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Post by jmei on May 1, 2024 11:53:00 GMT -5
This new front office does seem to like its spaghetti against the wall more than the last one did.
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Post by jmei on May 1, 2024 11:47:18 GMT -5
He's been pretty terrible offensively in the majors but has put up 93, 99 and 131 wRC+s in AAA the last three years. Don't have to squint too hard to conclude that he's worth a shot over Reyes and Hamilton, especially if you're primarily concerned about present value. He certainly looks like a better defender than both and projection systems think he's close enough offensively.
| ZiPS | Steamer | THE BAT X | Z. Short | 84 | 83 | 86 | P. Reyes | 92 | 91 | 77 | D. Hamilton | 88 | 85 | 76 |
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Post by jmei on May 1, 2024 11:34:10 GMT -5
The primary reason companies hire consultants like this is to give them cover to make unpopular decisions that they have already decided that they're going to make. You pay a lot of money to hire a sophisticated, theoretically neutral third party to run a comprehensive formal process that results in a well-researched and well-written summary of issues you already know exist. Another signal that additional organizational changes (including personnel changes) are coming.
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Post by jmei on Apr 30, 2024 13:21:37 GMT -5
Don't know how comparing a guy to Meyers became an insult. He's a clear #2 wide receiver and has been paid as such on the open market. That's a slam dunk good outcome for a second-round pick.
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Post by jmei on Apr 30, 2024 12:59:47 GMT -5
I can't believe we're still arguing about this in the year of our lord 2024. Criticizing the projections for missing on players A, B and C is about as valuable a contribution to internet discourse as criticizing the weatherman for blowing the forecast. It shows a fundamental misunderstanding of statistics and probability that I had empathy for back in the 2002-ish Moneyball days, but now, more than 20 years later, most of which has been spent on this very forum, is just boring and played out reflexive tribalism. I don't even have it in me to try and provide a good faith explainer anymore. I get it, you're tired of the nerds being the smartest guys in the room and making you feel inadequate, so you beat your chests every time a projection system fails (which they do an overwhelming majority of the time). It's just not an interesting discussion anymore. /rant "There's no justification for not spending $10-15 million extra dollars to get a couple more wins". I don't know how many times this was repeated this offseason, but it was a lot; all the while using projections from ZiPS and Steamer and everywhere else. You even had people specifically saying why they don't like such and such projection. There wouldn't be as many people resistant to learning about statistics or accepting them, if there weren't so many people using them to hammer people over their heads about how right they are. It never starts out as a criticism of the projection, it always starts out with someone misusing them and then people reduce everything to the lowest common denominator and try to pick apart the projection because it is the lowest hanging fruit to say, Jorge Soler. I'm totally OK with criticizing misuse of projections. But the braggadocio about projections being wrong is so misguided.
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Post by jmei on Apr 30, 2024 12:30:20 GMT -5
I can't believe we're still arguing about this in the year of our lord 2024. Criticizing the projections for missing on players A, B and C is about as valuable a contribution to internet discourse as criticizing the weatherman for blowing the forecast. It shows a fundamental misunderstanding of statistics and probability that I had empathy for back in the 2002-ish Moneyball days, but now, more than 20 years later, most of which has been spent on this very forum, is just boring and played out reflexive tribalism. I don't even have it in me to try and provide a good faith explainer anymore. I get it, you're tired of the nerds being the smartest guys in the room and making you feel inadequate, so you beat your chests every time a projection system fails (which they do an overwhelming majority of the time). It's just not an interesting discussion anymore. /rant
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Post by jmei on Apr 29, 2024 13:51:41 GMT -5
Feels like there's always too much consternation about the 25th (now 26th, I guess) guy on the roster. Reyes is maybe a slightly better player than, say, Dalbec today, but he's got a pretty low ceiling and they have a glut of middle infielders who can't really play SS defensively (both in Boston and AAA), so he was getting DFAed eventually. Feels like a reasonable decision to use ceiling (where I think Reyes ranks the lowest of this quartet) as a tiebreaker for which bit of flotsam gets jettisoned first.
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Post by jmei on Dec 3, 2023 14:24:14 GMT -5
Without Stevenson, every one of their offensive units (QB, RB, WR, TE, OL) is bottom 10 or worse.
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Post by jmei on Dec 1, 2023 9:34:40 GMT -5
Easy to throw rocks with the power of hindsight. I don’t put a lot of weight in the “we had him high on our draft board” stuff that only comes out afterwards.
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Post by jmei on Nov 28, 2023 17:45:06 GMT -5
Wouldn’t have guessed that catcher would be their worst projected position.
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Post by jmei on Nov 28, 2023 12:30:25 GMT -5
I still think the Patriots are going to win a couple of these remaining games. Their defense and running game are decent enough and can’t get much worse at QB.
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Post by jmei on Nov 27, 2023 10:58:16 GMT -5
They’ll definitely bring in competition for next season. But for the rest of the season, might as well see what he can do.
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Post by jmei on Nov 26, 2023 22:04:23 GMT -5
I had assumed that Brisett and Svi would have been getting minutes in a game like this. But I like the outcome by a shorthanded team. I do kind of wish they could land on a backup wing or two to fit that spot in the rotation. That guy or guys is going to play a decent amount and they’ve been cycling through those two plus Banton.
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Post by jmei on Nov 26, 2023 15:55:12 GMT -5
Beautiful stuff there.
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Post by jmei on Nov 26, 2023 15:28:35 GMT -5
The defense really was terrible last year in a way that makes the pitching look a lot worse than it actually was.
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Post by jmei on Nov 26, 2023 15:27:06 GMT -5
To be clear, for all the grief, Mac is still better than Zappe.
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Post by jmei on Nov 26, 2023 14:48:37 GMT -5
Given how awful that first half performance was, feels like they need to give Zappe a chance here if nothing else to maintain some credibility with the rest of the team.
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Post by jmei on Nov 26, 2023 14:34:05 GMT -5
Mac is bad, but did Bill not naming the QB screw with his head even more than it already was? He's playing like a guy who is completely defeated and gave up. This is easily the worst game of his career. You'd almost think he was on team tank. If he didn’t have the mental toughness to deal with the last two weeks, he was never going to make it in this league regardless.
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Post by jmei on Nov 26, 2023 14:08:48 GMT -5
Well, at least we know for sure that Mac Jones is not an adequate starting QB now.
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Post by jmei on Nov 25, 2023 21:33:30 GMT -5
Zach Lowe had a great monologue about the Celtics on a recent podcast. I agree with his diagnosis—a big piece of the benefit of having so many good shooters should be an empty lane to drive against. Tatum has used it to his advantage at times, but he, Brown, Holiday and White all need to just drive it with an emphasis on scoring at the rim (or drawing fouls) rather than focus on drive and kick for catch and shoot threes.
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Post by jmei on Nov 25, 2023 13:31:16 GMT -5
Not that odd at all. He wasn’t in contention to start or be the first backup, they needed the roster spot and he likely reverts to the practice squad.
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Post by jmei on Nov 24, 2023 16:38:00 GMT -5
very mature, great contributions Just sick of you being a condescending, know it all asshole This is totally uncalled for. Please cut it out.
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Post by jmei on Nov 22, 2023 23:22:38 GMT -5
Celtics were up by nine with ninety seconds left and the Bucks made two back to back threes to kind of make it a game before the Celtics closed it out. I’m supposed to be upset about that?
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Post by jmei on Nov 22, 2023 22:38:39 GMT -5
Expectations are too high if you’re disappointed by a closer than it should have been win over your biggest rival.
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Post by jmei on Nov 21, 2023 8:51:10 GMT -5
Jaylen is still inconsistent but, at his peak, he’s better than anyone we could trade him for. That’s tough to give up.
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