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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 3, 2019 19:54:07 GMT -5
What a loser Porcello is. Right when you need him most. This is a bunch of crap to talk like this about your own players. It's not like he's a fat slob and doesn't work hard. When a player performs like crap. Expect brushback. That's my advice to you.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 3, 2019 19:53:10 GMT -5
LOL what a effort by Porcello in the middle of a wild card race. Get rid of this bum.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 3, 2019 19:12:13 GMT -5
What a loser Porcello is. Right when you need him most.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 3, 2019 19:02:54 GMT -5
Get this bum off the mound.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 3, 2019 18:52:01 GMT -5
30 pitch first inning? Yikes Porcello through 2 innings and 1 run with 47 pitches. Porcello is a joke this year.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 3, 2019 14:23:56 GMT -5
www.google.com/amp/s/www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25461805/arizona-diamondbacks-trade-paul-goldschmidt-st-louis-cardinals%3fplatform=ampGoldsmidt was making 14.5 million before the deal and was 31. Goldsmidt was worth 5.9 bWAR and 5.4 bWAR the two years leading up to his trade and only played first base. Luke Weaver is worth 1.4 bWAR this year. Carson Kelly is worth 2 bWAR this year. Andy Young had a 140 wRC+ in AA and 129 wRC+ in AAA. Plus a really good draft pick. Mookie Betts is worth 10.9 and 5.5 bWAR the two seasons leading up to this off-season. This value doesn't even include the fact that he can play CF. His value goes up even more when that happens. Basically, Mookie is worth the freight and money in a trade package. Anthony Rendon and Gerrit Cole are the only two players worth over 5 WAR this off-season in free agency. We can agree that they are worse players, or hope to. Mookie is worth more of a investment than those players. If money is a small issue, the Sox can throw in money for next year to get a larger package. I disagree that Mookie isn't worth a lot because of the money. I think you can rob the top 3 prospects of most clubs farm systems with even one year of Mookie. These players don't hit the market often. You're not trading Mookie if you don't get that type of deal. Not trying to give him away here. 4) Finally... like, what would be your vision for the Red Sox if you were GM? If it's not worth going for it in 2020 because Sale is unreliable - well, that's not a situation that'll get any better for the next 4 years of his contract after that. Price isn't getting any younger either. In what year do they project to have a better shot than in 2020? [/div][/quote]I would trade away JBJ and Betts off the roster and replace them with 2 young outfield prospects ready to play now and a starting pitching prospect ready play now. I would then sign Nick Castellanos for 4 or 5 years to play first base mostly (has infield experience before). Give him all spring training to learn the position. Lessen the blow on Mookie's offense. Resign JDM for the DH position. Fill out the rest of the roster with maybe a Calhoon as a 4th outfielder type. Sign one or 2 relievers and call it a off-season. Give yourself a new 3 year window. Not bank on one Mookie Betts year, with the hope to resign. Especially given the status of the rotation right now.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 3, 2019 14:16:33 GMT -5
www.google.com/amp/s/www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25461805/arizona-diamondbacks-trade-paul-goldschmidt-st-louis-cardinals%3fplatform=ampGoldsmidt was making 14.5 million before the deal and was 31. Goldsmidt was worth 5.9 bWAR and 5.4 bWAR the two years leading up to his trade and only played first base. Luke Weaver is worth 1.4 bWAR this year. Carson Kelly is worth 2 bWAR this year. Andy Young had a 140 wRC+ in AA and 129 wRC+ in AAA. Plus a really good draft pick. Mookie Betts is worth 10.9 and 5.5 bWAR the two seasons leading up to this off-season. This value doesn't even include the fact that he can play CF. His value goes up even more when that happens. Basically, Mookie is worth the freight and money in a trade package. Anthony Rendon and Gerrit Cole are the only two players worth over 5 WAR this off-season in free agency. We can agree that they are worse players, or hope to. Mookie is worth more of a investment than those players. If money is a small issue, the Sox can throw in money for next year to get a larger package. I disagree that Mookie isn't worth a lot because of the money. I think you can rob the top 3 prospects of most clubs farm systems with even one year of Mookie. These players don't hit the market often. You're not trading Mookie if you don't get that type of deal. Not trying to give him away here. I fully agree most posters on here are greatly undervaluing Betts trade value, mainly because they want to keep him and don't want to even think about him leaving. I think you picked the perfect trade, at minimum it seems crazy a Goldschmidt type trade isn't available. Now you can debate what we should do and if that's is enough all day long. It's risky, we are using hindsight with that trade. Yet it was a top 50 guy at a very premium position, a former top 100 major league ready starter, another prospect and a good draft pick. Given the difference in age, quality of the player and position I don't see how a case can be made that you get less. In fact you should get a lot more. The one season of Betts your trading for is likely to have been projected to be worth close to double the bwar. The Red Sox can simple pay down Betts salary if that means maximizing returns. Crazy trades that make no sense long-term happen all the time in Baseball. Only takes one owner that wants to win right now for them to happen. With that being said, do you really think most teams give up their top three prospects for one year of Betts? Most posters are overblowing how much Betts value will be effected, yet you are going full on other direction no? I don't think you make the trade unless you're overpaid Umass. Like the Sox are going to listen on Mookie Betts is the consensus, not willing to trade. Big difference. Yeah there's a million things you can do for a Mookie package. You can- -Add money to increase value -Add a Workman to get a even better package -You can include a 72 hour negotiating window if the other team is ready to give Betts 350 million right now. Yeah, people don't think Mookie is that valuable because they've grown attached. It's simply not the case. A MVP CF? That's one of the main reasons Trout is so valuable and is a every year MVP.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 3, 2019 8:00:14 GMT -5
The thing that the 'trade Mookie' takes seem to not be accounting for (despite ericvman mentioning it in the original post) is that he gets paid with a large amount of American dollars. So on the one hand, as eric said, his trade value is not that high - what are you really expecting a team to give up for one year of Betts when he's already making $20m+? It's not like you're going to get a sure-fire can't-lose projected all-star for that. And on the other hand, if they keep Betts and don't re-sign him, that's $20m+ they have to play with after 2020. You could at least find an acceptable replacement for that much money, no? In other words, they're not "getting nothing" if he leaves in free agency; they're getting $20m+ of cap space to work with. Both of these factors shrink the margin between the value of trading him now vs. the cost of keeping him and letting him walk in a year. And for this relatively small margin, you'd punt away a full year of Betts in a season where the Red Sox project to be very good? www.google.com/amp/s/www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25461805/arizona-diamondbacks-trade-paul-goldschmidt-st-louis-cardinals%3fplatform=ampGoldsmidt was making 14.5 million before the deal and was 31. Goldsmidt was worth 5.9 bWAR and 5.4 bWAR the two years leading up to his trade and only played first base. Luke Weaver is worth 1.4 bWAR this year. Carson Kelly is worth 2 bWAR this year. Andy Young had a 140 wRC+ in AA and 129 wRC+ in AAA. Plus a really good draft pick. Mookie Betts is worth 10.9 and 5.5 bWAR the two seasons leading up to this off-season. This value doesn't even include the fact that he can play CF. His value goes up even more when that happens. Basically, Mookie is worth the freight and money in a trade package. Anthony Rendon and Gerrit Cole are the only two players worth over 5 WAR this off-season in free agency. We can agree that they are worse players, or hope to. Mookie is worth more of a investment than those players. If money is a small issue, the Sox can throw in money for next year to get a larger package. I disagree that Mookie isn't worth a lot because of the money. I think you can rob the top 3 prospects of most clubs farm systems with even one year of Mookie. These players don't hit the market often. You're not trading Mookie if you don't get that type of deal. Not trying to give him away here.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 3, 2019 7:24:09 GMT -5
Fun fact-
Marco Hernandez has 0.7 bWAR in 89 plate appearances.
Brock Holt has 1.4 bWAR in 220 plate appearances.
One is going to free agency. One is not.
CJ Catham just got promoted to AAA also. Spend money elsewhere.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 3, 2019 7:18:47 GMT -5
Underated aspect of why the Sox aren't very good this year-
The Sox have spent roughly 19 million on the bench this year and have a total value of-
-1.2 bWAR value between 7 different players. 3 of these players are on minimum level deals in Marco Hernandez, Travis, and Lin.
Please stop spending a lot money on bench players. You just set your money on fire there.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 3, 2019 0:48:40 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 3, 2019 0:47:29 GMT -5
Mata relieving to keep the innings down.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 2, 2019 23:33:40 GMT -5
I'm not even advocating for blowing it up either.
I'm advocating for trading 2 expensive players with no team control left because of the question marks in 2020.
I would love to give Castellanos a 4 year deal and give him a first base glove/make him your backup 5th outfielder. That would lessen the blow on a Mookie Betts trade. Resign JDM too, and make him your full-time DH.
Two cost controlled outfielders sounds like a good idea beyond 2020 in a trade for Mookie. Mata should be ready by then. My idea is a true reset. You're still a competitive team if you do this, even in 2020, if all breaks right (which I wouldn't bank on with the control of more players in my scenario).
There's 10 different ways to skin a cat (or so I'm told). Get creative. Reduce the long term risk. Don't put yourself in a one year window. Yuck.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 2, 2019 23:06:06 GMT -5
This could be true if you could guarentee me a year out of Chris Sale next year, you know, the Sox best pitcher.
At this point, it's a hope. I'm not going all in and keeping Betts around in a year where you *hope* to have your best pitcher around. Without Sale, you're as much of a contender as you are this year (as in not much of a contender). You trade Mookie Betts for more controllable great young talent next year and bite the bullet for 2020. Still, you're banking on him giving him solid production if you keep Betts. Not to mention the rotation questions beyond him. Eovaldi always being a question. Price should be okay, but nothing given there. Porcello gone and that's no major loss, based on what's been given this year. Eduardo having maybe his first full major league season ever this year. The whole rotation is a major question frankly and your only viable depth right now in 2020 is a 20 year old pitcher in AA named Mata. I'm not risking only one year of Betts with a rotation that's currently in the state it's in right now. Add- We are already talking about 2020 because of this pitching staff right now as a whole. The Sox already have the number one offense in baseball and they're already out of it basically, baring a miracle. Sale, who had averaged 5.6 WAR per year, gave us 2.2 WAR this year, and the Sox have still been a 100 talent-win team after the slow start.
Rick Porcello has alternated good and bad years for six years now. In 2014-2015 he averaged 2.2 WAR per year. In 2016-2017 he average 2.2 WAR per year. In 2018 and 2019 he's fallen off dramatically and projects to only average 2.1 WAR.
So the "no great loss" was exactly the contribution from Sale whose absence you think is both likely, and which would warrant punting the season.
You talk as if every MLB pitcher isn't a question mark. It's absolutely true that for all their extraordinary talent, not one of Sale, Price, Eovaldi, or E-Rod have been consistently healthy and/or have pitched up to their potential. Note that we got 100 wins worth of talent with essentially nothing from Eovaldi, and with Porcello having one of his down years; they've combined for 0.8 WAR. This roster is insanely talented now. Your attitude is, well, we can't be certain that everyone will be as good as we reasonably expect, so let's blow it up!
My attitude is that the question of the health of the rotation is the issue, and the most important issue that no one can't derive from. Not performance. I'm not playing Russian roulette on this rotation and risking everything for one year. Chris Sale's medium projection shouldn't be 0 wins next year, but it *could* be with the questions of the elbow. Eovaldi is always hurt. Price is coming off a injury right now and is currently topping out at 90 mph again. Porcello is gone. You don't have a 5th starter. Mata is your only pitching depth at the moment. Hello, hello!! Thanks for blocking me, I'll agree to disagree from here because you don't see it from my side.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 2, 2019 20:46:46 GMT -5
The one last thing I'll say before this becomes a long withstanding argument on the board is that if the Sox screw up this Mookie Betts decision, you're talking potentially 5 years where your team is set back from this decision. Not just one year. Instead of recouping value for Betts, you kept him and let him go for a fourth round pick. 4th round!!! I don't agree with the premise that the Sox are instant contenders based on the question marks in the 2020 rotation. I would rather play the safe route instead of a presumed "home town discount" when Mookie Betts has shown ZERO indication of taking to this point. In fact, he's saying the opposite and saying he sees his value being set in free agency. Okay, but what value are you going to get? It's not obvious that you can trade him for anyone that will give you 8 WAR for a career much less in a single season. Not at his anticipated arb salary and stated desire to go to free agency. That is the 100 million dollar question and a conversation you'd love to be a fly on the wall for. A little complicated because of the free agency proposition, but there's two teams that come to mind when you're talking about 2 teams wanting to win now and could pull the trigger imo- The Astros. Build a trade package around Kyle Tucker, who seems like a sure bet to be a MLB regular someday real soon. The Braves. Their top 3 prospects seem like okay bets to become everyday players soon in Ian Anderson, Cristian Pache, and Drew Waters. The one thing you can also do is add a Workman on top of the package to get more value out of a deal for a team looking to win now. Lots of options you can go there in the trade route. The simple answer is I'm arm chairing this ideas out loud. I would have no idea what will be offered, but I know a team could offer a lot for even one year of a MVP calibre player like Mookie, because he can provide the value for only one year.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 2, 2019 19:37:39 GMT -5
Few tidbits that are related and not related that belong somewhere, so I'll put it here-
-The Sox have been putting Mookie Betts a little more often in CF this past week. I don't know if this is to showcase Mookie in the off-season as a potential CF (increasing his value) or because they don't believe in JBJ against LHP anymore, or a little but of both.
One thing I will say is that Mookie showed that he easily has the skills to be a top 10 defensive CF in MLB tomorrow if he wanted. He looked really good out there still.
-Price's 10/5 rights go into affect after the 2020 season. The latest the Sox can trade him is at the 2020 deadline without him controlling his destiny of where he wants to play.
-Sale's 10/5 rights go into affect after 2021.
-Porcello's 10/5 rights to into affect immediately if the Sox resign him this off-season. So anybody who's thinking he should get a pillow contract here and if things don't work out, you trade him. That isn't happening. He controls where he goes if he resigns with the Sox past this year. Yet another good reason to let him walk.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 2, 2019 18:26:14 GMT -5
The one last thing I'll say before this becomes a long withstanding argument on the board is that if the Sox screw up this Mookie Betts decision, you're talking potentially 5 years where your team is set back from this decision. Not just one year.
Instead of recouping value for Betts, you kept him and let him go for a fourth round pick. 4th round!!!
I don't agree with the premise that the Sox are instant contenders based on the question marks in the 2020 rotation. I would rather play the safe route instead of a presumed "home town discount" when Mookie Betts has shown ZERO indication of taking to this point. In fact, he's saying the opposite and saying he sees his value being set in free agency.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 2, 2019 17:38:43 GMT -5
Still, you're banking on him giving him solid production if you keep Betts. Not to mention the rotation questions beyond him. Eovaldi always being a question. Price should be okay, but nothing given there. Porcello gone and that's no major loss, based on what's been given this year. Eduardo having maybe his first full major league season ever this year. The whole rotation is a major question frankly and your only viable depth right now in 2020 is a 20 year old pitcher in AA named Mata. I'm not risking only one year of Betts with a rotation that's currently in the state it's in right now. Add- We are already talking about 2020 because of this pitching staff right now as a whole. The Sox already have the number one offense in baseball and they're already out of it basically, baring a miracle. With that attitude, may as well go for a total rebuild. That's kind of insane. What we're counting on is a return to normalcy for Price, Sale and Eovaldi, ya know like we saw for stretches in 2018. We won the WS without the best Sale. What you're counting on is for the entire staff to suck sh*t like they did this year to make your argument. And if you always think that's going to happen, they may as well never try to win. Sale gave you over 5 wins in value in 2018. You have to make it there first. Ths state of the rotation is awful right now with a questionable Sale moving forward and with Eovaldi. It is what it is. You're not going full rebuild, but if you want to reset and then gain valuable controle over young players, trading Mookie Betts and JBJ is the easiest answer while doing all of this. You're shedding 35 million dollars right there by doing both.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 2, 2019 16:09:12 GMT -5
This could be true if you could guarentee me a year out of Chris Sale next year, you know, the Sox best pitcher. At this point, it's a hope. I'm not going all in and keeping Betts around in a year where you *hope* to have your best pitcher around. Without Sale, you're as much of a contender as you are this year (as in not much of a contender). You trade Mookie Betts for more controllable great young talent next year and bite the bullet for 2020. I'm not the most optimistic guy when it comes to Sale's health, but I don't think 0 WAR is a reasonable median projection for him next year... Still, you're banking on him giving him solid production if you keep Betts. Not to mention the rotation questions beyond him. Eovaldi always being a question. Price should be okay, but nothing given there. Porcello gone and that's no major loss, based on what's been given this year. Eduardo having maybe his first full major league season ever this year. The whole rotation is a major question frankly and your only viable depth right now in 2020 is a 20 year old pitcher in AA named Mata. I'm not risking only one year of Betts with a rotation that's currently in the state it's in right now. Add- We are already talking about 2020 because of this pitching staff right now as a whole. The Sox already have the number one offense in baseball and they're already out of it basically, baring a miracle.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 2, 2019 15:32:03 GMT -5
(There's already talk about this in random other threads, of course. That's inefficient!)
A discussion of the 2020 roster has to begin with an accurate sense of how good the current roster is Trading Mookie Betts.
It's obviously an insanely terrible idea. A guy is great as Mookie is most valuable to a team that has an excellent shot at winning the WS with him, and an excellent shot of missing the playoffs entirely without him. That describes us. Perfectly. It perhaps describes us better than anyone, given the division we play in. How can you win the trade if he's more valuable to us than the other team? The best NL team that could really use a CF is the Mets, and they're an 86-win slash-line team; they're not an elite team with him.
This could be true if you could guarentee me a year out of Chris Sale next year, you know, the Sox best pitcher. At this point, it's a hope. I'm not going all in and keeping Betts around in a year where you *hope* to have your best pitcher around. Without Sale, you're as much of a contender as you are this year (as in not much of a contender). You trade Mookie Betts for more controllable great young talent next year and bite the bullet for 2020.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 1, 2019 19:49:59 GMT -5
Great-
Wonderful-
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 1, 2019 18:32:57 GMT -5
You'd be 4 games back if it wasn't for yesterday. Ugh.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 1, 2019 18:16:58 GMT -5
Porcello will get a decent contract (10 plus million) for anyone believing in his career track record.
Khechul sat out half the year and still got 12 million.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 1, 2019 18:05:01 GMT -5
Matt Barnes turn to stink.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 1, 2019 16:53:16 GMT -5
it doesn't matter that our starters don't pitch much. Bullpen games are the all the rage. Just look at Tampa Bays record. You really don't want batters to see pitchers more than once anyway. Bullpen games....they way of the future. Exactly Jerry. The whole league is a bullpen game now. If that's the way it's headed, have a strong bullpen then.
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