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Post by jmei on Apr 13, 2023 13:29:26 GMT -5
I have to admit, I was excited for a hot second by Chang's WBC performance. Was almost looking forward to the Eric Van "who's the last guy to hit X home runs in the WBC?" breakout prediction. Sigh.
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Post by jmei on Apr 12, 2023 21:12:09 GMT -5
Good teams make their luck. Bad teams use it as an excuse. This is kind of a meaningless tautology.
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Post by jmei on Apr 12, 2023 20:23:55 GMT -5
Bunting for a hit there is not the worst idea in the world. But it’s still a bad idea.
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Post by jmei on Apr 12, 2023 20:22:12 GMT -5
They’re down two runs. Why is Chang sac bunting?
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Post by jmei on Apr 12, 2023 20:15:24 GMT -5
Franco is going to be a big problem in this division for a long time (bad read on the sac fly notwithstanding).
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Post by jmei on Apr 12, 2023 20:12:45 GMT -5
Martin has been pretty inexplicably bad this year.
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Post by jmei on Apr 12, 2023 20:12:29 GMT -5
Adam is so unconventional. He's like final form Ryan Weber. His stuff has such crazy movement—almost knuckleball-like.
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Post by jmei on Apr 12, 2023 19:29:38 GMT -5
Guys like Dalbec, Duran, Downs, Cordero, etc. being virtual zeroes at the major league level over the last 18 months is a sneaky big reason they’ve struggled so far. If those guys were even just serviceable backups, this team would be in a lot better place.
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Post by jmei on Apr 12, 2023 19:12:11 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Apr 12, 2023 19:10:38 GMT -5
They seemingly chose Chang over Iglesias, considering the latter signed a minor league deal. So disagree with your evaluations of the players but it seems clear the team considered Chang a more viable MLBer. IâÂÂm also not sure you can say âÂÂjust sign Andrus and Duvallâ because both those guys wanted starting jobs and the Red Sox only had one to give. The bizarro dimension of this conversation is that, with how things started, the Duvall move looks absolutely genius. That was an outside-the-box solution to the unexpected injury to Story that might not have occurred to a lot of teams, and it could not possibly have worked better through the first week of the season. We can grouse about it pushing Kiké to SS, but they addressed that, too, with the Mondesi addition, and even with that progressing slower than expected at worst we're looking at Kiké as SS through May, which is not totally disastrous, all things considered - and with Chang as a viable plan E or whatever to boot.
They could have absolutely signed both. I do not think you can call pushing Kiké to SS a genius move considering how bad he has been defensively there, which was entirely predictable. Kiké is a great example of a player who should be your first guy off the bench. His 2021 is increasingly looking like the outlier.
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Post by jmei on Apr 12, 2023 19:07:12 GMT -5
Here’s the thing about depth. Guys like Yu Chang or Raimel Tapia are not meaningful depth. They are replacement-level spaghetti against the wall. Depth means having legitimate major league players on your bench. If guys like Duvall or Arroyo were backups rather starters entering spring training, that would be depth. I don’t buy the Story and Mondesi injuries as excuses. They knew both those guys would be out for big chunks of the season midway through the offseason. They really needed to add another middle infielder (and there were options in Andrus, Iglesias and others) but chose not to and are now dealing with the consequences. On the one hand, sure, but on the other hand, we gave ~1500 PAs last year to guys who were considerably worse than replacement level, many of whom hadn't even played meaningful innings at the MLB level. Guys like Chang and Tapia have at least had several years of major league experience and have been a bit above replacement level over their careers. Refsnyder is obviously a regression candidate, but he was straight up good last year.
Disagree about Mondesi, though. I remember on the SP podcast Chris and Ian hadn't even thought moving Mondesi to the 60-day was on the table and spent some time debating other possible roster moves if we wanted to add a guy like Tapia. I also remember an interview with Cora early in Spring Training in which he said Mondesi still had an outside chance of making the Opening Day roster. So, I really don't think they were planning on him not being an option until June.
Yes, I agree that they had bad depth last year, too. This front office seems to talk a lot about the concept but then run out a revolving door of replacement-level guys. Mondesi was always going to miss at least a month. The games count in April, too.
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Post by jmei on Apr 12, 2023 19:01:32 GMT -5
Here’s the thing about depth. Guys like Yu Chang or Raimel Tapia are not meaningful depth. They are replacement-level spaghetti against the wall. Depth means having legitimate major league players on your bench. If guys like Duvall or Arroyo were backups rather starters entering spring training, that would be depth. I don’t buy the Story and Mondesi injuries as excuses. They knew both those guys would be out for big chunks of the season midway through the offseason. They really needed to add another middle infielder (and there were options in Andrus, Iglesias and others) but chose not to and are now dealing with the consequences. Have you checked on what Andrus or Iglesias have been up to lately? Andrus is at -0.4 WAR on the season and Iglesias didn't even make the Marlins major league roster. If the Red Sox felt that Yu Chang was a straight up better alternative than those guys... well, they haven't been proven wrong yet. I don’t think any reasonable projection system should have Yu Chang as a better player than Andrus or Iglesias. I will bet an avatar that from this point forward Andrus will be better than Chang.
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Post by jmei on Apr 12, 2023 18:58:37 GMT -5
Game’s not over yet.
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Post by jmei on Apr 12, 2023 18:54:26 GMT -5
Here’s the thing about depth. Guys like Yu Chang or Raimel Tapia are not meaningful depth. They are replacement-level spaghetti against the wall. Depth means having legitimate major league players on your bench. If guys like Duvall or Arroyo were backups rather starters entering spring training, that would be depth. I don’t buy the Story and Mondesi injuries as excuses. They knew both those guys would be out for big chunks of the season midway through the offseason. They really needed to add another middle infielder (and there were options in Andrus, Iglesias and others) but chose not to and are now dealing with the consequences.
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Post by jmei on Apr 12, 2023 18:45:25 GMT -5
Poor fundamentals strike again.
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Post by jmei on Apr 11, 2023 5:01:15 GMT -5
It is pretty well established in modern investing that one way to maximize returns over a long time horizon is to hold a well-diversified basket of uncorrelated assets. You can draw a line based on that idea from the rise of modern portfolio theory in the 50s through to the current dominance of the pod shop hedge funds. Part and parcel of that philosophy is that you shouldn’t hold outsized concentrated positions, even if you believe in them strongly. Now, query how well that model applies to MLB team building (that’s a discussion for another thread), but that’s what I think intellectually underpins Bloom’s roster construction philosophy. That's fair and I get that, even though both modern investing and our GM would have you at a net loss over the last 3 years. Maybe my complaint is more specific in that I don't like Bloom's strategy and think that he's diversified too extensively. The pitching staff consists of Sale (who Bloom didn't sign) plus seven other starters who at least for this year roughly profile like #4 starters. The lineup consists of Devers (who I still argue they were nervous to sign/keep) and 8 players who roughly profile as #5-6 hitters. I'm over-generalizing and there are some caveats I could add, but the main point is that I would like a more defined core of players that the team is built around. IMO, the first 2 starters should be set in stone. 1-4 in the lineup should be too. I think you'd end up with a better W-L record and the fans would be happier too. Right, but those guys are really expensive (in trade or free agency), and if you don’t already have them on cost-controlled contracts, in a world with finite resources, it’s tough to acquire those guys and still fill out your roster (and not sacrifice future payroll flexibility and/or empty out the farm system). It’s fine to prefer a stars and scrubs roster, but that’s just not how Bloom is going to construct a team.
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Post by jmei on Apr 10, 2023 21:27:33 GMT -5
I guess Devers' 10-year extension did nothing whatsoever to silence this complaint? I don't know what else they were supposed to do after Bogaerts (who they belatedly tried to sign to a long-term deal) got away and Story (who they did sign to a long-term deal) got hurt. They could have gone after Correa, I suppose, if you think that would have been an especially good risk to take on...
They should have never got to "after" and signing Devers, IMO, was an act of self defense rather than something they truly wanted to do. I am genuinely curious, my comment is only 20% snark. Can't sign Bogaerts at $27M per year, but can sign Story and Yoshida at $37M per (or whichever combination of riskier contracts you'd prefer as an example). Mitigating risk in the last 3 years of Bogaert's contract by taking on short-term risk isn't fully computing. I guess I'm missing the logic of "Why suck in 2030 when we can suck right now?". It's like Bloom's the type of guy who won't buy a new car even though he has the money, but buys a "great deal" of a used car with 170,000 miles and gets pissed when it breaks down...and his remedy is to buy a second used car. It is pretty well established in modern investing that one way to maximize returns over a long time horizon is to hold a well-diversified basket of uncorrelated assets. You can draw a line based on that idea from the rise of modern portfolio theory in the 50s through to the current dominance of the pod shop hedge funds. Part and parcel of that philosophy is that you shouldn’t hold outsized concentrated positions, even if you believe in them strongly. Now, query how well that model applies to MLB team building (that’s a discussion for another thread), but that’s what I think intellectually underpins Bloom’s roster construction philosophy.
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Post by jmei on Apr 10, 2023 19:45:00 GMT -5
Martin's always been a bit homer prone. Can't get too upset about that one.
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Post by jmei on Apr 10, 2023 19:42:13 GMT -5
One of the secrets to Wink's success so far this year: throw more cutters and sliders, throw fewer fastballs. Per Statcast: -2022: 51.3% four-seamers and sinkers, 38.9% cutters and sliders -2023: 39.6% four-seamers and sinkers, 58.4% cutters and sliders there's also this, courtesy of redsoxstats It's interesting, because even though he's getting a velo bump out of the bullpen and more extension, he's still throwing the fastball less often. I've always thought one of the simplest things you could do to improve your pitcher development is to have them throw their best pitches more often and their worst pitches less often. Wink has always had solid velo but his FB has never been as effective as you'd have thought (reputed to be due to lack of movement and fringy command), so why not lean on the cutter/slider instead.
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Post by jmei on Apr 10, 2023 19:33:26 GMT -5
Was Winck part of Benny trade? Didn’t the Sox get Lee and then turn him around for Winck? Or was it a legit 3-way deal? It was a three-way trade, but the Mets were only involved insofar as they gave up Wink and received Lee, so I suppose it's in the eye of the beholder how "legit" it was. Feels like a semantic point, though.
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Post by jmei on Apr 10, 2023 19:30:13 GMT -5
This is the game right here.
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Post by jmei on Apr 10, 2023 19:28:56 GMT -5
One of the secrets to Wink's success so far this year: throw more cutters and sliders, throw fewer fastballs. Per Statcast: -2022: 51.3% four-seamers and sinkers, 38.9% cutters and sliders -2023: 39.6% four-seamers and sinkers, 58.4% cutters and sliders
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Post by jmei on Apr 10, 2023 19:21:01 GMT -5
Based on this season so far, Kiké has solid range at SS, he just can't really make the throws with the consistent zip and accuracy needed for the position.
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Post by jmei on Apr 10, 2023 13:00:48 GMT -5
So we're sending pick from Hawks via Blazers to Thunder? No one seems to know the pick, yet no way Stevens sent that high second and a 2029 2nd for Muscala right? The Masslive article lays out the two scenarios pretty clearly: At the time of the Muscala trade, the Blazers were 28-30, so that Portland second-round pick looked like a mid-round pick and not a great loss. Of course, Portland ended the season going 5-19 from there, but I don't know that it's fair to say that the Celtics front office should have predicted that at the time.
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Post by jmei on Apr 9, 2023 18:09:08 GMT -5
Well, if Duvall misses time and those PAs mostly go to Refsnyder instead, it'll be yet another test (in addition to the pitching injuries) of the theory that this team should be resilient because they've got league-average players all the way to the end of the roster. Going by projections*, swapping out Duvall for Refsnyder is basically replacing one 110 wRC+ outfielder for another. *except for ZiPS, which has really gone bananas for Duvall, projecting him for a 130 wRC+ the rest of the way
Based on their calling up Dalbec (rather than Duran), it seems like heâll effectively be replaced by Chang (and a bit of Dalbec), with Kiké moving to CF.
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