Feb 2, 2020 5:23:40 GMT -5
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Post by geostorm on Dec 27, 2019 22:11:50 GMT -5
Haven't seen this referenced, though it may have been, previously, somewhere around here...$ aside, which we all understand will be significant, and involving multiple suitors, if a team inquired of Mookie, his interest in returning to 2B, you think that would appeal to him?...
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Post by geostorm on Nov 22, 2019 5:32:08 GMT -5
yup...pays to start at the start
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Post by geostorm on Nov 21, 2019 22:09:19 GMT -5
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Post by geostorm on Nov 15, 2019 12:52:34 GMT -5
Really curious about the spin/movement on his fastball. It looks really straight in this video, but kind of in that way that a fastball with a lot of rise can look straight sometimes? Yeah I had the same thought, but I'm not too sure how visible spin rate is on fastballs. I definitely don't trust my eye at least. Song does have a presence to him that we haven't seen in a Sox pitching prospect in a while, though. Really hoping he can defer his commitment until later in his life. That right there, is was my 1st reaction/thought, watching that video...
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Post by geostorm on Nov 15, 2019 9:23:25 GMT -5
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Post by geostorm on Oct 26, 2019 7:43:09 GMT -5
www.tabletmag.com/jewish-life-and-religion/282617/chaim-bloom-tampa-bay-rays(not one of the mainstream articles you'll see, but an interesting & insightful one, from just at the start of the 2019 season, with some nice exchanges involving Chaim, directly, on baseball, in general, the Rays approach, and, nice insights on his life intersecting with baseball) "I asked Bloom how the decision to use an opener came about. He said that it wasn’t the result of any single conversation, and it wasn’t even entirely the Rays’ own idea. “This is not something that we had just come up with, or necessarily that we came up with at all,” he explained. “This is something that I think was part of baseball conversations certainly for as long as I’ve been in the game.” Many teams had pondered whether there might be a more efficient way to use their pitchers, rather than cramming them into a rigid rotational structure. But until 2018, none had done much about it. Part of the problem was simply the reputational risk of trying something new. “If you do something conventionally and it doesn’t work, you don’t take the blame,” noted Bloom. “If you do something differently and it doesn’t work, you’re going to be under a microscope, and people are going to be pointing fingers at you.” He credits his organizational staff for taking the plunge. “They were unafraid to risk that.” The other difficulty was the human component. Even if the opener concept looked good on paper, executing it meant getting players who had trained to play the game one way to play it very differently. “It’s easy to come up with an idea,” said Bloom. “The trick is implementing the idea and communicating it and getting buy-in and getting everybody on board.” In other words, rather than treating players like cogs in a machine who can be manipulated at will, one has to treat them like human beings. “Our field staff did such a tremendous job of that,” Bloom continued. “They were willing to put in the hard work of communicating to the players: This is what we’re doing, and why. Here’s how we think it can help you, and how we think it can help us win games.” The results were apparent in interviews with Rays pitchers, who became enthusiastic evangelists for the opener. This careful process was emblematic of Bloom’s people-first approach to baseball. On paper, he is easy to typecast as an Ivy League nerd who entered baseball at the height of the Moneyball statistical revolution, and who came to upend the traditions of the game with computational analysis. Because of his age and background, many presume that Bloom is the sort of person more comfortable with databases and spreadsheets than actual players, coaches, and staff. But while Bloom is certainly fluent in advanced analytics, that’s not his calling card. This was evident when we sat behind home plate watching the Rays take on the Phillies in one of the final games of spring training. Throughout the contest, Bloom ticked off not numbers, but the names of individual prospects, where they signed from, and what was exciting about them."
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Post by geostorm on Aug 7, 2019 14:23:40 GMT -5
not certain where to post this, but based on Alex Speier's recent exchange involving Chief of Sports Medicine at Tufts, this means "retirement", for Pedroia, or, seems so?
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Post by geostorm on Jul 27, 2019 18:43:08 GMT -5
Well now...I'll bring my broom to Fenway, tomorrow, w/ my having tickets in Section 33, R10 S6-7, over in the little diamond cut-out, in LFGStands, for Sale v German!
Can't touch the "Wall", "fair", but I'll be right up against it, back under the overhang
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Post by geostorm on Jul 13, 2019 17:57:37 GMT -5
per McAgam -
Cashner is due about $3.5 million for the rest of 2019. According to an industry source, the Red Sox will get approximately $1.8 million from BAL to cover more than half of his remaining base. Also, Orioles have agreed to cover "most'' of any performance bonuses Cashner earns.
per Speier
Assistant GM Eddie Romero on Noelberth Romero and Elio Prado, the 17-yr-olds the Sox traded to Baltimore: ‘I know these guys are far off, but it hurt. When they were coming up with these names, they weren’t guys that we were hoping they’d asked for...
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Post by geostorm on Jul 13, 2019 17:14:33 GMT -5
per Sean McAdam -
"After obtaining Andrew Cashner and with the pending move of Eovaldi to bullpen, I asked Dombrowski if Red Sox might stand pat now. "We might,'' he said."
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Post by geostorm on Jul 13, 2019 16:57:58 GMT -5
more from @masnroch
Elias said trade talks with #redsox for about a week. They were most aggressive and made best offer. #orioles want to improve international talent in system
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Post by geostorm on Jul 13, 2019 16:50:54 GMT -5
Cashner isn't too exciting even with his recent success, but at least he can throw innings. Probably a Jake Peavy type of addition. They're even paying salary which I assume still keeps them under the 2nd threshhold. He does have a vesting option for next year that I haven't found yet.
[Crasnick] Andrew Cashner’s 2020 vesting option with #Orioles is for $10M. Option vests with 340 IP combined in 2018-2019. If he throws 360 IP combined in 2018-2019, it becomes a player option.
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Post by geostorm on Jul 13, 2019 16:43:59 GMT -5
"The Orioles have acquired OF Elio Prado (17) and INF Noelberth Romero (17) from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for RHP Andrew Cashner. Prado will be assigned to the DSL Orioles 1 and Romero will be assigned to the DSL Orioles 2.
Was hearing Phillies had major interest in Cashner but Red Sox get him #orioles"
per @masnroch
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Post by geostorm on Jul 13, 2019 16:43:27 GMT -5
Noelberth Romero and Elio Prado
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Post by geostorm on Jul 13, 2019 14:36:17 GMT -5
on a tangent, I found this interesting
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Post by geostorm on Jun 18, 2019 8:40:07 GMT -5
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Post by geostorm on Jun 17, 2019 22:36:25 GMT -5
Also, Bogey is the MVP of this team so far this season. He’s been incredibly steady, played good d, and come up big in a number of spots. He has a great chance at 30 HR and a reasonable one at 50 doubles, and looks like he’ll break the .300/.400/.500 barriers. He’s not amazing in one area, but he has basically no weaknesses now. He’s pretty quick, runs the bases well, makes all the routine plays and occasionally some tough ones, and he works hard and gets along with people. His blossoming into superstar territory is something we’ve all hoped for and watched occur incrementally with time. And now he’s a Sox for what should be the best six years of his career, at a more than reasonable cost. What a terrific story. Here’s hoping he gets silly hot for a long stretch and challenges Trout. Maybe unlikely, but he’s at 7-WAR pace and I’d love to see him hit 8. He’s easy to forget about because he’s so understated and workmanlike, but has there been a more quietly likable star in this organization?... ...as I read that sentence, I was thinking ahead anticipating "region", and "Patrice Bergeron" had already popped into my head, before seeing "organization", at the "turn" of that last sentence! I mean that as a compliment, as I love both these players' games, and hope they both end up career "Boston" athletes...
...limiting to "Red Sox"...what would you think of my offering up "JD", looking back again, quickly at that last sentence?
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Post by geostorm on Apr 1, 2019 19:52:33 GMT -5
I’m not actually surprised, so much. The Strasburg deal was the kicker for me (and in light of Varitek’s deals with the Sox). Boras is a generally terrific agent (at least for high-end guys) because he’s very good at negotiating max value. But in the end, he’s an agent of the player...and it’s his job to meet the desires of his clients. Like Strasburg, Bogey really wanted to stay, obviously. He got a good deal given the team’s direction and impending payroll crunch, especially in light of this past off-season’s developments. This is win-win, especially since Bogaerts will still be young enough at his next FA date that he should (especially if his true “prime” years are ahead) get paid pretty well on one last deal. He really does get to stay with a team for which his value is greater than just about any other. I am pretty ecstatic about this deal. The AAV is “low” enough that, say, replacing Pearce/Nunez next year with Chavis ablates the $8M salary bump for Bogey and keeps them salary-neutral on that front. The end of Panda’s horrific contract covers the salary bump for Sale. Porcello leaving frees $20M to cover a few arb raises, and hopefully the $12-15M salary bump Mookie would get. They might actually be able to keep most of this group together for a couple more years, depending on how aggressively they’re willing to exceed cap. I’d love it if they could, say, rip up JDM’s deal (or he just opts out), and then sign him to, say, a long deal at lower AAV that basically acts like deferred money. There are ways to eek out a few $M here and there that would allow them some more wiggle room, and he, in particular, seems like a strong bet to age well into his late-30s. Better than Nelson Cruz, for example, who’s still going strong. I think Cargo signed an extension, too, as a Boras client, much to Colorado’s subsequent chagrin. Jered Weaver, as well, iirc, though that contract still didn't age well, either...
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Post by geostorm on Mar 23, 2019 11:01:06 GMT -5
Another assessment of the Sale deal -
"Chris Sale’s 2020-24 via ZiPS Year Age IP ERA ERA+ FIP WAR $/WAR Value 2020 31 171 2.58 171 2.40 5.6 $8.24M $46.1 M 2021 32 166.7 2.70 163 2.48 5.2 $8.49M $44.1 M 2022 33 153 2.71 163 2.50 4.8 $8.74 M $42.0 M 2023 34 143.3 2.76 160 2.59 4.4 $9.00 M $39.6 M 2024 35 132.7 2.85 155 2.60 4.0 $9.27 M $37.1 M Totals 24 $209.0 M
Even while projecting relatively low innings totals, ZiPS sees Sale as half a win more valuable over that timespan than our contract estimation tool does. Indeed, Szymborski says that only Luis Severino and German Marquez (!) project to produce more WAR over the remainder of their careers. Dan’s computer is so sweet on the southpaw that it’s probably sending heart-shaped boxes of chocolate to his locker as I type. Remember, for both of Sale’s estimates I’ve lopped off his 2019 performance, in which he projects to deliver something around $47-$49 million of value while being paid just $15 million.
Based upon that $145 million figure, either the Red Sox are significantly underpaying Sale or expecting a lot less, performance-wise, than the projection systems (for what it’s worth, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system projects Sale for 22.1 WARP over the 2020-24 period). Which doesn’t seem entirely unreasonable, as they’re the ones with access to his medical file, and the risk of a career-altering injury for a pitcher is ever-present. Working backwards with the ZiPS projection and our conservative $8 million and 3% parameters, a five-year forecast of 17.0 WAR produces a valuation of $147.7 million. At $9 million per win and 5% inflation, 14.0 WAR produces a valuation of $144.2 million. "
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