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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 15, 2015 14:29:34 GMT -5
For the most part, it seems like this forum thinks most trades are overspends. Kimbrel returned a ton, Giles (guy with same drawbacks as Smith) returned a ton, Miller returned an insane amount... I think real life baseball values prospects/commodities slightly differently. There have been a number of other veteran-for-prospect trades this offseason that have been reasonably-priced. I'm thinking of the trades for Andrelton Simmons, Francisco Rodriguez, and Jed Lowrie. Or smaller-scale trades like Yunel Escobar, Adam Lind, Neil Walker, Brett Lawrie, Cameron Maybin, etc. Sure, but none of those guys are really top tier blue chip commodities like Kimbrel, Giles, etc., outside Simmons. And Simmons took the head off a (albeit bad) farm system and supplied them with an immediate replacement.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 15, 2015 13:58:50 GMT -5
For the most part, it seems like this forum thinks most trades are overspends.
Kimbrel returned a ton, Giles (guy with same drawbacks as Smith) returned a ton, Miller returned an insane amount...
I think real life baseball values prospects/commodities slightly differently.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 14, 2015 23:04:48 GMT -5
They got five pitchers. That's the exact opposite of security. Yeah and 2 of which have already shown they can pitch in the bigs, and one of those has the opportunity to pitch towards the top half of the rotation in the bigs. Far more secure than a package of a toolsy AA OF that may or may not develop against quality breaking stuff and a SS that has a pretty elevated K rate in A ball. I'd say there is more upside to the Red Sox package if Margot and Guerra pan out, but we've seen the kind of value that quality starting pitchers have on the market and Velasquez is basically already there if you believe in his results to date coupled with the stuff. Don't forget how bad Margot is against RHP
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 14, 2015 16:50:22 GMT -5
Sherman reports lots of teams scared of his elbow.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 14, 2015 16:44:14 GMT -5
Hmmm, the inevitable comparisons will come. Could have signed Cueto and Samardzija for around the same price as Price. I still prefer Price, but you know all the Boston writers will bring it up. Comparing Samardzija and Cueto spending half their time in AT&T Park to Price is a fool's errand. Also, given the last two years, Sox didn't have time to fart around with more half measures, no matter how promising the idea of likely bounce backs are.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 14, 2015 16:28:44 GMT -5
That was my pick for where he ends up. Should be real good in that ballpark.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 14, 2015 0:26:24 GMT -5
Obviously having a big payroll helps, but the difference between the Yankees and the Cardinals is how those teams use that payroll. Teams like the Cardinals focus on building their team through a core of homegrown stars supplemented with mid-level free agents and the occasional big splurge. No matter how big your payroll is, you can't build a playoff-caliber through free agents alone-- to get to the 45ish WAR you need to be a playoff contender at reasonable FA rates, that's a $300m+ payroll. Even if those free agents perform to their contracts in the first year or two, the nature of modern free agents is such that teams overpay in years rather than AAV, and having committed a substantial portion of your payroll to aging, declining players makes it difficult to "reload" with new free agents. I don't know who is saying to build a contender through free agency alone? Certainly not me. I'm just saying, I don't see these clearly defined ethos or philosophies between say the Yankees and the Cardinals. They're reacting to their market and the results of their drafts and picks. I don't think the Yankees shy away from building through the draft at all, they've just been in contention so much and drafted so poorly they can't really do it. I mean who have they traded away in the last 5 years that has done anything? Melancon? Farqhuar? Nuno? Solarte? Cervelli? Ehhh? They've traded away A LOT of absolute garbage, and have actually probably received far more value than any of those guys represent. It's not like they've punted away big stars that have gone on to be huge steals (Melancon maybe, though the yankees seem to churn out relievers anyway). Since 2000 the Yankees have 1508 wins and the Cardinals have 1464 wins. Did the Cardinals pay less for each win? Sure. Are the yankees currently in bad shape? Not really, they've followed the natural cyclical progression of trading for youth and are pointed towards a 125 million base payroll in 2017, aiming to selectively reload again in free agency in 2017 and hit 2018 and it's really deep market hard.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 13, 2015 18:33:40 GMT -5
Then the thinking doesn't track lol. If he's grading players relative to each other, and assigning values that gives their likelihoods of playing in the big leagues, then he's essentially saying he's basing this off having to have a set number of guys in the A category, a set number of guys in the B category, etc. Which is a poor assumption, because strength of talent varies so greatly year to year. The way I read it is that he know it's easy to give out a bunch of A grades because we tend to get excited about the best prospects. So he's very careful about giving out A's. At the end, he'll check to see if he overdid it, and maybe promote one or two A-'s. I agree that seems to be what he's thinking. It's essentially him grading on a mini-curve, but I guess I just don't get the point in that, since the inherit value of grading on a curve is to yield a determined distribution of grades within a set. And I don't entirely see why that's needed in this case. I could sort of understand if the talent he was grading was all AAA, and knocking on the door to the majors, and you're trying to align it with some sort of born out number that represents the average number of players graduating to the majors yearly, but the talent on the list is so varied in their distance from the major leagues that that doesn't really track either.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 13, 2015 18:26:07 GMT -5
I don't know that that's true. My understanding is that having Tommy John surgery is not a significant predictor of future injury and it doesn't (necessarily) mean you have bad mechanics or that there's something wrong with the way you pitch. Instead, it's generally an overuse injury, and the epidemic of TJ is caused by young pitchers throwing a lot more now (year-round travel leagues, etc.) and a lot harder than they used to. Fernandez does have some TJ warning signs (throws hard, throws a lot of sliders), so maybe he's a little riskier than the average pitcher, but I don't think the difference is huge. That's especially true since you're likely only getting him for three years (as opposed to a longer-term contract). I'd be real interested to have a guy like Andrews examine some of these players' (Harvey/Fernandez/etc.) mechanics and let us now what he thinks of them. He actually helped develop an app a while back to show kids how to warm up, how to limit pitch counts, and how to develop throwing mechanics that put less stress on the elbow. I believe there's a few things they end up recommend avoiding that Fernandez does, such as making the inverted L or W and and also showing the ball to 2nd base when they follow through that motion coming over the top. Of course it all depends on the pitcher and the tolerances in his own body, and TJ itself changes the biomechanics of the body (seeing as the repaired ligament is placed differently than the original), but it just seems like some of this stuff would be worth worrying about to really explore.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 13, 2015 18:00:15 GMT -5
It's hard for teams to have decade+ runs of success without any bad years, but there are teams who have had pretty long runs of success mostly fueled by young players. Other than the Cardinals, you could add the 2009-present Lincecum/Cain/Posey Giants, the 2007-13 Pedroia/Lester/Ellsbury Red Sox, the 2008-2013 Rays, etc. I'm merely just trying to examine the statement about sustainable success of this method compared to say a "yankees" or Dodgers method, and I'm not entirely sure it bears out. Sure a lot of those teams had great young cores, but a lot outside the Rays had huge payrolls. I guess I just don't see these things as changes in philosophy or ethos, but rather expected course changes due to the cyclical nature of the game and how winning/losing impacts the ability to build through the draft.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 13, 2015 16:41:11 GMT -5
Am I reading this wrong or is this sentence re: Devers absolutely idiotic? "You can make a Grade A case but I want to hold back on that until I see where he needs to slot on the Top 100 list." So he's arbitrarily jumping between an A and A- simply by his placement around unrelated other players on a top 100 list? Seems to me the evaluation should be solely on the player himself. If that was Sickels, it makes sense. He's pretty much the consensus guy, not a scout. Then the thinking doesn't track lol. If he's grading players relative to each other, and assigning values that gives their likelihoods of playing in the big leagues, then he's essentially saying he's basing this off having to have a set number of guys in the A category, a set number of guys in the B category, etc. Which is a poor assumption, because strength of talent varies so greatly year to year.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 13, 2015 16:36:24 GMT -5
Jmei - I brought up the cardinals as an acknowledgement of a team that has money and doesn't over spend not to support my argument. But even they sign large contracts but are smarter about it. In other words, they get good value on their contracts? I'm not opposed to giving out big contracts to players who deserve it-- I would have signed Heyward for $200m, for instance, and generally think the Price signing was fine. But there's almost no situation in which it makes sense to significantly overpay for a player. If you have a big enough payroll, you can win in the short-term despite having a bunch of overpaid players (or plundering your farm system)-- see, e.g., the Dodgers or Yankees. But you can't have sustainable success that way, as both those organizations are learning now (they're both transitioning to a more sustainable, youth/player-development-focused model). Question, you claim "a more sustainable, youth/player-development-focused model." What's an example of this? The cardinals? Is there another teams that's been the same consistently competitive team for the last 10-15 years?
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 13, 2015 16:23:39 GMT -5
Aside from a possible innings limit, is there any other reason to be worried? I don't think he's much riskier than any other young pitcher. See, this is what I don't understand. Tommy John surgery is needed because of stress put on the elbow by pitching. Normal people don't get this haha. Like you don't tear your UCL gardening. Some guys mechanics and bodies simply make them more prone to the injury. Is it always a direct link? No, but it can be. I don't see why someone would cover their ears and just think Jose Fernandez is going to be gravy going forward when there wasn't a huge amount of miles on that arm as it was. And I'm not saying it's super damning or anything, but it seems pretty obvious to me that it's a legitimate thing to worry about.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 13, 2015 16:19:38 GMT -5
Not entirely sure all those guys will start the year at Salem. Chavis largely blew in Greenville, Espinoza is super young, and Kopech punted half his season with a PED suspension.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 13, 2015 16:15:05 GMT -5
Am I reading this wrong or is this sentence re: Devers absolutely idiotic?
"You can make a Grade A case but I want to hold back on that until I see where he needs to slot on the Top 100 list."
So he's arbitrarily jumping between an A and A- simply by his placement around unrelated other players on a top 100 list? Seems to me the evaluation should be solely on the player himself.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 13, 2015 14:02:27 GMT -5
No one else is scared of Fernandez' health issues? Dude threw like 360 innings of professional ball before needing Tommy John. Came back, threw about 24 in the minors, then about 40 in the majors before arm problems again.
I don't know. I love love love love love the talent, I just don't see how you bet on this guy.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 13, 2015 13:52:27 GMT -5
Looks like dombrowski has closed shop for the winter without securing a #2 starter. And while the price would have been extremely high, I think getting one of these guys would have been huge for our 2016 season. To be continued. Larry, they do play baseball after the 2016 season. It would be foolish for DDo to get the #2 starter you want if it wrecks their team or their minor league system. No sense messing up 2017 and beyond looking to make the team look perfect in December. Why don't you wait and see if ERod becomes the #2 or if Buchholz can stay healthy enough to be a #2 when they really need him to be? I agree that the cost currently is prohibitive, and that I'd like to see what the current staff can do. However, there is a flip side to this. If this team flounders early, and Erod struggles, along with Porcello and Kelly, I doubt they'll wait around long before DD does something to right the ship. And at that time, it will NOT come cheap. And if it's Kelly that's struggling, you're looking at not having much ML talent to offer, and paying a huge price prospect wise. That being said, there's also a chance Vazquez, Marrero, Shaw/Travis could all increase their values and look more like depth pieces as well, easing some strain on a potential deal.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 12, 2015 14:30:14 GMT -5
I wonder if we could pry carter Capps from the Marlins? Mookie Betts, Moncada, and Benintendi, and Werner's private jet for Carter Capps
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 12, 2015 14:27:47 GMT -5
So the final piece in the Giles trade was Mark Appel, hope everyone feels a lot better about our trade with SD now. While Appel certainly has excellee, he still has a ton of potential They added Appel but took out Fisher according to Bowden Tweet. I would say at best it might increase the trade a little bit. A lot of people were high on Fisher. Fisher also lacks any sort of defensive profile doesn't he? Isn't he extremely similar to Dom Brown in terms of skillset?
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 12, 2015 13:57:22 GMT -5
Heres my way too out there trade proposal: Mia - Salazar, Devers, Kopech, Travis, Clv - Frazier, Bradley , Buchholz Cin - Owens, Chavis, Light Bos - Fernandez, B. Shaw It should be noted that I know we are giving up a lot of quantity. Alsoñ I know it is most likely not to happen, but I had fun trying. The sox are giving up too much, I know, I know. The thing is... Cin will want a lot for Frazier as he has two years left at like only 6 mil each. Plus, there are no other 3B options out there and he hits home runs. Clv wants a ton for a potential ace on the cheap with 5 years of control. Miami, we already know they want the entire north east for Fernandez. In all. We will be paying way too much to get Fernandez this year. I've said this a few times over the past few weeks... our best chance at Salazar or Carrasco will be to include a third team like Col or Cin... probably Col as Gonzalez has a higher salary and as such should cost a bit less to aquire. Honestly, I'd like to have Gonzalez, but if the Sox could get him and flip him into a #2, a good #2, we should do it, as always, in my opinion. Fernandez behind Price though.... What? Why would they Sox give up Buchholz, Owens, Kopech, Bradley Jr. Devers, Sam Travis, Chavis, Pat Light for Jose Fernandez and a reliever they don't need?
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 12, 2015 13:53:59 GMT -5
I would assume they'd like to get a few more years into the Hanley and Pablo and Porcello deals before adding Bogaert's inflated AAV into the luxury tax.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 12, 2015 1:48:24 GMT -5
The 15th pick to be exact. Trent Clark. .309/.424 with a 44:39 k/bb ratio and 25 stolen bags his first season. Thanks Michael!
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 12, 2015 1:31:42 GMT -5
Didn't Mets give up a pick for him?
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 11, 2015 17:00:47 GMT -5
I just don't see how or why Soler could be considered the centerpiece of a deal for a cost controlled elite pitcher. His defensive numbers haven't looked good, his strikeout rate remains a major concern, and he only posted a 96 wRC+ despite a .361 BABIP. I guess it's on power potential and some crazy numbers in the minors? At least it's a given that JBJ will put up elite defensive numbers and can potentially be a multiple WAR guy even with a bad bat. Many of the same things that IMO keep Soler from being the centerpiece type guy resonate with Baez as well. I just don't get it. Maybe it's all speculation and GM's aren't actually considering either of those guys as the main piece in a deal. If I'm a team with a cost controlled top starter and I'm talking with the Cubs, it must start with Schwarber I get what you're saying. Schwarber's no defensive stud either though, and both have very small track records. So yeah, it comes down to how a team projects them.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 11, 2015 16:49:08 GMT -5
Cecchini has sucked offensively the last two years and his defense is even worse. His only slightly comfortable defensive position (while still being far below average) is left field. And that's a position where if you're going to suck defensively, you want some offense out of.
Right now, Cecchini is nothing close to a major league player, and nothing you want to waste a 40man spot on. Could he turn it around if he stops searching for homers and stops being pull happy? Sure, but the Sox know he probably needs a change of surroundings.
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