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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 7, 2020 19:20:53 GMT -5
Not everything is has to be a binary on/off switch. I know that a Betts signing carries risk, I just don't think it's particularly more risky than spreading the money around to several lesser players. That goes against the history of the game though. Nothing is more risky than years, espically when were talking like 12-13 years at huge money, like 20% of the payroll. If you're ok with that, that's 100% fine. Yet let's not act like it's even close to the same as signing ERod for five years or guys like him. The equal risk is giving ERod nine or ten years. Dude, hit me with the long range projections or there's nothing to talk about here. We do not agree. That's fine, but you're not moving me off my position without some kind of genuine data to support your assertions.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 7, 2020 17:46:08 GMT -5
That makes zero sense. Let's worry about other players declining, but act like Betts never will. It's the ultimate homer take because you want to keep him, not that I don't. Yet I'm trying to look at this rationally. Not everything is has to be a binary on/off switch. I know that a Betts signing carries risk, I just don't think it's particularly more risky than spreading the money around to several lesser players.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 7, 2020 13:58:29 GMT -5
he literally just won a World Series w borderline magical decisions. Pinch hitting Nunez? That’s some sorcery ...huh
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 7, 2020 8:49:31 GMT -5
So we should worry about ERods down years on like a 5 year deal, but not Betts on a crazy long deal? Yes. I know.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 7, 2020 6:42:11 GMT -5
I am not one of those "everyone on th' Yankees is overrated baseball writers are so biased omg" people, by any means. So please understand that it's a considered opinion when I say that if Greg Bird had been an Arizona Diamondback, nobody would have heard of him outside of Maricopa County. He popped a silly HR/FB in a small sample five years ago for a name franchise in a pennant race when Mark Teixeira broke, and has done zero since. .194/.287/.388 post-2015. Away from Yankee Stadium? .162/.257/.290 after '15, with as many GIDP as homers. I actually think the Bird hype was pretty legit, his upper minors numbers were solid, and a 20% HR/FB rate was pretty expected for a lefty who pulled the ball in the air as much as he did in that stadium. But here's his games (majors and minors combined) played since that season: 2016: 0 2017: 69 2018: 94 2019: 10 Critically, 2016 was a shoulder injury, and he hasn't been remotely the same guy since.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 6, 2020 19:09:07 GMT -5
Greg Bird hasn't been a passable major leaguer since 2015.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 6, 2020 13:22:47 GMT -5
What doesn't really get mentioned a lot is pivoting instead to giving the cash to an extension to Devers with Betts more than likely ending up with 30-35m+ after 2020. Even attempting to lock up ERod with just 2y left of team control. Betts may be one of the best in the league, but how will the Sox keep him and everyone? it's not going to work. Devers and Erod are young also. Think striking on 1 .. Maybe both of them if both Price and him are moved is why reporters are coming up with that theory, even if it could/is outlandish. My thoughts are more along Betts moved separately. See this is what kills me, people are worried about Mookie's potential contract because the $375m or whatever top line is such a large scary number. But you burn through $375m so quickly by giving extensions to mid-rotation guys like Eduardo Rodriguez. I like Eduardo a lot, but it's not so hard to find the next Eduardo that you need to be spending $85m to keep him into his decline years. Finding the next Betts by comparison is just next to impossible. Actually, it occurs to me that if people really want Bloom to get "creative" to solve this get-better-but-also-get-cheaper challenge he's been issued, Eduardo might actually be the guy to move. "Creative" can't just mean "get some team to pay way too much for David Price", if you want to really act like a smart Rays/As type team, you have to sell high on guys from time to time. If there's going to be a salary crunch, I'd rather cash in the off-injured pitcher who's about to start getting expensive than a guy who's irreplaceable at any cost.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 5, 2020 19:42:10 GMT -5
There is a trend towards guys moving faster but even so, if the scouting report literally said "this guy is the next Juan Soto", that timetable would still be like 50/50 at best.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 4, 2020 11:34:01 GMT -5
Brock Holt is four years younger and more versatile, so he should outpace this easily. Holt is 2 years, 6 months younger. Cabrera has also exceeded 500 plate appearances every year since 2010.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 3, 2020 17:09:41 GMT -5
Why? That's like the dumbest contract of all time. I'm only being slightly sarcastic. He struck out 39.8% of the time last season and has been worth -1.5 fWAR in the last 2 seasons. Minor league depth must be getting really expensive. Have you seen how much playing time they've given to Ian Desmond? They love negative WAR!
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 3, 2020 16:58:48 GMT -5
Guys, stop using past WAR totals. It's not how teams value these players. They pay for the projections, so start with those (spoiler, Price's are much better).
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 2, 2020 17:36:40 GMT -5
You’re right... pitchers report soon— don’t you think that suggests teams with pitching needs are going to get very anxious very soon? The Sox were never gonna get a decent deal as long as other options remained in free agency. Now that those options have become very shallow, teams are going to circle back to the Sox. Unloading Price for a reasonable deal was always going to take time and patience. The only reason we need to “pick a path” right now would be to satisfy certain impatient members of the baseball writing community— that’s hardly a reason to do it. I know that spring training isn't really the time for a big trade, but I do kind of wonder if getting the best return on Price means waiting until other teams can see him on a mound and looking healthy again.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 2, 2020 14:19:36 GMT -5
Donaldson, man. Price could even come in a little under the $23m AAV they're not giving him anymore. And I still think the Twins and White Sox should be on the list. Donaldson was a one year flier with absolutely no risk and all the upside. If Donaldson stays injured, they're only in it for 23 million for one year. The Price thing is the exact opposite. I'm not sure the math works out on three being the "exact opposite" of one but I'll take your word for it.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 2, 2020 10:41:11 GMT -5
Giants are in full rebuild mode. The bottom 3 team's have the money, but won't spend it. Braves, Blue Jays, Brewers. Brewers just cut payroll. Blue Jays already added guys. The Braves haven't spent any money on anyone (besides homegrown talent) for as long as I can remember now.Angels and Dodgers are the best bet, but it's a coin flip if they actually do it considering it will out them both over the CBT. Hope Bloom can pull it off. Donaldson, man. Price could even come in a little under the $23m AAV they're not giving him anymore. And I still think the Twins and White Sox should be on the list.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 31, 2019 14:42:28 GMT -5
*rubs temples* If you think a team would ever want Price for the $60m-ish million everyone seems to be expecting someone to pay for him, why would two guys like Hill and Bailey move the needle on that? If the Twins ever valued Price close to what people expect them to pay, why would they let two guys they clearly value much less (including the most injury prone guy in the league!) get in the way? They still just have Berrios, Odorizzi, and like... guys. It's a valid question. The 2020 commitment they made to these two pitchers (such as they are) including incentives is about what they presumably would have to pay to get Price. Given that we're talking about the Twins, it's very reasonable to think that they're maxed out and it was an either/or scenario.They have almost nothing committed beyond 2020 though. It'd be a pretty sad state of affairs if they can't bump the payroll up for even one year to capitalize on the window that they've waited so long for.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 31, 2019 14:34:38 GMT -5
He’s going to end up missing half the season at least. And he’s 39 coming off a surgery on his pitching elbow. Yes, I know all of that. $3M is worth, like, 0.4 WAR. He could make his minimum guarantee back in one start. He got $500K guaranteed more than the Indians gave Sandy Leon. They signed a potential impact pitcher for the downside risk of a backup. Seems like the new trend in the market is that the WAR/$ curve is getting less linear.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 31, 2019 13:44:24 GMT -5
With the Twins signing Homer Bailey and Rich Hill today, I'm guessing there's another team removed from a landing spot for Price. *rubs temples* If you think a team would ever want Price for the $60m-ish million everyone seems to be expecting someone to pay for him, why would two guys like Hill and Bailey move the needle on that? If the Twins ever valued Price close to what people expect them to pay, why would they let two guys they clearly value much less (including the most injury prone guy in the league!) get in the way? They still just have Berrios, Odorizzi, and like... guys.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 31, 2019 13:18:50 GMT -5
Rivera was better but Wagner was more influential.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 31, 2019 12:18:21 GMT -5
Papelbon was a college reliever/closer at Mississippi State who the Red Sox were converting to a starting pitcher while in the minors. Based on his comments, he preferred and felt more comfortable as a closer. He also did walk seven and a half batters per nine innings last year. I like the guy but if anything he's more of a middle innings guy who's used in situations where you'd rather give up the walk than the hit.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 29, 2019 11:28:21 GMT -5
Mancini has actually had a better than league average K rate the last couple years, which with his power puts him in a tier above your sorta Cron/Smoak/etc DFA fodder guys. With the budget situation right now I don't see it happening, but if they do manage to resolve that issue somehow, Mancini is an interesting target, maybe even as a JDM replacement
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 29, 2019 11:08:41 GMT -5
Why, though...? Wanting to get what they're worth according to the market is a strange thing to hold against a player. I don't think it's holding anything against the player....Get what you can get if that's the primary motivation. The issue is that paying such a sum over many years can hamstring the team as a whole. Look where we are with our starters and payroll. Nate Eovaldi at $17m AAV hamstrings you. Mookie is the franchise.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 29, 2019 8:13:45 GMT -5
Those guys are getting 73 million/year combined. Next year Steamer projects them for 13.2 WAR - about $5.6 million per WAR. If you could sign Betts at that rate, that'd be pretty great! Also I don't know why you assume he'll get 13 years as a 28 year old. Harper got that as a 26 year old. Trout got 12 years as a 27 year old. I'd expect 10-11 years for Mookie. I also have come to the conclusion that NO ONE is worth that kind of contract that cripples a team financially. Maybe Trout, but even there one player does not win a championship. I have, a lot, of trouble even with 10 years for $350 mill, and if he can't be satisfied with that...move him. Are people just literally afraid of large numbers? Imagine how freaked out you'd all be if we were giving these contracts out in Yen. 10/400 is not crazy for a huge market team signing literally the best player you can sign. Like what part of Mookie being better and younger and more consistent than every other other player you could possibly acquire are you people not getting? The Yankees can afford Gerrit Cole. Everyone's cool with Boston playing second fiddle to them financially while our owner can clearly afford to match what they're doing?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 28, 2019 16:29:51 GMT -5
Remember when everyone roasted for Rays for DFAing this guy?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 28, 2019 14:29:56 GMT -5
Agreed. What's the goal of any sports team? To win everything, always or at least as often as possible. Aside from Mike Trout, there's arguably no other player in baseball that brings you closer to that goal than Mookie. It would be a thing if they were trading from a surplus, like they have another young OF who's really good and they badly need a couple of starters and a 2B to compete. Then you consider it in order to make your team stronger. But that's not the discussion here. Mookie Betts was the best player in the best team of the century, we're not going to simply replace that by spending the "money wisely". When there's no replacement for a guy, the only reasonable thing to do is keep him. Are the Red Sox at any risk of going bankrupt? The Mookie contract could lead to an irreversible deficit? Then we have no reason to simply accept this nonsense. No one would even be worried about this if Dombrowski hadn't made a Ryan Howard-level foreseeable mistake on the Eovaldi contract. I understand that you have to deal with that reality now, but Mookie Betts is not the guy blowing up your budget.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 28, 2019 10:57:19 GMT -5
We may regret not resigning Mookie....for a few years. Perhaps the return plus the freed up cash will help to offset the loss. What are you going to spend it on, more Nate Eovaldis and Pablo Sandovals? People talk about how expensive Mookie is going to be, but look at the landscape of expensive players. Mookie is not going to cost the much more than Gerrit Cole, and who would you rather have? It's not even close. There's not a better place to spend Mookie's money than Mookie. And before someone says Devers, the Red Sox should be thinking about how they keep the Devers/Betts/Bogaerts core together as long as possible and every other decision should be in service of that goal.
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