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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 15, 2015 12:47:32 GMT -5
Omg... spelling. He is NOT as bad. This is a MAKE or break year.... That button to the right has an edit post option. Lol, thank you. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 15, 2015 11:54:41 GMT -5
Margot is a good prospect. I liked him a lot, but for anyone to think that he will mathematically be more valuable over the next six than Kimbrel will be over the next three is... difficult to gage and not true, in my humble opinion. I would think that Kimbrel will be WAY more valuable to the Sox than Margot would be. Kimbrel is a dominant closer. Margot, even if he is comparable to say Dexter Fowler, I'm not so sure he would be more valuable to the Sox. We needed a closer and there are not many consistently dominant relivers. We can get outfielders. Closers like Kimbrel are more valuable in my opinion. They are pretty rare.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 15, 2015 11:07:35 GMT -5
The deal is done. Kimbrel is our closer. The prospects now play for the Padres. We are better now and increased our chances of a world series appearance. Kimbrel is top five, maybe higher, at his position. Padres now have new, albeit promising, question marks in the minors, hoping at least one turns into a good player. Facts.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 15, 2015 10:58:15 GMT -5
Even if you're right, the correct response is not to just give in and sell low on your prospects. The right response is to hold onto them until you get a fair deal. The Cubs and the Mets are in similar circumstances, and neither of those teams have sold low on their prospects just because they also happen to have a surplus of talent. This was the best possible deal in a sense of direction of this team. That's what everyone isn't getting here. The Sox got arguably the best talent out there in a area of need. The Sox did sell high and got the best player for them and what they wanted to do. Of course the Sox overpaid. That isn't a detriment to Dave D. or the Sox. That's a detriment to how ridiculous the trade market has become. Imagine how worse a Carrasco deal would of been, never mind a Sale or Gray trade. Sorry people. You're not stealing Curt Schilling for 4-5 garbage pieces anymore. This IS where the market is set now and you got the best player at his position. Period. Couldn't agree more. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 15, 2015 10:50:35 GMT -5
We will know in about four years if these four prospects turn into anything more than an average player. Margot was ranked on our prospect list at #4, Guerra #6, Allen #13. Here is a quick list of past prospects and where they were ranked at one point or another: Lars Anderson, Middlebrooks, Casey Kelly and Kalish were all former #1's. Ranaudo, Barnes, Bowden were #2's. Cecchini, Doubront, Webster were #3's. Britton was at #4. DeLa Rosa, Stolmy Pimentel, Yamaico Navarro and Brentz were all #5's. So again, if we can get elite proven MLB talent for unproven prospects, within reason, we should do it. Especially when it fill a huge hole. This trade is no where near as bad as some make it out to be. I like it and think Kimbrel will be fine. Well now, Margot and Guerra are #1 and #3s. Maybe we can reverse the deal and come out much better. So in the end, we could trade a #4 and #6 for a #1 and #3. I'm sorry. I ranked those players to show that prospects are not a guarantee. So you can see how high some of these guys were ranked that didn't pan out. My point was that we should not, and don't seem to be anymore, holding our prospects too long. We need to sell high more often as most top ten prospects don't even pan out. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 14, 2015 17:04:38 GMT -5
Omg... spelling. He is NOT as bad. This is a MAKE or break year....
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 14, 2015 17:03:14 GMT -5
Keep Castillo and hope he turns it on. Trading him now would be selling low. He is as bad as some make him out to be. I feel this is a nake or break year for him. He still does not have a whole lot of at bats yet... this year we'll know for sure what he is.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 14, 2015 16:59:42 GMT -5
Sign Price or Grienke. Sign Sipp. Sign Bastardo. Sign Gordon. You'll pay? Absolutely |
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 14, 2015 14:44:05 GMT -5
Sign Price or Grienke. Sign Sipp. Sign Bastardo. Sign Gordon.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 14, 2015 13:53:30 GMT -5
This is my first time posting on this forum. I've never been tempted too, but this trade has really upset me. I think it's too much value for a closer. Especially a small closer who might break down. I don't understand why they needed to include Logan Ryan as well. I really hate DD now and obviously the Red Sox ownership has lost it's way. What a dumb hire for an organization that hasn't been the same since Theo left. It really is a sign for things to come on this team. Goodbye Moncada. Wow, talk about packing as many hot takes into one post as possible. Gotta give Dave Dombrowski credit though from trading a football player that he doesn't even have on his team, Logan Ryan, as part of a deal for an elite closer. Not many GMs can pull that off. Golf clap |
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 14, 2015 11:11:17 GMT -5
We will know in about four years if these four prospects turn into anything more than an average player. Margot was ranked on our prospect list at #4, Guerra #6, Allen #13. Here is a quick list of past prospects and where they were ranked at one point or another: Lars Anderson, Middlebrooks, Casey Kelly and Kalish were all former #1's. Ranaudo, Barnes, Bowden were #2's. Cecchini, Doubront, Webster were #3's. Britton was at #4. DeLa Rosa, Stolmy Pimentel, Yamaico Navarro and Brentz were all #5's. So again, if we can get elite proven MLB talent for unproven prospects, within reason, we should do it. Especially when it fill a huge hole. This trade is no where near as bad as some make it out to be. I like it and think Kimbrel will be fine. You do realize how meaningless that is right? The only guy in that list that was ever as a good a prospect as Margot was Anderson and even that is debatable. And Guerra is as good or better than most of them as well. No I don't. You say Anderson is the only one who may have been as good of a prospect? Kelly was ranked higher on this site than Anderson, no? My point was you never know how a prospect will turn out. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 14, 2015 10:36:41 GMT -5
I think what a lot of us forget is that a reliever is a reliever because somewhere along the line, he must've failed as a starter. Instead of trading for Kimbrel, would anybody have wanted to try Kelly in that role instead? He throws 99 as well and has a larger arsenal. I don't think we should move Kelly to the bullpen (just a thought experiment), but if he were moved there, I think we'd see a lot of success. We traded 4 prospects (who could've been used in other trades, at least) for someone we could've made ourselves. See Wade Davis. I think Kelly should be movedti the pen. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 14, 2015 10:35:19 GMT -5
We will know in about four years if these four prospects turn into anything more than an average player. Margot was ranked on our prospect list at #4, Guerra #6, Allen #13.
Here is a quick list of past prospects and where they were ranked at one point or another:
Lars Anderson, Middlebrooks, Casey Kelly and Kalish were all former #1's.
Ranaudo, Barnes, Bowden were #2's.
Cecchini, Doubront, Webster were #3's.
Britton was at #4.
DeLa Rosa, Stolmy Pimentel, Yamaico Navarro and Brentz were all #5's.
So again, if we can get elite proven MLB talent for unproven prospects, within reason, we should do it. Especially when it fill a huge hole. This trade is no where near as bad as some make it out to be. I like it and think Kimbrel will be fine.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 14, 2015 10:14:55 GMT -5
With our outfielder's in the bigs now, and Benny and Moncada not necessarily far away.... I don't value Margot as high as others. Losing Logan Allen hurts and Guerra(wish it could have been Dubon) a little less. Asuaje I saw as a poor man's RH Brock holt with more Ks. That being said it's obviously a huge haul with 15 pages of people saying the same thing. I like the trade though (apart from Logan Allen who is 18 and 4 to 7 years away at best. If it were MM, Asuaje and Guerra I'd be oo with it. As Guerra is a long ways off and his blocked even by the Marco Hernandez of the world. It's obvious they wanted a possible SS for the future as well as a possible ML ledty starter. Really, Margot I don't think after his bust out a couple years ago that I (and many others felt was a little flukish) So the way I look at it, Padres get 3 guys who might be above average ml players best case scenario barring Guerra slashing a .300/380/500 as well as Margot which I really don't see happening. Mean time we get the second best closer in baseball without diminished stuff and at a young age without losing any of the *real trade pieces* and keeping many of the c level chips (Merrero, Cechinni, Haley etc). I like the move with our flexibility in making a larger, blockbuster trade, and solidifying a BP almost in one swoop pending one more signing of a second tier lefty /specialist. I don't believe in hoarding prospects or hearing "you have the best farm system...etc" when we're in last. Many of our young guys have already made a significant impact (and we started winning!) And a couple more still will Win now, or next year. I like it Brock holt is LF. Oops Well said. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 14, 2015 10:12:46 GMT -5
We got Kimbrel! Those prospects are just that. I like the deal. I like that DD is fixing the pen, which had some worried about.... We improved our team for the next three years and filled one of our biggest holes, the pen. Those players may not even pan out. Why hold them for too long when we could get an elite closer? I wish we kept Allen, but I'm sure DD tried. This is what the price was and we mad the move. We are better now and for the next three years for it. Are we still better if Margot turns into a dynamic Major League outfielder on the Padres by September or next year, and Castillo doesn't hit well? Or if Guerra comes up for them, is an elite defender and bats reasonably well? And Allen reaches his ceiling in a few years? For three years of a relief pitcher. Dombrowski did not utilize our positional redundancies properly. I'm sure we all like having Kimbrel (I'm excited to have him) but as jmei and others have noted, it was bad negotiating. It had to have been. How can any of us say it was bad negotiating? I'm sure DD tried to include the least amount talent possible. Chapman was probably the same cost... we got three years of Kimbrel though. I don't think for a second that Guerra was anything close to a sure bet. Allen even less so. Margot will probably make the bigs, but I refuse to assume he will be great. Kimbrel is a great closer. I think maybe I hold good reliable BP arms to a higher scale than others.... |
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 14, 2015 9:59:41 GMT -5
I'm totally fine with this deal... I'm not sure any of Margot, Allen or Guerra will become anything as useful as Kimbrel. They may.... I just don't think we should hold onto so many prospects any more. I used to want us to hold them all to see which ones were going to be good, but when you do that 70% of them completely lose their value and we get a bag of balls for them. I would hold Moncada, Benentendi and Espinoza and trade the rest, not all, but be willing to include the rest for top major league talent... proven talent. I think we all agree they traded the right prospects. Its not that we traded prospects that has people so mad its the return we got for those prospects. Keith Law for example rates Margot and Guerra as both top 50 prospects. Two top 50 or even heck two top 100 prospects is way too much for a closer, even one as good as Kimbrel! I want to add that I wanted the team to trade for Kimbrel, just not at this cost. As other have pointed out if all of these guys bust it still doesn't mean this was a good trade. You have to wonder what other players you could have traded this package for. I look at the Cole Hamels trade I think we gave up just as much for Kimbrel as Texas did to get Hamels, that's not good.
BTW Saying you would trade everyone but Moncada, Bennentendi and Espinoza is crazy talk. If over the next 4 years those are the only prospects we had to our major league team we will be in really bad shape.
I said I'd be willing to trade all but those three. Not trade them all away, lol. Big difference. I would not completely deplete our farm, but I would definitely be willing to include any one but those three in a specific deal. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 14, 2015 9:54:18 GMT -5
I'd like the Sox to get Sipp. If we can get two lefties fine, but Sipp seems like the best FA.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 14, 2015 9:29:47 GMT -5
We got Kimbrel! Those prospects are just that. I like the deal. I like that DD is fixing the pen, which had some worried about.... We improved our team for the next three years and filled one of our biggest holes, the pen. Those players may not even pan out. Why hold them for too long when we could get an elite closer? I wish we kept Allen, but I'm sure DD tried. This is what the price was and we mad the move. We are better now and for the next three years for it.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 14, 2015 9:06:58 GMT -5
I'm totally fine with this deal... I'm not sure any of Margot, Allen or Guerra will become anything as useful as Kimbrel. They may.... I just don't think we should hold onto so many prospects any more. I used to want us to hold them all to see which ones were going to be good, but when you do that 70% of them completely lose their value and we get a bag of balls for them. I would hold Moncada, Benentendi and Espinoza and trade the rest, not all, but be willing to include the rest for top major league talent... proven talent.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 14, 2015 7:52:28 GMT -5
Prospects are 100% valuable, which is why teams are willing to take them for good players.... the team sending them and getting them are taking a chance. I'm not saying we should give up all our young talent, but in order to get a top starter, closer or good hitter we need to give up good prospects. Sometimes teams hold them too long and then get nothing at all for them. Ranaudo, Webster, DeLaRosa, Cecchini, Middlebrooks, Brentz, Lavarnway,Kalish, Lars Anderson, etc. The guys we sent packing may or may not pan out... we know the track record of Kimbrel. We traded Rizzo and two other very good prospects (Kelly and Fuentes) for Gonzalez. Rizzo panned out, the other two not so much. At the time we would all make that trade again. Gonzalez was a great hitter in his prime that can play good 1B too. No one knew Rizzo would turn into what he is now. Kelly was our #1 prospect at the time, Rizzo was #3. We included Rizzo because we were getting one of MLB's best 1B in their prime. That is how trades work out.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 13, 2015 22:08:58 GMT -5
Can we trade for Matt Harvey? I want him Sale or Grey. I like Sale and Harvey better though. To get Sale we would need to include Swihart, so I will look at Harvey. The Mets need players on the big league roster... 2B and CF. What if we offer Holt and Bradley to fill those spots? I know that is not nearly enough for a mid 20's ace pitcher w three years of control. What if,we add Miley to replace him in the rotation? Thats three big league players, on the cheap, who will start for them. I know it is still not going to cut it. What if we add a replacement for Wright? Rafael Devers is our #2 prospect and will be a huge get, hes not Betts, but a very good looking player.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 13, 2015 21:54:37 GMT -5
Yeah... Rizzo, but the other two not so much... Kelly was supposed to be a top pitcher... at least he made it to the bigs, that Center Fielder didn't even make it. They were all three top 6-7 prospects. Prospects are just not a sure thing. Margot may or may not be good... same w Guerra n Logan.
We got Kimbrel... gave up a lot, but Kimbrel is one of the best closers... those four prospects? Maybe one pans out... more maybe, who knows. I'm fine with the deal.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 13, 2015 21:47:54 GMT -5
do you remember the three guys we traded for Adrian Gonzalez??? Yeah, I remember that guy who finished in the top 10 in NL MVP voting last year and should finish top 5 this year. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 13, 2015 16:27:34 GMT -5
Chapman is the best closer in my opinion... there are a few others, I know, but Chapman is #1 in my mind. If we get him and put Uehara in the 8th that significantly improves the pen and in turn out team. One move. That said, I think we would wants an extension in place before the deal is finalized... at least an understanding of an agreement. Margot straight up? Yes. Margot is NOT a sure thing at all.... do you remember the three guys we traded for Adrian Gonzalez???
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 13, 2015 16:15:24 GMT -5
Again, I really like Swihart. I think he is rare in what he brings, but if it takes him to get Sale we have to do that. Someone mentioned Moncada... I would not include him along with Sale... maybe not at all. I feel Sale is a top pitcher, true ace and in order to get a young team friendly contract on an ace pitcher, we will need to give up talent. Thats just how it works. If anyone thinks we are getting an ace by trading the likes of Hanley Ramirez, Marrero, Kelly, Johnson, Ball, Shaw, Hanigan, Castillo or Miley are kidding themselves. Swihart, Devers, Margot and to a lesser degree Guerra, Travis and Kopech will need to be included... maybe, likely two of these six.
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