SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
|
Post by jmei on Oct 12, 2023 8:16:18 GMT -5
Derrick White is going to be a monster this year. Given the rest of the roster, not going to put up big scoring numbers, but he's going to fill up the rest of the box score, be an elite defender, move the ball/push the pace on offense and be the perfect complementary player whether as a starter or a sixth man.
The roster fit with their top sixth or seven rotation players in general is really good, which matters a lot in the NBA.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 10, 2023 0:25:46 GMT -5
The root cause is a historically bad offensive line. Can’t do much when that’s the case. Can’t run the ball. Can’t throw the ball. Even on the rare occasions where the line holds up, your QB is spooked and can’t make the right reads. They put a lot on veteran retreads and reclamation projects. They’ve all failed spectacularly. Oh, the rest of the offense sucks too and you lost your two best defenders. If Malik Cunningham is the answer, I don’t want to know the question.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 9, 2023 8:13:31 GMT -5
The atmosphere was electric for a preseason game. The Celtics are going to be big beneficiaries of the lack of enthusiasm for the Patriots and Red Sox.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 8, 2023 12:51:55 GMT -5
Maybe it wasn’t Matt Patricia. Maybe Mac just sucks.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 5, 2023 7:02:26 GMT -5
I do think Smart out and Holiday in might have a big impact on the team culture. Marcus is competitive as hell but also a big talker and I bet Tatum and Brown were sick of him lecturing them about passing the ball by the end. Jrue, as a guy with championship experience and a sterling reputation, might be the kind of veteran who breaks through to them by leading by example.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 3, 2023 15:14:46 GMT -5
You have to look at context. During the last two years, Holiday was the Bucks' number two offensive option (and number one when Giannis was on the bench or hurt). Holiday is not a good enough scorer to succeed in that role, but as the third/fourth offensive option on this Boston team, he's going to thrive. Judging him solely based on small samples over the last two playoffs is not indicative of what he's going to do here.
For example, over the last three regular seasons, Holiday has averaged 4.3 pull-up three-point attempts per game and hit 36.1% of them while averaging 1.8 catch-and-shoot 3PA/game and hitting 45.4% of them. Those attempts are going to flip (more catch and shoot, less pull up) on this team, and his three-point percentage will tick up accordingly. He's also going to get far more opportunities to drive against a closeout or pick on a weak defender on this roster, which will help his shot chart and his two-point efficiency. I'm pretty confident he's going to have one of his most efficient offensive seasons of his career next year.
The big schematic change is going from a two-big lineup to a one-big lineup with Tatum at the 4. But I'm OK with that change. The Celtics had success with Rob Williams as the defensive rover during the last two regular seasons, but teams started to exploit him in the playoffs by involving his man more in the action. He put up monster net ratings in the regular season but was pretty bad in the playoffs, especially in the Heat series when I believe he had the worst defensive net rating on the team. Miami repeatedly abused him by either ISOing him on the perimeter (Butler) or moving off the ball and either firing up catch and shoot threes or pump faking and driving (Martin, Robinson). The coaching staff clearly wanted to move away from the double-big lineup last year, and now they have a roster that fits that vision.
Their depth is definitely weaker, but it's tough to build a team that has both elite top-end talent and a lot of depth, and given the option, I'd rather focus on the top-end talent that matters more in the playoffs. They're going to win lots of regular-season games regardless, but this move dramatically improves their ceiling.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 3, 2023 9:17:48 GMT -5
Look, this team wasn’t going to be more than a fringe wild card contender anyways. In some ways, better to have a reset year. It does make it harder to evaluate Mac, though. Agreed but it’s only a reset year if they win 3 games or less and end up with a top 3 pick That would be ideal, but Mac is going to be too competitive (he's clearly playing for his job now) and the rest of the roster is good enough that I don't see them bottoming out without further injuries. I'd settle for a top-10 pick and clarity on the QB position going forward (one way or another).
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 3, 2023 6:12:50 GMT -5
Look, this team wasn’t going to be more than a fringe wild card contender anyways. In some ways, better to have a reset year. It does make it harder to evaluate Mac, though.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 3, 2023 6:10:38 GMT -5
Maybe we should all just take a moment to think about a closing lineup of Holiday, White, Brown, Tatum and Porzingus. What team in the league wants to defend that? There’s not one guy you can help off of. Last year we had multiple guys you could. Not only is there not a weak spot offensively, there’s not a weak spot defensively. They could switch with everyone but Porzingis pretty easily.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 2, 2023 6:44:06 GMT -5
I think you guys are underrating Jrue Holiday. He’s a perfect fit for this roster and his efficiency will tick up once he’s not asked to be the first or second offensive option/creator. Still one of the best defenders in the league with some positional flexibility (can guard Lillard, Maxey, Butler, Harden, etc.). Rob Williams still has a ton of potential but his injury history makes him unreliable and unclear whether he was going to play crunch time minutes on this roster. They probably gave up one pick too many but that’s what it took to keep him away from one of the other Eastern Conference contenders.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 25, 2023 14:39:48 GMT -5
Trent Brown looked really good yesterday. That was unexpected. Some guys just need a little extra motivation and he might be one of those guys.
Mac Jones is almost certainly a dirty (OK, call it petty instead if you prefer) player. He plays the position where it does the least damage to other players, but it's a pattern of dickish after-the-whistle behavior now. Not the worst thing in the world given his position, but he's solidly earned that reputation at this point. Not just from the alleged crotch hit, but for asininely pushing the pile well after the whistle had blown as well.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 18, 2023 12:12:58 GMT -5
Their offensive personnel is just not very good. One of the worst OLs in the league, mediocre skill position players and a QB who needs a strong system around him to thrive (struggles under pressure and more of a dink-and-dunk guy who struggles to consistently get chunk yardage). Not sure I agree with that assessment on Mac. His receivers are mega sh*t, the OL is a joke and he's in the third OC in 3 years. And he still looks decent. Any QB would struggle under that much pressure and who on this roster can get chunk yardage? His career has been mismanaged to hell. I acknowledge all that in my original post, but good quarterbacks really ought to be able to elevate the players around them, and I don't see a whole lot of that from Mac. It's not a big problem if he's a league-average quarterback (can't really expect much more from him than that), but he is increasingly looking like just a league-average quarterback.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 18, 2023 9:36:31 GMT -5
Their offensive personnel is just not very good. One of the worst OLs in the league, mediocre skill position players and a QB who needs a strong system around him to thrive (struggles under pressure and more of a dink-and-dunk guy who struggles to consistently get chunk yardage).
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 3, 2023 20:50:32 GMT -5
When I’m being lazy, I roughly average ERA/FIP/xFIP/xERA.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Aug 29, 2023 20:21:00 GMT -5
It’s disingenuous to, with the power of hindsight, criticize a front office for not trading all their prospects at the peak of their value. Especially when you only do so with one particular front office (who you also insultingly refer to as “Mr. Bloom”).
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Aug 29, 2023 14:25:32 GMT -5
Total speculation, but I wonder if Rafaela is being bumped a day in light of his getting picked off 1B last night.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Aug 29, 2023 13:00:21 GMT -5
I am fine with Duvall on a one-year deal in the $12-15M range, especially if they're planning to go over the CBT. I am quite a bit more nervous if he wants a multi-year deal. The right handed power is sorely needed, but he's not an adequate defensive center fielder at this point in his career, he's had some injury issues and he's at the age where performance can quickly collapse.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Aug 29, 2023 6:15:25 GMT -5
I think the only thing anyone is saying is that you can't manage all 162 games like a playoff game. Not even the last 35 or whatever there is left. If there was one game that you were going to manage like a playoff game, wasn’t it this one? (This coming from a guy who does not really believe in must win games.)
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Aug 28, 2023 21:24:36 GMT -5
Rotating a replacement-level arm through that last spot in the bullpen, especially when you've got a few short-term issues to manage (Bernadino on the COVID IL, rotating Murphy out since he ate innings yesterday) is something every single organization does, including successful ones like the Dodgers and Rays. You just don't expect the manager to use that guy in a high-leverage situation. but this post doesn't really respond to the point. Why was he the guy chosen to be up here, during the most important games of the season ? Who made that choice ? Were there other options in the minors ? Were there deadline trades ? was it a salary issue ? it is fine to blame Cora in real time. that is when mangers deserve criticism. But what about all the hours of research and planning before that moment ? That is the point most people around here wont acknowledge. Because he can throw bulk innings in a low-leverage situation. That's it.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Aug 28, 2023 21:17:06 GMT -5
Well, that wasn't so great.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Aug 28, 2023 21:15:53 GMT -5
Chasing a pitch out of the zone on his first MLB pitch - typical.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Aug 28, 2023 21:14:17 GMT -5
Barraclough was obviously not brought up to shutdown anyone. He was brought up to eat innings in a mop up role. The pen was rested. This has nothing to do with Bloom. A GM shouldn't call up a pitcher he doesn't expect his manager to use. If you are calling up a pitcher only for "garbage innings", it means you've failed to build MLB depth. Rotating a replacement-level arm through that last spot in the bullpen, especially when you've got a few short-term issues to manage (Bernadino on the COVID IL, rotating Murphy out since he ate innings yesterday) is something every single organization does, including successful ones like the Dodgers and Rays. You just don't expect the manager to use that guy in a high-leverage situation.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Aug 28, 2023 21:05:58 GMT -5
I do not buy the "the guys are tired" excuse. If that was true, IL somebody and call up Walter or Jacques or Garza or Politi (they have J. Rodriguez as a 60-day IL candidate if they needed a 40-man spot). It was Cora trying to steal a few outs and having it blow up in his face. Defensible to have him start the inning with bad hitters coming. Pitching to Altuve, Bregman and Alvarez in high leverage spots was not defensible. And I am okay making him throw 100 pitches once we're down by a lot. Disagree with the first sentence. Barraclough's strength is that he can eat some innings. No reason to use him in a spot where he'd go three outs max. Frankly, there's no reason to pitch him in any medium- or high-leverage situation at all. I'm fine leaving him in to eat these innings, though.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Aug 28, 2023 20:59:06 GMT -5
They showed all the bullpen guys sitting next to each other several times during that sixth inning. Either the medical staff is phoning it in worse than Cora, or it's not COVID. Eh. If the entire bullpen was not there it would be just as bad. I mean. If cora wanted to throw a game there are less blatant ways of doing it. This game is totally out of character for him. I don't think he intentionally tried to throw the game. I think he has a poor grasp of pitcher leverage and is bad at managing a bullpen.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Aug 28, 2023 20:57:37 GMT -5
Still no one up in the pen btw. He’s going to ride Barraclough for 100+ while telling his starting hitters to go get ‘em. Literally bench the best hitters then. What the fuck are you even doing if you’re not trying to win the game that’s in front of you. Tone down the profanity.
|
|
|