SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 19, 2024 21:44:19 GMT -5
Maybe best win of the year? In the very least it's one on a short list.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 19, 2024 21:25:19 GMT -5
Tatum, Holiday and Brown brutal from 3 tonight. Without KPor and White we'd be getting killed It's statements like that is exactly why they can win a Championship. They're so good because they can win so many different ways.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 19, 2024 20:41:14 GMT -5
Welcome to the ref show RIDICULOUS hanging on the rim technical, they want these guys to get hurt apparently I'm 13 minutes behind in the game and just caught up and yes sure as $hit, ridonkulous even. Edit: Yes still very entertaining and enjoyable game so far.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 17, 2024 22:30:28 GMT -5
Tatum has amassed better stats in previous seasons, but this season he is playing like a true MVP I need to do my homework but he seems more efficient, I'm glad the counting stats are down as its shows some recognition that this starting five is the most overall talent he's started with in his career, so getting more assist and taking less shots just shows the growth in his game. I'd bet his rebounds/minute have gone up too.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 17, 2024 22:18:32 GMT -5
Why would you extend a player after 1 season? The concept of risk-reward would beat those that suggest otherwise every time. It's like hitting on 19 in blackjack, it may work out but it's proven statistically not to do it. A minimum of 2 seasons should be the moment you even begin to think about it, never mind actually do it. The number of players who had a good first year that flamed out offsets all other prevailing thoughts here. Consistency is the benchmark that separates the average player from those above average. You cannot establish consistency in any league when you only played one year in it. The team should have done a psych test on each player and be aware of those who are willing to take risks and bet on themselves versus the risk-averse players. Even if I wanted to extend a player early I'd do everything I could to postpone it to after year 3, only with exceptional players like Betts who we know was willing to bet on himself, would I even try and get something done after 2 seasons and he's a generational type talent. That and the system is not built this way. It does nothing for the owners of the team who have no reason to give up their built-in leverage where players in their first 3 years have no bargaining to speak of. Even the first three years of arbitration in years 4 through 6 are loosely based on the curve so only exceptional players are paid exceptionally, relatively speaking of course. I think suggesting signing players long-term after a year is naive on several levels.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 17, 2024 22:03:32 GMT -5
STEAMER has him sixth among all first basemen in wOBA - only Olson, Freeman, Yandy Diaz, Vlad Jr., and Harper are better. Slash is .259/.370/.487, which looks right on, to me. If you look at his numbers, he never really had that one season where he put everything together in the minors either -- until he does, that looks like a totally reasonable projection, whether by computer or human. Projection systems don't generally project breakouts unless it's someone whose stat line showed that they got weirdly unlucky. You've nailed what the algorithm is doing, I'm pretty sure. They need three years of data (weighed 5 - 4- 3) and will convert ml numbers to MLB equivalents and then add in an average improvement given age and level.
Not only did Casas not burn up the minors, he didn't arrive in MLB early.
The unavoidable error here is the assumption that that Casas was trying to achieve the best results--as opposed to trying to learn how to achieve the best results, later. I always felt he was trying to do the latter, e.g., his experimentation with choking up on two strikes. His entire approach -- trying to match his bat angle to the ball angle, while worrying much less about timing, is radical, and certainly seems correct to me.
Among 1B he was 4th in MLB and 2nd after the ASB, in the two different major metrics I looked at (a few weeks ago!). I think he'll be better this year than last.
I'm kind of surprised the amount of baseball fans who do not understand what projections are and at least a basic understanding of them. It is a system applied to all the players so it will not by definition forecast breakout players it's not what these overall systems are designed to do. I developed my own for a fantasy league with the previous 3 weighed similar to the 5,4,3 noted above and had a separate one for predicting break-outs that was shockingly simple yet very accurate. For every position I'd take players aged 23 thru 26 and subtract HR from 2B. Those with the biggest difference I'd focus on. If they also maintained an OBP about .65 higher than their BA, then their was a better than 50/50 chance the player was about to take it to another level. Highly effective and very simple. Those still in fantasy leagues can thank me next year.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 14, 2024 14:28:34 GMT -5
You guys have me more optimistic about him for this upcoming year I loved me some 1st half Yoshida, the AB quality was sublime. If he can do that for a full year the contract will be well worth it While I do think there is reasons for optimism, even some of the optimism should be somewhat tempered. Part of my job as an estimator is to mitigate risk, that said if I was a PM we'd never get projects. You should never be totally optimistic nor pessimistic either. As always a little common sense goes a long way. I think expecting his first half to carry over a full season while totally possible and maybe even improve on that it should not be counted on. To me what should be counted on is at worst slightly better than his overall numbers from last year with cautious optimism for the upside. To me it appears clear that something happened last year a nagging injury, simply work down, whatever they appear equally possible. Far more important with young players AND or newer players to any league is to see some periods where they excel as opposed to the Scott Coopers of the world. Cooper made an all-star team with the Sox and never showed anything close to exceling his first season just consistently average on a bad Red Sox team. I predicted then he'd reached his peak already as he never approached showing ANY flashes of excellence. When you hear the term reaching his potential it speaks of two different things really, one is flashes of actual production doing the walk, the other is reaching the potential the scouts see, has the god given ability but never actually producing those skillls.That said I think its a safe bet that Yoshi at least does slightly better than his overall numbers last year BUT still has a chance to actually do better than even his first half numbers suggest. IMHO it would be unwise to trade him BUT it would be wise to make him our mostly full time DH and play LF a few times a month. I think many fans will be surprised by how well he does as a hitter. I'm not confident his fielding improves but I think LF at Fenway with certain match-ups it still will make some sense to have him still play the field a few times a month.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 13, 2024 20:50:01 GMT -5
The problem with holding off on high-end FA’s until the next Pedro is in place is the next Pedro doesn’t exist. I’m drawing a blank on the last time a young, controllable, truly elite arm moved, or was even made available. King Felix was probably the closest thing to Pedro over the last 20 years and the Mariners never even considered moving him. So the idea that we need to acquire the needed chess pieces before we sit down at the board is going to be a fruitless endeavor. If they want to work around the margins this year, so be it, but I’m not seeing a whole lot of desirable players in coming classes that aren’t Japanese. That makes trading for Pedro TWICE even more remarkable. Dan Duquette was an underrated GM by most Red Sox fans.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 11, 2024 18:21:56 GMT -5
Hadn't seen this one -- thanks for the link. Speaking of Defense: the C's often play two bigs, but usually AL + Porzingas or Al + Kornet or Al + Queta. But the other day they played about a 5 minute stretch with Porzingas + Kornet where they absolutely suffocated the other team. I forget which game it was but I've been looking forward to seeing if they try it again. Another potentially great game MIL/BOS on tap for tonight. It feels like coach is experimenting with different D's and line-ups which can pay big dividends come play-off time. It's very rare for me to say Champion or bust, but if healthy this team is Championship or bust.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 10, 2024 21:31:35 GMT -5
Anyone who thinks they lost for ANY reason other than the refs overturning and blowing the call are all remembering what they were taught by the coaches from their youth. Only losers blame refs. They are right Fixed. When was the last time you heard a champion of anything saying “those refs really screwed us…” So we appear to have to different ways of viewing things, one through the lens that Santa is real and from the others that in the real world there is corruption. It exist everywhere, even in sports, that is not an option to believe or a view point. It's been proven countless times especially whenever there are large amounts of money involved. Their has been and always will be corruption when money is involved. And even though we all love sports for many various reasons including the belief installed in us when we believed everything adults told us that sports was the great level playing field of life and none of us actually want to believe it can be corrupt, that wanting to believe does not make it any less so. In fact it's that very belief that will be used against you by those actually being corrupt.
The naive crew exposes them selves in their two responses to my post here, one attempts to mock it pretending it makes no sense, another likes that post, yet another surely understands it but cuts the sentence off so only his/their side is presented. It's telling that I showed true understanding of their view and even explain why they view it the way they do as I to once did when I was a literal child. You want to belief your right AS DO I, however the WANT to believe something is right is all the more reason why you have to question why you want to and that should shed enough light on it to make one realize it's actually more likely than not in fact wrong. I'm done, others cannot make you see what you refuse to see. Eyes wide shut.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 9, 2024 19:49:56 GMT -5
Gonna need jodienichols take on this one, ready to like the hell out of that post I actually missed the game. An old neighbor invited me over to his new house to watch the NCAA title game. I've seen the replay here and now I don't think I want to go back and watch it just to piss myself off. I do find it absurd they ruled it a foul first and then overturned it. It would have made alot more sense to me if they made the wrong call live and reversed it after they reviewed it. The fact the league does not seem to care about how good or bad the refs are and we all can agree they are at best bad and more likely corrupt. If they are not being punished then that means the league either supports or even encourages what we all define as bad refereeing. Even if one does not agree with my premise it is the most logical conclusion, if I'm wrong, why does the quality of refereeing remain as poor as it does without any consequences?
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 9, 2024 19:34:45 GMT -5
Don’t leave the game in the hands of the officials and you don’t have these issues. That is making excuse and denying reality. You realize it's pros against pros and you are not going to win every game by 40 points. Sometimes you win games on the last play and every now and then you lose too.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 9, 2024 19:29:56 GMT -5
The Celtics went 20-29 from the free throw line. That is abysmal. The game was lost at the charity stripe. They should run suicides until they puke* * sorry, I was momentarily taken over by the spirit of my 8th grade CYO coach. Carry on. Anyone who thinks they lost for ANY reason other than the refs overturning and blowing the call are all remembering what they were taught by the coaches from their youth. Only losers blame refs. They are right but only for the actual players and the coaches themselves. You have to have the ability to rationalize that what you were taught only applied to a specific time and place in your life and you have now outgrown that and be able to see reality for what it actually is. If not your are still brainwashed and are not even aware how brain washed you actually are.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 5, 2024 18:47:44 GMT -5
With Shai at an MVP level the Thunder are legitimate championship contenders. Can't wait to see them again. So I just watched the second half of the game, I fell asleep while watching late in the first half, and I found it very refreshing that no-one complained about the refs, myself included, after a tough loss. No-one cried the Celts don't have it the backboard is falling yadda yadda yadda. I was also surprised that Scal in the post game said no way is OKC a contender to win the West this year. I loved the way Tatum attacked the net and took on SGA in the fourth quarter and the run the Celts put on at the end. Even the third quarter as bad as it was does appear to be something the Celts have put past themselves with their recent play in the third quarter. One of the few games a year that you just tip your cap and move on.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 5, 2024 17:25:20 GMT -5
Mark it down everyone we already got our "I'm in the best shape of my life" statement and we're not even in the new year! Is that a record? In all seriousness though, I'm glad to see that. Some of those pictures I saw the dude looked like he was posing for Mr. Olympia or something. Muscles are great and all but too much can cause diminishing returns. Edit: I'm a fool and the original comment was in jest. However it made me realize I can't wait to read all the "I'm in best shape of my life" statements in about a month or two! John Schreiber let a BSOML slip out on @bradfo's podcast a few weeks ago and bradfo had a party with it... If you work out correctly even with weights you actually increase your flexibility.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 2, 2024 21:17:30 GMT -5
I simply will never understand anyone wanting to extend Babe Ruth himself after one season. The best year to do it even being extremely aggressive is after year two, hell personally I'd wait to after year 3 and even then only with players you forecast to have multiple all-star appearances. From the management side you have the leverage its the way the owners have designed the system so why would you/they give that away willingly. One good to great year should not impress anyone, the ability to repeat good/greatness is the only thing that should impress anyone and I cannot for the life of me think anyone with a modicum of intelligence would think differently. Of course I always reserve the possibility that I've missed something. An exception is if you are able to sign the player to a long term deal that is well below/ below what they could have gotten on the open market. Most players are not that risk adverse. All of us should balance risk, the better you are the more risk you should take, aka be willing to bet on yourself, in other words what Betts did. I'm stepping off the soap box now. This is literally every extension. It's the very reason that teams sign extensions.
Oh come on, read the entire post, digest it. I don't feel your response is necessary or even warranted. Of course extensions happen, I'm addressing how often people, typically younger fans, who want to extend anyone who shows any promise after even only one year. IMHO that's foolish. The debate for me does not even begin until after year 2 or even late year 2 or after the third year, and even then it's reserved for players like Betts who ironically enough had no intention of ever signing an extension because he bet on himself.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 2, 2024 20:24:27 GMT -5
“Nick Pivetta had the 10th-best ERA (3.16) and 12th-best FIP (3.27) in baseball after being demoted to the bullpen (minimum 100 IP). After May 16th: 30 G/8 GS 102.2 IP 3.16 ERA/3.27 FIP 12.4 K/9 2.7 BB/9 1.2 HR/9 .181 BAA“ This is the type of player who needs to be extended! IMO, he should be listened in everyone’s rotation in this thread…. and he does not cost 20-30 million per year. I hope the Red Sox appreciate what they already have! He is listed as starting 8 games, but most of his second half games were pitched innings 2 through the end of the 7th or there about (a non-starter starter). He pitched 142.2 innings and struck out 183! That is impressive. Yes, it's occurred to me that nobody talks about a Pivetta extension, but if they're able to extend only one of him or Casas this off-season due to a desire to stay under the LTT in 2024, I'd rather see them go with Pivetta. That's simply because he's on the verge of FA and Casas still has five seasons to go. I simply will never understand anyone wanting to extend Babe Ruth himself after one season. The best year to do it even being extremely aggressive is after year two, hell personally I'd wait to after year 3 and even then only with players you forecast to have multiple all-star appearances. From the management side you have the leverage its the way the owners have designed the system so why would you/they give that away willingly. One good to great year should not impress anyone, the ability to repeat good/greatness is the only thing that should impress anyone and I cannot for the life of me think anyone with a modicum of intelligence would think differently. Of course I always reserve the possibility that I've missed something. An exception is if you are able to sign the player to a long term deal that is well below/ below what they could have gotten on the open market. Most players are not that risk adverse. All of us should balance risk, the better you are the more risk you should take, aka be willing to bet on yourself, in other words what Betts did. I'm stepping off the soap box now.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 1, 2024 22:01:28 GMT -5
They seriously need to be asking the league if there it some league mandate to screw the Bruins. I am not a whine about the refs guy generally, but this is getting so out of hand. Can we juts plaster Gs when they leave the blue from now on? Probably only if it's done to us is it okay. When it took so long to make the call, I said to the Mrs. the only reason it can be taking this long is because the are looking for some bs loophole to not call goalie interference and sure as shit I nailed it. It was a bs call and the league is up to shenanigans, I don't know if it was a spread call or something but can anyone really argue any different???
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 31, 2023 17:10:00 GMT -5
The assumption here is that Grissom will start at 2B on OD. Is that guaranteed? He was pretty horrendous in the ML last year. I know it was a SSS but he was REALLY bad. He was -4.4 WAR/150 on both B-Ref and FG. That's hard to do. The projections are better but he doesn't seem like a guy who should be counted on for 140 games. Not a guarantee but Breslow did say their expectation is that he is the MLB 2B. And his defensive #s at second-base have merely been slightly below average after converting over from SS. His age, athleticism, and what he had blocking him leads me to believe he will improve at second enough not to be a liability and think his defensive profile is being exaggerated.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 30, 2023 22:07:12 GMT -5
Another well played game McAvoy may be down for a bit. Looked like he hurt his leg pretty good colliding with the goalie trying to get back Update after the game, there's a decent chance he doesn't miss anytime, he had a "stinger". It looked to me like he was very likely to miss some time and I was just hoping it wasn't worse, but they dodged a bullet instead. Geekies been playing well lately, seems like they are saying his name a lot lately and it's usually for a good reason. We need to get Debrusk going and he just might be starting a good streak with 4 points his last 2 games but overall he's been a real disappointment and someone who I thought would need to build off last season.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 30, 2023 21:53:55 GMT -5
You can’t just be outright averse to trading any prospects For instance as of this moment in time someone like Luzardo or Kirby is way more valuable than Mayer I don’t want to trade any of them, but I can accept it in a deal for a 1/2 young and controlled SP Don’t want to go crazy but saying no prospect trades at all is running a team with an arm tied behind your back I think most people when they say they wouldn't trade a prospect don't mean they actually wouldn't but that it is so unlikely as to not seeing any deal that makes sense. As a GM you have to have a completely open minded and not harbor any absolutes. I know some mean it when they say it but I really think most, myself included, don't actual mean it.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 30, 2023 20:44:17 GMT -5
I understand the emotional connection folks have to Sale, but expecting him to give you ~20 start, ~110 ERA+ season is completely out of the realm of reality. This is a pitcher who has only started 31 games in the last *4* years. We’ve played this gamble that we see a full quality season from him for far too long. That said, I’m thrilled with this return. Vaughn has a lot of potential even considering some misgivings about defense and I don’t see him going anywhere in a trade this off-season. Also, I think folks are tremendously overvaluing Yorke. If Breslow pulls off a trade for a frontline SP, it’s Mayer who’s headlining any package with Yorke being the 3rd or 4th piece. Two prospects that I simply cannot see being traded are Anthony and Teel. Mayer after being hurt last doesn't make any sense either as it would be in the sell when the value is low mode. I don't see other teams giving up to much for Rafaela either and I think due to his upside and unique hitting profile he's simply worth more to Boston than anyone else. So after our top 4, have at it. Yorke definitely becomes more tradeable, we have several redundant cost controlled young players already in Boston that has some value too.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 30, 2023 20:04:58 GMT -5
Then why did the Braves sour on him and trade him for 1 year of Chris Sale? Either the scouting reports are wrong or a regression is coming. The Braves are broke, need a pitcher, and Grissom was blocked What are you doing going and using logic, what's that all about?
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 30, 2023 19:58:33 GMT -5
Or you are grasping at whatever you can to insist your right rather than just give up the ghost and admit you are wrong. Regardless of what scout graded him when he was first drafted why not I don't know base it on several actual years of results. Don't blame the scouts, but rather admit you are grasping at straws. Not that big a deal.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 30, 2023 19:29:47 GMT -5
Oh yeah, actually you are a right. Now that we are a small market team who doesn't compete to win. This trade does make sense when you look at it with that lens. Lol. Sale cant stay healthy For anyone who didn't like the trade, Grandsalami said it all right there. He can't stay healthy and now at least we can stop here the excuse of not needing an ace because that is what Sale is, when healthy. It was IMHO foolish to consider him anything more than a #4 or #5 pitcher precisely because he could not stay healthy. It's like having a Lamborghini that never really leaves the shop, what is the point?
|
|
|