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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 18:28:46 GMT -5
Bumgardner only makes sense if you're dealing Rick Porcello to the Giants in return. It would save huge savings on payroll and AAV. It would protect you from the third tax threshold, and it could open the Sox up to make other moves. I don't think this scenario is very likely however, and I wouldn't give up that much go get Bumgardner over Porcello.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 17:59:17 GMT -5
Still a great series in general. Price had one tough inning and that cost you a game. You're still a contender at the moment, so all is well for now.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 17:21:51 GMT -5
Then, why not have both? Make Darwinzon unavailable in trade talks. I doubt they would get Giles without including either Mata or Darwinzon. Having a hard time finding a comparable RP trade if anyone has ideas though. Maybe you could get something done with Dalbec and one of the Lowell guys. I guess they might like Ward though perhaps? Yeah, it's got to be Dalbec (plus more) that's going out the door I'm thinking. He's the only expendable piece you have right now, and Dave Dombrowski loves dealing excess expendable pieces as we've learned.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 17:09:06 GMT -5
You could do that by trading for Ken Giles, who has control through 2020. There's only 3-4 major league ready prospects that could be ready by 2020 in Mata, Dalbec, Houck, and maybe Feltman. Darwinzon will be graduated by then. The Sox talent in the farm system is in the lower levels of the system, for the most part. Not a lot of major league ready talent available there. Hot take: Darwinzon Hernandez will be a better MLB reliever in 2020 than Ken Giles. Then, why not have both? Make Darwinzon unavailable in trade talks.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 17:04:45 GMT -5
You could do that by trading for Ken Giles, who has control through 2020. There's only 3-4 major league ready prospects that could be ready by 2020 in Mata, Dalbec, Houck, and maybe Feltman. Darwinzon will be graduated by then. Trading valuable assets for relievers is mal practice. Period. If say a Will Smith is available for a package headlined by a Fitzgerald or a Granberg then sure why not. But you don't acquire relievers via major trades! you convert your hard throwing AA starting pitcher with control problems to the bullpen ( Betances, Diaz, Darwinson etc) You pick a minor Leagues journeyman and you tinker with his arm slot, move him to the other side of the rubber, change his grip...stuff like that. Money and premium prospects should never be allocated to acquire relievers because of how small the sample sizes are and how random a pitching performance can be. Brandon Workman wasn't even a sure bet to make the 25-men roster this ST and now he's one of the best relievers in MLB on the other hand the Mets spent a serious amount of prospects capital to acquire Diaz and spent money to sign Familia and look where they are at the end. Give me the Josh Taylors, the Darwinzons, the Houcks all day baby. How is trying to win malpractice? Go look at the Brad Hand trade to Celeveland and tell me that's a bad move with a straight face. You can acquire good arms via trades and trading assets at the time!! It happens!!
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 15:46:27 GMT -5
If only the world was built like a poker tournament where you can go all in and not have any repricutions. You stand in the middle in sports, you go no where. Mediocrity is worse than losing, because losing gets you closer to winning with the draft orders being what they are. This is even more true in baseball, where if you spend less money, you get more draft picks. A high spending team like the Boston Red Sox needs to pick a direction to win or not win. It's the way the CBA is set up nowadays. Okay, fine. I'm living on the edge, throwing caution to the wind. I'm on the back of my hog, the wind is whipping through my hair. I'm going all in on 2020. Which means I don't want to trade Betts, and also want to hold on to prospects that could either contribute to the team next year or could be traded to help that team. You could do that by trading for Ken Giles, who has control through 2020. There's only 3-4 major league ready prospects that could be ready by 2020 in Mata, Dalbec, Houck, and maybe Feltman. Darwinzon will be graduated by then. The Sox talent in the farm system is in the lower levels of the system, for the most part. Not a lot of major league ready talent available there.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 15:19:55 GMT -5
Damn. I wanted a sweep. Meatloaf was wrong !!! As long as the meatloaf doesn't start barking back at you 9 hours later, you should be good Jerry. Lol.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 15:10:39 GMT -5
My larger point here is that it's not a very good analogy. I agree. Poker is nothing like baseball and I don't even know why it was brought up in the first place.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 15:10:00 GMT -5
So now that we've determined that managing a baseball team is exactly like playing poker and the only way to play poker is to go all in, I guess that only pedrofan knows what to do. However the cool thing about poker tournaments is that there's always another one next week where you get your chips back, unlike in baseball where you'll forever be playing with a short stack if you play that way. If only the world was built like a poker tournament where you can go all in and not have any repricutions. You stand in the middle in sports, you go no where. Mediocrity is worse than losing, because losing gets you closer to winning with the draft orders being what they are. This is even more true in baseball, where if you spend less money, you get more draft picks. A high spending team like the Boston Red Sox needs to pick a direction to win or not win. It's the way the CBA is set up nowadays.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 14:57:36 GMT -5
Then how is a poker competition ever decided by a eventual winner? It is by definition impossible for the chip leader to go all in. That's why I said "unless you're ahead the whole time like the 2018 Red Sox."
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 14:51:57 GMT -5
At some point, you have to go all in poker, especially if you're in a competition. I mean, this isn't even true in a lot of poker games. Then how is a poker competition ever decided by a eventual winner?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 14:44:29 GMT -5
In THE MOST IMPORTANT GAME of the season, yes. There's only one way to do it. The most important game of the season was @tb on July 23rd? Wait till you find out who they were playing July 24th! You're fighting to not be sellers at the trade deadline. If you lost this series, you would have been right there.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 14:34:05 GMT -5
Yeah. The Sox won the series because of Cora's decisions yesterday. Right. There's only one way to manage the 9th inning with a 3 run lead. And that's by giving up 2 runs by leaving Workman in to pitch 44 pitches. It's as if you're determined to be right about trading the farm for relief pitchers rather than letting Taylor and Darwinzon ease into higher leverage. And you're going to double, triple, quadruple, quintuple, etc. down on the arguing about it. In THE MOST IMPORTANT GAME of the season, yes. There's only one way to do it.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 14:27:52 GMT -5
Yeah. The Sox won the series because of Cora's decisions yesterday.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 14:25:18 GMT -5
Yeah yesterday. See how you're behind now, and you weren't yesterday? Yeah, and the leverage index for Taylor was 1.8 when he entered today's game. It was 0.72 to start the 9th with a 3 run lead. Are you arguing with math? I'm arguing where you see where one game you were ahead and one game where you behind. One situation is different regardless of the "LI."
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 14:20:50 GMT -5
Not in the most important game of the season. Yesterday? Taylor just pitched the 8th in higher leverage. 1.80 vs. 0.72. Yeah yesterday. See how you're behind now, and you weren't yesterday?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 14:17:22 GMT -5
I don't blame Alex Cora one bit for not putting rookies into big spots. I have no problem with Cora leaving out a guy like Taylor out of high leverage situations. Low to medium leverage in the 5-7 innings is a perfect role for a guy like Taylor right now as a rookie. Brasier is going to be in Pawtucket until September because his luck wore off from last year. Cora is generally going to trust the guys who have more experience. This is why he kept going back to Nunez and kept going there until he was gone. Taylor and Darwinzon are going to have to absolutely shove in the roles they are given until they get their chance in bigger opportunities, and they can't mess up like with what Taylor did on July 17th. The only way I can see Darwinzon and Taylor getting into big situations like last night is if there are no other options available. A 3 run lead in the 9th with the bases empty is low leverage. Not in the most important game of the season.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 14:15:50 GMT -5
I think it'll be for Ken Giles. It'll definitely be relief. The Jays would need to throw in 1 million to 1.5 million dollars to make it work for the Sox to stay under the last luxury tax threshold, if the math is correct. I think Dalbec is probably the most likeliest candidate. I would do it, it might hurt by 2021, but you got to do it. Problem with this message board is sometimes people can be wishy washy with the direction they want to see the team go with. Like for me it was either one direction or the other. If they were going to sell, then listen on guys like even Mookie Betts. If you're competing, then don't be afraid to get the last piece and trade top prospects to get that last relief piece. Many people want to see the Sox keep Mookie and compete, while not trading top prospects for anything impactful. That makes no sense to me. It's not just one poster, it's many posters on here that think like this.
Either max out this window to win, or reset. That's where you have to go with the luxury tax rules, and how small market teams have a edge in the new CBA, with all the extra competitive balance picks and whatnot. I believe it's been pointed out about a hundred times that the 2020 season is a thing that's going to happen, and if you trade Mookie you make the team worse in 2020 with no clear way to make up for the loss. Meanwhile the farm system is weak and the Sox are not in a really great position this season, so further weakening the farm for a very marginal upgrade this season is not a great bet. Obviously you disagree here, but these aren't especially complicated thoughts. Like, do you play poker? Do you either fold or go all in on every hand? Sometimes neither of those are the best option. So there. 101 times. At some point, you have to go all in poker, especially if you're in a competition. That is unless you've been ahead the whole time and you don't need to go all in (like the 2018 Boston Red Sox). Yes, 2020 will happen, but you know it's almost stupid to be wishy washy about a direction. Who cares if the farm system is weak at the moment? You're talking about a tear down in 2021 if you're risking letting Mookie go to free agency anyways. Still doesn't make sense. Nope.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 6:05:11 GMT -5
System seems poised to make a huge jump in terms of national outlets in the rankings next year. Not there yet, but it will be. Guys like Flores, Gilberto Jimenez, Groome, Mata, Lugo, Decker, Shugart, and of course Casas could change prospective on the Sox farm system real soon. That's a lot of great young talent and most of these guys are already performing in the low levels. There are a few standout tools on this list too. Two clear starting pitchers in Mata and Groome. Two clear short stops in Flores and Lugo. Casas' power. Jimenez's speed. Dalbec's power and arm. I expect Dombrowski to trade someone in the top 10 this trade deadline if the Sox are contending though, and that'll reset this thought, however. Any speculation on who gets traded? And for what? relief? I would think, like you I believe, that the most likely guy would be Dalbec. Because of Devers and Chavis in front and Casas behind. Along with 2 or 3 other 3rd prospects. I think it'll be for Ken Giles. It'll definitely be relief. The Jays would need to throw in 1 million to 1.5 million dollars to make it work for the Sox to stay under the last luxury tax threshold, if the math is correct. I think Dalbec is probably the most likeliest candidate. I would do it, it might hurt by 2021, but you got to do it. Problem with this message board is sometimes people can be wishy washy with the direction they want to see the team go with. Like for me it was either one direction or the other. If they were going to sell, then listen on guys like even Mookie Betts. If you're competing, then don't be afraid to get the last piece and trade top prospects to get that last relief piece. Many people want to see the Sox keep Mookie and compete, while not trading top prospects for anything impactful. That makes no sense to me. It's not just one poster, it's many posters on here that think like this. Either max out this window to win, or reset. That's where you have to go with the luxury tax rules, and how small market teams have a edge in the new CBA, with all the extra competitive balance picks and whatnot.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 5:27:39 GMT -5
System seems poised to make a huge jump in terms of national outlets in the rankings next year. Not there yet, but it will be.
Guys like Flores, Gilberto Jimenez, Groome, Mata, Lugo, Decker, Shugart, and of course Casas could change prospective on the Sox farm system real soon. That's a lot of great young talent and most of these guys are already performing in the low levels. There are a few standout tools on this list too. Two clear starting pitchers in Mata and Groome. Two clear short stops in Flores and Lugo. Casas' power. Jimenez's speed. Dalbec's power and arm.
I expect Dombrowski to trade someone in the top 10 this trade deadline if the Sox are contending though, and that'll reset this thought, however.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 5:13:15 GMT -5
I don't mind Edelman missing time, will force Brady to work with the new guys. We need Brady to connect with another WR in a bad way. They need Edelman healthy in the playoffs, not the pre-season. He has about a decade worth of experience next to Tom Brady and he won't be out of shape I'm 100 percent sure. He could take the whole pre-season as far as I'm concerned. September can be his pre-season where he can take more limited snaps now that he's getting older.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 4:42:11 GMT -5
There are other options. Cora trusts none of them besides Workman. You ride out your best players in the biggest games you need to have. Yesterday was a crucial game with the lead late. Had to win it. It took over 40 pitches for Workman to get pulled. The only solution to this problem is to get someone that's proven to be better than Workman in this bullpen this year. I hear Ken Giles is available and he loves pitching here in Boston. Wink, wink. he can't distrust them completely if after the game he pointed to those guys for tomorrow; they will get opportunities to show they belong in the tougher spots. On Workman: "Tomorrow, he’s going to be down but we’ve got Nate and we’ve got Waldy, Barnesy for one (out), we’ve got Josh Taylor, we’ve got Darwinzon (Hernandez) so that’s the difference compared to early in the season." They will get opportunity eventually. They both are in this bullpen and look like they're here to stay. It doesn't take much to displace Heath Hembree and Colton Brewer ahead in the depth chart. My overall point is that this is going to be a process. Cora is trying to put his players in the best possible position to succeed. Throwing Taylor and Darwinzon in the most important close game of the year so far when they both just got up here? That sounds like throwing your rookie players to the fire. I see a lot of people wanting Darwinzon to get put in that fire like Papelbon was in 2005. What I say to that is that there's only one Papelbon and he's one of the 10 best relievers in MLB history. He was obviously a different personality from the get go. He was a beast that wanted the ball and wasn't afraid of pumping his best fastball in at any part of the zone and could get anyone out on his fastball. He was a fearless competitor, basically. All business on the mound. Darwizon has this same type of stuff, but it's hard to imagine his personality emulating Papelbon. It's hard to imagine most people with that kind of personality. Papelbon was certainly different from the rest. Either way, I expect Cora to favor the veterans first. Heck, even in that quote you just showed me it says that. If you want to read into that quote, the first name that pops up in Cora's head is Eovaldi. The last name to be called out is Darwinzon in his head. You can read into that quote or you don't have to, but it's interesting reading into that and seeing how I think Cora is thinking. Darwinzon could be used tomorrow. Price could be pulled early because of pitch count or a million other reasons. Darwinzon can come in early and have the 5th or 6th inning. When your best reliever is unavailable and your second best reliever in Barnes is available for a out or two, then that limits what you can do. I fully expect Cora to ride out Price to the max tomorrow, just like he did with Sale last night. I then expect he'll go to Barnes for a out and then ride out Eovaldi. Cora might even just let Eovaldi pitch the last 2 innings either way. If Price gives the Sox 7 innings today, I think Cora will be doing jumping jacks in the dugout. If he doesn't, then that's where you can see the likes of Darwinzon and Taylor because you stretched your best reliever in Workman out for the important win last night. As for Darwinzon, he's going to have to earn Cora's trust the next month. He should get there. By September or late August, I think he'll be there in the 8th or 9th innings possibly, if things break right for him. He's still really young (22), no need to rush this.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 0:07:49 GMT -5
They're extending Workman in a game they need to have. It's understandable. Not quite. The result was predictable. Workman pitched multiple innings just a few days ago. The team was fortunate to pull this one out, they were one unlucky bounce from losing it. I'll say this again: burning out the relief corps isn't the way to go. There were other options, and while they might not be perfect they did have that three run lead to work with. There are other options. Cora trusts none of them besides Workman. You ride out your best players in the biggest games you need to have. Yesterday was a crucial game with the lead late. Had to win it. It took over 40 pitches for Workman to get pulled. The only solution to this problem is to get someone that's proven to be better than Workman in this bullpen this year. I hear Ken Giles is available and he loves pitching here in Boston. Wink, wink.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 24, 2019 0:04:12 GMT -5
Josh Taylor had one high leverage situation recently. July 17th. He faced two batters and gave up a homerun and got one out. Cora HAD to immediately go to Workman for a 5 out save. This is the arm you're saying the Sox need to trust more. He's good and he has a place in this bullpen, but I don't see why you need to trust him in spots like that. He's still getting his feet wet in the major leagues right now. Right, you don't put them in 10.0 LI situations in tie games with the bases loaded with Barry Bonds up, but you start putting them in for 3 run leads in the 9th with the bottom of the order up. This isn't that outrageous. It's exactly what he's done with Brasier, Workman and Walden. They were nobodies, they pitched great, they got more leverage and then they were trusted more. Time to do it with Taylor and Darwinzon. I don't blame Alex Cora one bit for not putting rookies into big spots. I have no problem with Cora leaving out a guy like Taylor out of high leverage situations. Low to medium leverage in the 5-7 innings is a perfect role for a guy like Taylor right now as a rookie. Brasier is going to be in Pawtucket until September because his luck wore off from last year. Cora is generally going to trust the guys who have more experience. This is why he kept going back to Nunez and kept going there until he was gone. Taylor and Darwinzon are going to have to absolutely shove in the roles they are given until they get their chance in bigger opportunities, and they can't mess up like with what Taylor did on July 17th. The only way I can see Darwinzon and Taylor getting into big situations like last night is if there are no other options available.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 23, 2019 22:29:05 GMT -5
The fact that he's putting in Walden instead of Darwinzon there tells us all we need to know and where he stands with Darwinzon right now, whether you agree or disagree Jim. I would love to see it too, but I can understand if he's gunshy with the rookie who has 6-10 appearances (less than half coming in the AFL) in a bullpen so far in his total career as a pitcher. Walden had started to pitch better and this game gave him reason to stop pushing him back to high leverage. Next time it's Darwinzon (but with clean innings). Josh Taylor deserves more leverage as well. Josh Taylor had one high leverage situation recently. July 17th. He faced two batters and gave up a homerun and got one out. Cora HAD to immediately go to Workman for a 5 out save. This is the arm you're saying the Sox need to trust more. He's good and he has a place in this bullpen, but I don't see why you need to trust him in spots like that. He's still getting his feet wet in the major leagues right now.
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